Ivan Herrera 
It is time to head back to college and enjoy a great day of College Football.
Welcome to the CFB SemiFinals! We have hit my favorite part of the CFB season, the bowl games. With teams fighting for conference bragging rights, we should see some great matchups. The highlight of Semifinal Saturday is the two Semifinal games; Michigan vs TCU and Georgia vs Ohio State.
Saturday 12/31 CFB
12/31 CFB Top Plays
Iowa vs Kentucky (TransPerfect Music City Bowl)
Fade this game. Both teams have a top 10 pass defense and both have a rushing offense ranked bottom 25. I’ll sleep fine if I fade the game and both teams put up crazy numbers because nothing points to that. But I will say if you are running a lot of lineups and you need to have a player from this game, Barion Brown and Dane Key are the only two I would even consider.
#5 Alabama vs #9 Kansas State (Allstate Sugar Bowl)
This matchup has all the makings of a game great game. The advantage through the air belongs to Alabama which is led by 2021 Heisman winner Bryce Young. A few of his targets have decided to opt out or enter the transfer portal. Even with the missing targets, Young has plenty of weapons to target like Cameron Latu, Ja’Corey Brooks, and Jermaine Burton. On the Kansas State side, there are some questions about who will start at QB. If Adrian Martinez starts I think KState will have a better chance of getting past Alabama because of his running ability. The good news for whoever starts at QB for KState is that they will have the best two targets on the team healthy. Knowles left the Big 12 title game with an injury, but all reports say he is available for Saturday.
The running game is much closer between these two than the passing game. Both teams are top 30 rushing teams who average over 195 yards and 2 scores on the ground per game. The main rushing target for Alabama is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs this season took over the Tide backfield. In his 11 appearances, Gibbs has averaged 86.9 total yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game. The matchup against KState isn’t the easiest for Gibbs, but the Wildcats allow just under 150 yards and over a game down on the ground per game. On the other sideline is KState’s starting back, Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn has had a successful season averaging just under 110 rushing yards a game. The matchup against Alabama is going to be tough, but if the Tide have a weakness is their run defense. They allow 125 yards and a score per game.
Sugar Bowl Top Plays:
Alabama: Bryce Young $8,500DK/$10,600FD. Jahmyr Gibbs $7,700DK/$9,200. Cameron Latu $4,900DK/$5,300FD. Jermaine Burton $5,700DK/$7,000FD. Ja’Corey Brooks $6,100DK/$7,400FD.
KState: Adrian Martinez $5,800DK/$8,400FD (If he plays). Deuce Vaughn $7,000DK/$8,800FD. Malik Knowles $5,900DK/$6,600FD. Phillip Brooks $5,100DK/$5,600FD. Kade Warner $4,300DK/$5,800FD.
#2 Michigan vs #3 TCU CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
The first semifinal of the slate is Michigan taking on TCU. This matchup will be another example of a high power offense taking on a stellar defense, as TCU’s 14th ranked offense takes on Michigan’s 3rd ranked defense.
We’ll start by looking at both teams’ passing games. The advantage has to go to TCU’s Max Duggan who has impressed all season with both his arm and legs. Duggan ranks in the top 20 in passing yards, touchdowns, and efficiency. The matchup against Michigan’s defense is going to be his toughest challenge of the season, but he proved earlier in the year he can still find success against a top defense when he threw for 212 and three touchdowns against the 5th ranked Iowa State defense. On the other sideline is JJ McCarthy who has impressed since Michigan lost Corum against Illinois. In the two matchups, including the one against fellow CFP semifinalist OSU, McCarthy threw for 424 yards, six touchdowns, and only threw one interception. Duggan is the better of the two, but if you need the salary McCarthy is a solid option.
On the rushing side, the advantage is solely on the Michigan side. In the two games, Donovan Edwards was the main RB, he ran for 401 yards and three touchdowns. The TCU rush defense he’s going up against on Saturday is beatable, they give up 149.5 rushing yards a game and have allowed a total of 21 rushing touchdowns. Michigan has the most rushing touchdown (38) on the slate, so I can see them leaning on the ground game to set the tempo. On the TCU side, they have a strong running game that is ranked 25th in the nation with 200 yards a game. They are led by Kendre Miller who has 1,343 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground this season. On any other slate Miller would be a great play, but this weekend he has to run on the 3rd best rush defense in the country.
Fiesta Bowl Top Plays:
Michigan: JJ McCarthy $5,900DK/$9,000FD. Donovan Edwards $6,600DK/$10,000FD. Cornelius Johnson $4,800DK/$6,700FD. Luke Schoonmaker $4,200DK/$5,500FD.
TCU: Max Duggan $7,900DK/$9,500FD. Quentin Johnston $6,500DK/$7,800FD. Derius Davis $5,600DK/$6,000FD. Kendre Miller $6,800DK/$8,000FD.
#1 Georgia vs #4 Ohio State CFP at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
The 2nd CFP semifinal and the last game of the slate is defending champions Georgia taking on Ohio State. This is the matchup with the most well rounded teams as both teams rank top 15 in total offense and defense.
To me, there is a clear favorite in the QB matchup and that is CJ Stroud. The thing that separates the two QBs is the targets that Ohio State has put around Stroud. Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka have a combined 138 catches, 2196 yards, and 21 receiving touchdowns. After the two main targets, Stroud has Fleming and TE Stover who have 64 combined catches and 11 touchdowns. The Georgia pass defense is strong, but if there is one way to attack them is through the air, and Stroud and his weapons can certainly do that. Stetson Bennett on Georgia is no slouch as he led Georgia to an undefeated season after last year’s championship win. Bennett might be without top WR McConkey, but he will still have Brock Bowers who has torn apart teams from the TE spot.
On the ground, I’ll give Georgia the advantage. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards have led the Bulldog backfield to success. Both RBs have over 650 yards and have scored at least 7 touchdowns each. We saw in the Michigan/Ohio State game that the Buckeyes do have some issues with strong running games. Ohio State themselves have a strong running game with Williams and Henderson, but they struggled against Iowa and Michigan. Iowa is ranked 13th and Michigan is 3rd which would explain their struggles, but Georgia is ranked 1st allowing only 77 a game. It’s hard to see either RB having much success.
Peach Bowl Top Plays:
Georgia: Stentson Bennett $7,500DK/$9,800FD. Kenny McIntosh $6,300DK/$7,800FD. Brock Bowers $6,300DK/$8,000FD. Adonai Mitchell $4,300DK/$5,500FD. Ladd McConkey $6,000DK/$7,200FD *If he plays*
Ohio State: CJ Stroud $8,200DK/$10,300FD. Marvin Harrison Jr $8,100DK/$9,100FD. Emeka Egubka $7,500DK/$8,800FD. Cade Stover $5,000DK/$5,400FD. Miyan Williams $7,300DK/$7,500FD.
Favorite Bets
Iowa vs Kentucky: Under 31 (-110DK/-104FD)
Alabama vs KState: Alt Spread Alabama -8.5 (+110DK/+112FD)
Michigan vs TCU: Michigan -7.5 (-110DK/-108FD)
Georgia vs Ohio State: Alt Spread Georgia -7.5 (+120DK/+126FD)
Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every Friday night on the Win Daily YouTube page.
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