Dave Gloeckner 
It is time to head back to college and enjoy a great day of College Football.
Welcome to Week 12 of the College Football season! We have hit the point in the year where just about every game is a conference matchup. With teams from the same conference meeting, we get the pleasure of watching great teams going at it. This week we get a couple of great matchups. The slate’s highlight is in Los Angeles, where UCLA hosts their crosstown rivals, USC.
Saturday 11/19 CFB
11/19 CFB Top Plays
Quarterbacks
DraftKings Quarterbacks
Holton Ahlers – ECU – $6,200 – Ahlers had a slight price increase after last week’s 20.6 performance against Cincinnati. Even with the price increase, I like Ahlers’s matchup against Houston. Houston has struggled to contain QBs all season and that should continue this week. Ahlers has only failed to score 20 points twice this season. Ahlers’s season average aligns pretty well with Houston’s terrible pass defense, Ahler’s comes in averaging 291.9 yards and 2 touchdowns a game while the Houston defense gives up 291.8 yards and 2.8 touchdowns. This is a spot where Ahlers should once again clear 20 points and I can see him hitting over 30.
Jayden de Laura – Arizona – $7,900 – de Laura is coming off a great performance to help Arizona takedown UCLA. I expect de Laura to ride that high and have a great performance against an average Washington State squad. For the sixth time this season, he hit over 25 points on DraftKings and just missed by .7 hitting 30 for the fourth time this year. With the talent that de Laura has around him in the WR department, he should hit 25 for the seventh time this season.
FanDuel Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams/Dorian Thompson-Robinson – USC/UCLA – $12,400/$11,400 – This is a two-for-one special. This is a huge statement game for both QBs as USC and UCLA are bitter rivals, and their scores on FanDuel should benefit from it. Williams is coming into this game as the highest FFPG on the slate, while DTR comes in as the 5th highest. Both QBs are going up against two of the worse pass defenses in the nation so I expect each of them to tear their opponent’s defenses apart. I have Caleb Williams ranked ahead of DTR because he has been more consistent all season, but DTR is coming in with a chip on his shoulder after last week’s terrible loss to Arizona.
Mike Wright – Vanderbilt – $7,000 – This is an interesting play this week. Wright came out of the gate fast scoring 42.14 against Hawaii in week one, but since then he has struggled. The struggles seem to have ended last as he led Vanderbilt to a win against Kentucky, where Wright scored 28.96 thanks to his 126 rushing yards and 2 total touchdowns. This week seems like the perfect matchup for him to continue his newly regained form as he takes on a Flordia squad that ranks 36th worse in both passing and rushing. Wright is a risky play because he can easily go back to the form he showed leading up to last week, but for $7000 he is worth the risk.
Pivots:
DraftKings – Cameron Ward – Washington State – $6,800 “low-end”, Max Duggan – TCU – $8,000 “mid-range”, Stetson Bennett – Georgia – $8,800 “high-end”
FanDuel – Spencer Rattler – South Carolina – $8,000 “low-end”, Jaxson Dart – Ole Miss- $9,400 “mid-range”, Hendon Hooker – Tennessee – $11,200 “high-end”
Running Backs
DraftKings Running Backs
Braelon Allen – Wisconsin – $7,000 – I think Allen’s price is the mispricing of the week. Allen this weekend takes on one of the worse rush defenses in the nation. Nebraska over the past four weeks has allowed at least 24.8 to their opponent’s lead back. It’s a favorable matchup for Allen, as this season he has reached 20 on DraftKings in seven of 10 games. This weekend I expect Allen to show the talent that made people consider him an elite RB.
Audric Estime – Notre Dame – $5,700 – Going to continue playing this guy until DraftKings decide to increase his price. Estime has scored at least 10 points in seven of his last eight. This weekend he takes on an average Boston College run defense that is allowing 157 yards and two rushing touchdowns per game. Estime should continue to be the lead back for Notre Dame and should get the chance to score once the Fighting Irish finds their way into the Red Zone.
FanDuel Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins – Ole Miss – $9,900 – Judkins has been one of the best RBs this season, and this weekend he gets a middle-of-the-pack Arkansas rush defense. Judkins comes into this game with a four 20+ points streak as well as a rushing touchdown in every game so far in his Freshman campaign. Last week against Alabama’s 20th-ranked rush defense Judkins ran for 135 and scored twice to finish with 28.4 points, and I expect a stronger performance against a weaker Arkansas squad.
Damien Martinez – Oregon State – $6,800 – Feels weird to include Martinez, but over the past five weeks he has taken over the Beaver backfield. Martinez has four 100 rushing yards and a three-rushing touchdown streak coming into the showdown against Arizona State. The ASU rush defense ranks 99th against the run and allows 2.3 rushing touchdowns a game. It is very likely that Martinez extends both of his streaks this weekend and grabs his 2nd 20-point game of the season. A big reason why I like him is that most people will pay up for RBs given the talent on this slate so Martinez can go well under-owned.
Pivots:
DraftKings – Michael Wiley – Arizona – $6,200 “low-end”, Kendre Miller – TCU – $6,800 “mid-range”, Blake Corum – Michigan – $8,500 “high-end”
FanDuel – Austin Jones – USC – $7,500 “low-end”. Raheim Sanders – Arkansas – $8,500 “mid-range”, Blake Corum – Michigan – $10,000 “high-end” BONUS High-End Pivot Zach Charbonnet – UCLA – $10,600
DraftKings Wide Receivers
Jacob Cowing – Arizona – $7,600. – Laura has some good weapons in Arizona, and the name at the top of that list is Cowing. Cowing is averaging 22.4 points this season on DraftKings and has scored at least 15 in all but 2 games. Cowing hasn’t found the endzone in the past six games, but I expect that to change this weekend against WSU.
Isaiah Williams – Illinois – $5,900 – This is a risky play, but I like Williams this week. Michigan should win this game, so I can see a game script where Illinois can’t rely on RB Chase Brown and instead DeVito will need to produce with his arm. That’s where Illinois’s top WR comes in, Williams this season has had at least 5 receptions in 2/3 of his games. Illinois will need Williams to get double-digit catches to even have a chance to keep up with Michigan.
Pivots:
Ja’Tavion Sanders – Texas – $4,500 “low-end”, CJ Johnson – ECU – $6,200 “mid-range”, Nathaniel Dell – Houston – $8,200 “high-end”
FanDuel Wide Receivers
Tahj Washington – USC – $7,600. – I included his teammate Addison in the pivot section, but I think Washington has a better value this week. Washington has become an elite target for Caleb Williams after both of USC’s top targets were injured. In the three games since Washington has 16 receptions for 296 yards and four touchdowns. Addison came back last week against Colorado, but Washington was still able to find the endzone. Even if Mario Williams also finds his way back onto the field this week, Washington is still a strong play since both UCLA and USC should find the endzone all game through the air.
Marvin Mims – WVU – $7,500 – OK State is a gold mine for opposing WRs. Mims has not shown his potential for large portions of this season, but against this OSU squad that ranks almost dead last in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, Mims should ball out. Over the past four weeks, Mims’s has averaged 12.4 despite only reaching the endzone once. This weekend we should see Mims grab his fourth 100-yard game and his fifth touchdown this season.
Pivots:
Jadon Haselwood – Arkansas – $7,000 “low-end”, Jake Bobo – UCLA – $8,100 “mid-range”, Jordan Addison – USC – $9,000 “high-end”
CFB Top Game Stacks
Washington State at Arizona (DK Only)
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FD Only)
USC at UCLA (FD Only)
Favorite Bets
DraftKings: Kansas State at West Virginia Alt Line +4.5 (+125). Miami at Clemson -19 (-110). Boston College at Notre Dame o43 (-110)
FanDuel: TCU Alt Line -4.5 (+132) at Baylor. USC at UCLA o76.5 (-110). Tennessee at South Carolina +21.5 (-106)
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