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Home / Archives for September 23, 2023
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September 23, 2023

The evening slate features five games starting at 6:40 ET. Let’s find some values and upside so we can cash in before NFL this weekend!

MLB DFS Aces

Logan Gilbert vs Texas Rangers

Gilbert has the unenviable task of facing a tough Rangers lineup in the heat of a playoff race. That said, he has been fantastic this season, and our options on this short slate are limited. His last time out against this team went very, very well. He struck out 10 over 6.2 innings of work while allowing just 2 ER. That start was all the way back in May, but the upside is there.

Gilbert has asserted himself as a solid pitcher who doesn’t allow many baserunners. He has just a 1.08 WHIP on the season, and 182 punchouts in 179 innings of work.

The Mariners look ready to roll into the postseason, and Gilbert is a solid play tonight,

Connor Phillips vs Pittsburgh Pirates

The Reds are limping toward a potential playoff spot, but Phillips is cheap and has some upside in this spot. His last start was fantastic, striking out 7 over 7 innings of work while allowing just 2 ER against the Twins. The Pirates offense has been hot, but is mostly devoid of top-tier talent.

There aren’t a lot of cheaper options that I feel decent about on this slate, but Phillips fits the bill against a Pirates lineup that is ultimately a below average one.

Clayton Kershaw vs San Fransisco Giants

The Giants have seen their playoff hopes diminish to a dying heartbeat. They need a win in the worst way. Perennial Giants killer and future HOF pitcher Clayton Kershaw doesn’t give much confidence to their chances here. Kershaw has only pitched no more than 5 innings since his return, but there is plenty of time for him to return value here.

The Dodgers will likely keep his pitch count in check here, but this is a Giants team that strikes out at a high rate, and the Dodgers would love nothing more than to bury their nemesis on their way to the playoffs.

Kershaw isn’t a must play by any means, but our options are limited, so he is in play here.

MLB DFS Stacks

San Diego Padres vs Jake Woodford

The Padres are getting hot, but it is too little, too late. That doesn’t matter for MLB DFS, and we are rolling with the Padres to smash a bad pitcher here. Woodford owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in a 42.1 inning sample this season.

Sign me up.

Give me Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Ha-Seong Kim here.

This team is going down swinging (finally), and I’m all aboard the Padres train, even though I don’t believe the leash for Woodford will be very long. The Cardinals’ bullpen hasn’t exactly been great either.

Houston Astros vs Jordan Lyles

This one is obvious. The Astros are a top-tier offense facing one of the worst starters in MLB. Lyles has shown some signs of life, but overall his numbers are still pretty terrible. He sports a 6.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 38 HR allowed on the season.

Bombs away.

You all know I love Yordan Alvarez, but Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, the old man Jose Altuve, and even Jose Abreu are in play here.

Lyles loves to give up the longball at a historic pace, and the Astros will take advantage.

Cincinnati Reds vs Bailey Falter

Call me a homer if you want, but the Reds are in a good spot here. Falter is a contact pitcher who has just 59 strikeouts in 78.2 innings of work this season with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Reds are desperate for a win at this point, and their young lineup has plenty of upside here.

Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Joey Votto, TJ Friedl are my favorite targets here. The whole offense is in play here, as the ceiling is the limit here. Falter is an average pitcher at best, and the Reds are going to make some noise tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Lots of bad pitching to take advantage of on Saturday night, let’s make some cash!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let’s chat!

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Are you looking for an article that can be used for Season Long, DFS, and Props? If so, the search is over. I introduce you to the Jigsaw Pieces, an article that is packed with insightful information, very opinionated takes, and multiple ways to make a profit. No matter what kind of contest you’re playing, there’s a piece of the puzzle for you!

Games to Watch

LAC vs. MIN — O/U 54 PTs and could be a Fantasy Dream

  • K. Cousins & Addison — Captain Kirk has 88 attempts in 2 games and is averaging 351 YPG. With a very suspect Chargers secondary, this number will only go up. We all know JJ and Hock are studs, but don’t forget about Addison. The rookie has been extremely consistent in his 1st 2 games with his go routes, red zone looks and 2TDs. Many will say his big play ability makes him a liability in fantasy as a TD dependent WR with only 7 catches, but I disagree. JJ and Hock will always be the target monsters, leaving Addison open in the zone for big plays. Even if he doesn’t score, his DJax ability makes him PPR noteworthy each week.
  • M. Williams — This is the Mike Williams week. Over the last 2 years, when Williams has eclipsed double-digit targets (8 games) in a game he has averaged 8 receptions and 115 yards, while scoring 6 TDs. Hint: This will be a double digit target week and now you know what to do.

Props to Watch

  • K. Cousins – OVR 25.5 Pass Completions +100
  • J. Addison – OVR 50.5 Rec Yards -120
  • M. Williams – 75+ ALT REC Yards +110

ATL vs. Detroit — Sneaky Game of the Week

  • B. Robinson — With all the injuries, easily the best fantasy RB not named CMC. One thing to keep your eye on is him locked in as the #1 pass catcher on the team. He has given us a 21 PPG average and he still hasn’t been given full control. This could easily be his Shaun Alexander type breakout game.
  • J. Gibbs & S. LaPorta — With the injury to Monty and the fact that Gibbs already has 11 targets in 2 games, just tells us all we need to know when he doubles his touches. LaPorta has been incredibly consistent with a 10+ YPC average, showing his ability to make big plays underneath coverage. Against a team who will blitz a ton this week, he will find plenty of room to operate.

Props to Watch

  • B. Robinson – OVR 97.5 Rush + Rec Yds -115
  • J. Gibbs – OVR 23.5 Rec Yds -115
  • S. LaPorta – 50+ ALT Rec Yds +155

Confident Studs (Pieces that will fit your frame)

  • C. Ridley — A great spot against a Défense that’s without their Top Cover CB. He only had 2 catches last week, but has 19 targets in 2 games. The overall #1 option in the Jacksonville offense in a smash spot this week.
  • Zay Flowers –  15 Targets in 2 weeks, has the confidence of his QB, and OBJ is out. Sneaky bump is with the weather being rainy and windy, a few jet sweeps and short screens could be in the cards here too.
  • B. Robinson Jr. – He is 4th in total carries behind CMC, Henry, and Pollard, showing major consistency and confidence. Don’t be scared here. History suggests, even in losses, BRob still gets carries and mass volume.
  • K. Walker — Walker is an easy play and is facing a 31st ranked Defense who gave up 2 TDs to a guy named Tony Jones Jr. last week. Start away!

Skeptical Stars (Pieces you force into slots that may not fit)

  • D. Carr – He couldn’t muster a TD against a suspect defense at best in Carolina and is sporting an ugly 7 YPP. I don’t care who he is facing, I’ll pass until I see better.  Draftkings $5500 — Value sits with CJ Stroud $5400 + D. Ridder $5000
  • D. Pierce – One word, UGLY. DP hasn’t cracked a run of longer than 10 yards, averages 2.7 YPC and is sitting behind an O’Line that is minus 4+ starters. Look in another direction fast! Draftkings $5200 — Value sits with T. Allgeier $5100 + J. Ford $4800

Diamond in the Rough (Pieces that could make the Mona Lisa of all puzzles)

  • Tank Dell – He has a 71% Target to Catch Ratio making the most of his 14 targets so far this season. He was a preseason darling and the Texans have confidence in him as a focal point of the offense behind Nico. Draftkings $3600 Prop to Hit — Anytime TD +370
  • Desmond Ridder — Pure Punt Play here. Only 34 attempts in 2 games and the 6.8 YPP Average doesn’t scream start me. However, long plays of 34 & 45, along with 39 yds rushing last week and a TD, shows they are building something intriguing around him. This could easily be a 25+ point week and a winning piece to your lineup. Draftkings $5000 — Prop to Hit — OVR 211.5 Pass + Rush Yards -115
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Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

Max Verstappen’s ($15,600) return to P1 for Sunday’s race was expected, but not to the tune of almost 1.5 seconds. Expect to hear the National Anthem of the Netherlands as it’s Max’s race to lose. Sergio Perez ($10,200) starts in P5 but looked well off in practice, take advantage of that through Red Bull Racing ($14,600) as they are the top option for the constructor position.

McLaren

The McLarens line up right behind Max with Oscar Piastri ($7600) starting in P2 and Lando Norris ($9400) attacking from P3. The McLarens ($7900) perform very well on the hard compound tyre which is the preferred racing tyre at the Suzuka race track. If you had to pick one Lando is the expected favorite to maximize points in your draftkings lines, but as always this is racing and volatility is inherent. Have exposure in GPPS

Mercedes

After George Russell ($8800) threw it all away on the final lap and torpedoed 80% of the field last week it might be tough to go back to him this weekend. I ain’t doin it. George can get desperate for wins sometimes and he does things that make you regret rostering him. I like the Mercedes($9500) race chances this weekend however and will want to get some in my constructor position. I’m a Lewis Stan so I will always play him in GPPS. Mix and Match the aforementioned drivers in your GPPS.

Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso ($6800) had pace in all three practice sessions over the weekend. His Aston should finish in the top 10 and a heavy chance of beating Lance Stroll ($6000).

Ferrari

Carlos Sainz ($8400) vs Chares Leclerc ($8200) has been fun this year at times, but some of the heaviest blows come by Sainz and last week’s performance at SIngapore was one for the books. He’s in good form and a good option, and I hope he’s popular as Ill try to go somewhere else with my salary as it feels like splitting hairs between the Ferrai ($8800) drivers this Japanese Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc is the preferred driver of the two making him a solid cash game play. We should expect top 10 finishes from the Ferrari but with limited DFS upside.

Alfa Romeo

If the Alfa is inconsistent it should be assumed their drivers will be too. It did not work out well last race, but I like Bottas ($4400) over Zhou ($3200) the past 4 races, and that will continue here. Have a lil Zhou though, probably in the Captain spot if the race falls his way. 

Alpine

The Alpine qualified true to form in the front of the midfield. Definitely dont play both in the smae line up, and limited upside overall. They will be low owned though so Pierre Gasly ($5600) or Esteban Ocon ($5200) might be worthy of a large field GPP lineup. Dont go crazy

Williams

Albon ($4800) lurks right outside the top 10, and has proven that it doesnt take much for him to hit the top 10. Ill fit him in where I can as he has been priced correctly thgouhout the season. Albon casts a large shadow over the Williams garage and in the coldest part of the shade you will find Logan Sargent ($3000). Logan Sargent will be the featured player as hes the stone cold minimum and you can do whatever you want with him in your lineups.

Alpha Tauri

Yuki Tsunoda ($4200) gave his Japanese countrymen a good reason to cheer as he put himself into Q3. A sprinkle cant hurt, but I would not be heavy on the play at all. That being said Liam Lawson ($4000) continues to impress and makes Max/Red Bull Racing lineups a little easier to put together. Liam will be popular.

Haas

If you find yourself in this price range in GPPs the best thing to do is to have a sprinkle of both Kevin magnussen ($3600) and Niko Hulkenberg ($3600), very limited, not in the same line up, as all youre trying to do is catch the 5 beat teammate and 1 finish point.

Advice:

 When building lineups Logan Sargent captain allows for viable Max/Red Bull Racing lineups. If going this way in GPPS, make sure to rotate through the close priced teammates and embrace the violitailty. 

I like taking my more long shot style plays in the captain spot, so I will play around with that. Those would include either of the Haas drivers, Zhou, and Lawson. Yuki is the highest I will go when building like that. Those should not feature Max Verstappen either, so true GPP lineups.

As always if you have any questions get at me in discord @tcuz86

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Each gameweek we will go position by position and rank our favorite plays. You will see our core plays, pivots, and value plays at each position in the rankings. After the rankings, a brief synopsis will help you build your lineups. Lastly, you will find Drago’s Best Bets for the top bets of the weekend. If you are new to soccer DFS, you need to know that lineups don’t come out until around 1 hour before 10 a.m. (Eastern) lock. Ensure you are around pre-lock in our discord for any lineup updates.

DFS Soccer: Fwd/Mid

CorePivotsValue
Bukayo Saka (ARS) – $10.2KMohammed Salah (LIV) – $10.5KAdam Lallana (BHA) – $4.1K
James Maddison (TOT) – $9.3KLeandro Trossard (ARS) – $7.7KPapa Sarr (TOT) – $5K
Enxo Fernandez (CHE) – $6.1KJames Ward-Prowse (WHU) – $7.3KBilly Gilmour (BHA) – $4.4K
Simon Adingra (BHA) – $5.1KDominik Szoboszlai (LIV) – $6.7K
Dejan Kulusevski (TOT) – $5.5K
Danny Welbeck (BHA) – $6.4K

DFS Soccer: Def

CorePivotsValue
Lucas Digne (AVL) – $5KPervis Estupinan (BHA) – $6KJoe Gomez (LIV) – $3.7K
Andrew Robertson (LIV) – $7.2KMalo Gusto (CHE) – $5.3KJoel Veltman (BHA) – $3.3K

DFS Soccer: Goalkeeper

CorePivotValue
Guglielmo Vicario (TOT) – $4.1KDavid Raya (ARS) – $5.3KNeto (Bou) – $3.8K
Emiliano Martinez (AVL) – $4.3K

Drago’s Weekend Best Bets:

(Not all bets are for the above DFS slate)

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! We will be there answering questions all day and all night!

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