January 23, 2024

This week we are at The Farmers tourney in ( flooding at the moment) Torry Pines, California. There are 2 inches of water on the course and it’s closed to the players and anybody else. With a Wednesday start it will be a mighty effort to have the course ready. The reason for the day early start is that the PGA has no desire to be embarrassed by TV ratings and go up against the NFL Championships on Sunday. Regardless of when or if they get started Win Daily Sports has the tools and experts to assist you with roster construction. The Farmers Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

We have two courses instead of three this week, simply named the north and south course. The players split the two courses over the first two days and after the cut they play the much more challenging south course on Friday and Saturday. You will not see a 25 under par score anywhere near here. The north course also plays from 1 to 3 strokes easier than the south course. The Torrey Pines skill set consists of the short game and putting. Longer iron play is key here. You have a 7700 yard course that’s extremely water logged, so buckets this week are 150-175 and 200+. Xander, Morikawa ,Hoge, Finau, Straka, and Suh fit the bill. Last year the south course putting was the toughest over any other course played in 2023. Good putters from 15 feet to the pin include English, McNealy, Suh and Grillo.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit missed the the cut for the first time in 11 tries to bring our record to 10-1 last eleven.. Our biscuit pick this week will be in the Win Daily Sports Discord Wednesday evening. Win Daily Sports is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild weather with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday in the early wave. A “Marine Layer” may set in due to all the rain and flooding. It brings in light fog, clouds, light precipitation and much colder temperatures. There may be an afternoon wave edge. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Tuesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the Farmers Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

These Farmers Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:24 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

********Leverage Plays******

The big boss Jason requested that we add leverage plays to assist you with additions to your player pool and roster. Lets say golfer A is 34 % owned. You have three choices. Double (2X) your exposure (have 68 % of golfer A), sometimes even more, OR fade golfer A completely. So if you have golfer A in 7 out of every ten lineups and he crashes and burns, the only money you will see on Sunday is the greenbacks that go to some other DK player. If you fade him completely and he smashes you’ll have the same outcome.

How do we lower risk while trying to gain on the field? Your 3rd option is have golfer A in 3 out of every ten contests (roster the field average.) Then find one to two other players who are cheaper, lower owned, and who have the best shot at equaling or surpassing Golfer A or even coming up a fraction short of golfer A. This is pure leverage.

If you have two golfers at 3 % and 5% ownership and your other 4 golfers are the exact same as 300 other entries it means it’s down to your last two golfers versus their two (2V2) Most players will use their optimizer of choice which will always come in at much higher ownership for the last 2 golfers. You may have 5 golfers the same and it comes down to your 1 versus their one golfer (1V1). If your ownership, 3 & 5 %, goes up against their ownership % and your last two golfers have almost the exact same score as their last two, guess what? You just passed 300 golfers. Absolute leverage.

Our very own Stix Picks last week rostered Nick Dunlap who was owned by .14 of the field. That’s one tenth of 1%. Instead of earning twice his entry fee he finished 6th and earned thousands of dollars. For big GPP’s you only have to be different on one golfer, just one, perhaps two in the Milly Makers. Leverage is math, it could mean the difference in adding 5 zero’s onto your winnings.

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: P Cantlay. (Morikawa and Homa will have double + the ownership % on Patrick. Look at it like this – Would you take Morikawa at -230 over Cantlay? Homa at -230 over Cantlay (just to win 100)? If its a no, you are correct and Cantlay is leverage.)

Upper Mid: Jason Day 9500 salary, 12% owned VS Sungjae IM, 9900 salary and 20% owned and Aberg, 9700 salary and 17% owned)

Mid Tier: Will Z (8K salary and 9.9% ownership VS Bradley 8900 and 22.1 % owned, and Theegala 8700 salary and 19% ownership)

Low Tier: Nick Hardy (7K salary and 2.8% owned VS List 7800 salary and 17 % Owned, and Taylor Montgomery7400 and 12 % owned)

Bottom of the Barrel: Nate Lashley (6500 and 1% ownership)

My picks for The Farmers

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: English

Low Tier: Michael Kim

Out in Left Play: Hardy

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Bradley

FR Leader: Taylor Moore (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well.

Stix placed 6th in a huge GPP last week by rostering Dunlap, the eventual champion, and the only amateur in the tourney. Stix has a set of gorilla balls the size of Kong’s. It also paid out thousands of dollars. Congrats Stix! The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Congrats for ANOTHER sweet profit placement last week at the AMEX, as well as numerous top 5 and top 10 ‘s as well!

***** Parting Shots *****

A cute little girl walks into a pet store and goes up to the owner standing behind the counter. He says, “hello little miss, how can I help you? She says, ” I need a bunny wabbit.” “He goes, awww, ok.” We have all different types ” We have big ones, little ones, grey ones, brown ones, rabbits with their ears standing straight up and some with floppy ears that hang down!” ‘What will it be?” She stands there, thinks for quite a while, then looks up, and says, ‘I really don’t think my python gives a fuck.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!