January 31, 2024

Before getting into our betting tips for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Pebble Beach Golf Links and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Pebble Beach golf betting tips below.

It was fantastic finally securing a winner after a month of runner-ups and close finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. To do so at the Farmers Insurance Open at 125/1 with Matthieu Pavon only made it even sweeter.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Jordan Spieth heads the list. The course history is obvious, as is the resurgence to form, and his correlated win at Harbor Town. However, the weather raises concern with the inherent volatility that this will bring. Likewise, with just the one start in 2024 question marks remain whether the improvement in performance is here to stay. He was simply a tad too short when compared to my preferred option at the top of the market.

Russell Henley was considered at 50/1, although the Sony Open was again a reminder that he may struggle to get across the line as often as he should. I preferred to emphasise putting more this week as well, which contributed to his exclusion along with Chris Kirk at 80/1. Finally, Noren holds obvious abilities in the wind. He was tough to leave out. He struggles in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Additionally, he has missed the cut here twice when hitting the ball relatively well. I’d have likely taken him at 100/1 rather than the 80s on offer.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated Monday 29 January 8:00am

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite
5pts E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Speculative Play
0.5pt Straight Forecast Homa to beat Schauffele +20000 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite

Once I saw the weather forecast, there was one name I wanted to head my betting card if we could get the right number. Having opened at just 15/1 in the UK, I was very pleased to see Max Homa open at 22/1 in win only markets.

Homa’s aptitude for performing in his home state of California is well documented. He is a winner at Riviera, Torrey Pines, and twice at the Fortinet Championship in Napa. An element of comfortability in the area and, particularly, on the poa annua surfaces could well be key this week.

What excited me about the weather was Homa’s clear aptitude to find the top of the leaderboard in such conditions. His 2022 Wells Fargo Championship and Fortinet Championship wins both came in miserable wet conditions. Perhaps some of the comes to his mental toughness. He has the word “Relentless” tattooed on his right wrist and would often tell his Cal teammates “you have to be a bulldog, you just got to be tough”.

Max Homa has finished 10-14-7 his last three starts on this course, all when this was still a full field event. He should benefit from the removal of Monterey Peninsula, his weakest course of the three. Of no surprise, he is one of the best in the world for approach from 100-150 yards. Additionally, he gets the easier but more exposed Pebble Beach in calmer weather on Thursday.

Homa has finished no worse than 21st since June 2023, a run of 11 straight tournaments. More remarkably, he has finished 14th or better in the 10 events since July 2023. The majors are the obvious next step for him, but winning on an iconic course like Pebble Beach will be high on his goals as he is in our betting tips.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Outside Homa, we move right down the board to golfers 80/1 or longer. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, we have assigned some heavy weighting on Homa. Secondly, in a event likely to prove volatile with the weather and a small 80 man field there could well be some decent value at the lower end of the board this week.

The first of those is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. A three time winner at DP World Tour level, Bezuidenhout went awfully close to his debut PGA Tour victory when runner-up at the American Express two weeks ago. A missed cut at Torrey Pines was unsurprising, being a week after that run and on a golf course that really is far too long for him.

Bezuidenhout has played here just once for a 14th placed finish. Notably, this came after an indifferent opening 71 on the now excluded Monterey Peninsula. He gained +1.90 strokes to the field at Spyglass Hills. However, he did by far his best work at Pebble Beach. Closing with rounds of 66-69 there, he gained a cumulative +6.75 strokes to the field on the weekend.

He does his best approach work from 100-150 yards, sitting in the top 20% in the world over the last 12 months. His game really does look to be elevating of late. He is the best in the field over the past 3 months for SG: APP and 6th for SG: Putting. He is also in the top 25% in this field for SG: ATG over the past 6 months. That combination of the key approach range with an excellent short-game is ideal for Pebble Beach. Ideally, he gets the first tee-time on Pebble Beach for Thursday.

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value

Hadwin looks to be clear value at 100/1 this week. Another on the improve, he was 6th when last sighted at the American Express in La Quinta California.

He has a great record on this course, with form of 39-18-MC-16. The latest 16th place finish included losing 4 strokes on the greens. Given he has gained significantly on the greens in his other three appearances, it speaks to his suitability on this unique approach test. He is also the 9th best putter in this field over the past 6 months.

The approach data from 100-150 yards is some of the best you can find. He is in the top 2% for good shot percentage from that yardage and, additionally, he is in the top 7% for strokes gained in this approach bucket in the world over the last 12 months. For this particular field, he ranks 10th for SG: APP from this yardage. Hadwin also is the third group out on Thursday at Pebble Beach.

Performance in wild weather is also evident. Most notably, he finished 9th in the extremes of The Players Championship in 2022. The benefit of being accurate but also decently long off the tee, combined with a superb chipper and putter, will be an asset in these conditions.

Andrew Putnam

Finally, we round out our selections with Andrew Putnam. Putnam’s lack of distance should be no issue on this golf course, with his excellent driving accuracy a potential benefit in the high winds.

Again, sticking to the key approach range of 100-150 yards really identifies Putnam. He is 7th for SG:APP in this field over the past 12 months there. He is in the top 95% or better in the world for SG, GIR, Good Shot % and Poor Shot Avoidance for approach in that range over the last year.

A 6th place finish here in 2022 was noteworthy, where he played very well at Spyglass Hill and in his first of the two rounds at Pebble Beach. An average final round can somewhat be excused to nerves when holding the joint 54 hole lead. He will be better for that experience, and arrives here a much improved prospect than 2 years ago.

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