DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Ladies and gentlemen, we are back in Hawaii for the second week of the PGA Tour season for 2023 and the first full field event for the year! Bring back the cut sweat and deep-dives! This is your 2023 Sony Open Preview.
A great start to the year for us at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. We tipped the winner Jon Rahm live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. Rahm was standing in the fairway on the par 5 15th with just 157 yards in for his second shot. For Rahm, that is just a pitching wedge and was a great opportunity for a birdie if not an eagle. Morikawa meanwhile had found the bunker on 14. He had also seen his once 9 shot lead crumble into just 3 shots. We saw value at the $9.50 on offer. Rahm indeed made eagle, Morikawa made birdie, and we cash 5 units @ $9.50.
We also cash in a Top 5 on Max Homa with 1 unit @ $7.60. Tipped at 33/1 pre-tournament, Homa made a sluggish start. Two rounds of 3-under 70 saw him languishing in the bottom third of the field. However, a 10-under 63 followed by a 7-under 66 saw him jump into 3rd place.
This week, the tour hops over to Honolulu for the Sony Open. This historic event has attracted a reasonably strong field headlined by Sungjae I’m, Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and rising prodigy Tom Kim. Let’s get into it!
2023 Sony Open Course Analysis
Waialae Country Club plays host this week in a substantially different test to what golfers faced last week. Whereas Planatation presented wide open fairways with non-existent rough, Waialae presents a narrow and tricky course.
Multiple doglegs and narrow fairways and overhanging trees which must be avoided to open up access to the greens. It should come as no surprise that driving accuracy is at a premium. In fact, this course ranks within the top 5 where driving accuracy is a predictive factor.
It is also worth noting that the rough has been allowed to grow out to 3 inches from just 2.25 inches last year. That may not sound overly imposing but bear in mind we are dealing with Bermuda grass here. Bermuda rough can really grab onto the club face as well as produce flyer lies. In fact, 3 inches is the longest the tour allows Bermuda rough. Only two other tournaments last year had 3-inch Bermuda rough, the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. You want to put even more emphasis on driving accuracy this week compared to previous iterations of the tournament.
Alongside driving accuracy, SG: ATG is a far more predictive factor than at other courses. Precisely why this may be is somewhat a mystery. Most likely is that Hawaiian tradewinds are one of the main defences to this course. The other being that when puns are tucked away on these relatively large greens getting up and down becomes a premium.
Comparison Courses and 2023 Sony Open Course Form
We are somewhat fortunate this week. It can be really tricky to predict what golfers are playing well after the New Year break. Many have not played competitively since the RSM Classic some 55 days ago.
To our benefit, Waialae has the 2nd highest correlation between prior performance and future success. The only course more correlated is Augusta National. This is perhaps highlighted best by the fact that in 2013 Russell Henley was the first debutant to win this event since its inception in 1965. You want to heavily consider prior form at this course over any recent performances.
There are also heavy correlations between El Cameleon and Waialae Country Club. In 15 iterations of the Mayakoba Championship, 6 have also won the Sony Open. Henley was the most recent to affirm this link. He completed this double with his recent victory in November complimenting the aforementioned win here in 2013. Further, he was runner-up when just missing out to Matsuyama in a play-off here last year.
Other courses with correlation are the RBC Heritage and Sea Island Golf Club. Both are coastal course with wind exposure. They are also positional golf courses, where finding the short grass is further emphasised with wanting to find the correct side of the fairway. There are also tentative links with Colonial Country Club.
Weather for the 2023 Sony Open
A slight advantage looks to have developed for those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM this week.
High winds were experienced on course on Wednesday. Thursday morning now looks likely to suffer from those high winds. This is looking to settle from 1pm onwards, with Friday morning also looking calmer than Friday afternoon.
I have the current advantage at approximately 0.5 strokes on average. As such, this should not be the sole factor in your decision making. However, if you’re struggling to decide between two golfers, you should favour the golfer teeing it up Thursday afternoon.
2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Russell Henley
2.5pts E/W $26.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.30
Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60
Aaron Rai
1pt E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00
David Lipsky
1pt E/W $151.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $6.00
David Lingmerth
0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
2pts Top 40 $3.00
Zac Blair
0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60
Kazuki Higa
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
4pts Top 40 $3.40
Golfer Profiles
Russell Henley – Your 2023 Sony Open favourite
Given the above, it should be no surprise that Henley headlines our tips. Henley has extremely strong links to Waialae. Prior course form including a win and a somewhat disappointing runner-up finish in the 2022 playoff. The November 6th victory should fill him with confidence arriving at a course that he has previously played so well at.
I’m not a huge fan of trends, but for what it is worth 5 of the last 6 winners of this event have competed the week prior at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This is somewhat unsurprising, has by its own definition the Sentry comprises some of the best players on tour. More noteworthy for me was that Henley finished in the Top 5 for SG: APP last week and 3rd for Driving Accuracy. That ball-striking in a high-class field is too difficult to ignore.
You can read more of Henley’s love for Waialae in this recent interview here.
As always with Henley, the result will come down to his putter. Anything at field average or better should see him towards the top of the leaderboard for the 2023 Sony Open.
Andrew Putnam
Putnam enjoyed a solid finish to 2022. He followed up of 5th and 23rd in the first two Fed Ex Cup Playoff events with a 12th in Las Vegas and a 2nd in a high quality ZOZO Championship field (an event that last year’s Sony Open winner Matsuyama won in the 2022 season).
Putnam holds a 2nd here from 2019, so ticks the prior course form box. He arrives here a much-improved golfer to 3 years ago.
Denny McCarthy
Having opened at odds of 45/1, Denny has drifted to 60/1. Seemingly, this is only due to money flowing to players like Harman, Poston, and Kuchar near him in the market.
The highly regarded putter is also very accurate off the tee. A recent 6th place at the Bermuda Championship hints at correlated tropical and exposed course form. He holds a 15th at the Mayakoba last year, a 10th and 8th at the RSM Classic, and 13th at the RBC Heritage.
Denny’s approach game has been his weakest aspect since joining the PGA Tour in 2018. 2022 was his first year where his SG: APP was at PGA Tour average. His start to 2023 has seen him gain on approach across his first 7 events and suggests an improving golfer that may go well at the 2023 Sony Open.
Aaron Rai
The talented Englishman has yet to make much of a mark since hopping the ditch to join the PGA Tour. Rai began his debut DP World Tour season with two victories and nine Top 20 finishes. He followed this up with further wins in 2019 and 2020. You would have to think he would be nearing double digit wins had he remained on the easier DP World Tour. However, with a Top 10 finish on the PGA Tour often surpassing the winner’s prize in European events, you can understand the decision.
Rai’s game does continue to show signs of improvement. He has been above PGA Tour average for SG: APP for the last three seasons. Most importantly, he is now also gaining with the putter and in SG: ATG. He has gained in Driving Accuracy on the Tour average at a rate of double digits at most seasons he has played.
A 15th at Mayakoba in 2022 and a 16th at the RSM Classic are further links to here. A 2022 missed cut at his sole appearance here can be somewhat forgiven by the fact it is so hard to tell where a player’s game is at following the off-season. The credentials and profile are there, and at triple figure odds present value for a golfer who should be priced at 80/1 or shorter.
David Lipsky – Your 2023 Sony Open best value
Lipsky presents as one of the best values on the board in my models, currently available at 150/1 when his fair pricing should be in the realm of just 100/1.
A 2022 missed cut can again be somewhat forgiven considering it was his 6th missed cut in a row during a terrible stretch of form. He has been much improved of late with a 22nd at Houston Open and a Top 10 finish at the Mayakoba in November. A 6th at the Mexico Open and 7th at the Corales Puntacana further highlight positive tropical course form.
Lipsky gains on driving accuracy, approach, and ATG in an ideal recipe for this venue. His performance, much like Henley, will come down to his performance with the putter this week.
David Lingmerth
Lingmerth makes his first appearance here since 2017, at a course he finished 13th in 2016. He risked losing his tour card towards the end of last year, where a comprehensive victory in the Korn Ferry Tour playoff event could well stoke the fire.
A 5th at Colonial provides an indication heading into the Sony Open. Further, a fantastic 8th place at the Mayakoba in November and a 10th at the RSM Classic confirm an obvious choice to tee it up this week. The afternoon tee-time Thursday is a further positive for a golfer available at 200/1.
Zac Blair
Having opened at a extremely overpriced 300/1, Blair continues to present value as an outside chance at the 200/1 still on offer.
Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July last year, and immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.
Prior to the injury, Blair had a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. He also holds a 3rd and 6th placed finish around Waialae in 2015 and 2016. Now back to full health, he is worth a flyer at long odds for what would be an emotional comeback victory.
Kazuki Higa
Finally, we wind up our picks with the up-and-coming Japanese star Kazuki Higa. Higa won a notable four times on the Japan Golf Tour in 2022. He already proved last year he can jump across to the higher tours, when he played the BMW International Open and immediately finished 10th.
The most recent of those four victories was also the most impressive. The Dunlop Phoenix Tournament always attracts a talented international field. When winning the 2022 event, Higa defeated some big names. That included this week’s favourite Tom Kim, LIV Golf rumoured recruit Mito Pereira, World Ranked top 50 Scott Vincent, Aaron Wise, and Corey Conners.
Higa looks destined to advance to the PGA Tour or DP World Tour shortly. A high finish this week would go a long way to accelerating that progression and at 300/1 he is well worth consideration.
For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/
