DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Another winner! What a run we have been on of late. We secured our 9th outright winner of the year as we picked up back-to-back winners with J.T. Poston going wire-to-wire for us at the John Deere Classic at 50/1. Of course, following on from the 65/1 hit on Haotong Li the week prior we now have a three-peat on the cards at this week’s Scottish Open.
To compliment the win, we also had Fabrizio Zanotti at the Irish Open who held the lead at various points of the tournament and entered the final round just one shot back. Eventually finishing 4th, we cashed bets on a place pay out of $13.17 (after ties) and a Top 10 at $8.00 odds.
Various others featured throughout the tournaments. At the John Deere, Cam Davis was 8th and Mark Hubbard 13th to come agonisingly close to place payouts. In Ireland, Sami Valimaki finished with a final round -7 and contended for a Top 20 having been tipped at triple-figure odds as did Sean Crocker. Ewen Ferguson was one shot off the lead midway through the 2nd round before one errant drive ended in an unplayable position. Back to the tee, in what led to a quadruple bogey, and an unfortunate tumble from 5th to missing the cut on the number mainly resulting from that one poor shot. Golf can be a game of the finest of margins.
An exciting event at the Scottish Open this week in one of the strongest fields of the year, with 14 of the world’s top 15 players present. Long planned before LIV Golf came on the scene, this week is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour at a very welcome time following a rather lacklustre LIV event in Portland. Who should you bet for the Scottish Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and golf betting tips.
Course Analysis
The Scottish Open this week is held at The Renaissance Club. This Tom Doak design is traditionally a 7,237-yard par-71. However, this week sees the par-5 7th hole reduced to a very long 505-yard par-4. With a fair chunk of yardage also eaten up by two of the five par-3s being very short (147-yards and 161-yards), this means many reasonably long par-4s greet the players this week. This will see a disproportionate number of shots played at over 200 yards, so proximity to pin for approaches over 200 yards is certainly part of the receipt to success here.
Typical links features abound with large undulating greens, fescue grass running much slower as well as hiding multiple breaks, and deep pot bunkers. As with all links courses, scrambling and putting will be essential with missing greens an inevitability. Rough can be thick with extremely long fescue in places and hitting a flyer a real risk if missing the fairway. Additional bunkering has also been added to several fairways, so a bomb and gouge strategy is not necessarily the sole path to victory.
I was able to ask Will Zalatoris about his thoughts on the course this year. He commented it will certainly play more difficult with those additional bunkers adding a challenge off the tee, keeping the ball in the fairway at a premium, and the higher winds expected. A winning score of the likes seen in 2021 and 2019 seems very unlikely, and something between 12-16 under seems realistic.
Weather
It looked for some time like a weather advantage may develop. However, as the week has gone on, it has become apparent that no significant edge to the draw seems to exist (although finding wind-positive players will be essential).
Thursday AM should provide some of the softest conditions of the week, with rain Wednesday along with the normal morning dew benefiting the early risers. Prevailing winds of 11-12mph and gusts between 15-18mph will be brisk enough. Thursday PM will see winds increase, as well as the ground drying out and becoming firmer as the day develops. Winds will peak at prevailing 16-21mph and gusts of 22-26mph.
Friday AM provides stiffer breezes than the previous day, forecast for prevailing winds of 14-18mph and gusts of 21-26mph. This will continue to increase throughout the day with Friday PM reaching some of the highest winds of the tournaments at 19-22mph prevailing and 28-33mph gusts. expect high winds to continue in the weekend.
There are positives and negatives to both sides of the draw. Thursday AM/Friday PM get softer, calmer conditions in round 1 only to be greeted by some of the most severe winds Friday afternoon. Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will avoid the worst winds on Friday afternoon. However, they have higher winds on both Thursday afternoon and on Friday morning, as well as not benefitting from any rain.
A draw bias may still develop in this changeable part of the world. The 2019 Scottish Open provides the best guidance, as the winds were not only higher that year but also from the prevailing westerly direction. 2021 and 2020 not only saw lower winds, but an atypical easterly wind.
https://www.windy.com/56.054/-2.808?55.704,-2.807,8,m:feAaf4u
Related Course Form
With links golf providing such a unique test of golf, and a challenge barely seen on the PGA Tour, I have provided some additional courses when considering correlating form.
– The Renaissance Club (particularly 2019)
– Ballyliffin Golf Club (links course, hosted 2018 Irish Open)
– Mount Juliet Estate (host of Irish Open 2022 and 2021)
– St Andrews Old Course and Kingsbarns Golf Links (rotate for the Alfred Dunhill Links and both traditional links courses)
– Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews (traditional links course, host of 2020 Scottish Championship and 2021 Hero Open)
– Yas Links (host of Abu Dhabi Championship, is always windy and exposed. Designed by Kyle Phillips who made Kingsbarns)
– Bernardus Golf (another Kyle Phillips design, host of the Dutch Open 2022 and 2021)
– Doha Golf Club (host of Qatar Masters 2022 and 1998-2019, strong correlation to performance on links tracks and always very windy)
– Verdura Golf Course (host of Sicilian Open, links style course along the coast and wind exposed and again designed by our friend Kyle Phillips)
– Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course (host of Portugal Masters, which has strong leaderboard form links to this course)
Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
– Tommy Fleetwood 2pts E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)
– Tyrrell Hatton 1pt E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)
– Tyrrell Hatton 2pts Top 10 $6.00 (various)
– Aaron Rai 1pt E/W $70.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)
– Aaron Rai 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (Bet365)
– Lucas Herbert 1pt E/W $80.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)
– Lucas Herbert 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365) and 2pts Top 20 $4.20 (Bet365)
– Gary Woodland 0.5pts E/W $90.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)
– Gary Woodland 2pts Top 10 $9.00 (various)
Player Profiles
Tommy Fleetwood
You may recall during my recent appearance on PGA Draftcast following Haotong Li, that part of his struggles came through COVID-19 and travel difficulties associated. Fleetwood, in many ways, has a similar story to tell.
Tommy was deeply affected by the travel restrictions and his game suffered as a result. A smattering of top 10s in 2020 and 2021 were a rarity with finishes of 30th or higher a far too frequent occurrence for the talented Englishman.
2022 has begun to see a return of form, with a 14th at The Masters and 5th at the windy PGA Championship beginning to suggest we may soon the best of Fleetwood once again on the biggest stages. Along with an elite short game, Fleetwood is 24th for par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards.
A proven wind player, the links form is exceptional. Most easily identifiable is the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with an impressive formline: 5-2-13-15-25-2-5-7. Complimenting this is a runner-up finish here in 2019, in perhaps the most comparable to conditions this week, as well as a 26th in 2021.
Tyrrell Hatton
I’ll start by saying that one of the few reasons we are able to obtain Hatton at this price is his approach play has been truly dreadful in the last three tournaments. That may make for unappealing reading, but it is a simple fact.
What I could not overlook was the longer-term stats, which are worthy of consideration here. Hatton is 25th for proximity this season for approaches over 200 yards, 4th for birdie or better percentage for 200+ yards, 42nd for SG: ATG and 5th for SG Putting this year.
A familiar look at links courses may be what he needs to return the ball-striking to his usual standards. Again, the links form is elite. Two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship his form in the last 5 tournaments reads: W-W-3-15-2. He holds finishes of 14th and 18th here and a 5th and 6th at The Open Championship.
Hatton’s best performances this year have also come in the wind. 6th at the Kyle Phillip’s designed Yas Links, he also finished 4th in Dubai, 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 13th at The Players Championship, and 13th at the PGA Championship all in windy conditions.
Aaron Rai
Those who follow my tips will know that last week I was extremely close to selecting Rai at the Irish Open. My only reason for fading was the sheer amount of travel and golf he had undergone in the week.
Rai competed in all 4 rounds at the Travelers Championship, and he jumped on a plane to Scotland for the Open Qualifiers, an enduring test of 36 holes in one day. He played extremely well, making a three-man playoff to decide the final three spots only for the other two to qualify. He then travelled to Ireland and would have experienced a disrupted lead into the tournament.
I suspected that, despite the excellent play, that Rai may fade from the workload involved in this exercise. He immediately started the 1st round with 6 birdies in 10 holes and was certainly doing his utmost to make me regret fading him. He eventually finished 9th in a strong showing, again going agonisingly close to securing one of the three Open Championship qualifying spots on offer.
Rai has always been regarded as an excellent ball-striker, but he does his best work with his long irons. He is 31st this season for proximity from 200+ yards and 31st for par-4 efficient between 450-500 yards.
The final three spots to The Open are on offer here. No doubt that Rai will have his eyes on one of them, at a tournament where he won in 2020 under the most similar conditions.
Lucas Herbert
Lucas Herbert was my first bet of the week upon market open. The 80s on offer having been quickly snapped up, although he is available at 70s in spots if you are willing to hunt for him.
As you know, I tipped Herbert a couple times earlier this year. In all instances, it is because he is arguably the best wind player in the world. His wins have come at a very windy Dubai Desert Classic, in 35mph winds at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and in the 2021 Irish Open.
This year, we saw a 7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he rose through the field shooting the lowest round of the day in the windiest conditions. He cashed a $15.00 Top 10 for us there and Herbert then duly cashed another ticket for us at juicy Top 30 odds of $9.50 at the PGA Championship, despite being on the wrong side of a decent weather draw. The only player better in the afternoon groups of the first round, when the worst of the wind was on offer, was Justin Thomas who beat Herbert by one stroke and eventually won the tournament.
Herbert has just finished 9th at the Irish Open last week for a rebound in form and has 2 x consecutive 4th placed finishes at the Scottish Open for 2021 and 2020. In other correlating form, he has a 3rd from one appearance at the Sicilian Open and a 9th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
Herbert makes his shots with the short-game, where he sits 15th for SG: ATG and 2nd SG: Putting this season. I appreciate that punters are often, and correctly, cautious of short-game statistics driving performance given how volatile these metrics can be. But Herbert is elite in these areas of the game and can be trusted in all elements around the green, especially on a windy course where this will be vital.
Basically: the best wind player in the world, excellent course history, a top 10 last week, an elite short-game, and he is 80/1. We are on.
Gary Woodland
Finally, I will wrap up this week’s headliners with a speculative play on Gary Woodland.
The 2019 US Open Champion arrives in Scotland following an excellent showing at a tough US Open, where he finished 10th at The Country Club in Brookline. Links form is hard to come by for the majority of USA based players, but Woodland does have the benefit of having made the cut at 7/10 Open Championships to at least suggest he is not averse to these conditions.
Some of Woodland’s best performance this year have come in the wind. Notably a 5th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (denying us a 70/1 winner with a double-bogey, bogey finish), and 8th at a windy Valero Texas Open.
Woodland is long and straight off the tee, but also has excellent control of his ball-flight and the ability to keep the ball low with his signature stingers shots will suit the wind and firm conditions on offer here. Sitting 14th for proximity from 200+ yards, 11th for par-4 efficiency 450-500 yards, and 15th for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards all point to a strong debut at this course.
