DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Augusta National Golf Club. Few places on earth evoke the same emotion from even the most rudimentary golf fan. Perhaps for you it is the legacy of the greats having won here. Perhaps it is the iconic Masters theme song. Or perhaps it is the stash of pimento cheese sandwich ingredients stocking your fridge, still costing just $1.50 on course, ready for the greatest weekend in golf (recipe here). Either way, we all know that this week is special in not only the world of golf, but for sport in general. And having successfully tipped 4 of the last 7 Masters (Willett, Garcia, Woods, and Matsuyama), hopefully our 2023 Masters Picks are special too.
It truly was a spectacular March where we bagged Kurt Kitayama at 60/1 after round 1, Taylor Moore at 70/1, and Nick Bachem at 100/1. That stunning run has elevated our profit further for the year to +13% on the DP World Tour, a whopping +59% on the PGA Tour, and +41% overall. That truly puts these selections within the top echelon of golf analysts. Long may that run continue.
Course Analysis
The first starting point for our 2023 Masters picks at Augusta National should perhaps simply state that the course is long. Very long. Ranking in the top 5 of the regular tournament stops for course length, this fact continues to go missed. This is possibly due to the few golfers who have managed to buck the trend, perhaps most notably with Zach Johnson.
This, however, is not the norm. Driving distance is a huge asset to have in your arsenal here. It should form a base for your 2023 Masters picks. The par 5 13th has been lengthened by 35 yards, ensuring that we will see many more players choosing to lay up rather than risking a trip into Rae’s Creek. Even then, Rory McIlroy described hitting a perfect drive and being left with a 5 iron for his second shot with the ball 20 inches above his feet. A daunting shot for even the most calm of heads, and surely further enhanced if in contention come Sunday.
Adding to this is that the fairway grass at Augusta is traditionally mown towards the tee, limiting run out. And, with wet weather forecast for this year’s tournament, this will see even less carry compared to previous iterations. Fortunately, the fairways are reasonably wide with less penal rough than seen on other courses.
What is at a premium for our 2023 Masters picks is iron play, with McIlroy describing this as trying to hit a corridor of just 5-10 yards in some instances or you will be off the green. Shot-shaping remains key and, famously, a draw is required on a number of holes to really take advantage of the topography.
Course Comps for our 2023 Masters Picks
Firstly, it should be noted that the best comp course for The Masters is actually simply itself. Augusta National has the “stickiest” course history of any regular course on the schedule. This is tempered (only somewhat) by the fact that this is a smaller field and often features many of the same names year on year. However, there are absolutely intricacies to this place which make it a unique test.
Good guides for The Masters can be found at Riviera Country Club, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, Liberty National, Muirfield Village, and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. All are less penal off the tee, demand long driving distance, and ball striking is at a premium.
The other notable guide has been the Dubai Desert Classic. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The form lines go further than this, with multiple top finishes translating to success at The Masters.
Weather for our 2023 Masters Picks
Augusta loves to throw up a curly weather forecast in the lead to The Masters. This year has proven no exception, providing possibly the most challenging forecast to wrap our head around. Thunderstorms were originally forecast all four days. The threat of this Thursday has dissipated somewhat, with conditions to improve as the day goes on. Calmest winds are forecast for the evening.
Friday the chance of thunderstorms remains. Friday AM should provide the lowest winds all week. Rain should arrive in the late afternoon. This will sometimes be heavy. Winds should also rise substantially in the afternoon. However, Saturday could possibly be the absolute worst of it. Very heavy rains is forecast, which would see significant delay of play. Comparatively, Sunday looks at least drier and slightly less windy.
My lean, after much analysis, is that a Thursday PM/Friday AM start looks to shape best this year. This comes with it’s own risks. Any thunderstorms or delays in play early could completely flip this edge. However, I feel somewhat confident that some form of edge will develop and that it is most likely to be for the Thursday PM tee time groupings.
All up, this equates to a scenario where I can at least say this. Should the forecast remain as is, we will be looking at our first Monday finish for The Masters since 1983.
2023 Masters Picks
Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking
Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Masters Picks Favourite
5pts WIN +750 Draftkings
5pts Top 5 +165 Draftkings
or 5pts E/W +700 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Jason Day
2pts WIN +2800 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +210 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2500 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau
FUTURE 1pt E/W +5000 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 10 +210 Bet365 or +200 MGM
Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value
FUTURE 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds) or +15000 WIN Draftkings
2pts Top 20 +200 Draftkings
Ryan Fox
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings/MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +220 Bet365 or +165 Draftkings
Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +23000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +175 Draftkings
Player Profiles
Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Master Picks Favourite
Will this be the year? So often with regard to McIlroy, that is the question that crosses the lips of every golf fan entering The Masters. As subscribers of WinDaily will know, it is extremely rare for me to go to the top of the board in my selections. In this case, I believe it is warranted.
McIlroy stuck a calm and composed figure in the press conference this year. He oozed confidence, even admitting he has realized he This was in stark contrast to last year, where he was nervous and somewhat irritable. Perhaps, this may have been due to the cloud of LIV Golf appearing on the horizon. Ironically, he would finish 2nd carding a record equaling 64 on Sunday in what may in retrospect become his breakthrough moment.
Rory has spent extended time at Augusta National this year. He has already completed more than 81 holes in the last two weeks. With a new driver and putter in the bag, both have yielded immediate results for him. The driver of particular is of note. That is the cornerstone of Rory’s game. Finding comfort off the tee, with his prodigious driving distance, will be key to his success.
Rory and LIV Golf
I also noted that Rory played 9 holes with Brooks Koepka. My speculation would be that he simply wishes to leave no stone unturned in his preparations. Part of that involved putting himself in close proximity playing with a LIV golfer.
The fact is, performance at this year’s Masters is essential for the LIV Golf pros. For a tour struggling for relevance, this almost feels like the last chance saloon for them. Greg Norman has already thrown fuel on the fire by suggesting the LIV golfers would storm the 18th green if one of them won. As the face of the PGA Tour throughout this period, without doubt Rory will be doing everything in his power to stop that happening.
Conversely, this may benefit Rory as he headlines our 2023 Masters picks. We saw what he did at the Canadian Open after some inflammatory comments from Norman. The fact that his performance could become bigger than him and instead become a narrative about the entire future of the professional game of golf is, in my opinion, a good thing.
Finally, it was aforementioned that both Willett and Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The 2023 Dubai Desert Classic champion? Rory McIlroy. His 3rd win at that event.
Jason Day
Experiencing a sharp return to form towards the backend of 2022, Jason Day is back! The resurgence has since resulted in a run of 6 consecutive top 20 finishes and a quarterfinal run at the WGC Matchplay before just falling short to one Scottie Scheffler.
It seems somewhat unbelievable that Day holds just one major given his prior high-flying status. His record at the Masters is decent, holding a 2nd on debut in 2011 alongside a 3rd, 10th, and a number of top 30 finishes. Missed cuts in 2020 and 2021 can be discounted given the abysmal state of his game in those years.
Day possess the credentials and the all round game to compete here. His excellent short game will be an asset in any torrid weather conditions that come his way. Over the last 6 months, he ranks inside the top 20 in every singles strokes gained metric including. Notably, he is also sitting 3rd for SG Total over the last 3 months in this field. I also love his putting stats on the pure bentgrass greens of Muirfield. He makes a compelling case for me, in what would be an emotional victory solidifying his return to the top echelons of the game.
Tony Finau
Finau already boasts a promising Masters resume, with no missed cuts for finishes of 10-5-38-10-35. He firmly put to bed the biggest concern of his game over the last 18 months: winning. 4 wins over that period saw him surge to the forefront of everyone’s minds. It does, however, seem he is going missed a little this week.
Since November, Finau has not finished outside the top 25 on tour. The majority of these have also included the top fields in the newly formed elevated events. Included in that run is a 7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which is highly correlated to Augusta National with it’s undulating fairways resulting in many approach shots with the ball either above or below the player’s feet.
Finau rates out as 4th in SG: APP, 8th SG: T2G, and 5th SG: Total in this field over the last 6 months. Those numbers only improve when looking at a 3 month window. A breakthrough Masters victory would come at no surprise, for a golfer we advised WinDaily to back here in July 2022. I still like him at the odds on offer now, given the continued improvement in his game.
Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value
The talented 24 year old Australian has long been ear-marked in my books as a potential major winner. In fact, his sister Minjee Lee has already done the job twice in majors on the LPGA. Min Woo Lee boasts prodigious distance off the tee, a key focus for me in my selections this week. He is one of my biggest movers this week given this and his weighted approach numbers to suit Augusta National.
He saw this on display in his Masters debut, where he finished 14th. That result was perhaps even better than it first looks, given he shot a 40 back 9 on Sunday to drop 4 shots coming home. I can easily forgive this for a young talented golfer suddenly finding himself firmly in the top 10 of the Masters. He has since backed this performance up with finishes of 21st and 27th at The Open and the US Open respectively. A recent 6th at The Players Championship again reaffirmed that Min Woo can produce his best at these high profile events. A second up win at big odds could shock many but the most astute pundits.
Ryan Fox
Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox profiles as one of the best outsiders at this tournament for our 2023 Masters picks. I’ll admit I was very drawn to Thomas Pieters in this spot, with Foxy just gaining the edge given the perceived tee time advantage.
Fox boasts huge distance off the tee, sitting 6th in this field over the last 2 years for driving distance. What he has found over the last year is a tangible improvement in his approach play, alongside gains around the greens and putting. 2022 saw Ryan Fox claim two victories, including the prestigious Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a stacked field.
I do note it is his Masters debut. We have weighted the expectations accordingly. However, he profiles extremely well given his raw power combined with the long iron approach play and deft touch around the greens. A rare and dangerous combination for a player with such driving distance.
Taylor Moore
Finally, we wrap up our 2023 Masters picks with a speculative play on the talented Taylor Moore. Moore punched his ticket for the Masters with a win at the Valspar Championship. As mentioned, Copperhead may very well be a decent course comp to here. Patrick Reed was 2nd there before winning the Masters. Spieth won both in 2015 (although, he also just won a lot in general that year). Charl Schwartzel has also completed the double. He understandably has foregone a start at the Valero Texas Open to prepare for this event after the Valspar win.
Over the last 3 months Moore sits 16th for SG: Total, 13th for SG: OTT, and 15th for SG: PUTT. I love the fact he earns his strokes off the tee not just with his driving distance (27th in this field), but also by being highly accurate. A confident driver of the ball is always a great start at Augusta.
Basically, this is far too much value on this price. With fair odds sitting more in the 150-170 mark, weighting for margin of error, we can be delighted with the price being put out for him here.
Thank you reading our 2023 Masters picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
