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September 23, 2023

Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 3

StixPicks 2 years ago

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but again, we had a lot of success sneaking in the pay line in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 3.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, it will be very interesting to see where the field goes to open up value for the Chalk-City Shootout in Minnesota (54.5 point total… no other game is higher than 48.5).

Justin Herbert ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD) – Herbert seems to be a staple in this article week after week. This is by far the highest total on the slate and a game that should not disappoint from a fantasy perspective. With how much pressure the Vikings have been bringing this year and grading top-12 in Pass Defense DVOA, I’d say Herbert and his high ownership is probably best left for cash games (he struggles a bit against the blitz).

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley,
Bring-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Addison
Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD) – This is a full steam ahead play for Kirk Cousins against the Chargers’ dead last pass defense (DVOA). Pair that with the incredible passing rate over expectation for the Vikings and you’re bound to have fantastic fantasy production. The Vikings simply cannot run the football effectively and will continue to drop back and sling it. Cousins has a fantastic matchup at home here and will be a popular GPP and cash play for the DFS community.

Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley
Trevor Lawrence ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Despite being almost a double-digit home favorite here against the Texans, Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the safest quarterbacks for me on this slate. The Texans will be without their top cover-cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr. and should abuse this defense as a whole for four quarters. The AETY Model has him as one of the top values at the quarterback position with a sexy cash-game floor of 255 passing yards and two touchdowns. Fire up Lawrence in all formats and expect a monster comeback performance after a let-down last week against a tough Chiefs’ defense.

Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk
Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods
DeShaun Watson ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a high total or an up-paced game environment at all, but Watson has the Tennessee Titans and that is always something we’re interested in attacking with a passing game. Watson is probably better off as a cash game play and offers a great floor with his running ability.
Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DK GPP Only) – Alright, the NFL DFS Puke Play of the Week! If you are looking for a way to afford some of these stud wide receivers in the higher total games, you’re going to need some salary relief. According the the AETY Model, the number one value at the quarterback position is Desmond Ridder. Keep in mind there is significant risk when rostering Ridder. You’re rostering the quarterback who is on the team that is second to last in the NFL in pass attempts per game… Arthur Smith wants to run the football at all costs.

On the bright-side, David Montgomery is likely missing this game with an injury and this Lions’ offense is going to need to beat Atlanta through the air. Atlanta is a pass funnel defense and I’m sure Ben Johnson is aware of that. These pass catchers for Detroit are healthy and should look to step on the gas from the get go and make Arthur Smith get out of his comfort zone to throw the football. On the other side of things, Arthur Smith should want to throw the football more against a depleted Lions’ secondary that already ranks 5th to last on this slate in pass defense DVOA. What Ridder does with his legs is just pure bonus points for us, but there should be a good floor here against a defense that runs a lot of man coverage with heavy blitz rates.

Stack Options: Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Best running back on the slate and likely comes in extremely under-owned. I don’t want to prioritize running backs against the Lions’ but he’s arguably the best pass catcher on the team as well. There is nothing about Cordarrelle Patterson returning to the lineup that hinders my love for Bijan. Having said that, Tony Pollard ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) would be the preferred option in cash game lineups.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Fantastic game environment for Etienne and the Jaguars here against the absolute worst rush defense in the NFL (32nd in run defense DVOA). The only downside here is how much we’ll see of Tank Bigsby in the red-zone, but Etienne will be extremely active in the passing game with Zay Jones likely out.
Kenneth Walker II ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – More of a cash play for me in terms of the high projected ownership, but Kenneth Walker is in a great matchup against the Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). I’ll likely just jam him in my cash lineup to follow the ownership crowd, but will avoid in GPPs due to the offensive line issues that were clearly a problem for the Seahawks last week in Detroit.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap price for a guy I’ve been waiting on for the first couple of weeks. It is now officially, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). After seeing him get back into form a bit in Week One and damn-near be the only ball-carrier for the Broncos in Week Two, it is time for Sean Payton to unleash Javonte Williams against the Dolphins’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA) in. The AETY Model grades the Denver Broncos running game against the Miami Dolphins’ run defense as the #1 positive matchup to attack. It’s still quite early and falling in love with 2023 models may be premature, but in GPP’s I’ll take the chance on a ridiculously affordable, dual-threat running back, in a great game environment with some humidity that should bode well for his previously injured knee.
Josh Kelley ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley is a lock for me in all formats. I do not care about his ownership as this matchup is perfect for the Chargers’ running game. The Vikings’ run defense against the Chargers’ ground game is the #2 mismatch on the AETY Model (behind the one listed above).
Jerome Ford ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD) – If you need the “free-square” salary relief running back, Jerome Ford will surely be that guy this week. As we’ve mentioned the past two weeks, the running game matchup against the Titans’ is not a sexy one. Leave Ford to cash games only as he likely garners 35% or higher ownership in Week 3 NFL DFS.
Kendre Miller ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD) – It sounds like Kendre Miller is going to be a full-go this week against the Packers’ weak run defense. I don’t fully trust that Miller gets a ton of snaps, but we know Pete Carmichael does not want to use a lot of Tony Jones Jr. This is Kendre Miller’s time to shine before Alvin Kamara returns next week.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Isiah Pacheco

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play.

Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,700 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and will be locked in for all formats. The floor is simply too high. If you cannot afford him in cash games, use Kirk Cousins to get your exposure that way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – With everyone trying to pay up for Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to come into this week at 5-10% ownership. The upside here is fantastic as we mentioned the Lions likely lean on Jared Goff and this passing attack. The Falcons will play a ton of man coverage and that is where Jared Goff looks for Amon-Ra early and often (AETY Model projects a 36% target share against man coverage). Also, the matchup on the inside against Dee Alford is a fruitful one for Mr. St. Brown.
Keenan Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD) – Keenan Allen is legit taking over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week. This week, it’s a solid matchup in an extremely high total game… against a Vikings’ team that plays a ton of Cover-3 zone and has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Advantage Keenan.
Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel, but certainly in play on DraftKings as well. If Zay Jones is out, Calvin Ridley’s usage will likely skyrocket against a Texans’ defense that is out their top cover cornerback. I love this spot for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole. Christian Kirk is also in a smash spot here on the inside of this depleted secondary.
Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK) / ($6,200 FD) – Your classic WR1 against the Tennessee Titans’ pass-funnel defense and Kristian Fulton. At the price, this should be a fine play in all formats though I would lean towards cash games with this slow paced game environment.

Elijah Moore ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) has a low-key fantastic matchup here as well against the Titans’ man-coverage.
Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – If this game turns into a shootout, Courtland Sutton should be in a great spot here on the outside against Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. It’s a bit tough to handicap this receiving core and the expected target shares, but the Dolphins will play a nice mix of man coverage and Cover-3 zone, which will keep both Sutton and Jeudy active in the pecking order.

Drake London ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) is also someone I like a great deal in that price-range… especially if you’re going to have the stones to play Desmond Ridder.
Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD) – Assuming Jaylen Waddle is OUT, the DFS community will likely flock towards Braxton Berrios. The price is great and the matchup against Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis should give Berrios a lot of room to succeed in one of the best offenses in football. I prefer him as a cash game play but he’s fine for all NFL DFS formats if and only if Waddle is OUT.
Tank Dell ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Getting a cheap bring-back for the Texans in what should be a very negative gamescript makes a lot of sense here. Nico Collins is an absolute beast and I love to see it (one year after I play the hell out of him, lol), but for the savings, Tank Dell is very interesting. Tank Dell is the only wide receiver who is cheaper than $4K on DraftKings that is Top-25 on the slate in targets per routes ran and first read on quarterback drop-backs… Those are very telling metrics that Tank Dell is a focal point of this offense.
Justin Watson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you listened to the 1st and Stix Podcast for Week 3, first off… thank you! Second off, you were probably thrown way off-guard when I mentioned Justin Watson’s name. The stat was: of the top 35 players in air-yards, only three of them have not had a double-digit fantasy outing so far in 2023. Those three are Jonathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, and Justin Watson.

One of these things is not like the other… Mingo and Wilson are a part of horrid offenses. Justin Watson is a part of one of the best offenses in the NFL. If Kadarius Toney and Richie James are OUT, Justin Watson is my 1% owned GPP flyer of the week. He should absolutely break a deep ball or two against this practice-squad talent in the Bears’ secondary.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Jordan Addison, Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins (cash-viable at his ownership), Drake London, Elijah Moore, Robert Woods

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Ownership will be incredibly low for the best tight-end in football.

TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Rather cheap exposure to one of the best weapons in the highest total game on the slate. The Chargers will run a healthy mix of Cover-3 and blitz which will open things up in the middle of the field for TJ Hockenson.
Sam LaPorta ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – Excellent price for a key pass-catcher on the Lions’ offense that is expected to pass the ball a lot. When the Falcons show blitz and some Cover-3 zone, that is where LaPorta should shine in this matchup.
Kyle Pitts ($3,900 DK Only) – It’s gross, but I need a cheap stack option with Desmond Ridder if I want to fill the rest of my roster with studs. Kyle Pitts isn’t getting a ton of love in this offense but is still second amongst NFL Tight-Ends in route participation. The Lions will play a ton of Cover-2 and man coverage which should open up the world for Kyle Pitts to run wild (if they pass the ball). The best cover safety for the Lions, Kerby Joseph, will likely miss this game after being carted off the field last week. C’mon, 1% Pitts!
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DK Only) – With the potential weather concerns in Washington, just take the affordable Zach Ertz who’s getting targeted at an elite clip. This will be another negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals.
Cole Turner ($2,700 DK / $4,600 FD) – Total punt play with Logan Thomas out (concussion). The weather is likely to be a mess in this Buffalo @ Washington game but at the prices, Kincaid and Turner are viable.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Hayden Hurst

Defense / Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets (cash game lock at their ownership)
Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins
Josh Kelley
Keenan Allen
Zach Ertz
New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Desmond Ridder
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Javonte Williams
Kyle Pitts

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Week Three DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Cheat Sheet

Jason Mezrahi 2 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Each week, Win Daily’s own Jason Mezrahi breaks down his top plays of the NFL week. Please check back throughout the week as adjustments will be made due to news and injuries. Here are his plays for Week 3 of the 2023 season on DraftKings & FanDuel:

	FanDuel		DraftKings
Position
Elite QB	Patrick Mahomes	Josh Allen	Patrick Mahomes	Josh Allen
Mid-Range QB	Tua Tagovailoa	Trevor Lawrence	Tua Tagovailoa	Trevor Lawrence
Punt QB	Russell Wilson	Geno Smith	Russell Wilson	Geno Smith
Elite RB	Tony Pollard	Travis Etienne Jr.	Tony Pollard	Travis Etienne Jr.
Mid-Range RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	Alexander Mattison	Jahmyr Gibbs	Kenneth Walker III
Punt RB	Javonte Williams	Joshua Kelley	Javonte Williams	Alexander Mattison
Elite WR	Tyreek Hill	Justin Jefferson	Tyreek Hill	Justin Jefferson
Mid-Range WR	Mike Williams	Calvin Ridley	Keenan Allen	Calvin Ridley
Punt WR	Adam Thielen	Braxton Berrios	Tank Dell	Braxton Berrios
Elite TE	Travis Kelce	TJ Hockenson	Travis Kelce	TJ Hockenson
Mid-Range TE	Evan Engram	Hayden Hurst	Evan Engram	Mark Andrews
Punt TE	Jake Ferguson	Durham Smythe	Jake Ferguson	Durham Smythe
Elite DST	Cowboys	Patriots	Cowboys	Patriots
Mid-Range DST	Browns	Lions	Lions	Browns
Punt DST	Titans	Jets	Bills	Jets

Honorable Mention

Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Bijan Robinson, Miles Sanders, Kendre Miller, Jerome Ford, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Robert Woods, Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, River Cracraft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz, Cole Kmet, Hayden Hurst.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 28)

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

The evening slate features five games starting at 6:40 ET. Let’s find some values and upside so we can cash in before NFL this weekend!

MLB DFS Aces

Logan Gilbert vs Texas Rangers

Gilbert has the unenviable task of facing a tough Rangers lineup in the heat of a playoff race. That said, he has been fantastic this season, and our options on this short slate are limited. His last time out against this team went very, very well. He struck out 10 over 6.2 innings of work while allowing just 2 ER. That start was all the way back in May, but the upside is there.

Gilbert has asserted himself as a solid pitcher who doesn’t allow many baserunners. He has just a 1.08 WHIP on the season, and 182 punchouts in 179 innings of work.

The Mariners look ready to roll into the postseason, and Gilbert is a solid play tonight,

Connor Phillips vs Pittsburgh Pirates

The Reds are limping toward a potential playoff spot, but Phillips is cheap and has some upside in this spot. His last start was fantastic, striking out 7 over 7 innings of work while allowing just 2 ER against the Twins. The Pirates offense has been hot, but is mostly devoid of top-tier talent.

There aren’t a lot of cheaper options that I feel decent about on this slate, but Phillips fits the bill against a Pirates lineup that is ultimately a below average one.

Clayton Kershaw vs San Fransisco Giants

The Giants have seen their playoff hopes diminish to a dying heartbeat. They need a win in the worst way. Perennial Giants killer and future HOF pitcher Clayton Kershaw doesn’t give much confidence to their chances here. Kershaw has only pitched no more than 5 innings since his return, but there is plenty of time for him to return value here.

The Dodgers will likely keep his pitch count in check here, but this is a Giants team that strikes out at a high rate, and the Dodgers would love nothing more than to bury their nemesis on their way to the playoffs.

Kershaw isn’t a must play by any means, but our options are limited, so he is in play here.

MLB DFS Stacks

San Diego Padres vs Jake Woodford

The Padres are getting hot, but it is too little, too late. That doesn’t matter for MLB DFS, and we are rolling with the Padres to smash a bad pitcher here. Woodford owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in a 42.1 inning sample this season.

Sign me up.

Give me Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Ha-Seong Kim here.

This team is going down swinging (finally), and I’m all aboard the Padres train, even though I don’t believe the leash for Woodford will be very long. The Cardinals’ bullpen hasn’t exactly been great either.

Houston Astros vs Jordan Lyles

This one is obvious. The Astros are a top-tier offense facing one of the worst starters in MLB. Lyles has shown some signs of life, but overall his numbers are still pretty terrible. He sports a 6.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 38 HR allowed on the season.

Bombs away.

You all know I love Yordan Alvarez, but Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, the old man Jose Altuve, and even Jose Abreu are in play here.

Lyles loves to give up the longball at a historic pace, and the Astros will take advantage.

Cincinnati Reds vs Bailey Falter

Call me a homer if you want, but the Reds are in a good spot here. Falter is a contact pitcher who has just 59 strikeouts in 78.2 innings of work this season with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Reds are desperate for a win at this point, and their young lineup has plenty of upside here.

Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Joey Votto, TJ Friedl are my favorite targets here. The whole offense is in play here, as the ceiling is the limit here. Falter is an average pitcher at best, and the Reds are going to make some noise tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Lots of bad pitching to take advantage of on Saturday night, let’s make some cash!

Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let’s chat!

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 3

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Throw in the towel! Not because of our RB recommendations here at the Running Back Report Card. After all, we hit on six of the top ten scoring RBs last week! But because of the numerous injuries that ball carriers incurred in Week 2. And also, for the curious playcalling by several OCs, including one up in New York.

Using data to pick the best spots for RBs in a given week is challenging enough. But then you add injuries and unpredictable game scripts, and it all becomes much tougher. Ultimately, it was heartbreaking to see Nick Chubb go down with a severe leg injury and for Saquon Barkley to hurt his ankle when the Giants were running out the clock for a game-winning field goal. So erase those bad thoughts. Throw in the towel for Week 2, and let’s start a new contest with the below building blocks for your DFS lineups.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $8000 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Tier 1 is lonely this week, as three of the five backs are out or questionable. So, that leaves us with only a few RBs to pay for. And Tony Pollard should be one of those on your radar.

Pollard is the top ball carrier in one of the best offenses in the NFL. And they face the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, this week. Already this season, Arizona has allowed 44.9 DK points to RBs, including:

Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches

This follows a similar trend to last season when the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs (21). They are 14th in rushing defense DVOA, but the eye test shows they are much worse as they’ve faced two fragile offensive lines in the Commanders and Giants.

I would not worry about blowout potential in this game. Whether the Cowboys score 30 points in three quarters or four, the points will be had against this porous defense in the desert. Pollard has 64% of the snaps this season and is coming off a game where he saw 32 touches. He’s tied for the league lead in touches (48) with Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys RB is a very safe play this week and one that could break the slate.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7800 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It only took one week for Bijan Robinson owners to come back in off the proverbial ledge they put themselves on after Week 1. Even though the 2023 NFL First Round pick put up 20.3 DK points in Week 1, Tyler Algeir had more touches and points. However, that changed in Week 2 as Bijan had 28% more snaps and seven more touches than his counterpart.

Overall, Bijan is showing his playmaking ability. The Falcons RB is averaging 6.2 ypc while also reeling in five catches per game. He’s already showing and proving, why Atlanta used a top-10 pick on the former Texas Longhorn RB. And he’s 7th in the league in touches with 39.

This week, he gets to face the Detroit Lions, who play at a fast pace. While Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rushing defense DVOA (13th), they played two teams in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense DVOA and rushing yards. But the Falcons are a different story as they rank 4th in rushing yards and have a prominent offensive line.

This will be a battle of the first two RBs drafted this year and I expect both to shine. For the Falcons to keep pace with an explosive Lions offense, they’ll need to get Bijan 20+ touches once again and provide a good return on a $7800 investment.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Etienne did not have a strong game in Week 2 as KC held the Jaguars to just nine points in Week 2. But it wasn’t from lack of availability, as he saw 72% of the snaps. He’s now sitting at a 76% snap rate for the season, which is 6th in the NFL to date.

While we’re confident in Etienne’s role as the primary running back in Jacksonville’s offense, this is more about the Houston defense. After finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2022, the Texans are starting 2023 with a repeat in mind. According to DVOA, Houston is ranked 32nd in rushing defense. The biggest eye-opener is the Texans have already allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts steamrolled through Houston’s frontline and saw their RB Zach Moss post 20.7 DK points.

Doug Pederson is always a wild card and often needs to be reminded to run the ball. But he shouldn’t need any reminders this week, seeing the Texans’ struggles on defense this season.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6600 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Strap on your seatbelts because we’re ready for takeoff. If Lions RB David Montgomery can’t suit up this week, Jahmy Gibbs will be featured in a high-octane offense. And that should make us all very excited.

The talent is there, but the biggest question is opportunity. Even after Montgomery went down last week, Craig Reynolds received more carries (3) on the final two drives than Gibbs (0). Gibbs caught seven passes last week, including three in the fourth quarter.

The other tricky part will be Atlanta’s defense, as they rank 11th in rushing defense DVOA. However, they have allowed 4.5 ypc, 9th most in the league. And they allowed six catches to RBs in Week 1. So, if deployed correctly, Gibbs could have good chances in this game.

Overall, Gibbs is strictly a GPP play for me, and I’ll only consider him on DK as his lack of TDs and rushing yards/attempts make him hard to play on FD.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

James Cook cashed our bet last week as he went over his rushing yards prop. But more importantly, he scored 22.6 DK points, which earned him top 5 value for RBs last week. Cook has been the lead back in Buffalo to date and has taken 60% of the snaps. The only concern is that he still needs to find the endzone, as Buffalo has used Damien Harris and Latavius Murray at the goal line. We all knew that was a possibility, but at least Cook is also active in the passing game, thus making up for lost points there.

His opponent this week, the Washington Commanders, rank in the top 10 in total defense DVOA. But they are 17th in rush defense DVOA, 17th in rushing yards allowed, and t24th in yards per carry. So, while the matchup looks tricky, there are yards to be had against this tough Commanders front. Keep an eye on Cook’s health but if he’s a go, I expect a full workload and one of the safer plays in Cash.

KENNETH WALKER III $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

While he only managed 2.5 ypc, Kenneth Walker lived up to his ownership last week by scoring 18.4 DK points against the Lions. Unlike James Cook above, Walker does see the goal line carries and was able to punch two in the endzone last week. That adds to his value, especially against the Panthers this week.

For all the talk of Zach Charbonnet taking carries away from Walker to ease back in from a preseason injury, Seattle’s starting RB has received 62% of the snaps and 72% of the touches.

This week he gets a juicy matchup against Carolina who allows the 3rd most points to RB’s. They’re also ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA. I expect Pete Carroll to take advantage of this matchup and lean heavily on his running game this week making Walker a very good play in DFS.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

The Vikings traded for RB Cam Akers this week in what some see as a move signaling concern with Mattison. The team came out today and inferred the trade was for depth, and they still have confidence in Mattison. And as I type this today, I believe that statement. If Mattison continues at a sub-4.0 ypc and has additional critical fumbles, their stance will swiftly change with a capable RB in town.

However, down the road doesn’t matter, and only this Sunday does; for that reason, I’m confident in Mattison’s potential against the LA Chargers. First, the Vikings have played the top two rushing defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed. That could partly be a reflection of Minnesota, but the Eagles and Bucs shut down quality running teams outside of the Vikings.

The other factor is the Chargers D is ranked 32nd in DVOA. Additionally, the Vikings have thrown the ball frequently and have 0 wins to show. I expect HC Kevin O’Connell to try to establish a run game and wear down the Chargers team, who is traveling for a 2nd consecutive week.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

It has yet to be pretty in Denver so far this season. Karma may be settling in on Sean Payton after his critical comments of each Broncos HC, Nathaniel Hackett. But whatever you want to call it, the Broncos starting 0-2 against non-playoff teams is highly disappointing. One of the few bright spots is the play of Javonte Williams. While he’s played under 50% of the snaps, he has 64% of the touches for Broncos RBs. And that should expand going forward as he provides the highest upside in the backfield.

The Broncos travel to Miami this week and must be ready for a track meet. The Dolphins have allowed 321 yards and a 4.9 ypc which is 5th most in the league in 2023. They are ranked 29th in rushing defense by DVOA. More importantly, the Dolphins have allowed 3.5 catches per game to RBs. We can confidently pencil in Williams for 15+ touches against a defense allowing big plays, which looks like a recipe for low floor and high ceiling this week in Florida.

KENDRE MILLER DraftKings $4300 FanDuel $4700

Miller has been cleared to play and has been a full participant in practice this week leading up to the Saints game in Green Bay. Miller was a 3rd round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, coming out of National Champion runner-up TCU. So there is obvious talent here, and the Saints have a prime opportunity to display that.

For one, Jamaal Williams is likely out with a hamstring injury. And two, he’s facing the Green Bay Packers, who just allowed 211 yards rushing to the Atlanta Falcons. It’s rare we have an RB priced this low with a potential for 20+ DK points. It’s a risk, but one I’m willing to take, especially against a GB team that has struggled against the run for 2+ seasons.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL Week 3: The Jigsaw Pieces

Tony Cutillo 2 years ago

written by Tony Cutillo

Are you looking for an article that can be used for Season Long, DFS, and Props? If so, the search is over. I introduce you to the Jigsaw Pieces, an article that is packed with insightful information, very opinionated takes, and multiple ways to make a profit. No matter what kind of contest you’re playing, there’s a piece of the puzzle for you!

Games to Watch

LAC vs. MIN — O/U 54 PTs and could be a Fantasy Dream

K. Cousins & Addison — Captain Kirk has 88 attempts in 2 games and is averaging 351 YPG. With a very suspect Chargers secondary, this number will only go up. We all know JJ and Hock are studs, but don’t forget about Addison. The rookie has been extremely consistent in his 1st 2 games with his go routes, red zone looks and 2TDs. Many will say his big play ability makes him a liability in fantasy as a TD dependent WR with only 7 catches, but I disagree. JJ and Hock will always be the target monsters, leaving Addison open in the zone for big plays. Even if he doesn’t score, his DJax ability makes him PPR noteworthy each week.

M. Williams — This is the Mike Williams week. Over the last 2 years, when Williams has eclipsed double-digit targets (8 games) in a game he has averaged 8 receptions and 115 yards, while scoring 6 TDs. Hint: This will be a double digit target week and now you know what to do.

Props to Watch

K. Cousins – OVR 25.5 Pass Completions +100

J. Addison – OVR 50.5 Rec Yards -120

M. Williams – 75+ ALT REC Yards +110

ATL vs. Detroit — Sneaky Game of the Week

B. Robinson — With all the injuries, easily the best fantasy RB not named CMC. One thing to keep your eye on is him locked in as the #1 pass catcher on the team. He has given us a 21 PPG average and he still hasn’t been given full control. This could easily be his Shaun Alexander type breakout game.

J. Gibbs & S. LaPorta — With the injury to Monty and the fact that Gibbs already has 11 targets in 2 games, just tells us all we need to know when he doubles his touches. LaPorta has been incredibly consistent with a 10+ YPC average, showing his ability to make big plays underneath coverage. Against a team who will blitz a ton this week, he will find plenty of room to operate.

Props to Watch

B. Robinson – OVR 97.5 Rush + Rec Yds -115

J. Gibbs – OVR 23.5 Rec Yds -115

S. LaPorta – 50+ ALT Rec Yds +155

Confident Studs (Pieces that will fit your frame)

C. Ridley — A great spot against a Défense that’s without their Top Cover CB. He only had 2 catches last week, but has 19 targets in 2 games. The overall #1 option in the Jacksonville offense in a smash spot this week.

Zay Flowers – 15 Targets in 2 weeks, has the confidence of his QB, and OBJ is out. Sneaky bump is with the weather being rainy and windy, a few jet sweeps and short screens could be in the cards here too.

B. Robinson Jr. – He is 4th in total carries behind CMC, Henry, and Pollard, showing major consistency and confidence. Don’t be scared here. History suggests, even in losses, BRob still gets carries and mass volume.

K. Walker — Walker is an easy play and is facing a 31st ranked Defense who gave up 2 TDs to a guy named Tony Jones Jr. last week. Start away!

Skeptical Stars (Pieces you force into slots that may not fit)

D. Carr – He couldn’t muster a TD against a suspect defense at best in Carolina and is sporting an ugly 7 YPP. I don’t care who he is facing, I’ll pass until I see better. Draftkings $5500 — Value sits with CJ Stroud $5400 + D. Ridder $5000

D. Pierce – One word, UGLY. DP hasn’t cracked a run of longer than 10 yards, averages 2.7 YPC and is sitting behind an O’Line that is minus 4+ starters. Look in another direction fast! Draftkings $5200 — Value sits with T. Allgeier $5100 + J. Ford $4800

Diamond in the Rough (Pieces that could make the Mona Lisa of all puzzles)

Tank Dell – He has a 71% Target to Catch Ratio making the most of his 14 targets so far this season. He was a preseason darling and the Texans have confidence in him as a focal point of the offense behind Nico. Draftkings $3600 — Prop to Hit — Anytime TD +370

Desmond Ridder — Pure Punt Play here. Only 34 attempts in 2 games and the 6.8 YPP Average doesn’t scream start me. However, long plays of 34 & 45, along with 39 yds rushing last week and a TD, shows they are building something intriguing around him. This could easily be a 25+ point week and a winning piece to your lineup. Draftkings $5000 — Prop to Hit — OVR 211.5 Pass + Rush Yards -115

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Three

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We hit another trio of winners last week, posting a 3-1 record ATS for the second consecutive weekend. And we hit our outright winner in Survivor/Eliminator to keep moving forward. I don’t know about you, but my pools have already seen ~50% of entries eliminated. Though just two weeks, getting this far has been good navigating for us.

As a quick recap for Week 2, we continued to see dogs cover spreads as the favorites went just 7-9 ATS and are now 13-19 on the season. More importantly, the public went 9-7; however Vegas hit on their most important sides, getting covers in Arizona and the LA Rams. In case you missed it, the books are big fans of Rams HC Sean McVay.

Things have shifted slightly this week as we have only four home underdogs, where we had fourteen over the first two weeks. And home dogs are 7-7 ATS in those matchups to date.

So, let’s get moving and find some winners.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 3

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Many bettors will run to the window on Sunday to place action on Seattle. The Seahawks went into Detroit in Week 2 and won a game in OT to improve to 1-1. The public betting loved seeing that happen as they scored 37 points in that game. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers were on MNF and looked utterly flat in their loss to New Orleans. So it’s a case of recency bias that will indeed have the books flooded with seabird bets.

Can the Panthers bite harder with Andy Dalton now at QB?

However, QB Bryce Young has been ruled out for this contest, and in comes Andy Dalton. That should play in the favor of the Panthers, as their biggest issue so far has been the QB play. The Panthers rank dead last in passing yards with just 299 over the first two games. And they are 28th in completion percentage at 59.2%. Dalton played well last season, having a 92.5 QBR with a 2-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio.

The Seahawks have a solid passing attack, but that plays into a Panthers team with the 5th best-passing defense, according to DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers, with their new QB, should be able to move the ball against Seattle as they own the 22nd-ranked defense, according to DVOA. A weak defense, combined with Carolina’s ability to play solid pass D, should allow the Panthers to hang close enough to cover this number, and even pull out a win.

CLEVELAND BROWNS -3.5 vs TENNESSEE TITANS

The Browns have found a place in this article for the 3rd consecutive week. And that could be good or bad news, depending on what team you cheer for. To date, I’m 2-0 in Browns games, and feel like there’s an edge in this week’s contest too. The Browns saw DeShaun Watson fumble away the game last Monday Night in Pittsburgh. But the public also saw Nick Chubb go down to a scary injury, and now they have completely turned their backs on the city by the lake.

However, this wasn’t going to be a Nick Chubb game anyway. The Titans are the #2 ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. And they led the league in rushing defense last year. This was always going to be about DeShaun Watson and the Browns WRs. And with Watson struggling on MNF in Week 2, he will have added motivation to show he is worth the money that Cleveland invested in him.

Additionally, Cleveland has the #2 ranked defense, according to DVOA. The Titans have significant issues on the offensive line, as PFF ranks that unit as 28th in the league heading into Week 3. While only having four sacks this season, the Browns have the 3rd ranked pass-rushing unit as rated by PFF. The advantage in the trenches and the passing game is significant. The Titans, while 2-0 ATS, could easily be 0-2. Another Chargers late-game collapse masked their struggles, and they will be unable to hide this week against Myles Garrett and company.

DENVER BRONCOS +6.5 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS

I’m definitely on an island here, and I’m OK with it. The Broncos are 0-2 and 0-2 ATS, while the Dolphins are the exact reverse. To add to the opposite effects of these two teams, Denver has played two home games, and Miami has played two road games. It’s an exciting matchup seeing two teams with opposite results and paths taking the field today in Miami.

Broncos are looking for their first win this weekend in Miami. But they’ll need their defense to rise up to pull off the upset.

But here’s the thing: the public is hammering the Dolphins and it is for good reason. Miami passes the eye test, and casual bettors love good offenses. So far, we’ve seen almost 80% of bets and 75% of the money pouring in on Miami. And yet, the oddsmakers haven’t pushed this to the key number of 7. Something seems very odd about this one, and when it smells, trust Vegas.

As for the game, the offense in Denver hasn’t been the issue like in 2022. But now the defense can’t stop anyone. They made a splash in FA with DE Frank Clark and DL Zach Allen. But the Broncos have just four sacks this season, which ties them for 23rd in the NFL. This week, that will have to change if they want to get in the win column.

On offense, Denver has an advantage against the Dolphins D as their pass and run block rates are in the league’s top half. In the end, Denver is desperate and will play inspired football. They will play their best game of the season this week in Florida. Also, Miami was 1-2 ATS in 2022 at home following a road trip of 2+ games or more. And in two of those game, they lost outright (Minnesota and Green Bay).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 at TAMPA BAY BUCS (MNF)

The Eagles have been on National TV in the first two weeks of the season. And public bettors do not believe what they see despite their 2-0 and 1-0-1 record ATS, which is precisely where the Eagles want to be. They have yet to play a complete game and have 10 days of rest to figure it out.

As for the Bucs, they are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL to date. They’ve won a challenging game in Minnesota, then took care of the hapless Bears at home. Both defenses rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. But this week, they take a step up in competition and face an Eagles team that led the league in sacks last season with 70. And while Tampa has allowed just one sack this season, they’ve faced two teams that don’t have the defensive line strength like the Eagles possess.

There are mismatches at both lines of scrimmage, and the Eagles have the better-skilled position players. They’re comfortable in the spotlight and have the added rest days, all hidden advantages that will factor into this game.

SURVIVOR PICK

DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFL after the first two weeks of the season. And their reward in Week 3 is to play the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. There’s only a little to assess here as Dallas should keep it rolling this week in the desert. What I saw from Arizona last week was a team that is content to play tight but even more happy to lose and stay in the lead for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Dallas will help them keep that lead this week.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

UFC Premium

Al’s Deep Dive for UFC Vegas 79

Allan Fabrykant 2 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

FIZIEV V GAMROT

After a spectacular showcase of the UFC’s Mexican talent (including a very controversial majority draw call, watch Dana’s reaction here). We are back with an action-packed Fight Night card. Today’s fights will kick off in Las Vegas at 4:00 PM ET!! Many hot prospects and rising stars will be taking part in today’s action and I can’t wait to break down the big fights! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight, there will be 11 fights ending with a Lightweight fight between two surging talents looking to break into the top 5 of the division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 79 Fiziev vs Gamrot.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Charles Jourdain vs Ricardo Ramos

This is one of my favorite matchups in the entire card. Canadian, Charles Jourdain is facing off against Brazilian Ricardo Ramos. Two fighters with very different paths that have ultimately led to the same place. Both have seen some UFC success and are beginning to enter their prime. Charles is coming off an easy win against Kron Gracie while Ramos is coming off one of the craziest knockouts of 2022 (watch here). A big point to note is that Ramos could have fought in March of 2023 but came in eight lbs over the weight limit and the fight got canceled. Now, Ramos’ 15-month absence from the octagon could play a role in this one. When it comes to skill both these fighters have some clear edges over their opponent. for Ramos, it’s his ability to surprise. With two spinning elbow finishes, Jourdain will constantly have to be on high alert for any wild attacks. Ramos however will have more of a challenge competing against Jourdain’s strong suit, his gas tank, and his adrenaline. Sometimes it honestly seems like Jourdain gets more energy as the fight goes on and his ability to turn on the pace late in a fight when his opponent is losing steam has been an incredible asset for him leading to some dramatic decision wins and a few late finishes (watch some of the highlights here). Jourdain’s path to victory is clear, keep the fight on the feet, keep a consistent high intensity, and avoid the takedowns, if he can do that, he will have a massive edge in this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Jourdain UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND KO).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson

This fight is very lopsided in my opinion. Waterson has lost five of her last six fights with her only win coming via a controversial split decision back in 2020. Rodriguez on the other hand has picked up a couple of losses against top talents but has otherwise been running through the competition in the Strawweight division (including a five-round demolition against Waterson, which was actually the card’s headliner back in 2021). This fight is going to be much of the same as their first bout, largely taking place on the feet and if Waterson is lucky, she may secure a takedown. For the most part, Waterson will be a step behind for the entire fight, leading to a clear decision win for Rodriguez. I can see Rodriguez’s strike count getting very high which makes her a key option for your DFS lines.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Marina Rodriguez UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND KO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Andre Fialho vs. Tim Means

This matchup is very interesting as both fighters are coming into this fight on three-fight losing streaks. Fialho has suffered three straight KOs while Means has mostly lost via Submission lately. Statistically, both these fighters are very similar but the key difference in this one is their age, Tim Means is 39 years old!! A whole, 10 years older than his opponent. Honestly, I think Tim’s age has caught up with him and he is simply not the fighter he used to be. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an early finish and a retirement from Tim Means, after four straight losses at nearly 40 years old, it’s time to hang up the gloves. Means has looked a lot slower than he used to lately and although he still has some fight in him, the wars he’s been through have definitely taken their toll.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Andre Fialho FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Rafael Fiziev (as the odds suggest, this fight is very close, I can see either fighter taking it and I definitely recommend landing on one of them for your DFS lines. Fiziev is my top choice, but if you’re running more than one line, I would recommend having exposure to both main-event fighters)

Bryce Mitchell (I think that Bryce is going to win with his superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but realistically this is a much closer fight than -200. I think both fighters have some clear paths to victory. If you’re looking for underdogs with value Dan Ige is definitely worth a look)

Bryan Battle

Dan Argueta

Jacob Malkoun

Mohammed Usman

Mizuki Inoue

Tamires Vidal (FADE) [This one is closer than the odds suggest, I would rather just stay away from it altogether]

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Mohammed Usman (Double Chance KO/Decision) +115

Bryan Battle -188

Marina Rodriguez (Double Chance KO/Decision) -250

2 years ago 0 comments

Formula One

Formula One Race Week: Japanese GP

Theodore Cousins 2 years ago

written by Theodore Cousins

Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

Max Verstappen’s ($15,600) return to P1 for Sunday’s race was expected, but not to the tune of almost 1.5 seconds. Expect to hear the National Anthem of the Netherlands as it’s Max’s race to lose. Sergio Perez ($10,200) starts in P5 but looked well off in practice, take advantage of that through Red Bull Racing ($14,600) as they are the top option for the constructor position.

McLaren

The McLarens line up right behind Max with Oscar Piastri ($7600) starting in P2 and Lando Norris ($9400) attacking from P3. The McLarens ($7900) perform very well on the hard compound tyre which is the preferred racing tyre at the Suzuka race track. If you had to pick one Lando is the expected favorite to maximize points in your draftkings lines, but as always this is racing and volatility is inherent. Have exposure in GPPS

Mercedes

After George Russell ($8800) threw it all away on the final lap and torpedoed 80% of the field last week it might be tough to go back to him this weekend. I ain’t doin it. George can get desperate for wins sometimes and he does things that make you regret rostering him. I like the Mercedes($9500) race chances this weekend however and will want to get some in my constructor position. I’m a Lewis Stan so I will always play him in GPPS. Mix and Match the aforementioned drivers in your GPPS.

Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso ($6800) had pace in all three practice sessions over the weekend. His Aston should finish in the top 10 and a heavy chance of beating Lance Stroll ($6000).

Ferrari

Carlos Sainz ($8400) vs Chares Leclerc ($8200) has been fun this year at times, but some of the heaviest blows come by Sainz and last week’s performance at SIngapore was one for the books. He’s in good form and a good option, and I hope he’s popular as Ill try to go somewhere else with my salary as it feels like splitting hairs between the Ferrai ($8800) drivers this Japanese Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc is the preferred driver of the two making him a solid cash game play. We should expect top 10 finishes from the Ferrari but with limited DFS upside.

Alfa Romeo

If the Alfa is inconsistent it should be assumed their drivers will be too. It did not work out well last race, but I like Bottas ($4400) over Zhou ($3200) the past 4 races, and that will continue here. Have a lil Zhou though, probably in the Captain spot if the race falls his way.

Alpine

The Alpine qualified true to form in the front of the midfield. Definitely dont play both in the smae line up, and limited upside overall. They will be low owned though so Pierre Gasly ($5600) or Esteban Ocon ($5200) might be worthy of a large field GPP lineup. Dont go crazy

Williams

Albon ($4800) lurks right outside the top 10, and has proven that it doesnt take much for him to hit the top 10. Ill fit him in where I can as he has been priced correctly thgouhout the season. Albon casts a large shadow over the Williams garage and in the coldest part of the shade you will find Logan Sargent ($3000). Logan Sargent will be the featured player as hes the stone cold minimum and you can do whatever you want with him in your lineups.

Alpha Tauri

Yuki Tsunoda ($4200) gave his Japanese countrymen a good reason to cheer as he put himself into Q3. A sprinkle cant hurt, but I would not be heavy on the play at all. That being said Liam Lawson ($4000) continues to impress and makes Max/Red Bull Racing lineups a little easier to put together. Liam will be popular.

Haas

If you find yourself in this price range in GPPs the best thing to do is to have a sprinkle of both Kevin magnussen ($3600) and Niko Hulkenberg ($3600), very limited, not in the same line up, as all youre trying to do is catch the 5 beat teammate and 1 finish point.

Advice:

When building lineups Logan Sargent captain allows for viable Max/Red Bull Racing lineups. If going this way in GPPS, make sure to rotate through the close priced teammates and embrace the violitailty.

I like taking my more long shot style plays in the captain spot, so I will play around with that. Those would include either of the Haas drivers, Zhou, and Lawson. Yuki is the highest I will go when building like that. Those should not feature Max Verstappen either, so true GPP lineups.

As always if you have any questions get at me in discord @tcuz86

2 years ago 0 comments

English Premiere League

EPL DFS Rankings (Sept. 24th)

Matt Vecchio 2 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Each gameweek we will go position by position and rank our favorite plays. You will see our core plays, pivots, and value plays at each position in the rankings. After the rankings, a brief synopsis will help you build your lineups. Lastly, you will find Drago’s Best Bets for the top bets of the weekend. If you are new to soccer DFS, you need to know that lineups don’t come out until around 1 hour before 10 a.m. (Eastern) lock. Ensure you are around pre-lock in our discord for any lineup updates.

DFS Soccer: Fwd/Mid

*Core*	*Pivots*	*Value*
Bukayo Saka (ARS) – $10.2K	Mohammed Salah (LIV) – $10.5K	Adam Lallana (BHA) – $4.1K
James Maddison (TOT) – $9.3K	Leandro Trossard (ARS) – $7.7K	Papa Sarr (TOT) – $5K
Enxo Fernandez (CHE) – $6.1K	James Ward-Prowse (WHU) – $7.3K	Billy Gilmour (BHA) – $4.4K
Simon Adingra (BHA) – $5.1K	Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) – $6.7K
	Dejan Kulusevski (TOT) – $5.5K
	Danny Welbeck (BHA) – $6.4K

DFS Soccer: Def

*Core*	*Pivots*	*Value*
Lucas Digne (AVL) – $5K	Pervis Estupinan (BHA) – $6K	Joe Gomez (LIV) – $3.7K
Andrew Robertson (LIV) – $7.2K	Malo Gusto (CHE) – $5.3K	Joel Veltman (BHA) – $3.3K

DFS Soccer: Goalkeeper

*Core*	*Pivot*	*Value*
Guglielmo Vicario (TOT) – $4.1K	David Raya (ARS) – $5.3K	Neto (Bou) – $3.8K
	Emiliano Martinez (AVL) – $4.3K

Drago’s Weekend Best Bets:

(Not all bets are for the above DFS slate)

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! We will be there answering questions all day and all night!

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Football Premium

NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 3

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Week Two was a roller coaster, some of us just made it across the pay lines and some saw takedowns in GPPs. One take of mine from Week two as I mentioned in the breakdown, Puca Nacua is matchup proof! If you kept riding the hot hand with him, for DFS, you cashed in more tickets. On to Week Three! The injury bug bit the NFL across the league last weekend, including superstar running back Nick Chubb. With a ton of value on this slate it can again get pretty chalky, so let’s think outside the box for GPPs. Cash games are a priority in my book, stay right here as I dissect the players to consider in each matchup.

I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into The Week Three Game by Game Breakdown…

Sunday Main Slate 9/24/23

Bills @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 45)

Bills Mafia was back in full effect last weekend, as we watched Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKinks/$8,800 FanDuel) spread the ball around the Vegas secondary in Buffalo. He was a cash game darling, and why not let it ride with him again? It’s tough to figure out which receiver to stack along with Allen week in and out, but running back James Cook ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) has stepped forward as the clear lead back in Buffalo. His opportunity share skyrocketed in Week Two averaging over seven yards per carry (17ATT/123YDS). Stefon Diggs‘ ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) high floor also keeps him in the cash game conversation, as usual.

I never expected such a high-scoring game in Denver with the Commanders, but it happened as they pulled out with a win last weekend. Washington rode the coattails of running back Brian Robinson Jr.($5,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), who dominated the goal line opportunities and scored two touchdowns. His salary on DK is still below $6K, take advantage of his price tag before it climbs again.

Update: Logan Thomas is OUT…Cole Turner ($2,700 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) as your GPP dart throw.

By all means, if you are looking for a cheap defense to pivot to, the Commanders at ($2,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) have scored ten and eleven fantasy points this year, and we know Josh Allen is no stranger to turning the ball over.

Honorable Mention: Dalton Kincaid ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)

@football80_fan
James Cook season highlights 2023 #NFL #Bills
♬ original sound – name

Texans @ Jaguars (-8.5) (O/U 44.5)

Houston’s top prospect quarterback C.J. Stroud ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has been given a long leash to start the season. The Ohio State product has slung it 91 times in just two games, completing 58 passes for 626 yards. The Jags currently are 29th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, but the coaching staff will have him on a throwing count due to a sore shoulder. Pairing him with Nico Collins ($5,300 DraftKings/6,900 FanDuel) would’ve made a lot of lineups for me, coming off a 7 REC/146 YDS/1 TD stat line. But it’s a little risky for cash, I’d only take my shot in tournaments with the Texan duo.

The Jags broke a lot of hearts last weekend in Kansas City, as we watched Trevor Lawrence put up a depressing 10.2 fantasy points. He may struggle again with the Texans who’ve had his number, holding him without a passing touchdown in 2022. Travis Etienne ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) may be more appealing this week against a Houston front seven that has been bludgeoned by opposing running backs again this season (24th in DVOA). Zay Jones will not be suiting up as well, so we may see a repeat performance of a Christian Kirk ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) target funnel.

Honorable Mention: Tank Dell ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel)

Broncos @ Dolphins (-6.5) (O/U 48)

Broncos head coach Sean Payton may have finally cleared the cobwebs from Russell Wilson ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), putting up 30 fantasy points in Week Two. We would have to make a strong case to use Russ against Miami in another potential high-scoring game. Consider getting different here at running back too, Javonte Williams ($5,500 DraftKings/$ 6,100 FanDuel) is quietly ramping up this season, especially in the passing game. With nine targets to start the year along with 25 rushing attempts, this could be a Javonte breakout in Miami who averages 161 yards per game to opposing running backs.

Miami has been lights out to start the season led by Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) and Tyreek Hill ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel). The duo has combined for 16 receptions, 255 yards, and three touchdowns, and could add tremendously to that total on Sunday if Jaylen Waddle cannot clear the concussion protocol by Sunday. Veteran running back Raheem Mostert $6,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has also been white-hot, rushing for 121 yards and two touchdowns against a stingy Patriot defense Sunday Night.

Honorable Mentions: Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel If Waddle is a no-go)

Update: Jaylen Waddle is OUT

@cecaltoona77
#dolphins #tyreekhill
♬ original sound – CECAltoona

Colts @ Ravens (-7.5) (O/U 44)

The Colts may be missing their dynamic rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson due to concussion protocols, opening the door for Gardner Minshew to possibly start in Baltimore. Running back Zack Moss looked awesome in his 2023 debut last weekend racking up over 20 fantasy points. But the Colts may be in over their heads on the road in Baltimore this weekend. The Ravens rank fourth in the league in stopping the run (69 YDS/game), and I can’t rely on Minshew to get the ball out in a potential hurricane with a backup center snapping him the ball. Pay up a spot for the Ravens DST ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) in a potential washout, and keep an eye on weather reports.

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has arrived for fantasy ladies and gentlemen, and he gets another great matchup at home against the Colts. He completed 77% of his passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati while adding 54 yards on the ground. Roll him out naked for cash or pair him with an affordable wide receiver of Zay Flowers ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) especially with OBJ already ruled out. The Ravens will face the second-worst passing defense in football, but we may get a lot of rain on Jackson’s parade. The clear pivot would be to running back Gus Edwards ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), who will command the backfield due to an injured Justice Hill.

Falcons @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 47)

The young and up-and-coming Falcons will bring their unblemished 2-0 record into the Motor City this Sunday, who finally may be turning to Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) through the air. The second-year signal caller threw for 237 yards and a touchdown on 32 attempts, adding a touchdown with his legs. Rookie phenom Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is quickly running away with the feature role at running back in Atlanta, as he out-snapped Tyler Allgeier 92-65. We’ve all seen our fair share as he’s accrued 180 yards already with ten receptions and a touchdown.

Jared Goff ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) at home and indoors (13,432 yards and 85 touchdowns in 51 home games) has been a blessing for DFS managers, and we get another opportunity on this slate. Although stud receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DraftKings/FanDuel) has a bruised toe, he can still be a factor along with tight end Sam La Porta ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) and receiver Josh Reynolds ($4,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel). Running back David Montgomerey’s status is looking murky this week, which will lead to more opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs and possibly Craig Reynolds, but the usage will be unclear. Keep the Lions’ running backs in GPPs only.

@phillyboy6
#nfl #nflfootball #nflweek2 #detroit #detroitlions #jaredgoff #touchdown #joshreynolds #sports #sportshighlights #nflhighlights #sportslover #sportstiktok #fyp
♬ original sound – phillyboy

Chargers @ Vikings (+1) (O/U 54)

As the Vikings and Chargers sit at 0-2 both teams enter this weekend desperate for a win. The 54-point total in a climate-controlled environment spells a fantasy all-you-can-eat buffet. Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) starts Week Three as QB 1 for the season, as he has easily moved the ball averaging 44 attempts per game with six touchdowns to teammates Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and the rookie Jordan Addison ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel).

News broke this afternoon that Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will miss his second straight contest, putting Josh Kelly ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) back into the chalkiest player for DFS in back-to-back weeks. The game script will also fit the usual Bolts partakers. Justin Herbert ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,400 Fanduel) will seek to air it out once again, leading the league in deep ball attempts (13) and second in red zone attempts (15). Keenan Allen ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) and Mike Williams ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) will get plenty of opportunities once again this weekend.

@nfl
herbie fully loaded 😤 #justinherbert #losangeleschargers #nfl
♬ original sound – NFL

Cowboys @ Cardinals (+12) (O/U 43.5)

The Cowboys have made mince meat of their inferior opponents to start 2-0, dominating both sides of the ball. Their schedule continues to be a cakewalk as they prance into the desert in Arizona. Tony Pollard ($8,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) and Cee Dee Lamb ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) have been the backbone of the offense for Dallas, as well as their suffocating defense led by Micah Parsons.

The Cardinals went down in history last week, blowing a 28-point halftime lead to the Giants. The road will get even bumpier in Week Three facing the NFL’s top-ranked defense. Tight end Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) continues to be quarterback Josh Dobbs’s man crush, leading the league in targets (18) and target share percentage (30.5%).

Bears @ Chiefs (-13) (O/U 48)

Chicago is another team yet to find the win column, and the 13-point spread says they will keep looking into Week Four. Quarterback Justin Fields has not been his 2022 self, rushing for only 62 yards and only a 65% completion rate. Until we see the Bears turn things around offensively, the only reasonable play would be rookie running back Roschon Johnson ($4,700 DraftKings/FanDuel), whereas out of Bears’ camp, his role will grow this weekend, making him a GPP separator.

It wasn’t pretty in Jacksonville last weekend, but the Chiefs pulled out an uncomfortable win on the road. Travis Kelce was not himself coming off a bruised knee but did manage to find the end zone. Expect Pat Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) to return home and get all his ducks in a row against a Bears defense that has allowed 377 total yards per game so far this year. Pay attention to Isaiah Pacheco’s ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) hamstring as most of the damage is done on the ground to Chicago. Jerrick McKinnon ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) could see an increase in workload if Pacheco is out.

Titans @ Browns (-3.5) (O/U 39.5)

As the Derrick Henry train slowly starts to derail while he averages 3.6 yards per carry so far in 2023, and could even see Tajae Spears step into the mix sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, DeAndre Hopkins has been averaging nine targets per game, But he’s questionable for Sunday. Even if he does give it a go, Hopkins only scored eight fantasy points last week. Tennessee facing this down-and-dirty Browns defense, I won’t lose sleep by fading the Titans this weekend.

Cleveland and Deshaun Watson were terrorized on Monday night by the Steelers and TJ Watt but should recover this weekend. Watson ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) will face a pressure-free, pass-funnel defense ranked 28th in passing yards allowed, which will also favor Amari Cooper ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), who is nicely priced on the slate. Sadly we saw running back Nick Chubb go down for the season also on Monday night, promoting Jerome Ford ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) to the top of the depth chart. Ford put up 27 DK PTS. in just three quarters of play against Pittsburgh.

Patriots @ Jets (+3) (O/U 36.5)

The total of this AFC matchup is nauseating at 36.5 but does offer an option for both the Jets and Patriots defenses. New York will hide the quarterback for every possession while the Pats will have an uphill battle to move the football against a young and hungry Jets defense. Patriot tight end Hunter Henry ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) does offer us some salary relief, scoring a touchdown in both games this season while facing a Jets team ranked 26th in fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Until New York can fix their problem again at quarterback with Zach Wilson, the Jets will be a cheat code for opposing defenses. Coach Belichick looks forward to humiliating Gang Green twice a year, so the Patriots DST ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is a lock this weekend. Weather will play also play a role on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium and the Jets DST ($2,800 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) will be heavily owned because of the discount for a defense.

Saints @ Packers (-2) (U/O 42.5)

Jordan Love ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) has been the only quarterback to throw three touchdowns with no interceptions in both games this season, the Packers knew what they were sitting on since 2020. Running back Aaron Jones seems to still be bothered by a hamstring, and I’m not willing to start AJ Dillon again for DFS if Jones is a no-show. The Saints’ defense has been frugal to opposing offenses, rolling Love out naked may be the only path if you like the Packers this week.

New Orleans running backs are dropping like flies as Jamaal Williams has already been ruled out this weekend. The journeyman Tony Jones Jr. stepped up for two touchdowns in the Carolina victory, but the rookie Kendre Miller ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) may be featured. His salary is extremely favorable in a matchup against a Packers team that has allowed 166 yards per game to opposing running backs.

@chavosports
Happy for Jordan Love…but damn man 😂 #packers #nfl #jordanlove
♬ original sound – Chavo

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6) (U/O 42)

Carolina will sit rookie Bryce Young out this week for an ankle injury and will start Andy Dalton in Week Three. This change of pace at quarterback will give the offense a shot of better decision-making with the football. Look for Miles Sanders ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) to see an increase in volume, facing Seattle’s bottom ten run defense. Pass-catchers Adam Thielen ($3,900 DraftKIngs/$5,700 FanDuel) DJ Chark ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel), and Hayden Hurst ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) will also see more accurate targets, but I would only look to Carolina’s receiving core for salary relief for GPP tournaments.

Geno Smith ($5,700nDraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) does it again, proving the haters wrong in 2023 that last year wasn’t a fluke. He threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, but his arm could take the afternoon off this weekend. Seahawks back Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) struggled in his last matchup but did find the endzone twice. This week may tell a different story, as he’ll attack a Panthers’ run defense that could not stop a runny nose (31st in DVOA).

Cash Core

Cousins/Jefferson/Kelley/Ertz

GPP Core

Wilson/Mostert/Lamb/Hockenson

Stacks

Cousins/Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson

Herbert/Allen/Williams/Kelly

Goff/ARSB/Reynolds/Bijan (runback)

Dak/Lamb/Pollard/Ertz (runback)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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