2024 NFL Season Team Futures – Win Totals & More

by Dave Gloeckner

The new NFL Season starts today.  There is a beacon of light shining down on each fan as their team starts a season fresh, with no wins and no losses. Well, maybe the beacon misses Foxborough, MA but they’ve enjoyed enough success that this downturn was inevitable. With hope and optimism budding, even in the small corners of the country such as Green Bay, we open the fall with our favorite sport in America, the National Football League.

In 2022 we hit big, posting a 9-1 record in futures (click the link here).  Last year was a mixed bag as we posted a 3-4 record in the futures market. But overall, the process was sound (Green Bay over wins, Indianapolis over wins, Minnesota under wins) as we just missed out on a huge payday with several teams missing their mark by 0.5 games (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Seattle) and just bad luck (Aaron Rodgers injury).

If you’re new to the Futures market, specifically team win totals, then let me refresh my strategy here.  Futures are a poor investment but can be wildly entertaining.  That’s because you must invest money upfront (now) and allow it to sit for 4+ months before seeing a return (January).  So don’t overcommit your bankroll here.  I recommend playing a low percentage of your bankroll, approximately 10-20%, and diversify your picks.  Look at win totals and normal juiced options but also play some longer shots like Division titles, Conference Champions and Super Bowl winners.

As with years past, I look at some major principals, outside of Head Coach changes and major personnel developments. These include, but aren’t limited to:

1. PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (OVERPERFORMED)
2. PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (UNDERPERFORMED)
3. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL / FUMBLE RECOVERIES
4. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
5. PLAYOFF TEAM TURNOVER
6. CLOSE GAME RESULTS
7. QB PLAY / HEAD COACHING

Some numbers don’t always tell the truth but point differential compared to overall wins is a great indicator of team luck. That’s where Pythagorean Win Percentage comes into play. The top teams that were on the luck side, i.e. OVERPERFORMED, were from the same state:

• Pittsburgh Steelers won 10 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 7.8 wins
• Philadelphia Eagles won 11 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 8.6 wins

The top teams that were unlucky, i.e. UNDERPERFORMED, had playoff expectations but failed to meet them:

• Los Angeles Chargers won 5 games but Pyth Theorem had them 7.1 wins
• New Orleans Saints won 9 games but Pyth Theorem had them at 10.5 wins

So obviously those teams will be looked at for what we call regression. They stood at the farthest side of a normally distributed curve and will likely swing back to the middle unless they met some other criteria we factor.

I won’t bore you with all the metrics and data that was reviewed. But instead, I’ll send you off to the meat and potatoes of this article and explain my rationale there. Hopefully your team is on the plus side of my bets. But if not, the beacon is still shining and keep your optimism high. Because it’s NFL kickoff weekend and nothing beats that in all of professional sports.

#1 ATLANTA FALCONS over 9.5 wins (-140 DK) and win NFC South (-130 DK)

Guess who the betting favorite is to win the NFC South? Not the three-time defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs. Not the New Orleans Saints who have the most wins in the past 7 years and won the division four times in a row prior to the Bucs run. Nope, it’s the Dirty Birds from Atlanta as they made a huge offseason splash in several areas to help bridge the gap between a team ready to win and one that found ways to lose.

First, the Falcons made significant changes to the two most important positions in football, the head coach and quarterback. In comes Raheem Morris who replaces Arthur Smith as head coach. Morris is a familiar face in Atlanta as he spent six seasons with the Falcons from 2015-2020. He finished 2020 as the interim head coach and helped the Falcons play competitively and finish at 4-8 (5 losses were by one score).

Next, the QB position was addressed as the Falcons moved on from a massive error in talent judgement and sent Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke packing. This was off the heels of a year with Marcus Mariota, one in which he ended up quitting after being benched. So they brought in a steady arm, one comparable to Matt Ryan who played that position in ATL for 14 years, in Kirk Cousins. They then drafted his replacement in Michael Penix, but that’s for another conversation. The good news is, they have two QB’s that can play and a coach that will hold them accountable.

Then, let’s look at some of issues the other issues Atlanta had. They were 31st in turnover differential at -12. The Falcons threw the 5^th most interceptions with 18 and most came at critical points in the game. And their luck wasn’t very good either as they recovered just 42.1% of fumbles they created, last in the league.

Lastly, the Falcons have what is ranked as the easiest schedule in the league. That’s because of the weakness of the NFC South but it does help they got paired with the AFC West and NFC East.

The Falcons fit the profile of a team that is ready to jump on the scene. From a revamped defense to major additions on offense as well as now letting loose an underused beat in Bijan Robinson. They fit most of my principles and believe they will rise to the top of what is an open division.  

#2 CINCINNATI BENGALS over 10.5 wins (-120 DK) and win AFC SOUTH (+145)

The Bengals, in a way, remind me of why I was high on the Green Bay Packers last season. A lot of that was based on HC Matt LaFleur who didn’t forget how to coach in one season. Coming off three-straight 13 win seasons, the Packers faltered in 2022 behind a lot of drama with their QB. And they fell off bettors’ radars as a win total of just 7.5 was set for the team from upper Wisconsin. By now, you know how the Packers fared as they are now a trendy pick as a Super Bowl contender.

Cincinnati won 22 games over the span of 2021 to 2022 and reached the Super Bowl and AFC Championship in those years. One could argue that they were a controversial call away from another Super Bowl appearance. And then, the wheels fell off in 2023 as they faced a myriad of injuries including one to their most prominent player, Joe Burrow.

But like LaFleur, Bengals HC Zac Taylor didn’t forget how to coach football. Instead, he navigated with what he had, which wasn’t much. Now his prized QB had a full offseason to heal, and they hit a home run in free agency by getting a “A” grade by PFF (Adding T Trent Brown was their best move).

Additionally, the Bengals are in a division that had two of the four highest overperforming teams according to Pythagorean win percentage; the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Those two teams are still mired in quarterback purgatory and could have major regression because of it.

Lastly, we look at the schedule which is favorable according to most sites. One prominent one, Sharp Football Analysis, has the Bengals with the 3^rd easiest schedule. By finishing in last place in the AFC South in 2023 the Bengals picked up games against other last place teams in the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers. Compare that to Cleveland, whose extra games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. That could be a two game swing in an already competitive division.

It’s a combination of coach, QB, and schedule that gives me high hopes for the Bengals. And while the number is high, the winner of the AFC North has won double digit games every year since 1990.

#3 TAMPA BAY BUCS under 7.5 wins (+120 DK)

The Bucs were supposed to be in transition following the retirement of the GOAT QB in Tom Brady. But they ended up overachieving and winning a playoff game and then pushing Detroit for three quarters in the Divisional Round. And most of that was due to the return of the chef, as QB Baker Mayfield had a career year for Tampa. But there were also some things that stand out and aren’t repeatable.

First, the Bucs forced the most fumbles in the league last season and had the 7^th best turnover differential. This came from a defense that allowed the 10^th most yards in the league which was the most for any playoff team outside of the Philadelphia Eagles. Next, they had the 3^rd best redzone defense in the league which came with some level of surprise. Tampa was the 30^th best redzone defense in the league in 2022 and reduced the TD percentage allowed from 65.4% to 45%. That jump doesn’t align with the overall play by their defense (4^th most pass yards allowed in the league).

And frankly, I see the Division as much better in 2024. Tampa has a good roster but it is getting older in key areas and they still have a weak offensive line and inability to run the ball. The Saints still have a good defense and underperformed in 2023. The Panthers finally have some stable pieces and look to have improved offensively. Finally, as discussed earlier, the Falcons look to have pieces in place on both sides of the ball to be a formidable opponent.

The last piece is this, we see playoff turnover from year to year at ~50%. I’ve already highlighted two teams that I expect to make the playoffs who didn’t in 2023 (Atlanta and Cincy). So there has to be some teams that take a step back. And for me, Tampa is at the top of that list. It’s been a good run down on the West Coast of Florida but we will finally see the negative regression that was expected a year ago.

#4 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over 7.5 wins (-140 DK)

If at first you don’t succeed, we try again. And that’s where I’m at with the Seahawks. While they let me down last year, the Seahawks have the ingredients to be a factor in the NFC West again. First off, it’s not like Seattle was awful last year as they won 9 games. Which by the way is the same number they won in 2022. Two straight winning seasons but yet their win total is set at just 7.5? And that’s with a 3^rd place schedule? Call me bullish, but I like those odds.

The biggest factor in the down year for Seattle was the defense, as they fell to 28^th in DVOA. So, the Seahawks swiftly went after a defensive guru. But surprisingly it wasn’t one of their former own in Dan Quinn. Instead, they baited and hooked Baltimore DC Mike MacDonald to take over the head coaching duties from Pete Carroll. Prior to helping Baltimore to the #1 overall defense, MacDonald helped Michigan rise to a top ten defense under Jim Harbaugh. And as you know, Jim’s brother John is the HC in Baltimore, so he comes from a good coaching tree.

We also have a new OC in Ryan Grubb. If you heard me on the Win Daily Sirius show this summer, I love the addition of Grubb. The new OC is an intriguing play caller who has a history in the Pacific Northwest coming from the Washington Huskies. While it’s his first stint in the NFL, he will bring some creativity and intuition to an offense that has playmakers in DK Metcalf, JSN, Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Lockett.

The key here is the progression of the defense. They allowed the second most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns. And the Hawks have the right person in place to turn that around quickly. Adding Byron Murphy III and Christian Haynes in the draft is a good start. And re-signing DT Leonard Williams helps. Then there’s the schedule which ranks 16^th hardest, but the easiest in the division. Call me the 14^th man this year as I root on Seattle to pay me back for last year’s near miss.

#5 PITTSBURGH STEELERS under 8.5 wins (-145 DK)

The Steelers pulled off a miracle last season by making the playoffs. It was probably HC Mike Tomlin’s best coaching job outside his Super Bowl victory. The Steelers had a -20 point differential yet won 10 games. The offense was an issue as they scored just 17.9 points/game which was 5^th least in the league.

What stood out the most, and this was like two teams I hit on in recent years, was Pittsburgh’s record in one-score games. Which was a 9-2 mark. The Vikings in 2022 won 11 games by one score and we jumped on the under last year and won. Same situation with the Raiders in 2021.

Another thing to realize is the Steelers, even with a terrible offense, turned the ball over just 16 times which was the 2^nd least in the NFL. They are now handing the keys over to Russell Wilson, who threw 19 INT’s in his last two seasons in Denver. If the offense is to improve under new OC Arthur Smith, it may also come with more turnovers.

Finally, the Steelers have the 2^nd hardest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis. Their fortunes of making the playoffs turned their 2024 schedule into a tough undertaking. If there is any coach that can pull out another miracle again, it’s Mike Tomlin. But in reality, this looks like a team headed to his first under 0.500 season of Tomlin’s career.

#6 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over 8.5 wins (-110 DK)

Duval looks to be in the shadows once again. And just like a Jaguar in the wild, that’s where they like to be. Jacksonville came out of nowhere in 2022 and won the AFC South after finishing in last place the season before. They were then given the pole position heading into the 2023 season and didn’t handle it well. The schedule, along with injuries and struggles on offense, factored into a disappointing season.

Although we classify last season as a down year, the Jags did win 9 games and ended the season in 2^nd place in the AFC South. That included a 3-1 record against the Texans and Colts. But it was the season ending loss to Tennessee that stung and will be motivation heading into 2024.

The offseason was solid as the Jags let go of WR Calvin Ridley who didn’t mesh well with QB Trevor Lawrence or WR Christian Kirk. And they replaced him with Gabe Davis from Buffalo and early draft pick Brian Thomas Jr of LSU.

The Jags were also bitten by the turnover bug as they were overall -3. But the issue was on offense as they were 2^nd in the league in fumbles (16) and had the 4^th most turnovers (30). Minimizing turnovers will be paramount for the Jags and it’s something they can rectify as Jacksonville was a +5 in 2022 ranking 7^th best in the NFL.

The schedule also looks to be fair as the Jags rank 15^th in the league. But more importantly, it’s one of the easiest schedules down the home stretch as they have three games in their last five against projected last place teams in Tennessee and Las Vegas.

Head Coach Doug Pederson has proven himself to be an underdog his whole career. He thrives in that role. And with all eyes on Houston, I like Doug to rally his team and make a push for the AFC South once again.

#7:  PHILADELPHIA EAGLES TO WIN THE NFC EAST (-125 DK)

No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons in 20 years. And with all the turmoil going on in Dallas, they look primed to take a step backwards. The Cowboys O-Line is weakened, and the defense played over their head. Then there is doubt at RB as well as QB since Jerry didn’t sign his boy Dak to an extension. I do think Washington will be better this year. The Commanders have a potential franchise QB in place, but they are a year or two away from competing with the big boys. I’m off the Giants, as they let their franchise RB leave for nothing and have no confidence in QB Daniel Jones.

By that math, we’re left with the Philadelphia Eagles. And that might scare some, as the lasting images of the 2023 Eagles was a team that gave up. How does HC Nick Sirianni build back the confidence and trust in his team? That will be the biggest issue to overcome in the 2024 season.

The addition of OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio is a great start for accountability. Both have coached top units in this league and are immediate upgrades to their incumbents. We also have to factor in the Eagles offseason, which was a smashing success. They swung in FA and landed RB Saquon Barkley to help in the run game. The Birds also added key defensive players like LB Devin White and DE Bryce Huff to fill holes in the front seven. And then Howie Roseman found a way to fix the DB issues by drafting two of the top prospects at that position in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. He also found a way to fill their biggest training camp hole by trading for WR Jahan Dotson.

Simply put, this is a put up or shut up year for Nick Sirianni. In fact, it’s likely a year that determines his fate as Eagles HC. And based on what I’ve heard and seen, I think he’s learned a lot from the last two years and will step up and have one of his best seasons yet.

#8:  LA CHARGERS over 8.5 wins (-125 DK)

I could be drinking the Kool-Aide here. As we have seen a lot of bets come in on the Chargers solely based on their hiring of HC Jim Harbaugh. But while that factors in my handicapping, the Chargers 2023 misfortunes are also something that aligns with 2024 being a turnaround season.

First off, the Chargers were much better than a 5-12 team. Their Pythagorean win total was 7.1 which was 2.1 wins over their actual performance. This was due to a league high 8 losses in one-score games. Which feels like same old Chargers.

And then there’s their inexplicable ability to run the ball last season. They had the 6^th fewest rushing yards (1642) and 6^th fewest yards per attempt (3.8). Which explains why they used their first round pick on OT Joe Alt. Pairing him with Rashawn Slater could add up to being one of the best O-Lines in the league this season. The Chargers also reshaped the running back room bringing in Ravens castoffs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who will both bring a form of physicality they haven’t seen in years.

Next, I’m still a believer in QB Justin Herbert. His outside weapons aren’t deep but they are young in Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson. And he’s now listening to a former NFL QB who has had success in this league. I expect Herbert to flourish this year and have one of his best seasons yet.

Finally, the Chargers have the 2^nd easiest schedule in the league. They have to win games in their division to get to 9+ wins, which they should be able to do against QB’s Bo Nix and Gardner Minshew. And take this as additional fuel, Harbaugh took a 6-10 team and turned them into a 13-3 team in his first season in SF. I’m buying, and drinking, the punch out in LA.

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