Before getting into our betting tips for the Houston Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Memorial Park Golf Course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Houston Open golf betting tips below.
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Houston Open Honourable Mentions
As always, I like to play homage to a few golfers that just missed out on making our betting card for the Houston Open.
This course looks purpose built for both Patrick Rodgers and Taylor Pendrith. Rodgers has missed two consecutive cuts, albeit by a single stroke, and looks short enough in markets at 50/1. Likewise, Pendrith arrives after four missed cuts. Two of those were again on the number. Additionally, he has already had two looks at Memorial Park for a 66th and a M/C.
Davis Thompson was possibly the closest to making the Houston Open betting tips. This talented sophomore has plenty of driving distance and can pop with both the irons and short-game. He gained a massive number of strokes on approach last week as well, albeit missing the cut. The final determinant was losing a huge number of strokes on similar greens last week.
Finally, Carl Yuan bore some consideration. He was 35th on debut here and played well last week when finishing 5th. Ultimately, I just hoped for something a little juicier than 125/1.
Houston Open Golf Betting Tips
Updated in WinDaily Sports Discord 7pm ET Tuesday 26 March
Suggested Staking
Will Zalatoris
2.5u E/W +2000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Keith Mitchell – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
1u E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +210 (TAB)
Ryan Fox
0.5u E/W +10000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +400 (TAB)
And 2u Top 40 +170 (TAB)
Joseph Bramlett
0.5u E/W +10000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +375 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +180 (TAB)
Joel Dahmen
0.5u E/W +11000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +320 (TAB)
And
2u Top 40 +150 (TAB)
Matti Schmid – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.25u E/W +20000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2.5u Top 40 +188 (TAB)
Mac Meissner
0.25u E/W +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +1100 (Bet365)
And
2.5u Top 40 +320 (Bet365)
Houston Open Betting Player Profiles
Will Zalatoris
Of course, a very simple way to construct your card would be to take Scottie Scheffler and ignore the rest. Opening at +300 to win, he has since been cut to a miniscule +260. However, bear in mind this still means he possesses an implied probability of 27.78%. Theoretically, that means that the field should win more than 70% of the time. It is hard to argue there is any value in that number.
Instead, I was attracted to the +2000 available on Zalatoris. Outside the top of the board, the field is relatively weak. Zalatoris ranks in the top 5 for SG: App over the last 3 months. However, bear in mind that also includes his first few tournaments when returning from injury. Those concerns are well behind him, and he has been back to his emphatic best of late. The number is simply too low, implying that he is expected to win this tournament nearly 6 times less than Scheffler.
Keith Mitchell – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
In general, the public can overreact to the performance in a single tournament. The fact that they have done so with Mitchell after just one round is worthy of attention.
Yes, he will need to recover quickly from a horrible final round at the Valspar Championship. However, do note he still finished 17th for the tournament. Prior to that, he had been playing some of his best golf in quite some time. That included a 17th at the WM Phoenix Open, 19th at the correlated Vidanta Vallarta, and 9th at the Cognizant Classic.
Mitchell has lost strokes OTT in just two tournaments since May 2022. His prowess with the driver is an undoubted asset at Memorial Park, as evidenced by his 9th placed finish here when arriving off form of 60-40-MC. He also boasts a strong record at Quail Hollow, with a 3rd and 8th in what is always a strong field. He has gained strokes on approach at every event in 2024 since the Sony Open on 14th January, ranking 4th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months.
Ryan Fox
Despite what can only be described as a sluggish start to 2024, I do like the signs we have been seeing lately in Foxy’s game.
It was a remarkable year for Ryan Fox in 2023, where he earned his PGA Tour card from the DP World Tour. Much of that was built on his excellent approach play. However, to start the season his form with the irons has been somewhat lacking. He lost SG: APP at every tournament except one from October 2023 to the end of February 2024.
Promisingly, he has now gained strokes on approach for three consecutive tournaments. The driving accuracy can be an issue at certain golf courses for Ryan Fox. As noted in my preview, that it is not an issue here. Fairways are wide and the rough is extremely short. I’ll instead hone in on the improved iron-play and ranking 13th for driving distance in this field over the last 12 months.
Joseph Bramlett
Another bomber who could show up this week at big odds is Joseph Bramlett.
Bramlett ranks 9th in this field over the last 12 months for driving distance. This is exactly the type of track we want to be able to effectively deploy Bramlett’s strongest skillset. He gets to use driver, and often, on Memorial Park Golf Course.
He finished 9th here when this tournament was last held, backing it up with a 10th at the Mexico Open in the same season. Perhaps most eye-catching was his performance last week. On paper, the Valspar Championship is not the best course fit for Bramlett. His lack of driving accuracy can prove a real hinderance at the Copperhead Course. To still be able to finish 17th was of note, ranking out 14th for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G and despite losing stokes OTT and putting. This suits better, and I am happy to be early on Bramlett here at an ideal course setup.
Joel Dahmen
On his profile alone, Dahmen should lack the distance to really contend at these long golf courses. However, I see more than enough in his course comps and history to perhaps suggest otherwise.
Firstly, course form of 5th and 9th in two starts jumps off the page. Further correlations can be found at Quail Hollow. He has finished 16th, 2nd, and 18th there previously.
His sole PGA Tour victory came at the Corales Puntacana Championship. That course has now become home to the bombers and is generally exposed to wind. The winning score that week was -12. It is a mark that could well be successful, with prior winning scores here of -13, -10, and -16 all coming in calmer conditions.
Much of that comes from Dahmen’s ability with his long irons. He ranks one of the best in the field for SG: APP over 200+ yards for the last 12 months. He arrives hear this week having gained a massive +8.36 and +6.04 SG: APP in his last two starts.
Perhaps this will be the second week in a row where a golfer who wears a silly hat can surprisingly win the tournament
Matti Schmid – Houston Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
Unlike Fox, Matti Schmid actually earned his way onto the PGA Tour before the direct pathway from the DP World Tour existed. Obviously, it was like being thrown in the deep-end for the talented 26 year old. He managed just two finishes of 6th or better across the 2023 PGA Tour season.
The German golfer finally looks to be finding his feet. He finished 10th at the Puerto Rico Open, on a golf course that again rewards driving distance. He then followed that up with an admirable 26th at The Players Championship and a 17th place at last week’s Valspar Championship.
Neither of those latter two really suit Schmid’s game. Both TPC Sawgrass and the Copperhead Course favour driving accuracy. Schmid ranks 61st for accuracy in this field over the last 12 months, but 21st for driving distance. SG: APP are strongest over 200+ yards, where he ranks just behind Dahmen in this field over the last 12 months. This looks much better for his game, and he ranks a fabulous bet at a juicy 200/1 for a golfer in form.
Mac Meissner
Finally, I made space on my card for Korn Ferry Tour graduate Mac Meissner.
We included Meissner on our betting card recently at the Puerto Rico Open and I’m happy to include him again at the Houston Open. He finished 23rd that week to cash our Top 40 and narrowly miss the Top 20 bet by one stroke. Again, that is a course that typically favours driving distance. He backed it up last week in a stronger field when 26th at the Valspar Championship whilst gaining strokes across the board. Meissner won on that course in college, which undoubtedly provided fond memories.
He has also played plenty of golf in Texas. Meissner went to college at Southern Methodist University in neighbouring Dallas. Mac Meissner won in college in Dallas when taking out the Royal Oaks Intercollegiate on a long, tree-lined Texas golf course. Meissner has plenty of driving distance to be playable this week, ranking 38th for driving distance since joining the PGA Tour. A return to a state he is familiar with when in good form could prove a perfect recipe this week.
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