January 31, 2024

What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.

Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.

We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: Course Analysis

Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.

This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.

This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.

Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.

This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.

Pebble Beach Course Comps

Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.

The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.

The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.

Weather Analysis

You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.

Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.

Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.

Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).

What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.

You can find latest forecast details here.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

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Thank you for reading my Pebble Beach preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you can preview these here.

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