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July 30, 2024

This week’s men’s golf competition at the 2024 Paris Olympics is the third time the sport has been featured in the Summer Games since 1904, and it promises to be the most competitive and highly anticipated tournament in 120 years. Unlike previous Olympics affected by the Zika virus in 2016 and COVID-19 in 2020 (held in 2021), this year’s event boasts an open field with top players. Xander Schauffele, the 2021 gold medalist and recent winner of the PGA Championship and Open Championship, is a strong contender but not the favorite. That honor goes to the world’s No. 1 player, Scottie Scheffler. As 60 golfers prepare to compete just outside of Paris, the stage is set for an exciting and memorable tournament.

Here are Win Daily Experts’ picks for this week’s tourney.

.
David
Bieleski
Sia
Nejad
Spencer
Aguiar
Joel
Schreck
Steven
Polardi
Outright WinnerAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Morikawa
Tom Kim
Matsuyama
Conners
Straka
Valimaki
Jon RahmSchauffele
Aberg
Tom Kim
Rahm
Top Finishes MarketsTop 20
Straka
Valimaki
Top 20
Victor Perez
Top 20
Manassero
Top 20
Straka
Match-UpsFitzpatrick over Min Woo ($1.83 Bet365)
Morikawa over Aberg ($1.80 Bet365)
Morikawa (-130) over AbergAncer over Ortiz
First-Round LeaderAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Tom Kim 28/1
Matsuyama 33/1
Straka 33/1
Shane Lowry +3000
Tom Kim +3000
Sepp Straka +3500
Sami Valimaki +9000
All with FD
Aberg
Matsuyama
CT Pan
Sharma
DFS Plays I ❤️ Fleetwood
Tom Kim
Conners
Matsuyama
Straka
Olesen
Manassero
Valimaki
Green
Sepp Straka
Viktor Hovland
Manassero
Valimaki
Matsuyama
Straka
T Kim
DFS Chalk I'm playingScheffler
Schauffele
Morikawa
Noren
Jon RahmScheffler
Schauffele
Morikawa
Lowry
DFS Chalk I'm fadingAncer
Migliozzi
Jaeger
Ventura
Scheffler

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It only comes along once every 4 years, so of course we are back to cover the 2024 Olympics Men’s Golf with our LIVE PGA Draft Cast!

We hit 80/1 winner Johnny Vegas last week at the 3M Open!
Our resident golf analyst and man from the future, David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf), is on a HUGE hot streak.
With the Olympics Golf played at Le Golf National, David’s expertise from the DP World Tour will prove extremely valuable this week.
In the last 5 weeks alone, his picks have returned an ROI of +117%.

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Taco Tuesday!  Tonight we have ourselves a massive 11-game slate of MLB DFS.  Tonight we’ll need to treat MLB DFS like NBA DFS as it’s Deadline Day!  We’ll need to be glued to our phones as trades will have a huge impact on our lineups. Thankfully the deadline is a full hour before the main slate starts. 

Back to the controllables, this slate looks to be a fun one.  We have Robbie Ray making his second appearance of the season, and if it’s anything like his first, we’ll want to make sure we have him as our SP1.  This slate also has a ton of great spots for offense. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Robbie Ray ($8.2k on DK) vs. Oakland Athletics

He’s back!  Robbie Ray returned last week and showed that he still has all the talent in the world that helped him win the 2021 Cy Young Award.  In that outing, he proceeded to strike out 8 Dodgers en route to a 26 DK-point outing.  He gets a much easier task tonight as he faces off against the Oakland Athletics.  While the A’s have been playing better of late, they are still a team with a 24% K rate vs. lefties this season.  They have 4 guys in this lineup that have at least a 30% K rate vs. lefties this season. 

There’s also a very real chance that the heart and soul of this lineup, Brent Rooker, gets traded prior to this game, completely eliminating his power from this lineup.  I’m going to be locking in Robbie Ray as my SP1.  It’s only a matter of time before his price goes back to its rightful place around $10k. 

Hunter Brown ($9k on DK) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Next up for me today will be Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros.  Brown has been very strong of late, with an ERA of 3 over the last month and an xFIP just a smidge higher at 3.67.  He’s coming into this in peak form, having been over 20 DK points in 2 straight and 7 of his last 9 games.  While he’s only been above 30 DK points once this season, he’s been an extremely reliable arm for us and more often than not has been in the mid-20-point range. 

He gets a solid matchup vs. an average Pirates lineup.  On the year, the Pirates have been weak against righties.  They have a 24% K rate vs. them and just a .653 OPS.  They just haven’t been hitting for much power vs. righties, making this pick of Brown a mostly safe one at a very reasonable price for the type of production we’ve been seeing from him.  With

If I was picking a starter out of the arms we have tonight to start a playoff game, Tyler Glasnow would be at the top of the list.  For the purposes of DFS though, he is not.  He’s still in play but he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate and he lacks the upside I’m looking for out of a $10k pitcher.  Other arms I am interested in are going to be Luis Castillo vs. Boston, Michael Wacha vs. Chicago, and Justin Steele vs. Cincy.  More than likely though, I’m not straying from Ray/Brown.    

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin and the Nationals bullpen

I added in the bullpen blurb because the Nats bullpen has been atrocious of late.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Nats bullpen has an ERA of 5.54 and an xFIP of 4.63 which also indicates that it is bad.  Ok, back to Corbin.  You all know I love stacking against him.  I haven’t done it as much this season because tbh, he hasn’t been as bad as he normally is.  That said, this matchup is about as bad for Corbin as there possibly is. 

The way you attack Corbin is with righty power and the Dbacks have that.  Against lefties this season, the Dbacks have .762 OPS and a .331 wOBA.  From a handedness matchup, this is about as good as it gets for any of the teams playing tonight.  Righties recently have a nearly 53% hard-hit vs. Corbin this season. 

I’m going to be mostly focused on a handful of guys from this lineup.  Ketel Marte is far and away the top play in this lineup and he’s someone that is going to be a core to my Dbacks stack.  Against lefties this season, Marte has 14 homers and an OPS of 1.113.  He’s been one of the top lefty smashers in baseball this season and although he’s priced high, I’m going to force him into my lineups. 

For some salary savings, I’m going to also look at guys like Gabriel MorenoEugenio SaurezKevin Newman, and Randal Grichuk.  All of these guys are priced under $4k and have been known to produce against lefties.  Of that group, Suarez is my favorite as he’s been hitting the ball well of late.  The one guy I don’t have mentioned here is Christian Walker.  He left yesterday’s game with an oblique injury and we’ll need to monitor his status.  If he’s in, I like him as well. 

Texas Ranger vs. Lance Lynn

I’m going to go against the grain a bit here and target Lance Lynn.  Lance Lynn has not been good recently.  Over the last month, he’s been terrible with a 5.49 ERA and an xFIP even higher.  He’s been getting rocked as he’s given up 12 barrels in his last 19 innings of work.  Where we want to target Lynn is with lefties.  Not only has his K rate dipped to just 10.9% against them over the last month, but they’re crushing him when they make contact. 

Lefties have a massive 55% hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days and a .459 wOBA.  9 of the 14 homers he’s given up this season have been to lefties.  Thankfully, the Rangers have a bunch of lefties in this lineup.

A Rangers should start with Corey Seager.  Seager has been hitting the ball pretty well lately, with 13 hits in his last 40 AB and a .880 OPS.  He also has a hard-hit rate of nearly 65% over the last 2 weeks.  If you decide to fade a guy like Marte tonight, Seager makes for a nice alternative and probably won’t be as highly owned. 

After Seager, I also want Nate Lowe.  Lowe has been arguably their best hitter since the All-Star break, with 3 homers and 8 RBI.  Other guys that I’ll look to get into this stack today will be Josh Smith, Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia.  

Other stacks I like today will be the Mets vs. David Fester, Mariners vs. James Paxton, and Braves vs. Frankie Montas.  The Royals vs. Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox pen is also very much in play.  As you can see, there are a lot of great options for offense tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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For one of the most popular sports in the world, golf spent a long time in the wilderness before returning to the Olympics in 2016. First competed in 1900 and 1904, Olympics Golf attempted another preview in 1908. After a dispute about format, all British golfers withdrew from the event and only one golfer remained in the field. Canadian George Lyon was entitled to claim the gold medal, but honourably declined.

Over 100 years later, it was hardly a smooth return. The 2016 Olympic Games in Rio were overshadowed by the Zika virus and a number of headline golfers seemingly indifferent about competing for a Gold medal. Then, of course, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics were postponed with COVID. Eventually, they were played with minimal crowds and no fans.

That narrative does seem to be changing. The vast majority of the world’s best golfers will compete this week. Notably, it is another opportunity to unite the world’s various golf tours in pursuit of national pride rather than money. Many golfers made it a specific goal in 2024 to qualify for the Olympics and represent their country. There are even murmurs of 2028 also seeing the introduction of a Mixed Team event, which would be revolutionary and continue to support the pursuit of parity for the women’s game.

And that is great to see. In a world where professional sports, especially golf, presently often dominated by how much the players are earning it is a breath of fresh air to focus in and remember what they are playing for.

The tricky Le Golf National hosts the Olympic Golf events as we preview our best bets

3M Open Recap

Before we delve into our Olympics Golf preview for the men’s competition, we have to recap the 3M Open. Because, once again… WHAT A WEEK!

We had Jhonattan Vegas in our golf betting tips, who duly won at a massive 80/1.

Every week, we give out our DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater on SENZ Radio every Wednesday 10am NZT/Tuesday 6pm ET. It cashed once again to go 4/5, with Kurt Kitayama finishing Top 20 and a full place at +1000 wrapping up the week in 6th.

That continues a rather extraordinary run of five events. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we completed a famous quinella with Cam Davis winning at 70/1 and Min Woo Lee in 2nd both within our tips. Quietly, we also hit Bhatia 45/1 as FRL.

We then backed up with a week where we nearly had the winner on 3 different tours. Sergio Garcia won LIV Andalucia at 15/1 to cap that week. Ludvig Aberg lead through 3 rounds for us at the Scottish Open, before a poor final round saw him finish 4th.

In the same week, at the ISCO Championship Piereceson Coody looked to go wire-to-wire at 75/1. Rico Hoey also held the 54 hole lead at 50/1, and probably should have won the tournament in regulation time. Instead, those two players entered a 5 golfer playoff and ended up cashing full place payouts.

Then The Open Championship was our most profitable week of the season thus far. Four of our players finished in the top 10, including 125/1 Russell Henley and 350/1 Matthew Jordan. We went 4/5 on match-ups on the Saturday, before a clean sweep 5/5 in the final round including a 21/1 parlay.

Over the last 5 weeks, our selections have returned an ROI of a massive +117%!

Le Golf National Albatros Course hosts our Olympics Golf Preview

Olympics Golf Preview: Le Golf National Course Analysis

The Albatros Course at Le Golf National makes for a fitting host for an event of such prestige. And, make no bones about it, this is a major championship style test of golf.

Thankfully, aiding our preview of the Olympics Golf venue is that this course is a regular feature on the DP World Tour. Le Golf National has held the Open de France since 1991, only held elsewhere on two occasions with two tournaments cancelled due to COVID. The course is listed as a 7,174 yard par 71 for this event. Typically, the course plays closer to 7,250 yards on the DP World Tour.

The stadium style course also played host to the 2018 Ryder Cup. Following Team USA going 3-1 in the first session, they were then trounced by the Europeans 17 1/2 to 10 1/2. Much was made how the course favoured the Europeans. It was a tough setup, with very thick rough, but also copious amounts of water in play. That was frustrating for the Americans, whose typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. 

Conversely, it leads to a heavy emphasis on driving accuracy here. With a multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. On many holes, the additional advantage gained from being further down the fairway is simply not worth the risk.

Finally, elite approach play is rewarded here. It is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, Colsaerts, and Hisatsune can absolutely flush their irons on their day. Especially when compared to their DP World Tour counterparts. The 18th hole is spectacular but tough, which should provide an enticing finish.

Olympics Golf Preview: Le Golf National Course Comps

Firstly, course history here has been sticky on the DP World Tour. You can take some confidence that prior performances can provide a decent indication of future outputs for your golfers.

Immediately, many familiar with PGA Tour courses will see images of the golf course and think of TPC Sawgrass. With the copious amount of water and the wooden bulkheads, even with an island green on the 15th. Given the record of Sawgrass, where driving accuracy and iron player are identified, it should provide a decent formguide.

Similarly, PGA National can be considered. The course features an abundance of water, but also rewards strong drivers of the golf ball who can keep the ball in the fairway. It has often been a good guide for the majors, especially The Open. Those who regularly follow these articles will recall the strong links found with Royal Troon. That helped us identify Russell Henley at huge odds on his way to 5th. Le Golf National can be considered somewhat links-adjacent, in that is exposed and features long tussocky grass on mounds narrowing the fairways.

Valderrama also provides some reasonable guidance. The added benefit is, as well as being a former regular on the DP World Tour, it has since been taken over by the LIV Tour. It recently hosted LIV Andalucia there two weeks ago, when Sergio Garcia won for us at 15/1.

It asks similar questions in a slightly different way to Le Golf National. Featured are narrow tree lined fairways and that quirky test holds similarities as do their leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here.

Celtic Manor: Your Sneaky Good Form Guide

However, for those who have spent any time over on the DP World Tour, Celtic Manor could be the course comp to end all course comps.

Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. It is another Ryder Cup stadium style course. The host in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look very similar. But, it is the leaderboard similarity which is most eye-catching.

Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have all won at both golf courses. Tommy Fleetwood had a 2nd at Celtic Manor before his Open de France win. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both venues.

And, then you get into perhaps lesser renowned names on tour. Peter Uihlein and Richard Sterne both hold a runner-up finish on each. Nicolas Colsaerts had a 4th and 12th at his only two Celtic Manor starts prior to winning at Le Golf National in 2019. Joost Luiten won at Celtic Manor, and holds a 9th and 11th at Le Golf National.

On Luiten, he actually qualified for the Olympics. Before he could even preview the course and make his second Olympics Golf appearance, the Dutch Golf Federation changed their criteria to compete midway through the process. He took them to court, won, and was allowed to compete. Unfortunately, his spot had already been given to another golfer and the IOC did not permit the field to expand beyond 60 men. You can read his latest statement here about the extraordinary, and disappointing, reasons he isn’t playing this week.

Olympics Golf Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips preview for the 2024 Olympics Men’s Golf in Parisyou can already grab these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 Olympics Men’s Golf. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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