July 17, 2024

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. I despise referring to this preview as the British Open as much as the next golf writer. This is The 152nd Open Championship. Period. Unfortunately, all of you lovely friends over in the United States insist on referring to this as the British Open. If I want any chance of this preview finding an audience, I have to follow suit.

Now that is out of the way, let’s address the other metaphorical. We have been in great touch lately with our analysis. It was a very real chance to hit the winner on 3 different Tours last week, a feat which rarely presents itself. To walk away with only the one winner and feel disappointed may appear greedy on the face of it. However, given Coody was leader through all 3 rounds (with Hoey in a share for most) and Aberg looking in imperious form with a 2 shot lead entering Sunday, that is the reality.

Overall, it was another very profitable week. We are now at ROI for the year of +5.17%. Obviously, that number is substantially smaller than prior seasons (2023: +32.71%, 2022: +24.90%). However, much of this can be attributed to the manner of winners in 2024. A majority of events on PGA Tour have been won by unbackable very short-priced favourites (looking at you Scottie Scheffler) or extreme long-shots. These things do have a tendency to equalize themselves over time, and it is pleasing to be solidly in profit during what has been a tough year for most golf pundits.

British Open Preview: Royal Troon Course Analysis

Royal Troon plays host to the 152nd rendition of The Open Championship and is it’s 10th time hosting this prestigious event. Most recently, Royal Troon was host of the 2016 British Open. It resulted in one of the great golf duels of this generation. Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson traded blows in an eventful final two days, both finishing more than 11 shots ahead of their closest rivals.

This is a true, traditional Links test. A welcome return after The Renaissance Club last week, which is perhaps most aptly labelled as “Diet Links”. Think deep pot bunkers with revetted faces. There is thick gorse where you can lose a golf ball 5 metres in front of you. And the course is absolute seaside, leading to an exposed test where the elements and winds so often have their say.

Royal Troon Golf Course: A Tale of Two 9s

Royal Troon eases you into the round with a number of makeable birdie chances. There are 3 opening par 4s all under 400 yards and two par 5s, with the long par 3 5th the only tricky test. Scoring is mainly compiled via finding the fairway safely, avoiding the pot bunkers and gorse, then hitting a good wedge shot in close. Typically, these holes are played downwind.

It makes for an interesting narrative, as golfers might already feel the pressure if they haven’t managed to stock a few birdies on the card to hold onto throughout the remainder of the round. I have no doubt you will see a player pop up at -5 or -6 for the front 9 at some point in the tournament.

The back 9 is quite the opposite. Where the front 9 is 3,539 yards and par 36, the back 9 is 3,846 yards but a par 35. For those final 9 holes to play more than 300 yards longer, despite being 1 stroke less, and into the prevailing wind outlines the stern finish that faces golfers this week. As a result, distance will be more of an advantage on the back 9 and there will be a higher prevalence of long irons.

That doesn’t change the fact that accuracy will still be important. A number of holes feature out of bounds. Particularly, the famous 11th hole “Railway” will be the toughest hole on the course and maybe even of the entire season. Nicklaus infamously made a 10 on this hole and Arnold Palmer described it as the “most dangerous hole I have ever seen”.

The keys to success here will be driving accuracy, SG: APP under 125 yards, SG: APP over 200+ yards, and putting.

British Open Preview: Royal Troon Course Comps

First, a note about Royal Troon course history. When you preview the British Open, initial instinct may take you to the most recent event in 2016 to follow players who performed well.

My advice would be to take this form with a grain of salt. That 2016 Open had one of the largest weather wave advantages in major championship history. From the eventual top 21 on the leaderboard, 17 teed off before 11am on Friday. Furthermore, 2/3rd of the top 21 teed off before 9:45am. As such, I’m not going to penalize players who didn’t necessarily play well here in 2016. If golfers finished high up the leaderboard, it can be taken as a bonus.

Obviously, other links form is also a positive. The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship has a compilation of 3 different links golf courses that should prove a worthy guide. Other courses like Hillside, Castle Stuart, Portstweart, and Dundonald are helpful. Also, don’t disregard faux links courses like Yas Links. All of those are, or have been, on the DP World Tour in recent years.

The difficulty comes that the PGA Tour have no true links courses. The Renaissance Club comes in useful here for the last few years when it has been co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. Again, this isn’t perfect as not all PGA Tour players compete in that event to preview some links golf prior to the British Open.

Cognizant Classic and PGA National Display Intriguing Correlations

For rating PGA Tour golfers, one of the best guides is the Cognizant (formerly Honda) Classic and the host golf course since 2007 PGA National.

Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, and Rory McIlroy have all completed the double at Cognizant Classic with The Open. Then golfers like Lowry, Straka, Garcia, Fowler, Scott, and Woods have either a win or runner-up finish across both events.

In fact, there are some interesting links between the Honda Classic and Royal Troon in general. Shock 500/1 winner Todd Hamilton won The Open here in 2004 and his sole PGA Tour victory came in the Honda.

Justin Leonard also won it and he too lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Troon. And you can throw in Mark Calcavecchia for good measure. Although on neighbouring courses, it’s worthy of a cursory note. All three having proven their adeptness in the Florida winds, which translates well to what Royal Troon and links golf in general demands.

British Open Weather Preview

No preview of the British Open would be complete without a look at what the weather may (or may not) do. As seen at The Open Championship in 2016, the exposed nature of links courses can result in a significant weather advantage for certain weather waves. And initial forecasts indicate that weather could play a factor again in 2024.

Importantly, all players go off the 1st tee. This can mean that players don’t necessarily have such a clean AM/PM wave as in other tournaments. Therefore, it is imperative that you check both 1st and 2nd round tee times for your golfers.

Thursday morning looks to be the calmest winds of the day. There is potential rain assisting to soften the greens, as long as it doesn’t get too heavy. Winds will then escalate throughout the day. By the afternoon and evening, winds will reach the high teens and gusts will be significant.

Friday also looks to benefit those going off early. However, there is a notable window between 11am and 3pm where winds may calm a bit before building again later in the evening. That may see the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups get the best of it this week. Particularly, those teeing off in the 11:26am group on Friday onwards bear consideration.

Heavy rains are forecast on Saturday with more high winds forecast. It could be truly dreadful if it remains as currently forecast. Hopefully, the round can finish in regulation time. Given the cut at The Open Championship is Top 70 and ties, bear in mind more golfers will see the weekend.

Sunday should be dry based on current forecasts. However, winds will be high all day. It should lead to a fantastic finish on a very tough back 9 holes with a major championship on the line.

British Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the British Open Championship, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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