DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Barely three months have passed since we witnessed a recently anointed World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler dominate as he pulled on a green jacket. Since then, we’ve seen Justin Thomas secure his second Major after a five-year wait despite threatening regularly. Matthew Fitzpatrick secured an equally elusive first.
And we are here, at the spiritual home of golf. The Old Course at St Andrews. Winning this tournament, on this course, is undoubtedly the cornerstone in the cabinet for the legends of the game. I refuse to call it the British Open (despite it drawing more clicks online). This is the 150th edition of The Open Championship. Bite me algorithm.
Because here, of all places, legacy and history matters more than most. The Old Course only hosts The Open Championship on a 5-year (or so) rotation, so the opportunities to secure such a win are few and far between. Most golfers will only have 2-3 chances in their career to do so. And what we will get to witness over the next 4 days will determine the way we will remember many of this current crop of stars. One will triumph, some will come agonisingly close, and most will relish the fortune of simply crossing the Swilcan Bridge.
Who should you bet at The Open Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive, course analysis, and your 150th Open golf betting tips.
Scottish Open Recap
A mildly successful week at the Scottish Open for our tips last week, although it did perhaps promise more than what it eventually delivered. 90/1 Gary Woodland sat in sole 2nd after the first round, with 800/1 tip and Scottish local Ewen Ferguson in 7th.
Midway through the second round, 4 of our tips were tied 4th or better. Woodland continued to hold 2nd place on his own after the end of the round, with 55/1 Hatton sitting 8th. Perhaps most disappointingly, Lucas Herbert went from contending for the lead to missing the cut on the number in perhaps the most frustrating result of the tournament.
Invariably the majority found ways to fade in tricky, windy conditions over the weekend. Fortunately, Fleetwood overcame a poor first round and charged through the field as one of just two players to shoot under par for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. So we cashed 2pts on a full place pay-out at equivalent odds of $12.25, and left to rue what could have been a third outright winner in as many weeks.
Course Analysis
As one of the most iconic courses in all of golf, less perhaps need to be said on this occasion than in others. The Old Course, however, does contain several idiosyncrasies that are worthy of consideration when approaching this week.
A traditional links design sees 9 holes heading out from the golf course and 9 holes returning. This sees multiple shared fairways, with little rough to speak of in many cases. You will often hear it touted that a left miss is ok as a result where you invariably end up in the other fairway, even if a bit further from the hole.
Huge, shared greens are also a feature with only 1, 9, 17, 18 having stand-alone greens. The valleys, swales, and subtleties of these relatively slow greens can catch the best of putters out. Facing an extremely long putt with several breaks can be expected for all golfers at some stage of the tournament.
The course itself is relatively short for the modern game, playing as a 7,313 yards par-72 and rather uniquely featuring only two par 5s and two par 3s. Of the 14 par-4s, at least 4 provide a very realistic prospect of being driven by the longer drivers.
The only defence the course offers is any wind and the course’s infamous bunkers. 112 of them protect the course with perhaps the most notorious of them being the deep 17th Road Hole bunker and the Hell bunker on the 14th. Finding any of these bunkers consistently result in a dropped stroke as punishment, and that is assuming you can make your way above the revetted bunker faces at all.
https://golf.com/news/tournaments/surviving-st-andrews-all-about-avoiding-bunkers/
Weather
As mentioned, the Scottish weather and wind is one of the few defences that can protect St. Andrews. Unfortunately, this week appears to offer neither in sufficient amounts to prevent what could turn into somewhat of a birdie-fest.
It is worth noting that there has been extremely little rainfall in Scotland of late and the fairways are extremely firm and fast. You can expect some volatility on shots, which could be liable to the luck of the bounce, and the course may play differently to previous renditions.
Per tradition, all players will tee off the 1st hole resulting in no clear waves as such. The long Scottish summer hours means 9 and a half hours between first to last tee-time is possible, meaning considering where your players will play their rounds will require some calculating.
Thursday AM: Winds 8-10mph prevailing, with 14-15mph gusts. Small chance of showers mid-morning to midday.
Thursday PM: Winds 10-12mph prevailing, with 20-25mph gusts.
Friday AM: Winds 7-10mph prevailing, gusts 13-18mph. Light rain is likely all morning.
Friday PM: Winds 10mph prevailing, gusts of 18-23mph, but decreasing as the evening continues.
The weekend should see even lower winds and a score in the vicinity of 20 under or lower could threaten.
https://www.windy.com/56.352/-2.816?56.006,-2.818,8,m:fe4af4t
150th Open Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
It is worth noting that I hold tickets placed over the last month on Spieth at 26/1, Schauffele 29/1, and Ryan Fox at 150/1 which I mentioned in our exclusive Discord chat. Those prices are long gone by time of writing, and I can’t justify advocating for the current odds offered. However, if you like these players, then you can back them or play them in your DFS line-ups with confidence.
- Shane Lowry 2pts E/W $26.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Tommy Fleetwood 2pts E/W $34.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Joaquin Niemann 2pts E/W $56.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Adam Scott 0.25pt E/W $126.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365 Bet Boost)
- Adam Scott 2pt Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)
- Aaron Wise 0.25pt E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Aaron Wise 2pt Top 20 $5.00 (William Hill)
- Haotong Li 0.25pt E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Haotong Li 2pt Top 20 $5.50 (10bet)
- Jordan Smith 0.25pt E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Jordan Smith 2pt Top 20 $5.50 (10bet)
- Dean Burmester 0.25pt E/W $251.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds, Bet365)
- Dean Burmester 2pt Top 20 $7.50 (10bet)
Player Profiles
Shane Lowry
The 2019 Open Champion arrives here in the best form of his career, arguably better than that previous victory. With 13 stroke play starts in 2022, he holds a record of 11 finishes of 24th or better with a 32nd and just one missed cut. 19 of his 21 rounds played at St Andrews during the Alfred Dunhill Links have been under par. 3rd at the Masters this year a welcome link to the parallels we do see between Augusta National leaderboards and here.
Over the last 6 months in this field, Lowry is 6th for SG: TOTAL, 5th for SG: T2G, 19th for SG: OTT, 11th for SG: APP, and 7th for SG: ATG. Undoubtedly possessing the ability to pop with the putter, he is also 14th for approach putt performance and 38th for 3-putt avoidance which bodes well on the large greens here. Really possess the complete package but, somehow, he seems to still be flying under the radar.
Tommy Fleetwood
I am happy to go again on Fleetwood after he delivered us a 4th place last week at the Scottish Open. Now plying his trade on the PGA Tour, he clearly appreciated the return to Europe where he is perhaps more comfortable.
Having endured somewhat of a slump through COVID, where he openly struggled with being distanced from friends and family, he seems to now be finding his best again with 5th at the PGA Championship and 14th at The Masters. 21 of his 22 rounds at the Old Course have been under par
Joaquin Niemann
The highly talented 23-year-old Chilean displayed what I had expected when appearing for 16th at the Scottish Open last week; links golf should suit his game. Niemann tends to have a low ball-flight, which is perfect when keeping the ball out of the wind and gathering roll towards the green is imperative. His creative and ability to shape the ball were most notably on display at the Genesis Invitiational and should serve him well here.
Ranking 7th of SG: OTT and 8th for SG: TOTAL over the last 6 months, with driving to be an important asset this week and being essentially 8th best in the field offers a lot of value at these odds. Would be the first South American golfer to win The Open since 1967 and what a place to do it at the home of golf.
Adam Scott
The classy Aussie would undoubtedly be near universally well-received were he to triumph here. Scott was well in contention in the 2015 hosted at the Old Course, eventually finishing 10th. He was 5 strokes back of the eventual winner Zach Johnson, having played his last 5 holes in +5.
Experiencing a recent resurgence in form, Scott is having an excellent year including 4th at the Genesis Invitational (where he won in 2020), 9th and 10th at Rolex Series events in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, 9th at the Matchplay, and 14th in his most recent start at the US Open. Scott has gained 8.68 and 4.88 strokes on approach in his last two appearances, the latter being at the US Open, suggesting his ball-striking is right where it needs to be. Combined with his adept short game and still hitting the ball plenty far off the tee, I see plenty of appeal at triple figure odds.
Aaron Wise
Another quietly putting together an excellent year, the talented 26-year-old is still on the rise and I am happy to speculate that we are yet to find his ceiling. With 8/10 tournaments gaining strokes on approach, typically 4 strokes or more, Wise has also produced 12/12 for SG: OTT typically gaining not just in distance but also accuracy.
Able to spike with the putter, most notably when 2nd recently at The Memorial and 23rd at the PGA Championship. I envision a scenario where he can go on a hot streak for backers here, with close iron play and plenty of birdie putts to drain. He made the cut when finishing 41st in his sole Open Championship appearance in 2019 and is a much more accomplished golfer now, arriving off finishes of 23rd and 27th at the last two majors.
Haotong Li
Haotong delivered us a fantastic victory at the BMW International Open, when we were on at 65/1.
His 55th placed finish at the Scottish Open last week should be considered with some context. First, it was not necessarily the best setup for him in the wind. Haotong can spray it off the tee and the narrow fairways with thick penal rough at The Renaissance was always going to be a challenge with the weather. Second, he still gained a massive 8.52 SG: APP last week.
This will be a volatile play, but much of that comes with his ability to get extremely hot with his putter. We have seen him gain strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 and his game seems very much on song once again. Finished 3rd in his debut at the Open Championship and has shot an 8 under 64 at St Andrews during the Alfred Dunhill Links where he has finishes of 6th, 23rd, and 14th.
Jordan Smith
Talented Englishman who is highly regarded on the DP World Tour for his ball striking. Smith, Jordan variety, ranks 5th for SG: OTT in this field over the last 6 months gaining for both distance and accuracy.
With a best finish of 5th at the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2019, in the 6 rounds at the Old Course he has never shot over par. He arrives here after 7 consecutive finishes of 24th or better and 12/14 finishes of 24th or better for the year. Should be arriving in a great mood having won a car for both his caddy and himself last week.
Dean Burmester
The extremely long hitting South African is high risk, high reward which is exactly what we want for odds of 250/1. That seems an awfully long price for a player ranked 82nd in the world. I like that Burmester has been seen with both a 1-iron and 2-iron in the bag this week alongside the driver, as he is clearly approaching the course with a clear plan how he will manage his way around. Surprisingly adept around the greens, ranking 29th for SG: ATG in this field for last 6 months.
Burmester has played plenty of links golf and could join a long list of South Africans who have played well on this style of course. He finished an admirable 10th last week at the Scottish Open on a course that didn’t necessarily play to his strengths. Most notably, he was a 7th in last year’s Alfred Dunhill Links and, with his last 4 rounds at the Old Course at St Andrews totaling 19 under, there is every chance he could surprise at long odds.
