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June 12, 2024

Before getting into our betting tips for the US Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Pinehurst No. 2, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the US Open golf betting tips below.

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Honourable Mentions: Viktor Hovland, Cam Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom McKibbin, Victor Perez.

Pinehurst No. 2 hosts our US Open golf betting tips

US Open Golf Betting Tips

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
4u E/W +1200 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Collin Morikawa
2.5u E/W +1600 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
1u E/W +7500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +250 (Various)

Corey Conners
0.5u E/W +8000 (BetVictor 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +280 (TAB)

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +320 (Various)
And
3u Top 40 +160 (TAB)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +17500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +187 (Bet365 w. 25% Bet Boost)

Davis Thompson
0.25u E/W +30000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365 )
And
2.5u Top 40 +220 (Bet365 )

The Scottie Scheffler Conversation

As is often the case in 2024, you have to approach the Scottie Scheffler conversation. The same question remains when betting on the US Open.

There are couple of reasons to avoid betting Scheffler outright this week. The odds on offer are the shortest for a golfer in 15 years. That was Tiger Woods at +180 in the 2009 PGA Championship. It goes without saying that is outrageous odds for any golfer in one of the best fields of the year. Additionally, there may perhaps be no more appropriate golf course for taking Scheffler on.

In some ways, Pinehurst No. 2 is just plain unfair. Given the firmness of the course and fast dome shaped greens, even good approach shots may be punished this week. This can lead to volatility and, perhaps unfortunately, the best golfer of the week tournament may not actually win the tournament.

Sure, Scheffler could runaway with victory here much like Martin Kaymer did in 2014. We have to take on that risk. I’d instead favour taking him match-ups or tournament bets for a likely similar return. As always at DeepDiveGolf, we are betting value for the US Open. That means identifying situations where betting odds for the US Open are not reflective of the players actual chances.

US Open Betting Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

For the second tournament in a row, I am leading with Xander as my headline selection. I spoke before the Memorial Tournament of his ability on approach from 200+ yards. At least a third of all approach shots will come from that category. Schauffele is the best in the world in that metric, and it isn’t particularly close.

In many ways, Xander has been a victim of Scheffler’s success. He has been playing his best golf in his career. Again, that has been by quite some margin. Unfortunately, he has come up against a golfer playing at Tiger-esque levels in 2024.

We saw in 2022 that Schauffele managed to compile a quick run of successive victories. Having achieved his first win in 18 months, he also managed to get the Major victory monkey off his back when winning the PGA Championship.

His US Open record is impeccable reading 5-6-3-5-7-14-10 in his 7 appearances. He has finished no worse than 18th in his last 9 Major Championship appearances. Likewise, the formline at Donald Ross designed East Lake is also impressive. He has gone W-7-2-2-5-4-2 there.

Xander is a previous runner-up at the Open Championship and a winner at a tricky Scottish Open, where -7 was enough. He was also 2nd in North Carolina a few weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship for good measure.

Given his form, I show fair odds at 9/1. So, although 12/1 may seem short, that actually represents one of the better expected value on the US Open betting board. He could surprise a golf world with all eyes on Scottie Scheffler, and win back-to-back Majors this week.

Collin Morikawa

Given a short-priced option at the top and a volatile golf course, I decided to take just one other option up top before heading to the outsiders. And Morikawa shaped as the best additional selection within that range.

Much consideration was given to Hovland. Despite the inevitable return to Joe Mayo, I still hold concerns about his around the green game at a venue where short-game creativity should be key. Morikawa actually holds little worry in that category, rating out 9th in this field over the last 6 months.

Since reuniting with a former coach himself, Rick Sessinghaus, we have seen a significant resurgence in form from Morikawa. He has contended at both Majors, finishing 3rd at The Masters and 4th at the PGA Championship. He has finished no worse than 16th since that Masters performance. The most pleasing has been the return to his excellent approach play. He has improved on approach in his last 4 tournaments, ranking 4th for SG: APP last week.

Add into the mix that he is a previous Open Championship winner, and we could be looking at another golfer being just one win away from the career Grand Slam.

Min Woo Lee

So, we head swiftly into our longer shots, and few make better claims than Min Woo Lee.

Min Woo was a popular selection at the beginning of the year to win the US Open. For some reason, most likely the Scheffler effect, a lot of that noise has quietened down. As such, we can grab him this week at 75/1 when he was similar odds at the beginning of the year.

Another winner of the Scottish Open, Min Woo has plenty of experience on the Sandbelt courses in Australia to draw upon. I do suspect that this test will shape quite similar to that area. He has finished 27th and 5th in his two US Open appearances to date, with just one round hindering his chances on both occasions.

His approach play is often the question. However, his strongest range is from over 200+ yards, aided by his high clubhead speed meaning he can approach with a more lofted club than others. He has now gained on the field in that regard in 3 out of 4 most recent appearances.

Finally, there are some links between previous US Open leaderboards at Pinehurst No. 2 and TPC Sawgrass. Martin Kaymer is a champion at both, with 2014 runner-up Rickie Fowler also linking the two. As such, his contending on debut there in 2023 could see him join his sister Min Jee Lee in both having won the US Open.

Corey Conners

I have been on the Conners train for quite some time in 2024, and remain on him this week.

What many are sleeping on is the amount of driving distance he has added this year. Long regarded as a very accurate driver, he has now gained on the field for driving distance for every tournament bar two since July 2023.

Again, he ranks out very well for approach shots over 200+ yards. He ranks 3rd in that metric for 2024, behind Tony Finau who has well documented struggles on bermudagrass greens.

Also being missed is the swift improvement in his short-game of late, ranking as one of the sharpest improvers compared to historical baseline in that metric for the last 3 months. Conners has contended at Sawgrass twice and holds 20s at both the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.

Certainly, Conner’s US Open record leaves a lot to be desired. In saying that, as outlined in my preview I do suspect that this golf course plays quite a bit different to many other US Open venues. He has not missed a cut since the US Open last year, marking 23 tournaments. That improvement in putting and ATG has seen him finish 26th or better in his last 5 tournaments.

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Given the lack of strokes gained data, capping LIV Golf players is notoriously tricky. But let’s not be too hard on them, the first LIV Golf tournament didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website. So, you could argue they have come a long way by including ground-breaking statistics like Greens in Regulation.

Cam Smith looked a likely bet for me until he shot a round of 80 in last week’s tournament. My sources on the ground (I have links to his camp through his caddy) say that he is loving Pinehurst No. 2 thus far. Whether being scared off by that 3rd round performance at LIV Houston was wise remains to be seen.

Instead, I’ll side with Dean Burmester here. We saw some of the best of Burmy at the PGA Championship when he finished 12th off the back of a special invite. He finished 11th at The Open Championship held at St Andrews behind Cam Smith, as well as holding a 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

His prodigious distance should remain an asset, ranking 4th in this field over the last two years for driving distance. Likewise, he possesses deft touch around the greens where he is 16th over the past two years. Looking over that timeframe is necessary given the lack of LIV data.

Burmester has tended to do best in tricky conditions. He most notably won at a difficult Doral at -11 earlier this year. That was his 4th victory at -12 or higher.

He ranks as the best long-shot in my books and warranted me marking him for our Bet Boost at the TAB this week.

Ryan Fox

I’ve been called the “Fox Whisperer” on occasion, and that followed in the Canadian Open. We selected Foxy that week at huge odds, he held a 4 shot lead with 25 holes to go, before eventually finishing 7th.

That was the second time this season where he has capitulated from contention. Ryan Fox was just two strokes off the lead at The Masters before fading. Again, he did the same in Canada when spotting the leaderboard and realising where he sat in the tournament.

Fox has a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links, where he finished 2nd in his defense. He also finished 16th in The Open Championship and has a 4th and 6th at the Scottish Open. I asked him about his love for links golf in the below interview (7m30 mark). Fox commented that he loved the creativity that links golf allowed him around the greens, something which will be imperative in this contest.

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The golf course reminds me a lot of Te Arai Links, his home golf course in New Zealand. Foxy swiftly set the course record there shooting a bogey-free 60 with 12 birdies.

Te Arai Links

It will of course be a big ask to win this. However, we have seen stranger things when betting at the US Open previously. None more so than the Kiwi connection to Pinehurst No. 2, with Michael Campbell winning here in 2005 and Danny Lee also winning the US Amateur at this venue.

Davis Thompson

Finally, I was tempted by Tom McKibbin and Victor Perez to round out the selections. McKibbin won a junior tournament here in 2015, is shaping as one of the best players on the DP World Tour, has plenty of links form, and is a winner at a very difficult golf course Green Eagle where he finished 8th when defending. Perez has made some notable gains on approach in his last 3 tournaments, has won the Alfred Dunhill Links, and was 12th in the PGA Championship at the Donald Ross designed Oak Hill.

Instead, I can’t resist a speculative bet on Davis Thompson. Thompson is both long and straight with driver in hand, which will be helpful at tricky fairways to find on what is still a long golf course nonetheless.

He also ranks well for approach, rating out 26th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months. Included in that was when 15th on approach last week, despite actually losing strokes on approach in the final round. Particularly, he has traditionally been best on approach from longer range.

Thompson is handy enough ATG, rating out 32nd in this field over the past 6 months. Much of his performance will come down to his performance with the putter. Positive signs have been seen of late, as well as additional support from prior performances on bermudagrass greens. Winning is more than likely beyond him, but he looks value for a Top 40 and perhaps even a cheeky Top 20.

Join Team Audience for the US Open PGA Draftcast

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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).

Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.

That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.

US Open History at Pinehurst No. 2 Preview

The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!

Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.

Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Golf Course Analysis

It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.

Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.

Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).

Pinehurst No. 2 hosts our US Open preview

There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.

Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.

Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Course Comps

As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.

I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.

The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.

US Open Weather Preview

In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.

Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.

Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!

US Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the 124th US Openyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

Rewatch the US Open PGA Draftcast

If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!

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Welcome to the Open Ownership Projections brought to you by Win Daly Sports. My wife and I were shaking our heads after the 2023 U. S. Open. This was NOT our national championships way of doing things. With apologies to Clark, scores of -10, -9, -7, -6, -5 at an Open? THE U. S. Open? Hell no. Finally, this year some sanity, a cohesive and clear course. Pinehurst #2. I will wager with anyone that the winner never sniffs double digits, at anytime, in this 2024 Open. Difficult choices face these golfers this week, just like the hard choices we will have to make in DFS as well. The Open Ownership Projections are dedicated to making you a smarter and wealthier DFS player.

Win Daily Sports’ golf team works tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The PGA Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

C-A-R-N-A-G-E. When the Open was last played at Pinehurst #2 in 2014 there were 156 golfers that got tested. Only two of them, just two, ended up under par and one of them was -1. Since then they have added native wire-grass and natural pine weed to the rough. It’s not thick and tall like normal rough, think landing in the rough and having to hit out of what looks like small tiny tree roots tangled everywhere in sand. 3 caddies coming off the course yesterday mentioned the same words, “diabolical.” One golfer mentioned that all the greens were like upside down cup saucers. Yesterday the honorable Mr. Clark, last years winner, said, “you need a really good shot to get it up on the green and even then you’re nowhere near done.” “The ball can roll off in any direction into god knows what.” ‘It will be borderline playable on Thursday if current conditions stay, it’s very fast now, really fast.” When he was walking away a reporter asked, “would you say the course right now is easy, fair or hard?” Clark replied, “hard. very hard.” It looks like the U. S. Open has gone from Peter Pan’s niblets to King Kong’s balls. Yippee!*

  • So many golfers complained yesterday about the golf balls not holding the greens that they watered them last night per the U.S.G.A. The greens will get faster and drier as the week progresses.

GOLFERS WHO WILL SUFFER THE LEAST include Scottie, Rory, Xander, Mori, Bryson, Deki, Fleetwood, Hatton, Henley, Clark, Bradley, Si Woo, T Kim and Rai.

Recent Results

THE Frisky Risky Biscuit! Our very top selection last week was Scheffler/ Mori who finished 1-2. The other mid, low, left field and FRL picks all made the cut. Our Biscuit came down with bogey brain. Our Frisky Biscuit record is now 27-7 for a 5-6K golfer at 5% or under ownership to make the cut. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord Golf channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for calm to moderate wind conditions on both waves Thursday and Friday. Possible light rain Friday evening and Saturday night. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord this evening for more comprehensive reports from Deep Dive Dave.

Let’s take a look at the U.S. Open Ownership Projections to create leverage and increase your ROI.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie41.413000
Schauffele, Xander23.711500
Morikawa, Collin23.39400
McIlroy, Rory19.612100
Matsuyama, Hideki18.48000
Aberg, Ludvig16.99600
DeChambeau, Bryson16.510100
Straka, Sepp16.16500
Fleetwood, Tommy15.68500
Hovland, Viktor15.29800
Koepka, Brooks14.910000
Henley, Russell14.46900
Theegala, Sahith13.97600
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan13.86200
Fitzpatrick, Mathew13.78200
Im, Sungjae12.17100
Burns, Sam11.37200
Finau, Tony11.18100
Lee, Min Woo11.17300
An, Byeong10.97100
Conners, Corey10.67200
Thomas, Justin10.48900
Bradley, Keegan10.46800
Noren, Alexander10.36900
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 10.27300
Burmester, Dean9.96800
Smith, Cameron9.78700
Kim, Si Woo8.96800
Hatton, Tyrrell8.67800
Homa, Max7.58600
Harman, Brian7.36900
McCarthy, Denny7.36700
Horschel, Billy7.36600
Spieth, Jordan7.27900
Day, Jason6.67400
Zalatoris,Will6.38300
Rai, Aaron6.26400
Lowry, Shane5.57700
Cantlay, Patrick5.29200
Clark, Wyndham5.19000
English, Harris5.16700
Scott, Adam4.96900
Johnson, Dustin4.87400
Young, Cameron4.67500
Dunlap,  Nick 4.45800
Bhatia, Akshay 4.36500
Hoge, Tom4.26500
Perez, Victor 4.16100
Hadwin, Adam4.06200
Poston,  JT3.76400
Kitayama, Kurt 3.66500
Hughes, Mackenzie3.66200
Thompson, Davis 3.36100
MacIntyre, Robert 3.17200
Glover, Lucas3.06400
Detry,Thomas 2.96700
Pendrith, Taylor 2.96100
Eckroat, Austin 2.86700
Kaymer, Martin2.85700
Fox, Ryan2.76500
Meronk, Adrian2.66300
Woods, Tiger2.56400
Jaeger, Stephan 2.46200
Hubbard, Mark2.46000
Sargent, Gordon (a)2.45400
Power, Seamus2.36100
Meissner, Mac 2.35800
Puig, David2.25900
Hojgaard, Nicolai2.06600
Rose, Justin1.97000
Van Rooyen, Erik1.96300
Hossler, Beau1.96000
Fowler, Rickie1.87000
Garcia, Sergio1.86700
Davis, Cameron1.86300
Moore, Taylor1.76600
Svensson, Adam1.75900
Kirk, Chris1.66200
Berger, Daniel1.56600
McKibbin, Tom1.56200
Simpson, Webb1.46000
Higgs, Harry1.35800
Mansell, Richard1.35600
Knapp, Jake1.26000
Schenk, Adam1.25900
Grillo, Emiliano1.16100
Todd, Brendon1.16000
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)1.05900
Herman, Jim1.05200
Mickelson, Phil0.96100
Widing, Tim 0.95600
Cole, Eric0.86300
Pavon, Matthieu0.86000
Clanton, Luke (a)0.85600
Woodland, Gary0.76300
Kucher, Matt0.75900
Taylor, Nick0.66400
Kanaya, Takumi0.65900
Malnati, Peter0.65800
Bennett, Sam 0.65700
Sigg, Greyson 0.55800
Blair, Zac0.55500
Lower, Justin0.45800
Hadley, Chesson0.45700
Hoshino, Rikuya0.45500
Manassero, Matteo0.35700
Bairstow, Sam 0.35500
Capan III, Frankie0.35400
Hoey, Rico0.35400
Shimuzu, Taisei0.35300
Greyserman, Max0.35500
Kohles, Ben0.25700
Reiter, Charles 0.25000
Wu, Brandon 0.15700
Molinari, Francesco0.15600
Ishikawa, Ryo 0.15500
Shipley, Neal (a)0.15300
Hagestad, Stewart (a)0.15200
Mack III, Willie0.15000
Chacarra, Eugenio 0.05600
Jarvis, Casey0.05600
Echavarria, Nico0.05500
Forrest, Grant0.05500
James, Benjamin (a)0.05400
Scrivener, Jason0.05400
De La Fuente, Santiago (a)0.05400
Rock, Robert0.05400
Campbell, Brian0.05300
Molinari, Edoardo0.05300
Robinson Thompson, Brandon0.05300
Kawamoto, Riki0.05300
Kang, Sung0.05300
Salinda, Isaiah 0.05300
Jenkins, Carter0.05200
Kjettrup, Frederik0.05200
McAllister, Logan 0.05200
Petefish, Chris0.05200
Valdes, Brendan (a)0.05100
Naegel, Chris0.05100
Buchanan, Jackson (a)0.05100
Morales, Omar (a)0.05100
Tai, Hiroshi (a)0.05100
Williams, Wells (a)0.05100
Bell, Parker (a)0.05100
McGowan, Michael0.05100
Schaake, Carson0.05100
Vrzich, Joey0.05000
Moldovan, Maxwell 0.05000
McCulloch, Ashton (a)0.05000
Chin, John0.05000
Svobda, Andrew0.05000
Kim, Brian (a)0.05000
Prater, Colin (a)0.05000
Broin, Gunner (a)0.05000
Black, Otto0.05000
Suber, JacksonN/A 

These U.S. Open Ownership projections are accurate as of 6:20 EST. Top tier golfers will show a higher % by lock.

Our top pivots for leverage are: Koepka, Cantlay, Will Z, DJ and Fowler

My Picks for The U.S. Open

Top Tier: Scottie

Mid Tier: Fleetwood

Low Tier: Burns

Out in Left Play: Rai

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Henley

FR Leader: Puig (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, and 10, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the sometime surprise guest (last week it was the “the dude”, Pat Mayo himself) who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 9:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports, Sia and Joel.

***** Parting Shots *****

A man boards a plane and takes a seat. He looks up and sees this gorgeous knock out beauty that came up and sat right beside him. He couldn’t believe his luck! Eager to speak to her he asked, “Business or pleasure?” She turns to him, smiles and says, “business, I’m going to the Annual Nymphomaniacs of America Convention in Boston.” He swallowed hard and could not believe his ears. Trying to stay composed he asked, “What’s your business at this convention?” “Lecturer” she said. “I use information from personal experiences to debunk some of the popular myths about sexuality.” He curiously asked, “What are those myths?” “Well” she said, “One popular myth is that African Americans are the most well endowed, when actually it’s the native American Indian who is most likely to possess that trait.” “Another popular myth is that Frenchmen are the greatest lovers when it’s actually men of Mexican descent.” “Also”, “the men who have the greatest stamina are the southern rednecks.” Suddenly the woman blushed and said, “I’m so sorry, I shouldn’t be discussing this with you, I don’t even know your name!” “Tonto” the man said, “Tonto Gonzales, but my friends just call me Bubba Jay,”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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The 2024 U.S. Open returns to the storied Pinehurst No. 2 course in North Carolina’s Sandhills from June 13-16, marking the 124th edition of America’s golf championship. Renowned for its challenging Donald Ross design, Pinehurst No. 2 will test a field of 156 elite golfers, including 84 fully exempt players and numerous qualifiers from a pool of nearly 10,000 hopefuls. This year’s tournament, broadcast across NBC, USA, and Peacock, promises a gripping contest with favorites like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas vying for the title. With accuracy and precision paramount on this demanding course, players and fans alike can expect a dramatic showcase of skill and endurance.

Here are Win Daily Experts’ picks for this week’s tourney.

.
David
Bieleski
Sia
Nejad
Spencer
Aguiar
Joel
Schreck
Steven
Polardi

StixPicks
Outright WinnerAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Schauffele
Morikawa
Min Woo
Conners
Burmester
Fox
Thompson
Morikawa
Koepka
Matsuyama
Schauffele
McIlroy
Min Woo
Hideki
Scheffler
Morikawa
Aberg
Matsuyama
SchauffeleRory
Fleetwood
Aberg
Top Finishes MarketsTop 20
Min Woo
Conners
Burmester
Fox
Thompson

Top 40
Burmester
Fox
Thompson
Top 20
Matsuyama
Top 30
Bezuidenhout
Top 20
Theegala
Finau
Sungjae Im

Top 40
Bezuidenhout
Horschel
Perez
Fleetwood
Aberg
Matsuyama
Sungjae Im
Min Woo Lee
Bezuidenhout
Rai
Top 40
Mansell
Match-UpsConners over Young (-110 Bet365)
Fox over Rose (-105 FD)
Day over Cam Smith (-114 Unibet)
Meronk over Fowler (-120 Caesars)
Bezuidenhout -120 over Hadwin
Min Woo -114 over Straka
First-Round LeaderAll Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds

Morikawa 1u E/W 25/1
Aberg 0.75u E/W 33/1
Min Woo 0.5u E/W 66/1
Burmester 0.25u E/W 90/1
Fox 0.25u E/W 100/1
McKibbin 0.25u E/W 125/1
Aberg 35
Min Woo 66
Ben An 70
Sungjae Im 70
Thompson 150
Schauffele
Morikawa
Sungjae Im
Fleetwood
Henley
Noren
Perez
DFS Plays I ❤️ Schauffele
Aberg
Homa
Min Woo
Conners
Fox
McKibbin
Perez
Thompson
PerezMcIlroy
Schauffele
Min Woo
Aberg
Fleetwood
Bezuidenhout
Perez
Aberg
Scottie
Morikawa
Matsuyama
Scottie
Xander
Fleetwood
Finau
Aberg
Bezuidenhout
Fleetwood
Aberg
Mansell
Dustin Johnson
Burns
DFS Chalk I'm playingScheffler
Schauffele
Morikawa
Fleetwood
Fitzpatrick
BezuidenhoutScottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Scheffler
Morikawa
Straka
Matsuyama
Scottie
Xander
Min Woo
Aberg
Rory
Xander
DFS Chalk I'm fadingDeChambeau
Theegala
Benny An
Sungjae Im
Straka
Straka
DeChambeau
Cam Smith
Noren
McIlroy
DeChambeau
Straka
Koepka
Hatton
Scheffler
Henley
Straka

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Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that means we’ll have a full day of baseball.  While 4 games are starting at 1pm today, I’ll be focused on the main slate that start after 7pm tonight.  As has become the norm of late, we’re left without top end pitching tonight.  The most expensive pitcher tonight is Sonny Gray at $10k and I’m not sure I can get there with him tonight as he hasn’t been as dominant as he was to start the year.  There are however a few spots for pitchers that I really like

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Christopher Sanchez ($8k on DK) vs. Boston Red Sox

Lefties vs. the Red Sox has become a thing this season.  The Red Sox as a team have been striking out at a torrid pace vs. lefties in 2024.  If we look at the projected lineup for the Red Sox tonight, we’ll see that they have 6 guys in the lineup that have a strike-out rate over 25% vs. lefties and 4 of them are over 30%.  While Christopher does not blow most hitters away, at his price point we don’t need someone to K 10 hitters. 

In this matchup, he has a real shot of striking out 6-7 hitters.  If we can get that plus 6 innings of work and limited damage, we’re talking about a pitcher that could crush his value.  In 3 of his last 6 starts, he’s been well over 20 DK points and this is a matchup where he can get there again.  He’s not splashy, but he’ll get the job done for us today. 

Bryce Miller ($9k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m looking for Bryce Miller to get back to form tonight.  He’s coming off an awful start against the Royals, but who hasn’t had a bad start vs. the Royals this season?  We’ve seen Miller throw some gems this season and if we look at the bad starts they’ve typically been against really strong lineups.  His recent duds have been against teams like the Royals, Yankees, and Orioles.  All top MLB offenses. 

He’ll get the luxury of facing off against an awful White Sox lineup.  The White Sox have an OPS under .625 this season against righties and wOBA of .278.  Both numbers indicate severe struggles and they’ll struggle against a pitcher that has a ceiling upside today.  I’m hopeful his last outing lowers his ownership because he should do well tonight.   

I don’t have Sonny Gray listed as one of my top 2 pitchers but he’s definitely in play tonight.  He’s just not a must-start.  5 of his last 6 starts have been mediocre at best and with him being the only pitcher at $10k or above, I’m willing to fade with the hopes the Pirates can get to him.  Other pitchers I like tonight will be David Peterson vs. Miami and maybe Nick Lodolo vs. Cleveland.  This is a slate without many options on the mound and a case could be made to stack against every one of them.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Dan Altavilla/Daniel Lynch

To avoid having Daniel Lynch face Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the first inning, the Royals will be turning the ball over to opener Dan Altavilla.  Anyway you splice it, Lynch will have to at some point face off against these 2, and bad things are going to happen when he does.  Daniel Lynch is a pitcher who once had a ton of promise thanks to his expected K upside.  Boy have things gone badly for him in the Majors.  He broke into the bigs in 2021 and he’s had now just one season with an ERA under 5. 

He’s someone that we’ll typically be able to rely on to give up some runs.  He’s coming off a shellacking handed down to him by the Mariners last week.  He gave up 8 ER in just 4 innings of work.  I’m not sure we can expect a similar fate as that was horrendous, but with him giving up a 47% hard-hit rate so far this season a repeat isn’t completely out of the question.  We want to focus mostly on the righties here as they have typically been his weakness.  He’s given up 42 homers in his career and 40 have been to righties.  Sure Juan Soto is matchup-proof, but if I’m paying over $6k for a hitter it’s going to be in a platoon advantage type of spot.

Core Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Bats: Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo

Value Bats: Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Trevino

Los Angeles Angels vs. Slade Cecconi

Slade Cecconi is arguably the worst pitcher on this slate.  Even when he throws an ok start like this last one, there are still major flags being raised showing how bad he is.  He’s had just two starts this season where he’s had an xFIP under 4.70.  More often than not, his starts have had an xFIP over 5.  He’s giving up a massive amount of hard contact this season as he’s given up 10 barrels over the last month. 

To make matters worse, he’s also given up a flyball rate of over 50%.  So a ton of hard-hit balls in the air.   What could go wrong!  With Cecconi, we want to focus on righties.  They are torching him this season especially of late.  Over the last 30 days, righties have a .410 ISO and a .488 wOBA vs. him.  Yikes!

Core Bats: Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, Kevin Pillar

Secondary Bats: Logan O’Hoppe, Willie Calhoun

Value Bats: Zach Neto, Michael Stefanic

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Braxton Garrett, Dodgers vs. Jon Gray, and Cardinals vs. Bailey Falter.  I don’t mind the Guardians vs. Nick Lodolo either. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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