Welcome everyone to my debut CBB Lines and Locks article! My name is Jake Faigus and I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for most popular College Basketball slates. Wednesday’s CBB slate is loaded with games. See which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
Villanova @ Seton Hall: This is a massive game from a bubble perspective in the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi has Villanova on the bubble as the last four byes and then Seton Hall is a step below in the Last Four In. This game could be an elimination game between the two with just under a week left in the regular season. Eric Dixon is a difference maker for the Wildcats and leads the way in scoring at 16.1 points per game. The metrics love the Wildcats with the NET rankings having them at 26 and then KenPom has them at 24 overall. They have excelled on defense, allowing 65.4 points per game, which is good for 23rd in the country in scoring defense. They are allowing a total field goal percentage of 40.9% from the field and they are 13th in adjusted defense on KenPom at 95.6. Seton Hall is not as loved on the metrics at 60th in KenPom overall and they are 68th in the NET. Kadary Richmond does it all for them at the guard spot. He leads the team in scoring at 16.2 points per game, in assists at 4.8 per game, and in steals at 2 per game. They do have great wins in conference against both UConn and Marquette, but they need to get more consistent overall. Seton Hall needs this game more than Villanova, but the Wildcats are the better team and should cement themselves in the NCAA Tournament with this win on the road.
Pick: Villanova wins/covers
#4 Tennessee @ #17 South Carolina: Tennessee was facing a gauntlet to end the regular season and they already passed one of their tests with a huge win against Alabama on the road this past weekend. South Carolina on the road is up next and the Gamecocks have been nothing short of one of the best stories in college basketball this season. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country and if they keep winning, they are going to be more widely seen as one of the 1-seeds included on that list with UConn, Houston, and Purdue. Tennessee is the 5th overall team in KenPom with the third ranked adjusted defense at 91.6. They are also allowing 67.4 points per game. The biggest difference for the Volunteers this season is that they have improved a lot on offense thanks in large part to Dalton Knecht. He has burst onto the scene this season and is averaging 20.6 points per game. He has been able to single-handedly carry the Volunteers if necessary and that was on display when he scored 39 points and 27 of those in the second half. South Carolina has hung their hat on mucking the game up this season and they did it already once to Tennessee this season on the road. The Gamecocks are 44th in KenPom and they are 42nd in adjusted defense at 99.8. Meechie Johnson has been a difference maker for the Gamecocks and is their best offensive player, averaging 14.2 points per game. Tennessee is on a roll right now and should get revenge against the Gamecocks after they beat them in Knoxville earlier this season.
Pick: Tennessee wins/covers
#2 UConn @ #8 Marquette: These are the two best teams in the Big East next to Creighton. Marquette will be without point guard Tyler Kolek in this game and they will not have him until the Big East tournament next week. They also have not had Oso Ighodaro due to injury and there is not as clear of a timetable surrounding him returning to the court. Marquette has been nothing but solid all season across the board. They are 14th in both the NET and in KenPom. Kam Jones is more than capable of filling an even bigger role with Kolek out and potentially Ighodaro. He already leads the team in scoring at 16.1 points per game. Marquette is firmly in the tournament as a 2-seed, but a win against UConn would go a long way for them to have an outside chance at a 1-seed. UConn has played like arguably the best team in the country at times this season. UConn won the national championship last season and lost some key players, but it has not mattered that much. Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer have emerged as the two best players for the Huskies throughout this season. Newton leads the team in points at 15.3, rebounds at 7.1, and in assists at 6 per game, while Spencer averages 14.8 points per game and then leads the team in three-point shooting at 45% and in steals at 1.4. When it comes to metrics, UConn is the third ranked team in the NET and is the second overall team in KenPom. They are 4th in adjusted offense at 126.7 and they are 17th in adjusted defense at 96.2. This is a prime spot for Marquette to get a massive win before the tournament, but with two of the better players injured in Kolek and Ighodaro it highly favors UConn even on the road. Expect Marquette to keep the game close, but UConn pulls away late.
Pick: UConn wins and covers
Back-to-back days that we get an eight-game NBA DFS slate and I’m here to cover all of your needs. While the DFS plays on Tuesday weren’t the best, the bets went one for two. It’s time to bounce back and get back on track. We’ll see who the best plays are and which game to target while breaking down the top two bets to play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 56.08 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into tonight’s slate as the third-highest projected player. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to face the Portland Trailblazers in what could be a one-sided matchup. The Thunder play at a fast pace, averaging 104 possessions per game while Portland sits at 102.4. The concern may be that this turns into a blowout game but that hasn’t stopped Gilgeous-Alexander from having success in fewer minutes of play. In three games this season, SGA has averaged 30.7 points, six assists, and 4.7 rebounds while averaging 26.2 minutes versus Portland. He held a 59.6% field-goal percentage versus them while averaging two steals per game.
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Luka Samanic $3,500 – 22.21 DK Points – 6.35 Value Rating
Luka Samanic will be a name to watch up until lock as he is currently projected to be in the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz. Samanic does hold the highest value rating on the projections, sitting at 6.35. If he does start, he’ll help open up a lot of salary room. He did log 23 minutes versus Washington on Monday and he recorded five points, two rebounds, and two assists while adding on two blocks and one steal on the defensive end. Give Luka Samanic nearly 25 minutes once again and he’ll be able to give us the value we need.
De’Aaron Fox- $8,600 – 46.94 DK points – 5.46 Value Rating
De’Aaron Fox staying in the core three will strictly ride on the value that opens up throughout the day. If we get more value and salary savings from guys in the Luka Samanic range, Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combo will be my favorite to run. The Sacramento Kings versus Los Angeles Lakers game is the game with the highest total on the slate and for good reason. De’Aaron Fox will see a matchup that benefits him as the Lakers allow opposing point guards to average 25.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game. In the two meetings this season already. Fox averaged 32.5 points with 6.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while averaging 2.5 steals. He’ll be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight once again.
Corey Kispert $4,500 – 24.78 DK points – 5.51 Value Rating
Corey Kispert is coming in with two bad performances back-to-back but has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, Kispert has averaged 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He has seen Orlando three times already this season but still was able to put up points versus them. In those three games, he averaged 14.3 points, two rebounds, and two assists while averaging nearly 21 minutes.
Cameron Payne $4,100 – 19.45 DK Points – 4.74 Value Rating
Cameron Payne should be in line for another start today as Tyrese Maxey is dealing with a mild concussion. With his start last night, Payne recorded 15 points, three rebounds, and one assist while getting one steal. Now, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off versus the Memphis Grizzlies. They currently allow guards to average 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. Overall, the 76ers will provide some value plays alongside their opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies.
Sacramento Kings (+114) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-135) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
The game to target is going to be a good one with the Sacramento Kings facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers once again. With the highest point total on the slate, the Kings and Lakers play at a fast-paced. The Kings currently average 103.7 possessions per game while the Lakers average 104.7. A slight boost for Kings players. While Domantas Sabonis is the highest-priced player in this matchup at $10,600, the rest of the Kings players add some good value. Keegan Murray sits at $5.8k and Harrison Barnes sits at $4.1k.
For the Los Angeles Lakers, Anthony Davis is priced over $10k with a $10.3k price tag, and his performances versus Sacramento this season haven’t been the best. Now, LeBron James sits under $10k with a $9.8k price tag and is averaging a triple-double versus Sacramento this season. He is averaging 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10 assists through two games. He makes for a great pivot from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. D’Angelo Russell would be the other Lakers starter to consider at $7k but he pushes that line. James makes for the best pay-up spot, alongside De’Aaron Fox when targeting this matchup.
Jalen Suggs over 9.5 Points -115 (bet365)
Jalen Suggs comes into tonight’s matchup with a projection of 13.61 points and an edge of 43.21% to hit the over. He gets a boost in pace as the Washington Wizards lead the league in possessions per game with 106.6. Suggs should have more opportunities created for him to score. In three meetings this season versus Washington, he has averaged 16 points per game.
Santi Aldama over 6.5 Rebounds +106 (FD Sportsbook)
With the Philadelphia 76erx being depleted due to injuries, Santi Aldama has a very strong case to hit the over. While his projection for rebounds is close to the 6.5 total, he has improved on the boards. He’s averaging 6.2 rebounds in his last five games and had back-to-back games with eight rebounds. He has also logged 32 or more minutes in three of those last five games.
Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 4.5 rebounds,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 4.5 rebounds. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.
These are the highest percentage win rates of the top NBA player props today.
These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.
Now to see the hand selected NBA player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.
Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.
PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.
We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.
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Preparation is key at The Masters.
The same goes for you.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.
You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.
That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.
Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.
As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.
There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.
Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.
Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.
Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Welcome back to NHL Top Bets. We only have three games tonight to choose from and I decided to roll with a bold underdog pick. The people made it known they wanted expanded NHL betting content, Win Daily listened and we have you covered below.
As always, think for yourself. The information below is only meant to supplement your knowledge and if you don’t agree with a portion, that’s fine, we’re all entitled to our own opinions. Also be sure to scour as many sportsbooks as possible before placing a bet as the odds tend to vary a little in most circumstances.
Aside from reading this 3/6 NHL Top Bets article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
*All odds below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Buffalo (+160) – DraftKings – 0.66 Units
It’s a three-game slate so I am only going to throw out one bet tonight, let’s make it a good one. We can be boring and aim for a Maple Leafs puck line and call it a night. That would make for your usual piece of crap standard industry NHL betting article. However, I think especially on such a small slate we can be a little bit spicier, and I don’t think Toronto is the right play.
Buffalo has a strong recent history against Toronto, where they have won twice this season. Over the last 10 games between these teams, Buffalo is 7-3-0. The Sabres are also in very strong form at the moment as they have won five of their last seven games. That stretch involved some very strong competition as well, such as Winnipeg, Vegas, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Carolina.
Ironically, the Sabres have been better on the road this season (15-12-3) then at home (14-17-1). Toronto has also been much better away this season (18-6-6) than at home (17-12-2). There’s not much upside or point in taking Buffalo on the +1.5 puck line here at -155. The last time these teams faced off Buffalo smashed the Leafs 9-3 and perhaps they simply have their number. Let’s take a break from all of the Auston Matthews and Maple Leaf’s love and go with the upset.
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