jason mezrahi 
We’re in the heart of the MLB postseason and looking at some 10/5 DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (9:07 EST). Let’s take in some data and find the gems on this awesome Saturday of MLB DFS action!
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10/5 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)
The games: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (5:07 p.m. EST) & Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (9:07 p.m. EST)
SP Strategy
Starting the right combo of two pitchers could give you a 20-40 point lead over the wrong combo of two starters, and there’s some huge value plays on this slate.
SP1: Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB (DK $10,800, FD $12,200)
For the most dominant pitcher on the slate, you’ll be spending top dollar, though Cole (who struck out over 300 batters in 2019) is much more affordable on DK. With his K/9 upside, he’s got the easiest avenue to 25+ DK points.
SP1 pivot: Blake Snell (DK $7,500, FD $9,400)
It’s hard to trust Snell against this dynamic and powerful Astros lineup. They hit for contact and power and sport a 131 wRC+ against LHPs. He’s super risky even at this price and Astros hitters have had plenty of success against him. He’s also probably not going to go past 2-3 IP, given his short appearances in his previous three starts/opens.
SP2: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. MIN (DK $6,400, FD $8,000)
Tanaka usually pitches well in big games, and he’s been areliable starter in the postseason for the Yankees the past several years (3-2,1.50 ERA/ 3.49 FIP, .162 BAA and 22.3 K%). I like that he’s carrying about a 4-to-1K/BB rate after the All-Star break, even if there’s a chance he gets blown up fora couple HRs early. That would be a disaster for us, but his pivot – devoid of playoffexperience and still a veritable neophyte at the big-league level, is evenriskier.
SP2 pivot: Randy Dobnak (DK $5,800, FD $5,500)
Dobnak’s regular season numbers look a bit like Tanaka’spostseason stats – so he’s worth a look. But the Yankees were having somepretty good at-bats last night and I’m just not too interested in a play thisrisky.
10/5 DFS SP1/2 Combo Breakdown:
Top 3:
- Cole/Tanaka leaves $4,100 per hitter on DK (Preferred – mixing in value and stud bats)
- Tanaka/Dobnak leaves $4,725 per hitter on DK (For an Astros full power stack and just a couple of the best Yanks/Twins bats)
- Snell/Tanaka leaves $4,512 per hitter on DK (super risky but viable if Cole gets less than 20 points and Snell pitches 2-3 clean)
Bottom 3:
- Cole/Dobnak leaves $4,175 per hitter on DK (The option if you want to fade Tanaka)
- Snell/Dobnak leaves $4,587 per hitter on DK (Crazy talk)
- Cole/Snell leaves $3.962 per hitter on DK (No thanks)
10/5 DFS Hitters
10/5 DFS C: Martin Maldonado, HOU (DK $2,900, FD $2,200)
If Maldonado gets the start, he’s probably the cheapest starting bat on the slate and makes perfect sense as a contrarian play the obvious options of Gary Sanchez and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s got four hits in four career AB (with a homer) against Gerrit Cole. Pivots: Sanchez for power upside, d’Arnaud for BvP fanatics.
10/5 DFS 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, NYY (DK $4,600, FD $3,800)
The most expensive 1B is still a bargain at this price, and he’s got multi-homer upside in Yankee Stadium. The Parrot walker has a 121 wRC+ against right-handers this season. Pivot: Yuri Gurriel (1B/3B) at just $4,200 on DK.
10/5 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (DK $4,300, FD $4,100)
We’re still on track with our basic builds of Astros/Yankees and the price is depressed on DK. I’m not going to overthink this one, plugging in one of the best hitters of the past decade, postseason included. Pivot: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500 on DK) if he’s starting.
10/5 DFS 3B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, FD $3,800)
The Yankees leadoff hitter connected last night and always give you a chance with his high contact rates and ability to punch one the other way. He drew some surprising comparisons to Derek Jeter in an eye-opening deep dive before he even played a game for the Yankees, and I’ve been a believer from day one. Pivot: Alex Bregman ($4,300 on FD), Gurriel on DK.
10/5 DFS SS: Alex Bregman, HOU (DK $4,800)
Bregman launched 41 homers this year in an MVP-type season, including six in his final 13 games. He’s exceptional against LHPs (205 wRC+ and .473 wOBA) and there’s no reason to leave him out of your builds. Pivot: Gleyber Torres ($4,000 on DK), Didi Gregorius ($3,200 on FD).
10/5 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY ($DK $4,200, FD $2,900)
Opposing teams have been pitching the sluggers carefully this season, and guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may only see a couple mashable pitches over multiple ABs. This has allowed Gardner to bulk up his power numbers (28 HRs and .253 ISO) this season and produce at unexpected levels. He’s inexpensive and will be chalky, but he’s a must-have in your lineup builds. Pivot: Jake Marisnick (DK $3,000, FD $2,300) – I’ll have some lineups with both Gardner and Marisnick so I can fit all these other big bats.
10/5 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $4,000, FD $3,800)
Getting Stanton at this price seems like highway robbery, and while he’s probably going to exit early for a pinch runner or defensive replacement, he can get a lot done in 2-3 ABs. Watching his ABs last night, he looks good and is going to make most of my GPP lineups. Pivot: Michael Brantley (DK $3,800, FD $3,500).
10/5 DFS OF: Max Kepler, MIN (DK $4,500, FD $3,400)
I need some Twins in here and I’m most interested in Kepler, who’s plate approach and batted ball data seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter and Tanaka could easily serve up a dinger if he leaves one in Kepler’s wheelhouse. Pivot: Eddie Rosario (DK $4,500, FD $3,600).
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10/5 DFS FeaturedShowdown (9:07 p.m. on DK)
It’s going to be tough to use Cole as CPT and use allprobable starting players, but you can do it.
Sample DK Showdown Lineup with Cole at CPT ($400 remaining :
Captain (1.5x) – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($8,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)
UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)
UTIL – J. Wendle ($4,000)
I‘m more inclined to use Cole at UTIL and fit in a studAstros bat at CPT (with d’Arnaud as my lone TB bat in the Altuve build):
Sample with Cole at UTIL:
Captain (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($14,700) or J. Altuve ($13,500)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($5,000)
UTIL – M. Straw ($6,800) or M. Brantley ($7,800)
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10/5 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (9:07 EST on FD)
Hitters only, with Springer or Brantley determining if it’sMaldonado or Gurriel in the last spot.
Sample FD lineup:
MVP (2x) – A. Bregman ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – J. Altuve ($8,000)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)/M.Brantley ($7,500)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)/Y. Gurriel ($6,500)
