DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
If you haven’t already, head over here to get your full golf deep dive including course analysis and weather forecasts:
https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-course-analysis-and-weather-deep-dive/?ref=31
Suggested Staking
Headliners
- Jordan Spieth 1pt E/W $29.00 (bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Jordan Spieth 2pt Top 10 $3.50 (bet365)
- Cameron Young 1pt E/W $41.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Cameron Young 2pt Top 20 $2.70 (bet365)
- Max Homa 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Max Homa 2pt Top 20 $2.75 (TAB)
- Daniel Berger 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Daniel Berger 2pt Top 20 $3.00 (bet365)
- Aaron Wise 1pt E/W $76.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Aaron Wise 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (bet365)
Long-Shots
- Sebastian Munoz 0.25pt E/W $151.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Sebastian Munoz 1.5pt Top 20 $5.00 (bet365)
- Brian Harman 0.25pt E/W $176.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Brian Harman 1.5pt Top 20 $6.00 (bet365)
- Ryan Fox 0.25pt E/W $201.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Ryan Fox 1.5pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)
- Lucas Herbert 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Lucas Herbert 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)
- Francesco Molinari 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
- Francesco Molinari 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (bet365)
Player Profiles: Headliners
Jordan Spieth
I have been deliberately fading Jordan Spieth of late given his well-documented putting woes these past 6 months. The fact is we know that Spieth can putt, with multiple years where he has gained substantial strokes putting, and he has been one of the best on tour of late for SG: tee-to-green sitting 4th in that metric for this field over the last 3 months. He even managed a win at Harbour Town despite losing strokes putting, which is basically unheard of on tour.
We have finally seen the putter spark back to life, gaining strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 tournaments, in what was the only piece to the puzzle needed to re-enter the elite conversation. The other metrics mesh perfectly over the last 3 months: 13th SG: OTT, 26th SG: App, and 2nd SG: ATG. On that last stat he has gained strokes around the green in his last 7 appearances and, given the expected weather and small putting surfaces, his ability to get up and down holds extra appeal this week.
Spieth major record speaks for itself, his multiple major wins including the 2015 US Open (with Chambers Bay being somewhat analogous to The Country Club) and the 2017 Open Championship (where he also holds multiple top 10s and has never missed a cut). Alongside that recent win at the RBC Heritage, he also holds an excellent record at Pebble Beach with a win there as well as 2nd and 3rd place finishes in his two most recent appearances. What that is worth remains to be seen but having performed well at other venues with microscopic greens is hardly a negative.
I’m happy to beat the curve somewhat on Spieth, who rates out 7th on an odds board where he ranks better or on par in my models than several of the shorter priced golfers. I have a fair price at 18s in my models, so the 29s ranks as a steal that I am willing to jump on.
Cameron Young
The 51s on open have quickly been snapped up for Cameron Young, but with bet365 offering 8 places this week we are still seeing value at the current mark of 41s.
Perhaps best known for his ability with the driver Young is straight and long off the tee, which is always a recipe for success in US Opens. He is the 7th longest on tour for driving distance and is 2nd for SG: OTT over the last 3 months. That distance comes of benefit in his irons as well, ranking 27th this season in approach proximity for shots over 200 yards.
Where Spieth ranks 2nd in this field for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, Cameron Young sits 1st. Finding a golfer who is so prolific off the tee but also has that level of touch around the greens is beyond rare; Young is the real deal.
Young has already demonstrated this season that his skills are transitory across a wide range of golf courses. A 2nd at the traditional tough Genesis Invitational, 13th at a windy Arnold Palmer Invitational, 3rd at the shorter RBC Heritage, 2nd in the narrow and high scoring Wells Fargo Championship, and 3rd in the most recent major at the PGA Championship played on the long Southern Hills. He will be better for that appearance, when he arguably should have won, and it is only a matter of time before the 25-year-old secures a breakthrough victory.
Max Homa
Another whose distance and accuracy off the tee holds appeal, Homa enters this major on a run of 9 consecutive events gaining strokes with the driver and 11 straight events gaining strokes on approach. Combine that with gaining multiple strokes putting over his last 4 events, and 2 of his 4 PGA Tour victories coming on similar greens, and it is easy to build a case for the winner of two events this season.
Of those victories, the win at the tough Wells Fargo holds the most appeal coming on a narrow and tough track where weather was also a factor, complimented by a victory in 2021 at the tough Genesis Invitational. Rankings over the last 3 months of 19th SG: T2G, 18th SG: OTT, 10th SG: APP, and 22nd SG: PUTT suggest a well-rounded golfer ready to make the step to the next level.
If there is a chink in the armour, it is his around the green game where he sits middle of the pack in this field over the last 3 months. However, having gained strokes around the green in 5 of his last 8 strokeplay events suggests this is passable if complimented by the elite ball-striking we have seen from Homa this year.
Arriving off a 5th at Memorial, in one of the toughest fields of the year, and a best major finish of 13th at the PGA Championship, Homa arrives in excellent form to pursue a career-defining victory.
Daniel Berger
Having suffered a back sprain earlier in the year, reading Berger’s profile requires a longer-term view to gain a true reflection of his ability. When we do, we find a player who over the last 12 months has ranked at 7th for SG: T2G, 5th for SG: APP, and 24th for SG: ATG. Over the last 2 years, he also measures 32nd for SG: OTT (gained on field in last 4 events) and 30th for SG: PUTT (gained 6.8 strokes when 5th last time out at Memorial) provides a complete, well-rounded profile that can compete with the best on his day.
The missed cut at the PGA Championship should be read in the context of his first appearance from 5 weeks off, where he still managed to gain strokes off-the-tee, and followed most recently by top performances in high class fields suggesting the back should no longer be of any concern. Some of Berger’s best major performances have come of late, with a 7th in the 2021 US Open and 8th in the 2021 Open Championship bettered only by a 6th at the 2018 US Open (where Shinnecock Hills is again at least somewhat analogous to here). A victory at Pebble Beach in 2021 followed a 5th place finish there in 2020, and recent form at Harbour Town of 3-13-21 suggesting these smaller targets seem to suit the eye.
Aaron Wise
At the Memorial Tournament, I went back and forth between Wise and Kirk for my final tip. Kirk received favouritism, and Wise duly popped up for a 2nd place finish where he gained a massive 8.48 strokes on approach to the field.
Wise sits 6th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months, 16th for SG:T2G, has gained strokes off-the-tee in 10 out of 11 tournaments (losing just 0.40 strokes at the Mexico Open), gained strokes ATG in 6 of 9 recent appearances, and has gained 4.84 and 5.24 strokes putting in his last two outings.
Despite not holding a glittering major record, Wise has made his last 6 major cuts with results of 17-41-35-41-17-23. These all came at a time where we were not seeing the same metric profile we find here, as the 25-year-old enters this tournament in the best form of his short career.
For 76s, we are getting a lot of value for a player who should be priced at 60s based on my models.
Player Profiles: Long-Shots
Sebastian Munoz
Gained stokes both OTT and APP in 10/12 of his most recent tournaments, stroked putting in 6/7 tournaments and has been at or above field average for SG: ATG in his last 10 appearances.
Sat 2nd when entering the final round of The Players Championship before fading Sunday, a challenging tournament played in windy conditions and demanding elite ball striking. 36th entering final round at PGA Championship before following a similar pattern, the more he gives himself opportunities in these big events the better.
A surprise top 20 is certainly on the cards, and at 150s for the wins should be at shorter odds for the 54th best player in the world according to OWGR.
Ryan Fox
One of two golfers where I’ve foregone the preferred Thursday AM/Friday PM wave. Fox ranks out 4th in this field over the last 3 months for weighted SG: APP. On the DP World Tour this season, he is 4th SG: APP, 4th SG: T2G, and 10th for putts per GIR.
Recent form of W-15-9-8-2-54-2 and, although majority of results were at the lower level of the DP World Tour, the 54th at the recent PGA Championship was where he sat 17th when entering the final round. Best major performances have come at The Open Championship, with 4/5 made cuts and a 16th in 2019.
Well known for his prolific distance off the tee we have seen him play well this year at a variety of courses, including the Soudal Open which was a tight and narrow test. Fox likes to club down and hit a 2 iron off the tee, as he did there, and it should also be noted that his 9th at the Catalunya Championship was unfortunately hampered by that same club suffering a fracture to the shaft limiting his options off the tee. That ability to club down off the tee for accuracy, as well as confidence with his long irons generally, all should be of benefit at this links-like test.
Brian Harman
Harman quietly holds excellent US Open form, with recent outings of 2-36-38-19 all coming at longer tests than he finds this week.
Highly accurate off the tee, Harman is 18th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months and has hit a good run of putting lately ranking 29th for SG: PUTT over the last 3 months.
Lucas Herbert
My other golfer on the other side of the weather draw, I always play Herbert in questionable and windy conditions.
All three of his victories have come in windy conditions, with a PGA Tour win at the October 2021 Bermuda Championship as well as high profile DP World Tour wins at the 2021 Irish Open and the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic.
Herbert possesses an excellent short-game which should hold him in a test that will demand scrambling from even the best ball strikers. Herbert ranks our 6th for SG: PUTT and 25th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, and these metrics follow on a longer 12 months forecast with rankings of 4th and 39th respectively.
The Australian was 31st at his last US Open appearance in 2020 and arrives here a better player. Coming off his best major finish of 13th at the recent PGA Championship, when we were on at 300/1. Hebert was the 2nd lowest round of the afternoon players at that tournament, one stroke behind Justin Thomas, in a big weather draw. He entered the final round in 10th, was just one shot off the lead midway through the final round before eventually finishing in 13th. Cashed some overpriced Top 30 tickets for us that week at $9.50 and another top finish is certainly possible for the young Australian.
Francesco Molinari
Although perhaps regarded as past his prime, Molinari is another who holds a quietly impressive US Open record with most recent finishes of 25-16-13. Complimented by a 2018 Open Championship major victory and followed by 11th in 2019, all suggest a golfer who can still mix with the best at the top of the leader boards in these tougher tests.
Gained strokes on approach in 5 of 7 most recent tournaments, 27th in this field for SG: ATG and gained on the field ATG in 6 of his last 9 appearances. Recent finishes of 17th, 55th at a PGA Championship which was far too long a course for him, and a respectable 26th at the strong field seen at The Memorial Tournament. Could surprise at massive odds.
