Joe DiCarlo 
Welcome back! To cap it off for our Season Long Fantasy Football analysis, I’ve saved the best for last…running backs! Who do we target? Which backfields do we fade? Where is the value at their ADP? We’ve got your draft strategy covered here at WinDaily.
The running back market has plummeted this offseason. The traditional bell cow, as illustrated by guys like Jonathon Taylor and Josh Jacobs, may face extinction due to the evolution of the position. Coaches are developing dual backfields and deploying committee approaches to keep everyone fresh and at the same time ease up on salary caps. As fantasy managers, we adjust. The game is constantly changing and we need to be two steps ahead when it comes to drafting.
Free agency signings, injuries, and contract hold-outs…Oh boy! Let’s cut to the chase, as we’re waiting for the last shoe to drop off for the remaining free-agent running backs, we have enough data to start picking our spots at the position. I’m Joe DiCarlo (@DiCarlo78) and you can reach me in our expert chat on Discord. Also, don’t forget to use promo code “WINBIG” for a free week of access to all of our content including podcasts, articles, and projection models.
The Bell Cow Stable
(Target)
Christian McCaffrey (3.5) – He is the unquestioned RB #1 for fantasy this season. He’s the Niners’ Swiss Army knife that can light it up on the ground or through the air. CMC averaged just under 5 YPC with a total of 1,377 rushing yards to complement an incredible 97 catches and 16 total touchdowns.
Austin Ekeler (7.5) – New O.C. Kellen Moore has mentioned an even more pass-heavier offense in the off-season, which could affect his PPR value. But nobody has sniffed the end zone more than Ekeler last season, scoring 20 total touchdowns.
Nick Chubb (12.1) – An absolute stud-muffin. Chubb earned a 64.4% opportunity share in 2022 averaging 5.1 YPC for 1,525 yards on the ground. Alongside teammate Kareem Hunt, he split the backfield and managed to put up impressive numbers. However, his release this off-season sets the stage for even more volume for Chubb in the upcoming year.
Saquon Barkley (16.1) – With contract negotiations in his rearview mirror, Saquon is in line to take the reins of the Giants’ offense for one more year. He ranked second in the league in snaps (79.9%) and third in opportunity (80.1%), cementing his presence on the field for Big Blue in 2022. If Barkley remains healthy, he has the potential to touch the ball up to 300 times and make over 50 catches as he did last season.
Tony Pollard (18.1) – There’s a new sheriff in a Cowboy uniform named Tony Pollard. His efficiency forced the hand of the Dallas brass to run Zeke out of town, averaging 5.2 YPC in that timeshare, totaling 1,007 yards rushing. Pollard was also dominant in breakaway runs last season, utilizing his 4.2 speed for 17 breakaway runs, and taking 12 of them to the house (touchdowns).
Derrick Henry (21.0) – King Henry has shown no signs of regression thus far and is still the focal point of the Titans’ offense. The seven-year product out of Alabama is getting up there in age (29), but he led the league in carries (349) and ranked second in opportunity share (83%). It’s safe to say Tennessee will keep the ball in Henry’s hands, as they averaged 29 rushing plays per game last year.
Honorable Mentions: Jahmyr Gibbs (32.7); Rhamondre Stevenson (33.4)
(Fade)
Bijan Robinson (8.7) – The Falcons took him 8th overall in this year’s draft, but that doesn’t mean you should too. Tyler Allgeier will still see plenty of touches after breaking a thousand yards last season, and Cordarrelle Patterson still has plenty left in his tank to vulture carries. I’m only taking Robinson early for Dynasty but in a regular re-draft, the first round is too early for me. I’d consider the rookie out of Texas to be a mid to late second-rounder.
Jonathon Taylor (24.2) – I’m just not feeling the warm and fuzzies with Taylor, even as a late second-round pick. He continues to show up to camp and show up in street clothes, as he to continues to be an unhappy camper as a Colt. If he gets traded, I’m all in. If he slides to round three, you may be forced to take a shot on a guy who put up over 1,800 yards with 20 trips to the endzone back in 2021.
Josh Jacobs (32.2) – He’s currently not listed on the Raiders’ website depth chart, with Zamir White as their starter at running back. Until we hear some good news about Jacob‘s contract disputes, we look elsewhere.
Breece Hall (33.4) – The Jets’ backfield looks great on paper, but it’s not for fantasy running backs. Free agent Dalvin Cook signed with New York this week on a one-year, 8.6 million dollar deal, which will limit Breece’s volume early on this season. If he slides down your draft boards, Hall will add great depth to your bench at running back, but by no means he’s worth taking in the third round.
Worth The Wait at RB
(Target)
Najee Harris (40.6) – His yards per carry were scary at 3.8/3.9 for 2021 and 2022, but Najee still produced well over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns each year. The revamped offensive line in Pittsburgh will undoubtedly pave the way for Harris and increase his yards per touch, giving a ton of value at his current draft spot.
Aaron Jones (51.5) – The six-year veteran out of UTEP will be a crutch to lean on for the Packers’ elevated quarterback Jordan Love. Love’s inexperience as a starter may cause him to be slightly gun-shy to begin the season, thus Jones can pick up where he left off last year. While in a dual-backfield with A.J. Dillon, Jones ripped off a massive 5.3 YPC for 1,121 yards, as well as 59 catches in only a 54% opportunity share.
Alexander Mattison (59.3) – With the release of Dalvin Cook during the offseason, Mattison gets the keys to the backfield in Minnesota. Since 2020 when given the opportunity, Mattison averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game as the featured back. The volume will be cranked up for him in Minnesota, especially without any significant moves made in the offseason.
Dameon Pierce (66.4) – He was heavily involved in the offense for the Texans in his rookie year, ranking 6th in the league in opportunity share at 73.3%. Pierce nearly reached 1,000 yards with 939 and will see the same amount of volume running behind an improved Texan O-Line.
Miles Sanders (67.0) – The Panthers made a lot of moves in the offseason to accommodate the number one pick Bryce Young. Signing free agent Miles Sanders to one of the biggest contracts in 2023 of $25.3 million suggests he will be a cornerstone of the offense. Last season was a career year for Sanders, racking up 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and ranking 4th in the league in red zone touches with 49.
Javonte Williams (76.8) – Javonte is on the road to recovery ahead of schedule from a torn ACL he suffered early last season. More good news is that Sean Payton is in town. Running backs have been very successful for fantasy in his system for fantasy. Although they have never seen over 250 carries per season, running backs have been peppered, seeing a 31% – 35% of the receptions in New Orleans since 2017. Williams is severely undervalued due to his injury and the offseason signing of Samaje Perine, but should be taken off draft boards immediately.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon (42.6); J. K. Dobbins (67.4)
(Fade)
Travis Etienne (41.5) – The staff in Jacksonville stated they were looking to scale back on Etienne’s workload in 2023, while the rookie Tank Bigsby has been praised all summer by head coach Doug Pederson. ETE had a decent 2022 rushing for over 1,100 yards, but struggled in between the tackles, only averaging 1.8 YAC (yards after contact). The Bigsby news in camp compels me to lay off at Etienne’s current ADP.
Kenneth Walker (54.0) – Seattle taking Zach Charboonnet in the second round crushed Kenneth Walker’s fantasy value. Their pick suggests a huge investment in the rookie out of UCLA, putting Walker in a timeshare. Until we see how this backfield shakes out, let’s not take Walker this early.
Zero RB Strategy Gold
(Target)
David Montgomery (77.8) – He’ll take on the Jamaal Williams role for the Lions as the in-between the tackles, goal line back. Williams went on to break the single-season record for rushing touchdowns last year with 17, hence Montgomery is a lay-up at his current ADP running behind that top-five offensive line in Detroit.
James Connor (80.4) – He’s the forgotten man in Arizona, who owns the backfield on a team with a depleted receiver core and backup quarterback to start the year. Connor will be the workhorse in a rebuilding year and could see plenty of check downs from Colt McCoy, as he was 11.6% of the target share last season, with a catch rate of 79%.
James Cook (81.8) – Cook in his sophomore season has a clear path to be the starting back now in Buffalo with the departure of Devin Singletary. In just 91 rushing attempts in his debut season, he gained 525 yards for a solid 5.8 YPC. Cook also ranked number one in the league in breakaway run percentage, making himself a dangerous part of the Buffalo offense. A true value currently in his draft position.
D’Andre Swift (82.2) – Philadelphia acquired Swift for a reason, to bring home one of their best football prodigies of our time. It’s a crowded backfield, but don’t think for a second Swift will not be factored into the run scheme, which saw Miles Sanders last season run for over 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns. If Swift can avoid the injury bug, his yards per touch of 6.3 and yards created of 4.6 (Ranked 2nd in 2022) will be deadly for opposing linebackers, already frozen by quarterback Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability.
Rachaad White (84.5) – Like Arizona, Tampa Bay also could be hitting a few bumps in the road at quarterback. The Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask experiment may also play a lot of dink and dunk with White, who caught 50 passes from the G.O.A.T. in his rookie year. The Bucs have also moved on from veteran Leonard Fournette, so it’s Rachaad’s job to lose at running back in Tampa.
Jamaal Williams (122.8) – A suspended Alvin Kamara and a nicked-up rookie Kendre Miller should give Williams a ton of volume for the Saints to open up the season. The single-season record holder for rushing touchdowns (17) is available in the tenth round, scoop him up!
Honorable Mentions: Isiah Pacheco (90.8), Dalvin Cook (92.0), Brian Robinson (106.4)
Sleepers To Stash At Running Back
De’Von Achane (112.5) – Miami took him in the third round this year at 84th overall because he fits the scheme of head coach Mike McDaniels… Speed. Achane runs a 4.3 in the 400-yard dash while averaging 5.6 YPC at Texas A&M. Keep him on your bench to take over the Miami backfield, as Raheem Mostert is long in the tooth (31 years old) and Jeff Wilson Jr. has a track record of injuries. Achane is currently nursing a shoulder injury from a recent pre-season game but should be ready to ramp up to start the season.
Tank Bigsby (127.3) – Head Coach Doug Pederson has spoken highly of the rookie out of Auburn during training camp, mentioning he could see plenty of work in the red zone. We may see a dual backfield with Travis Etienne this season in Duval County, allowing Bigsby to be a steal at his current ADP.
Roschon Johnson (153.3) – He played in the shadows behind Bijan at Texas, but Roschon has earned his ticket into the NFL. He averaged over 5 YPC all through college, and 6 YPC in his senior year. Bijan may have gotten all the glory, but Johnson has the fresher legs, totaling just under 400 carries for his career. A great stash in a Bears offense that thrives on running the rock.
Honorable Mentions: Kenneth Gainwell (149.2); Tyjae Spears (172.4)
Thanks for checking out my Season Long Running Back article, as well as all the rest for this year! You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @DiCarlo78 for any questions on your upcoming drafts. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and use promo code “WINBIG” for a week free to access all of our content including other articles optimizer tools, podcasts, and our Projection Models. Good Luck this season and let’s crush all of our leagues!
