Dave Gloeckner 
We are less than 2 weeks from NFL teams opening their training camps. The anticipation for this season is so great as there is no clear favorite and a litany of teams that could hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season. We’re going to start diving into each division and we’ll start this series with one of the most fascinating of all; the AFC East.
We have a Hall of Fame QB that has joined the AFC East. We have one of the greatest coaches of all times who has made significant roster changes, again. And then there’s a team with a polarizing coach and oft injured QB that can win track meets if they could only stay healthy. Finally, we have the Mafia that is battling through issues and seasons of promise that have fallen well short. Can they rebound and finally push past the wall that keeps knocking them down?
This article will focus on division winning odds and which team I believe will end up being crowned AFC East Champ. Win totals will be in a separate article closer to the season’s start.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +800
The roster re-shaping since TB12 left town took another huge turn this offseason. Coming off their 2nd losing season in the last 3 years, the Patriots added TE Mike Gesicki and WR Juju Smith Schuster to help bolster a dull offense.
But the biggest question mark for New England still lies behind center. Is Mac Jones what we saw in his rookie season where he managed the team and found ways to win games by not turning the ball over? Or is he the turnover-prone edition we saw last season? I do believe he’s a serviceable NFL QB but I don’t think he’s had the weapons or coaching to thrive. However, this year he is reunited with his college coordinator in Bill O’Brien which should help put him in positions to succeed. As for weapons, New England is relying on Tyquan Thorton to continue to improve. And they are also depending on rookie WR Kayshon Boutte to make an immediate impact. And while that could happen, the Patriots still don’t compare to the weapons in Miami and Buffalo (and even NY).
In all, New England’s offense is still one that doesn’t impress, and in a division filled with high-octane offenses, they won’t be able to keep up. The Patriots will be closer to last then they will be to first place in the AFC East. And that could mean the end of the Belichick era.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
NEW YORK JETS +270
If you’ve come here expecting Aaron Rodgers love, then you will want to scroll down past this part of the article. I’m glad he came out of his darkness retreat to find some clarity but at that point, Green Bay had enough and had already moved on. It took over 2 months for them to get the right deal done with New York but it happened. And here we are, Rodgers following the same track as former Green Bay QB Brett Favre. And I think this story will end up close to that one.
Now, that’s not to say the Jets made a bad move. I love the move for the New Yorkers. The team has a solid roster but was missing that one key piece, a Quarterback. And out of the options available, Rodgers was easily the best choice. He’s going to bring many things to the locker room but the most important will be accountability. There will be no more pointing fingers at Zack Wilson or Mike White but instead at themselves. And Rodgers will make sure of that.
On paper, the Jets have the best defensive unit in this division and are led by DB Sauce Gardner who won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season. HC Robert Salah also has an attacking defensive front that can create havoc. On the offensive side, they also had a Rookie of the Year in WR Garrett Wilson who is now joined with Packers castoffs Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb. But it all revolves around Aaron Rodgers and how he adapts to a new city and team. The Jets have the talent and now the QB to be contenders in the AFC. But I think they’re still behind the Bills and Dolphins. So this one is a pass for me as the transition to a new QB will take some time to evolve.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
BUFFALO BILLS +120
The Bills are America’s Sentimental Team. From the amazing playoff game in 2021 against the Chiefs which ended in excruciating pain to Damar Hamlin’s situation in 2022, we all have a piece of the Bills in our hearts. However, the reality is the Bills have vastly underperformed as they have 47 wins in the last 4 seasons but no super bowl appearances. They win blowouts but can’t win any close games (lost 3 games by a total of 8 points). Josh Allen has seemed to regress slightly since his fantastic season in 2020. He threw a total of 17 interceptions last season and some were in the most crucial moments which is now leading some to question his ability to win the big games.
And now there is training camp drama as Stefon Diggs is creating a stir. He was sent home on the first day of mandatory training camp which has led to Josh Allen and others coming to his defense. It’s a distraction that is taking away from the football side of things.
The truth is, the Bills are still a very talented team. They didn’t make any significant changes over the offseason but their biggest one was the drafting of TE Dalton Kincaid. Their new weapon will be used in the slot and provide a dynamic playmaker to an already strong offense. Ultimately, the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC East. But at +120, the odds are not good enough for me to bet on them as they have two teams on the rise in Miami and New York. While the Bills should still win the Division and challenge for 12 to 13 wins, this is a pass for me.
VERDICT: PASS / NO BET
MIAMI DOLPHINS +300
The Dolphins are one of the most polarizing teams in the league and it all starts with Head Coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel is quirky and funny but most importantly he is a smart football coach who leads his players with intent. Has he made mistakes? Absolutely as the handling of the Tua concussion was botched on several levels. But do his players love him? That’s 1000% and something paramount to success in team sports. And as coaching goes, they also add Vic Fangio to help improve a defense that was ranked 18th in yards allowed and was 27th against the pass.
On the field, the Dolphins boast one of the best rosters in football. They traded for Jalen Ramsey from the Rams to form one of the best secondaries in the league as they pair him with All-Pro Xavien Howard. They also added depth at WR (Chosen Anderson, Braxton Berrios) and other areas such as QB (Mike White) and LB (David Long).
The key to everything revolves around Tua Tagovailoa and his health. The Dolphins QB went 8-5 last season and threw 25 TD’s. He is a smart and accurate thrower who makes good decisions. With Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, he has elite talent on the outside to make plays. They’ll need someone to step up at RB and better balance the offense. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson will get the first crack but the Dolphins also drafted De’Von Achane as insurance.
In the end, I believe this is the most talented team in the Division. They also have one of the best coaching staffs between McDaniel and Fangio. The Dolphins have won the AFC East just once in the last 22 years and haven’t won a playoff game since 2001. But that all changes this year as I think the Dolphins are serious contenders in the AFC.
VERDICT: BET +300
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