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Home / Archives for August 14, 2024
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August 14, 2024

The FedEx St. Jude Championship marks the beginning of the FedExCup Playoffs, bringing together the top 70 players from the PGA Tour’s season-long points race. Set at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, this event promises intense competition on a course known for its strategic demands and challenging water hazards. Players like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy will be looking to solidify their standing as they chase the ultimate prize of the FedExCup, with crucial points on the line in this no-cut event. As the first playoff event, the St. Jude Championship sets the tone, with every stroke potentially making or breaking a player’s season. The top 50 after this week’s tournament qualify for the BMW Championship, as well as guaranteeing entry to all the big money Signature Events in 2025.

This year’s field is stacked with elite talent, all vying for a chance to advance to the BMW Championship and ultimately to the TOUR Championship in Atlanta. TPC Southwind’s tight fairways and small greens demand precision, making it a course where both ball-striking and short game skills are critical. The course has historically favored accurate players, but with so much on the line, expect the competition to be fierce from the first tee. Fans will be eagerly watching to see if a top contender can continue their dominant season or if an underdog can rise to the occasion and make a deep playoff run.

Here are Win Daily Sports Experts’ picks for this week’s tourney:

.
David
Bieleski
Sia
Nejad
Spencer
Aguiar
Steven
Polardi

StixPicks
Outright WinnerAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Morikawa
Matsuyama
Conners
Sungjae Im
Lowry
Eckroat
Ludvig Aberg
Hideki
Viktor Hovland
Wyndham Clark
Sahith Theegala
McNealy
Henley
Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Cam Young
Top Finishes MarketsTop 20
Conners
Sungjae Im
Lowry
Eckroat

Top 30
Eckroat
Top 20
Conners
Rai
Top 20
Morikawa
Griffen
Pendrith
Top 20
Cam Young
Match-UpsConners over Hovland (-125)Conners -110 over Finau
Griffin -115 over Rose
First-Round LeaderAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Matsuyama 33/1
Tom Kim 40/1
Hughes 80/1
Morikawa
Fleetwood
Tom Kim
Pendrith
Clark
Hovland
Hideki
Hughes
Pendrith
EVR
Grillo
DFS Plays I ❤️ Tom Kim
Sungjae Im
Lowry
Bezuidenhout
Noren
Eckroat
Hughes
Power
Ludvig AbergMcNealy
Morikawa
Aberg
Griffin
Morikawa
Young
Finau
DFS Chalk I'm playingScheffler
Morikawa
Matsuyama
Conners
SchefflerHideki Matsuyama
Corey Conners
Scheffler
Morikawa
Aberg
DFS Chalk I'm fadingHenley
Clark
Cole
MorikawaTony FinauLowry

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It’s that time. Every December NFL DFS players salivate over the playoffs. As Golf DFS fans, we get to scream at our screens when someone does a quad bogey coming in with a four shot lead. I won’t mention any names (Greyserman) but an extra 2K would have worked. There are 70 of the top golfers vying for a spot in the top 50 and then 30 to get to East Lake. This is a no cut event as opposed to the 125 player format with a cut. Some of the nuances might seem trivial although some may and will be crucial. The FedEx Ownership Projections are motivated to making you a smarter and wealthier DFS player.

Win Daily Sports golf team works tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The PGA Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

This course depends on approach over any other metric. It’s your typical TPC layout with the exception of water hazards on 12 holes and tiny fairways with minimal width. It ranked 7th out of 45 for difficulty last year That tells us accuracy and SGOT will be weight bearing. Sometimes the need for water hazards takes away from creative shot thinking, at least that’s what the course presents. This is Bermuda rough, make sure your teams do OK hitting out of it. We have the following with that criteria in our pool—Scheff and Xander of course, Deki, JT, Finau, Aberg, Rory, T Kim, Harman, Straka, Griffin and Henley —More will be added/deleted once ownership comes out.

Recent Results

THE Frisky Risky Biscuit! Last week the Frisky Biscuit missed the cut on the number while our other play made the cut and brought great value (R Moore). Our Frisky Biscuits record is now 37-9 for a 5-6K golfer at 5% or under ownership to make the cut. From January to this week we are hitting 82% of our selections. Last week we hit the outright winner on our Win Daily Expert sheet. Our Biscuit picks and others will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord Golf channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is currently slated to be hot, humid and relatively calm as far as winds. If you must seek an edge I would go Thursday am/ Friday pm due to the fact that Friday afternoon winds will be less gusty than early morning. It’s a small lean. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord this evening for more comprehensive reports from Deep Dive Dave.

Let’s take a look at the FedEx Ownership Projections to create leverage and increase your ROI.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie32.712400
Morikawa, Collin22.610000
Schauffele, Xander21.311400
McIlroy, Rory19.911100
Henley, Russell17.29000
Matsuyama, Hideki15.99300
Conners, Corey15.69100
Cantlay, Patrick15.49700
Im, Sungjae14.78700
Rai, Aaron14.48200
Aberg, Ludvig13.810200
Thomas, Justin13.28400
Kim, Tom 12.78900
Thompson, Davis 12.67400
Fleetwood, Tommy12.49800
Finau, Tony11.98800
Horschel, Billy11.68500
Straka, Sepp11.37400
Hovland, Viktor11.19500
Scott,Adam10.87700
Burns, Sam10.38300
Theegala, Sahith9.98600
Lowry, Shane9.68000
Cole, Eric9.56700
Griffin, Ben9.26600
Harman, Brian9.17600
Greyserman, Max8.96900
Young, Cameron8.88100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan8.57300
Clark, Wyndham8.47900
Bhatia, Akshay 8.37300
Eckroat, Austin 7.96300
Noren, Alexander7.87200
Bradley, Keegan7.77000
Hoge, Tom7.56800
Kim, Si Woo7.47200
Homa, Max6.97500
McNealy, Maverick6.86900
Todd, Brendon6.76100
Power, Seamus6.66100
Spieth, Jordan6.47700
Pendrith, Taylor 6.37100
Perez, Victor 6.36400
Day, Jason6.27500
Davis, Cameron6.26800
Poston,  JT6.16600
Hadwin, Adam6.16300
An, Byeong5.97600
Hughes, Mackenzie5.86200
Kirk, Chris5.56200
McCarthy, Denny5.46500
Zalatoris,Will5.37000
Moore, Taylor5.26400
Detry,Thomas 4.86900
Vegas, Jhonattan4.76500
MacIntyre, Robert 4.67100
Fitzpatrick, Mathew4.57800
Lee, Min Woo4.57000
English, Harris4.56800
Grillo, Emiliano4.56200
Van Rooyen, Erik4.46400
Hubbard, Mark4.46300
Rose, Justin4.36600
Taylor, Nick4.26000
Rodgers, Patrick4.06100
Jaeger, Stephan 3.46500
Dunlap,  Nick 2.36700
Pavon, Matthieu1.76700
Knapp, Jake1.46000
Malnati, Peter1.36000

These FedEx Ownership Projections are accurate as of 5:18 EST. Top tier golfers will show a higher % by lock.

Our top pivots for leverage are: Deki, Conners, Burns, Bhatia and MacIntyre

My Picks for The FedEx

Top Tier: Scheffler/ Cantlay

Mid Tier: Scott/ Harman

Low Tier: S Kim/ Bradley

Out in Left Play: Kirk/ Dunlap

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Harman

FR Leader: McNealy (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, and 10, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the sometime surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 9:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave continues to produce picks and winners. Stix Picks continues to pick outliers. They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports, Sia and Joel aka Draft Master Flex.

***** Parting Shots *****

A large Texan with a ten gallon hat and a huge belt buckle strolls into a bank with his alligator boots, walks up to the teller and says. “I’d like to open myself a damn bank account!” The prim and proper teller says, “I BEG your pardon?” The Texan looked at her, I SAID I need to open a GD F*cking bank account!!” The Teller covers her mouth then says coldly, “One moment please.” She returns with the bank manager and a smirk on her face. ‘What’s the problem here sir, what is going on?” “Well. I was just tellin’ the little lady here I want to open a GD f*cking bank account for 10 million dollars!” The bank manager looks him square in the eye and says, “Sir, was that bitch rude to you?’

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Hump day!  It’s Wednesday and we have ourselves a pretty large slate considering the day of the week.  Thankfully, the sites adjusted and the main slate will start at 6:35 tonight.  We have an 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  We are in the tough part of the year.  Pitching recently has been even crazier than normal, with large fluctuations in performance.  We have a slate tonight that’s really void of any true ace.  That said, we do have some really solid arms in great spots. 


Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ronel Blanco ($9.3k on DK) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This year’s version of the Rays has been a complete 180 from what we’ve seen over the past few years.  They currently sit a game under .500 and it will be a battle between them and the Blue Jays for last in the AL East.  Gone are Aroz and Isaac Parades.  With just 463 runs scored this season, they sit in the bottom 3 in baseball in terms of run scored.  Against righties this season, they have been terrible.  They have just a .662 OPS and a wOBA of just .293. 

For Blanco, there are definitely strikeouts to be had tonight.  5 of the 9 hitters in the projected lineup tonight have a K rate over 25% vs. righties this season.  If we look at what Blanco has done over the last 30 days, he’s been mostly strong.  Although the ERA is high at 5.68, his xFIP and SIERA both sit around 2 runs lower at 3.6.  He’s due for some positive regression and it should come against a lineup that has struggled.  He’s hit at least 5 K’s in 7 of his last 8 games.  There’s no reason to think he can’t get more than tonight.  He’s my SP1 tonight. 

Robbie Ray ($8.6k on DK) vs. Atlanta Braves

Over the last 2 nights, we’ve seen the Braves get tsruck out 11 times by Blake Snell and 6 times last night by Kyle Harrison.  I’m expecting something in the middle of that tonight.  The question with Robbie Ray is always which Robbie Ray will show up.  He’s essentially a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of pitcher.  There are going to be games where he has no idea where the ball is going and there will be games where he looks like the Cy Young Award winning pitcher that he is. 

With a struggling Atlanta Braves lineup in the matchup, I’m going to put odds on him having a Cy Young-level performance tonight.  Even though he’s been up and down in terms of performance, he still has struck out at least 7 in 3 of the 4 outings so far this season.  He’s been under 18 DK points in just one.  This is an exploitable spot for the Giants’ southpaw tonight.  He’ll be my SP2. 

He’s not currently in my top 2 as I write this, but I also really like Jose Berrios here against the Angels.  He’s a frustrating pitcher who could easily get tagged for a bunch of runs.  But thanks to his ability to get hitters to chase, he can also get us upwards of 30 DK points.  We saw Guasman have a really strong outing vs. them last night and no reason to think Berrios can’t do the same.  Other pitchers in my pool will be Bryan Woo vs. Detroit and maybe Tyler Anderson vs. Toronto. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. David Martin

I’ve been trying to avoid writing the Yanks as the top stack, but it’s just impossible tonight.  They get a matchup vs. the Davis Martin and an atrocious bullpen.  Martin hasn’t been terrible this year in his 3 starts.  He hasn’t really been tested that much though.  He’s coming off a 6-inning solid performance against an inconsistent A’s team.  The one time he was tested this season was against the Twins and he proceeded to give up 4 ER in just 3 innings of work.  Thanks to a terrible bullpen, the final score in that matchup was 10-2 in favor of the Twins. 

I would not be shocked to see that happen again tonight.  I’m going to focus on the righties here.  So far this season, righties have a .261 ISO and a .421 wOBA.  It’s a small sample size, but if we look at his career as a whole (still a very small sample) righties have done better vs. him.

The big dilemma here will be Soto or Judge.  Tbh, you can’t go wrong with either.  I think that Judge comes in at a lower ownership tonight for a few reasons.  He’s not the one who hit 3 homers last night, he’s more expensive, and he doesn’t get the platoon advantage.  Because of that, I’m going to side with him here.  But again, you can’t go wrong with either. 

Other bats I’ll look to get into my Yankees stack will be Austin WellsGiancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.  Alex Verdugo is also a nice piece here.  He’s just $3.5k on DK and almost always puts the ball in play.  It’s just going to be a matter of the BABIP gods being in his favor.  Fit any and all Yanks as you see fit.  They should score a bunch of runs.

Oakland A’s vs. David Peterson

After jumping into the Wild Card lead a few weeks ago, all has completely fallen apart for my New York Mets. They aren’t scoring runs and they are giving up a ton.  Since Friday, they’ve given up 31 runs in 4 games and have scored just 5 themselves.  They are a mess right now and I’m going to attack them with what is a very inconsistent lineup for the A’s. 

We’ve seen them on a bunch of occasions put up a ton of runs and I think they do it again here vs. a struggling pitcher in David Peterson.  Peterson is normally a headcase on the mound.  He will show flashes of greatness, but in a moment’s notice will fall completely apart.  He’ll face an A’s team that is very competent vs. southpaws. 

Core Plays: Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Plays: JJ Bleday

Value Plays: Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron

Other Stacks I like tonight will be the Phillies vs. Edward Cabrera, Guardians vs. Jameson Taillon, Cubs vs. Alex Cobb, Dodgers vs. Frankie Montas, and Marlins vs. Tyler Phillips. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 1.5 hits,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 1.5 hits. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.

These are the highest percentage win rates of the top MLB player props today.

These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.

Now to see the hand selected MLB player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.

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In a surprising turn of events, DraftKings has decided to abandon its proposed tax surcharge on winning sports bets in four states. The decision came after significant customer backlash, highlighting the company’s commitment to prioritizing user satisfaction.

“We always listen to our customers, and after hearing their feedback, we have decided not to move forward with the gaming tax surcharge. We are always committed to delivering the best value in the industry to our loyal customers,” DraftKings announced via social media and an official company statement.

The announcement about the tax surcharge was initially made during DraftKings’ Q2 revenue reports on August 1. The company cited the need to recoup losses in states where sports betting taxes are higher than the national average. The surcharge was to be implemented in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, and Vermont to achieve an operational effective tax rate of approximately 20%.

This plan was quickly met with opposition from customers and industry stakeholders. Prominent professional sports bettor and co-founder of Unabated, Captain Jack Andrews, voiced his discontent on social media platform X:

“If you bet in IL, NY, PA, or VT get a load of this. DraftKings will be adding a SURCHARGE to be subtracted from YOUR net winnings to pay for THEIR TAX on gambling revenue. The money they make from losing bettors. Wow. Just wow.”

Other major players in the industry were quick to distance themselves from similar measures. Rush Street Interactive (RSI), the parent company of BetRivers, was the first to publicly declare it would not implement a tax surcharge on winning sports bets. RSI CEO Richard Schwartz stated, “As we put our customers first, it was an easy decision for us.”

Following RSI’s stance, PENN Entertainment and Flutter also confirmed they had no plans to introduce a tax surcharge on winning bets in any state. Flutter CEO Peter Jackson emphasized during the company’s earnings call, “We have no plans to institute a surcharge for winners.”

Similarly, PENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden remarked that while the surcharge was an “interesting” idea, the company would not be implementing it.

Although DraftKings has scrapped the tax surcharge plan, it is anticipated that the company will explore other cost-saving strategies. Possible measures include cutting promotional spending or reducing offers to players in New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Vermont to offset the high tax rates.

FanDuel is likely to adopt a similar approach, particularly in Illinois starting in 2025. During today’s earnings call, Jackson mentioned, “Our experience is that moderating levels of generosity and reducing local marketing is the best response.”

Jackson criticized the graduated tax rate, describing it as “wrong” and arguing that it unfairly penalizes operators who have heavily invested to build a customer base. He noted that most states manage to find a balance that promotes growth and financial stability.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel are facing a 40% tax rate in Illinois, the highest in the state, applied based on their monthly sports betting performance.

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How to Bet on the NFL: Tips for Choosing the Right Sportsbook

Choosing the right sportsbook is a crucial step in your NFL betting journey. The right sportsbook can enhance your betting experience, offer competitive odds, and ensure that your funds are secure. This guide will provide you with essential tips on how to select the best sportsbook for NFL betting.

Key Factors to Consider

  1. Reputation and Reliability
  2. Betting Odds and Lines
  3. Bonuses and Promotions
  4. Betting Markets and Options
  5. User Interface and Experience
  6. Payment Methods
  7. Customer Service
  8. Mobile Compatibility
  9. Security and Licensing
  10. Reviews and Recommendations

1. Reputation and Reliability

Importance: A sportsbook’s reputation is a strong indicator of its reliability and trustworthiness.

Tips:

  • Research Online: Look for reviews and ratings from other bettors.
  • Check Forums: Visit sports betting forums to see what other users are saying about the sportsbook.
  • Longevity: Prefer sportsbooks that have been in the business for several years and have a proven track record.

Example: Sportsbooks like BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings are well-known for their reliability and solid reputations.

2. Betting Odds and Lines

Importance: Competitive odds and favorable lines can significantly impact your potential winnings.

Tips:

  • Compare Odds: Use odds comparison websites to see which sportsbooks offer the best odds for NFL games.
  • Look for Reduced Juice: Some sportsbooks offer reduced juice (lower vigorish), which can save you money in the long run.

Example: If one sportsbook offers the New England Patriots at -110 and another at -105, the latter offers better value for the same bet.

3. Bonuses and Promotions

Importance: Bonuses and promotions can provide extra value and boost your bankroll.

Tips:

  • Welcome Bonuses: Look for generous welcome bonuses, such as deposit matches or free bets.
  • Ongoing Promotions: Check for regular promotions, such as reload bonuses, cashback offers, and loyalty programs.
  • Read the Terms: Always read the terms and conditions to understand the wagering requirements and other restrictions.

Example: A sportsbook might offer a 100% match on your first deposit up to $500, but it’s essential to understand the wagering requirements attached to this bonus.

4. Betting Markets and Options

Importance: A diverse range of betting markets allows you to explore different types of bets and find value.

Tips:

  • Range of Bets: Ensure the sportsbook offers a wide variety of NFL bets, including moneyline, point spread, totals, props, and futures.
  • Live Betting: Look for sportsbooks that offer in-game betting options.
  • Special Bets: Check for unique betting options, such as parlays, teasers, and round robins.

Example: BetMGM is known for its extensive range of prop bets for NFL games.

5. User Interface and Experience

Importance: A user-friendly interface makes the betting process smoother and more enjoyable.

Tips:

  • Ease of Navigation: Choose a sportsbook with a clean, intuitive layout that makes it easy to find and place bets.
  • Speed: Ensure the website or app loads quickly and performs well.
  • Features: Look for useful features such as live streaming, in-game stats, and cash-out options.

Example: FanDuel’s app is praised for its sleek design and easy navigation.

6. Payment Methods

Importance: Convenient and secure payment options are essential for managing your betting funds.

Tips:

  • Variety of Options: Choose a sportsbook that offers multiple payment methods, including credit/debit cards, e-wallets (like PayPal), and bank transfers.
  • Withdrawal Speed: Check how quickly the sportsbook processes withdrawals.
  • Fees: Be aware of any fees associated with deposits or withdrawals.

Example: DraftKings offers a variety of payment methods and typically processes withdrawals within a few days.

7. Customer Service

Importance: Responsive and helpful customer service can assist you with any issues or questions that arise.

Tips:

  • Availability: Look for sportsbooks with 24/7 customer support.
  • Contact Methods: Ensure there are multiple ways to contact support, such as live chat, email, and phone.
  • Response Time: Test the response time of the customer service team.

Example: BetMGM provides 24/7 support via live chat, email, and phone.

8. Mobile Compatibility

Importance: Mobile compatibility is crucial for betting on the go.

Tips:

  • App Availability: Check if the sportsbook offers a mobile app for your device (iOS or Android).
  • Mobile Site: Ensure the mobile site is user-friendly and performs well.
  • Features: The mobile platform should offer the same features as the desktop version, including live betting and account management.

Example: The FanDuel app is highly rated for its functionality and ease of use on mobile devices.

9. Security and Licensing

Importance: Security and proper licensing protect your funds and personal information.

Tips:

  • Licensing: Ensure the sportsbook is licensed and regulated by a reputable authority.
  • Security Measures: Look for SSL encryption and other security protocols to protect your data.
  • Fair Play: Choose sportsbooks that are transparent about their operations and have a good reputation for fair play.

Example: BetMGM is licensed and regulated by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, ensuring a secure betting environment.

10. Reviews and Recommendations

Importance: Reviews and recommendations can provide insights into a sportsbook’s reliability and user experience.

Tips:

  • Expert Reviews: Read reviews from reputable sources in the sports betting industry.
  • User Reviews: Check feedback from other bettors on forums and review sites.
  • Recommendations: Ask for recommendations from friends or other bettors you trust.

Example: Checking user reviews on sites like Trustpilot can give you a better idea of a sportsbook’s reputation.

Conclusion

Choosing the right sportsbook is a crucial step for any NFL bettor. By considering factors such as reputation, odds, bonuses, betting options, user experience, payment methods, customer service, mobile compatibility, security, and reviews, you can find a sportsbook that meets your needs and enhances your betting experience. Remember to bet responsibly and enjoy the thrill of NFL betting.

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