DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
In an eventful week for golf in what has been an eventful year, the PGA Tour moves from the regular season to our final event with a cutline in the 2021-2022 season. The FedEx Cup playoffs is now a truncated three tournament race to further increased purses and the field is obviously stacked.
Another week at the Wyndham Championship where he had the leader throughout the first few rounds, before we wound up with the runner-up. In this case, we had Sungjae Im at 16/1 and John Huh on the card. At 175/1, the Huh place money was actually better odds than those available on Tom Kim for a historic and decisive victory.
Three consecutive weeks with our picks firmly in contention, it is only a matter of time for one of our golfers to convert for our 10th outright in 2022. Who should you bet for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather predictions, and golf betting tips.
Course Analysis
It is worth noting immediately that although TPC Southwind has featured on the PGA Tour since 1989, the name of the tournament has changed over the years. It is best to view history for the course rather than tournament name and also noting the event featured significantly more difficult fields when it became a WGC event in 2019. This will be the first iteration as the opening event of the play-offs and it remains to be seen how the course superintendents intend to prepare the course.
The course is a long 7,243 yards par-70 when, for perspective, we would regard 7,400 a fairly average length for a par-72. Fairways are on the narrow side and water features in abundance on the course. Rough is 2.5in bermudagrass which sounds short but we only need to look to last week to remember bermuda is more penal than other varietals and will produce flyers.
Greens feature bermudagrass and are extremely small at just 4,300 sq ft on average. With smaller greens, less reliance on putting statistics and a bump in around the green preference is obvious. A short look at those with course history tells us ball-striking, particularly approach and driving accuracy, is the key to success. Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Aaron Rai are excellent iron players and give a flavour to the ideal profile.
Relatively unique to TPC Southwind is the zoysiagrass fairways. This rare and sturdy grass is used infrequently and typically only in drier climes as it requires less water. Being a stronger grass it does have some unique characteristics. Golfers have commented that balls can sometimes be “teed” up, and other times settle down a little to produce surprise flyers. A winning score is likely to be in the -12 to -15 range.
Comp Courses
The only other regular tour events with zoysia are TPC Craig Ranch (2021 and 2022 host of AT&T Byron Nelson) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship host). Bellerive Country Club, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, also features zoysia fairways. It is worth noting Brooks Koepka won both that event and the 2019 FedEx St Jude Invitational here. A shame he couldn’t be here this week.
Weather Forecast
The lead in to this event has seen a lack of rain in the past few months with July one of the hottest on record. The course was likely to play extremely firm and fast. Golfers will be grateful that today (Wednesday) the course has received a decent amount of rain. More rain (albeit light drizzle) is expected Thursday.
Winds are expected to be light all week, with single digit prevailing winds and gusts only in the teens. There does not appear to be any weather draw to play.
Thursday morning may provide the softest conditions following Wednesday’s rain, it is not predicted to be a significant enough edge to play.
https://www.windy.com/35.054/-89.779?34.981,-81.969,6,m:eDAadFx
FedEx St Jude Championship Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
– Will Zalatoris 2pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.25 (Bet365)
– Collin Morikawa 2pt E/W $34.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.50 (Bet365)
– Russell Henley 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– 1pt Top 20 $3.30 (TAB)
– Corey Conners 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)
– Aaron Wise 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.60 (Bet365)
– Scott Stallings 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365 10 places 1/7 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)
– Troy Merritt 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $13.00 (TAB)
– 2pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)
– Tom Hoge 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)
– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 40 $3.75 (TAB)
Player Profiles
Will Zalatoris
Elite ball-striking with less emphasis on putting screams Zalatoris. Gaining on approach in 17/18 strokeplay tournaments this year is obvious for even the casual fan. There are a few other indicators that jump out for me this week.
Zalatoris typically loses a little for driving accuracy on the field. He has gained on the field in his last two events and improved his approach play concurrently, suggesting positive improvements in his ball-striking. Rightly his putting has been regarded has his weakest aspect. However, this year he has gained multiple strokes putting at all US based majors this year suggesting that when the pressure is on he can lift his game. Anything above field average putting should see Zalatoris in the top 10.
Performances of 20th and 21st over the last two weeks in weaker fields is a positive for me. Neither of those courses are necessarily the best fits for him, and to see him still playing well in mediocre PGA Tour events suggests a peak for playoffs is on the cards. Especially at an event he finished 8th in last year when returning from injury and not at 100%.
Finally, Zalatoris fired his caddy mid-tournament last week. We often see a change in a player’s team result in immediate results. His caddy is his short-game coach Josh Gregory, and I can think of no one better to be on the bag. Zalatoris spoke of the benefit having Josh assist with reading putts and may just be what is needed for a win this week.
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa arrives off the back of two missed cuts and may fly under the radar this week. I immediately note that this was at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, with unique bunkering and greens meaning this poses little concern to me. I rather focus on the fact he remains one of the best iron players on Tour, gaining over 5 strokes on approach when last sighted.
His most recent performance in mainland USA was a 5th at the US Open, which is complimented by a 5th at The Masters as well. We know Morikawa can lift for these big events and the fundamentals of his game are solid for this test with long accurate driving and precise irons.
We have previously seen him play well at end of the year, winning the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2021 to claim both the title and the Race to Dubai.
He also held a 10th there in 2020 and a 6th in 2020 at the Tour Championship, which features zoysiagrass fairways, in his first full year on tour. Morikawa will be acutely aware this is first year he has not had a win by this point. Motivation will be plentiful and a strong performance would not surprise to boost his current 22nd position on the FedEx Cup rankings.
Russell Henley
Another who profiles perfectly for TPC Southwind, Henley arrives off the back of a 10th and 5th place finish. He has hit his straps in both approach and driving accuracy, leading the field last week in approach suggesting he is peaking at the perfect time.
Henley has a 12th and 3rd in his two Tour Championship appearances on the zoysia fairways of East Lake to compliment a 7th here. Henley has a history of playing well in the first playoff event, having been first-round leader at the 2020 and 2017 Northern Trust. The question with Henley is always the putter. Noting 2/3 of his victories have come on bermudagrass provides some positive guidance, as does the Honda Classic win on a water filled course where accuracy is paramount.
Corey Conners
Sitting 29th on the FedEx Cup standings, Conners will be focused on two strong performances to ensure he makes the Tour Championship field.
A similar profile to Morikawa, Conners consistently gains on the field for driving accuracy and approach which is the precise metrics we are focused on this week. Where he lacks his the putting and around the green, but it is worth noting he has a tendency to perform better on smaller greens.
A notable example would be Harbour Town, where he form of 21-4-12 in his last three appearances. Providing an opportunity to shake off the cobwebs, the 21st last week was his first appearance in 3 weeks for a golfer where I have a fair price of 55/1.
Aaron Wise
Another who has a positive expected value in my models, the renowned iron play of Wise holds appeal on a course which should suit.
Although his first appearance on this track, Wise has a history of playing well in the opening playoff event with three made cuts from three attempts including a 5th. In his first tune up in three weeks, Wise managed a 13th at the Wyndham Championship despite not having his best week on approach. Where he did gain was on driving accuracy and putting, so any regression to his above average approach play will hold appeal here.
Scott Stallings
Entering in excellent form, Stallings arrives with 4 consecutive top 13 finishes. He is on offer at triple figures despite this, on a track he has excellent history. Stallings has 6/8 made cuts here, including a runner up. He enters in much better form than the majority of those instances, with the majority coming off missed cuts and finishes worse than 40th place.
Stallings has now gained on approach in 5 consecutive events and seen a spike in his driving accuracy for his last three weeks. The ball-striking has been excellent, and he arrives to a course he has gained on and around the greens on multiple occasions. Zoysiagrass form also adds to the credentials, with 25th and 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch in both the PGA Tour events held there thus far.
Troy Merritt
Sitting 62nd in the FedEx Cup rankings, Troy Merritt needs a good week here to ensure he can continue in the playoffs. He arrives here having gained multiple strokes on approach for three consecutive weeks and a big spike in driving accuracy.
Merritt has volatility with the putter, which is a positive. It provides upside at these odds, as the ability to spike with the putter when combined with the ball-striking suggest a serious run at the top is possible. The opportunity comes at a track where he has already finished 12th and 2nd, complimented by a 7th at TPC Craig Ranch this year.
Tom Hoge
Although the 160s I got on Hoge on opening are no longer available, he is highlighted here for transparency. He may still be available for Top 20 opportunities as well as a lower DFS play.
Hoge led the field in approach on last appearance when gaining more than 10 strokes on the field with his irons. He has now gained for three consecutive weeks on approach, and 4/5 for driving accuracy. He holds a best finish of 12th here and finished with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch this year. With an inaugural victory coming at Pebble Beach, as well as a return of his excellent approach play, this event may come at the perfect time for him.
Trey Mullinax
Finally, a speculative play on Mullinax seems in order. Mullinax won just 4 weeks ago and has now gained on approach in three consecutive weeks. He returns to a course where he has finished 6th and 18th in bigger (albeit weaker) fields. Both of those finishes came after a string of missed cuts, so arriving here in much better form holds sufficient appeal at big odds.
