Dave Gloeckner 
The calendar has moved to July and over here at Win Daily Sports, we have started to shift our focus to the biggest stage in all of sports; the NFL. That’s not to say that you won’t see daily content for MLB or other key sports such as NASCAR and UFC. The 2023 NFL Season is upon us as training camp is just 18 short days away from opening in many cities. What better way to churn up the football juices other than with NFL futures and betting advice? Today, we are looking at my favorite 2023 NFL MVP bets.
But before we look at the players that will headline the football story this year we must look at the past winners of this award so that we can rightfully align ourselves with how voters typically lean. Since 2000, there have been 23 winners of the NFL MVP award. Of those 23 winners, 19 have been QB’s. The remaining 4 were RB’s and as follows:
- 2000 Marshall Faulk (2189 yards from scrimmage, 26 total TD’s)
- 2005 Shaun Alexander (NFL leader in rushing w/ 1880 yards, NFL record 27 rushing TDs which was broken by LT following year)
- 2006 LaDanian Tomlinson (NFL leader in rushing w/ 1815 yards, NFL record 28 rushing TDs)
- 2012 Adrian Peterson (2097 yards rushing, 2nd most all time; Vikings 10-6 wild card)
One common theme for each of those above is that each RB had a historic season and their teams made the playoffs. With the landscape of the NFL changing, and running backs being used less and less in the running game, it will be hard to see an RB challenge for the MVP award this year. So we can likely eliminate all ball carriers from our player pool.
WIDE RECEIVER FOR MVP?
Even more fascinating is that a wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP award. Even in Randy Moss’s historic season of 1998, when the Vikings went 15-1, he received just 4 votes. Jerry Rice never won MVP but did win Offensive Player of the Year in 1987. And when Calvin Johnson set the all-time record for receiving yards in a season with 1,964, he received 0 first-place MVP votes. It would take a record-setting season for a WR to even get a vote let alone with the award. But we can’t fully rule them out since the NFL has shifted to a pass-heavy league. The only pass catchers we can consider are those that could challenge a 2000-yard receiving season as it would be the first in NFL history.
HAS A DEFENSIVE PLAYER WON MVP?
That brings us to the last position that should be considered for MVP and that is defensive lineman. Since 1971, two defensive players have won MVP and they are Alan Page (1971; Vikings DL) and Lawrence Taylor (1986; Giants DL). It took a Super Bowl title and a then-record 20.5 sacks for Taylor to win the award in 1986. Alan Page was part of the Purple People Eater’s defensive line that terrorized the NFL for several years and he had 10 sacks and 3 safeties in 14 games during his MVP season.
For a defensive lineman to win the award in today’s NFL, we would need to see a new sack record (currently 22.5) and a dominant defensive team performance for all 17 games. Unfortunately, I don’t see any defensive player that will be able to dominate enough to win this award based on all the offensive numbers we’ll see. Even if Bosa or Parsons sets the sack record, can his team defense be dominant enough as were the Giants and Vikings of years past?
So there you have it, we’ve already narrowed down our search to QB’s, potential 2000-yard WR’s, and otherworldly DL’s that could establish new NFL records. With that being said, I introduce to you the 4 players that I will be backing for 2023 NFL MVP. Note the books where I found the best odds. You need to shop around as some were off by as much as 10-1 odds.
JALEN HURTS +1200 (Bet365)
In 2022, Patrick Mahomes received 48 of 50 first-place votes for MVP. Jalen Hurts was one of two players to receive a first-place vote as he mustered 1 tying him with Josh Allen. For Hurts to receive only one vote seemed short of where he should have landed but it was likely due to the fact that he missed 2 games due to injury.
What’s important here is that the Super Bowl performance has put Hurts on everyone’s radar as he outplayed Patrick Mahomes on the biggest stage but fell just short of holding the Vince Lombardi trophy. And falling just short may be the added motivation that Hurts needs to put up even better numbers in 2023. In 2022, he threw for 3,701 yards with 22 pass touchdowns. But he also added 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing TD’s.
If we see any increase in those numbers, which we should if he plays 17 games, and the Eagles stay near the top of the standings, which they should given their roster, then Hurts will once again be in the top 3 of NFL MVP voting. Getting a perennial star, who shined in only his 3rd NFL season, on a team with high aspirations feels like a good bet. It feels like a great bet when you get that same player at 11-1.
LAMAR JACKSON +1600 (Caesers)
Lamar Jackson is a former NFL MVP as he won the award in 2019 when he ran for an NFL record 1,206 yards. He totaled 43 total touchdowns that season and led the Ravens to a 13-2 record when he started. He also had his highest passing yard total that season with 3,127 yards. That is noteworthy simply because if he plays well this year the voters will certainly compare numbers from his 2019 campaign.
There are two primary reasons why I’m all in on LJack this season. First, his contract fiasco is over and he has financial stability. We all know that hung over the Ravens and Lamar and clouded the QB’s hampered his play. But that’s all behind him now and he’s being paid as a top 5 QB in the league. The second reason is the Ravens decided to go all-in on helping out their QB and finally improving their WR core. Baltimore has tried to solve their WR issues through the draft but they haven’t had anyone step up and be the number one guy. They traded away their last 1000-yard WR in Marquise Brown and tried to replace him with Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman. While both have talent, they haven’t been able to stay healthy enough to show it.
So in comes Odell Beckham Jr to take over the lead receiver role. And in comes 1st round pick Zay Flowers to add speed and playmaking ability in the slot. They also brought in Nelson Agholor for the deep ball threat. Now the WR depth chart is deep and talented. And don’t forget the Ravens have a top 3 TE in Mark Andrews. This is definitely the most talented offensive core that Lamar Jackson has had to work with.
If Lamar passes for 4,000 yards and rushes for 700 more he will be in the talks for MVP. At the current odds, this bet is very much worth the risk that comes with Jackson (i.e. injuries) because he is paid and has the best weapons around him that he’s had in his career.
RUSSELL WILSON +4500 (Caesers)
Now comes the real value in our MVP projections. Russ did not cook in 2022. To be fair, he couldn’t cook as Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett was way over his head. He started off by providing a cultured environment that allowed special privileges to his star players. From that point on Hackett was doomed and headed towards failure. So Denver hired Mr. Accountability, Sean Payton, to take over as the lead signal caller. That alone should be worth your time and money considering he turned Drew Brees into one of the best QB’s in his era.
Wilson is surrounded by exceptional talent, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, and rookie Marvin Mims. He also has weapons at RB and TE that will help him improve drastically in Sean Payton’s offense. With the defense in Denver, they look to be one of the best bounce-back teams in 2023. And if that occurs, Wilson will be the one to reap those benefits.
NOTE: Will also bet Russell Wilson +2000 as Comeback Player of the Year.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON +10,000 (DraftKings)
As stated in our opening, no WR has won the NFL MVP award. And no WR has ever reached 2000 yards receiving. I’m fully aware of how big of a challenge it is to name a WR as MVP. However, as noted above, special seasons by Marshall Faulk, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Adrian Peterson all ended in MVP seasons.
For this bet to cash, we’re going to need 2000 yards and 20+ TDs from Jefferson. And honestly, that isn’t too far of a reach. The Vikings WR has been getting better every season and he topped that off with 128 receptions and 1809 receiving yards in 2022. Gone is Adam Theilen but in comes talented rookie Jordan Addison. To me, this is a complete upgrade and will help free up Jefferson more. This means he just needs to up his yards per game by 11.5 to reach the ultimate receiving stratosphere. Obviously, the TDs will need to increase but losing Dalvin Cook may also become Jefferson’s gain.
In all, Minnesota’s D was bad last year and hasn’t greatly improved. They will need to play in shootouts which should be fuel to Jefferson’s chances of setting the record books. With all that said, I think he has a better than 100-1 chance of setting the NFL receiving record which makes this best have value.
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