by Dave Gloeckner

We are just three short days from starting a new NFL season. There is optimism and happiness across every football fan’s face. It’s been seven long months since we last saw an NFL game, and we’ve had to spend time bridging the gap by entertaining ourselves in various other ways. But the wait is over, and the season is almost here. So, with that, I bring to you my top NFL Futures bets for the upcoming season.

Last year’s article was a resounding success as I went 9-1 (click the link here). And the MLB Futures article is trending nicely as my biggest plays are already locks to cash (Tampa over wins, STL under wins, etc.).

If you’re new to the Futures market, specifically team win totals, let me refresh my strategy here. Futures are a poor investment if you do it wrong. That’s because you must invest money upfront and allow it to sit for 4+ months before seeing a return. So don’t overcommit your bankroll here. Play some portion of what you’re starting with (~20%) and try to diversify your picks. For example, if starting with $500, spread your picks to 6-10 plays you like for ~$50-75 max. You don’t need to go 4x for your favorite unless it’s something you love. Otherwise, play them roughly equal (ranging from 0.5 to 1.5x) to have value across the entire NFL.

Now, onto my main principles when formulating which teams will surprise and which will disappoint or fail to meet their expectations.

FIRST PRINCIPLE – PLAYOFF TEAMS CHANGE ~50% YEAR TO YEAR

The first thing I like to do at the start of an NFL season is look at recent playoff history and trends.  Therefore, I look at playoff teams over the last five seasons as well as Division winners. From there, I try to determine what type of turnover we should expect.  By peeling back that onion, I came up with the following data:

• In the past 5 NFL seasons, 28 of the 54 playoff teams made the playoffs the season before (52%)
• In the past 5 NFL seasons, 15 of the 32 Division Winners won their Division the season before (47%)

What’s also important to note that the most “repeat” playoff teams in a conference over the past five seasons have been four. The NFL promotes parity but also has a reasonable degree of turnover because of how the schedules are structured. Other sports play all teams, with more games coming in your conference. In the NFL, teams typically play just 14 different teams, less than 50% of the league. So, schedule matters and is often a big reason we see 6-7 new teams in the playoffs each season.

NOTE:  We can expect ~3-4 new Division winners and 5-7 new playoff teams to help build our Futures predictions. Check out some of my Division preview articles for where I see value in the betting market for each team.

SECOND PRINCIPLE – PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (OVER)

For the following snapshot of who will improve and take a step back, I look at a metric called Pythagorean win percentage. This provides data as to which teams played above or below their expectations based on points for and against. Using this information, we can look at teams that got “lucky” and “unlucky.” First off, here are the teams that outperformed their Pythagorean win totals by more than one win (or went OVER their Pythagorean total):

• Cincinnati Bengals: 12 wins / 1 Pythagorean wins (1 win over)
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 wins / 7.3 Pythagorean wins (1.5 wins over)
• Kansas City Chiefs: 14 wins / 11.3 Pythagorean wins (2.5 wins over)
• Los Angeles Chargers: 10 wins / 8.6 Pythagorean wins (1.5 wins over)
• Philadelphia Eagles: 14 wins / 11.5 Pythagorean wins (2.5 wins over)
• NY Giants: 9 wins / 8.3 Pythagorean wins (0.5 wins over)
• Minnesota Vikings: 13 wins / 8.5 Pythagorean wins (4.5 wins over)
• Tampa Bucs: 8 wins / 7 Pythagorean wins (1 win over)

What stands out are the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. The Steelers are the only non-playoff team on this list and outperformed their point differential by 1.5 wins. This is significant as many teams that make the playoffs can ease off in games and get a slightly lower point differential. But when you’re grinding all year, as the Steelers did, and still outperform your total, then this is something we need to tuck in the back pocket.

As for the Vikings, we all know they were the most fraudulent 13-win team in NFL history.  Their point differential suggested they should be below 0.500 instead of 9 games over it.  That’s because they won an NFL record eleven games by one score.  This is a team we will assess more going forward.

THIRD PRINCIPLE – PYTHAGOREAN WIN PERCENTAGE (UNDER)

Just like the second principle above, but this time we look at teams that underperformed.  The Pythagorean theory predicted the following teams should have won more than their actual win total. 

• New England Patriots: 8 wins / 9 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• New York Jets:  7 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Cleveland Browns: 7 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 wins / 10 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Indianapolis Colts: 4 wins / 5 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Houston Texans: 3 wins / 5 Pythagorean wins (2 wins under)
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (2 wins under)
• Denver Broncos: 5 wins / 6 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Chicago Bears: 3 wins / 5 Pythagorean wins (2 wins under)
• Carolina Panthers:  7 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• New Orlean Saints:  7 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• Atlanta Falcons:  7 wins / 8 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)
• LA Rams:  5 wins / 6 Pythagorean wins (1 win under)

As you can see, most teams that underperformed according to Pythagorean were not very good in 2022.  But I highlight the Chicago Bears because their case is compelling as they have the highest delta of any team (actual difference between wins and Pythagorean is 2.15).  The Bears are a dark horse that many prognosticators like.  And they may have good reason to believe that based upon last year’s performance and their offseason moves. However, their win total is 7.5 meaning they would have to win five more games than last season’s total.

FOURTH PRINCIPLE – TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL / FUMBLE RECOVERIES

The last set of data I like to assess is turnover (TO) differential.  We often have teams that standout in this area if they ended with a high standard deviation.  The other area to examine is successful fumble recoveries as this has been proven to be a “lucky” statistic and doesn’t translate from year to year.

For example, Indianapolis was 2^nd in the NFL in 2021 with a +14 TO differential.  They ended up last in 2022 with a -13 TO differential.  That is a year-to-year outlier.  Here are a few numbers that stick out for just 2022:

• New Orleans Saints were 31^st in NFL with a -11 TO differential.  They created just 14 TO’s which was 2^nd lowest in NFL.  They also added a new QB to help reduce their 25 TO’s on offense.
• New York Jets were tied 29^th in NFL with a -7 TO differential.  In comes Aaron Rodgers to help that number.  They also recovered just 4 fumbles which was 2^nd lowest in the league.
• Miami Dolphins were tied 29^th in NFL with a -7 TO differential.  They created just 14 TO’s which was 2^nd lowest in the NFL.
• Dallas Cowboys were 2^nd in the NFL with a +10 TO differential.  This was because they led the NFL in fumble recoveries with 17.  That was 4 more than the next closest team and the most since the Steelers had 18 fumble recoveries in 2019.

FIFTH PRINCIPLE – STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This metric is self-explanatory however it’s one of the most important when looking at projected performance.  For example, the Eagles had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2022 and used that to go 14-3.  Yet during the middle of the season, many were doubting their pristine record because of “their easy schedule”.  Well for those of you who saw that and used it to make money, then kudos to you.  For those with the excuses, you play who is on your schedule and you should have known better.  So that’s why this piece of data may be the most important to futures betting.

According to www.profootballnetwork.com the below teams have the easiest schedule this season:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Houston Texans

We’ll get to some of these teams later and why this is so important to our betting strategy.

Now that we’ve assessed five sets of data that I believe are important in predicting future performance, let’s put it all together and make some money.  Without further ado, I bring to you my favorite Win Totals bets of 2023.

#1 Green Bay Packers over 7.5 wins (-110 DK)

The Packers hit several of the key metrics I’m looking for when betting an over win total.  First, they have a history of winning and their play in 2022 was not up to standard. The Packers won 13 games each season over a three-year period from 2019 thru 2021.  Last year they hit a speed bump and won only eight games.  But the coaching staff, including HC Matt LaFluer, is there and can lean on the past successful seasons to help bring a winning atmosphere back to the Wisconsin area.

Next, they meet principle #1 as they didn’t make the playoffs last season.  They also fit principle #3 as their 8 wins were actually 0.5 wins under their expected total.  As for principle #4, their TO differential was +2 which was within one standard deviation of the mean.  But their fumble recoveries were the 5^th lowest in the league at seven.  And they only recovered 58.3% of their fumbles forced which was lower than the league average of 68.5%.  In 2021, they recovered 80% of forced fumbles so they regressed last season but have a chance to bounce back this year.

Then there’s the new sheriff in town at quarterback in Jordan Love.  Green Bay has had the fortune of calling home to two future Hall of Famers in Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.  Together, they’ve been under center in Green Bay for the past 31 years.  The Packers have groomed QB’s in the past for success and made a full commitment to Jordan Love in the offseason based on the things they’ve seen from in over the past three seasons.  And all news out of Wisconsin is that Jordan Love is looking like the Packers could be right once again. 

The last reason for confidence in this pick is that Minnesota will not win 13 games again.  There will be wins to be had. And as shown in Principle #5, Green Bay has the 3^rd easiest schedule including the 2^nd easiest set of road games.  Add to that the Packers own the best defense in the Division and we have several reasons to believe that Green Bay will be a factor in the NFC North, and NFC, in 2023.

#2 New York Jets over 9.5 wins (-110 DK)

The New York Jets hype is real. We are backing up our first play of the season with riding the coattails of former Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.  There are many reasons to like the Jets this year and it starts with #8.  The Jets were a mess at QB last season as they fumbled through Zack Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White.  New York’s offense committed 23 turnovers ranking in the bottom 3^rd of the NFL.  And on defense, they were unfortunate as they recovered just 38% of the forced fumbles they created.

There’s also the fact that the Jets did end up in last place in the AFC East.  That means they wind up playing the Texans, Browns, and Falcons as their matchup games.  That’s a big difference compared to a team like Buffalo that gets the Jaguars, Bengals and Bucs as the reward for being a first place team. 

Overall, I think the AFC East is much closer to a coin flip this season and if the Jets can have a few things break their way, or just simply get competent QB play, they will exceed this win total and see themselves playing mid-January football for the first time since 2010.

#3 Seattle Seahawks over 9.5 wins (+120 DK)

I am onboard with the team from the Emerald City this season.  The Seattle Seahawks likely arrived a season early last year as they surprised many and made the playoffs under QB Geno Smith.  The 2022 season was thought to be a transition year as they traded away franchise legend QB Russell Wilson and created draft equity for the next several years.  But instead, they used that as motivation and won their opening game against the Broncos which fueled them to an impressive season.

And maybe we should have seen that coming.  Afterall, they underperformed in 2021 by two wins according to Pythagorean.  But what really gave this team a boost was their two standout rookies in RB Kenneth Walker and DB Tariq Woolen.  Because of the assets they gained in the Wilson trade, they were able to acquire several outstanding players in the 2023 NFL Draft as well including the #5 pick CB Devon Witherspoon and the #20 pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

This year, Seattle has the 7^th easiest schedule in the NFL which starts with a game against the Rams who could be without star WR Cooper Kupp.  Seattle has depth and star power on offense and defense.  They also have the 12^th man which makes their stadium one of the hardest to play in.  I expect Seattle to challenge San Fran for the AFC West title this year.  And in doing so, they’ll eclipse their win total for a 2^nd straight season.

#4 Pittsburgh Steelers under 9.5 wins (-140 DK)

Is this finally the year that Mike Tomlin posts a losing record?  History says no as he hasn’t had one in 17 years as head coach of the Steelers.  But I’m having a hard time seeing this team not be last place in the AFC North.  I know many people out there believe the late surge last season shows the potential, but they still ended up with a negative point differential and outperformed their suggested win total by 2 games. 

I see teams like Cleveland and Baltimore being better in 2023 and Cincinnati is still the team to beat in the North. Add to that, Pittsburgh has the worst QB and offensive weapons in that group.  They also had the most defensive interceptions in the league, with 20, which will be hard to repeat.

The disparity on offense between them and the rest of the Division is staggering. The Steelers threw the fewest TD’s in the league last season (12) and ranked 25^th in yard per rush.  While they signed several FA’s to help improve a patchwork offensive line the jury is still out that the newcomers will make vast improvements.  I’m going against the grain here, but last season tells me enough about the road ahead.  And with the core offense still intact, that won’t be good news for Steelers fans.

Note – I’m buying the juice here to 9.5 wins but will also bet at 8.5 wins (+120)

#5 New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (-110 DK)

The NFC South is finally free of the reign of the GOAT.  Tom Brady decided to hang it up, and this time for good, leaving the Bucs with Baker Mayfield at QB.  And as we all know from his past play in Cleveland, Carolina, and LA, that’s not a good thing for Tampa.  The other two teams in the Division have first year starting QB’s, Atlanta with Desmond Ridder and Carolina with Bryce Young.  Which puts the Saints at a huge advantage at the most important position in football as they brought in former All Pro QB Derek Carr to take the reins of their offense in 2023.

The other factor is the Saints play their cross-conference games against the AFC South which is, as mentioned before, the worst division in football.  With that, and playing against the weaker competition in the NFC South, the Saints have the easiest schedule in the league this year.

And let’s not forget a stat we laid out above, New Orleans had the 2^nd worst TO differential and won 7 games.  They created the least number of turnovers of any team in the league which was surprising as they allowed the 5^th lowest yards and had the 4^th most sacks in the NFL.  We equate that partly to luck as several bounces didn’t go their way.  Projecting forward, they will improve on both the defensive turnovers and TO differential in 2023.

When all is said and done, 9.5 wins is a lot to cover.  But with the schedule, the talent and the positive regression in turnovers, I have confidence in this Saints team to rise and win the NFC South while also going over their win total.

#6 Minnesota Vikings under 8.5 wins (-110 DK)

I’ve talked about this at length in my NFC NORTH preview.  But to recap here, the Vikings won an NFL record 11 games by one score last season.  They are the only 13-win team in NFL history to have a negative point differential.  On defense, they were a wreck but recovered 91% of their forced fumbles which is another stat that favors the fortunate. Their magical 2022 season is something made in Hollywood.  Which is a nice way to say it’s not repeatable.

The Vikings expected win total last year based on point differential was 8.5.  As highlighted above, their defense was the main reason for so many shootouts as they ranked 30^th in points allowed, 31^st in yards per game and 31^st in passing yards.  And the biggest offseason acquisition on that side of the ball was bringing in DC Brian Flores.  Overall, they still lack elite talent upfront and are susceptible to big plays.

On offense they lost Adam Theilen but replaced him with rookie Jordan Addison.  The Vikings will still present a formidable offense, but can they really rely on the late game comebacks again?

The real reason for this bet though, outside of Pythagorean differential, luck in close games and turnover success, is that the Vikings face a first-place schedule.  They get Philly, Kansas City, and San Fran as part of that reward.  In fact, they have the 5^th hardest schedule according to Sharp Football. And the NFC North has gotten better as the Lions, Bears and Packers all improved over the offseason.  The Vikings made special moments in 2022 but I see a different form of karma playing out in 2023.

BONUS:  Indianapolis Colts over 6.5 wins (+100 DK)

This one is a little dicey because of how the Colts have handled the Jonathan Taylor situation.  Their inability to sign their star RB to an extension has created turbulence on a team that just didn’t need it.  That’s because they are starting the season with a rookie HC in Shane Steichen and rookie QB in Anthony Richardson.

But even though the air is rough in Indy, there is reason to be optimistic.  First, the Colts led the league last season with a staggering 34 turnovers.  Since 2019, the team that led the league in turnovers reduced their total in the following season by at least 7.  And looking at 2021, the Jaguars led the league in turnovers and TO differential only to rebound in 2022 and win the AFC South and improve their differential by 25.

Then there’s the quarterback situation which has been a turnstile in Indy.  From Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, the Colts are on their 6^th straight different starting QB to open a season.  But Anthony Richardson is the first since Andrew Luck to instill confidence and hope as his unique skillset will create problems for opposing defenses.  Giving him the starting QB on Opening Day also shows his accelerated growth to date.

The last factor is the Colts play in the worst Division in football and have 6 games against teams they can compete with.  They also face the NFC South which is similarly bad and brings four winnable games to the schedule.  According to ProFootball Network, they have the 4^th easiest schedule in the NFL.

In all, I’m not overly gushing about the Colts.  But history tells us they will improve their TO’s and they have a favorable schedule.  Even last season they beat the Chiefs and went toe-to-toe with the Eagles.  There is talent in Indy and they just need to get above the turbulence and find some clean air.  If not, forget I wrote this one.

Now that you finished reading the 2023 NFL WIN TOTAL article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.