jason mezrahi 
We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.
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10/25 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)
The game: World Series Game 3 – Houston Astros at WashingtonNationals, 8:07 p.m. EST
Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.
10/25 DFS SP Strategy and Game Notes
Zack Greinke ($15,900/$10,600)
Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.
Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.
Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.
Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.
One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.
Anibal Sánchez ($13,800/$9,200)
Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.
We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.
Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.
If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.
Here’s what I’ll be doing:
Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.
Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.
10/25 DFS Hitters
I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.
NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup
10/25 DFS Washington Nationals bats
AnthonyRendon (DK $15,300/$10,200)
Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.
JuanSoto (DK $15,000/$10,000)
Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.
HowieKendrick (DK $13,800/$9,200)
If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.
SpotlightValue: Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800) and Adam Eaton (DK $11,400/$7,600)
We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.
Other10/25 DFS options: Trea Turner (DK $14,100/$9,400), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $10,500/$7,000),Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,900/$6,600)
10/25 DFS Houston Astros bats
AlexBregman (DK $13,500/$9,000)
We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.
JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)
Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.
Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,900/$8,600)
The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.
SpotlightValue: Yuri Gurriel ($11,700/$7,800)
Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.
NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.
Other 10/25 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $12,300/$8,200), George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos (DK $8,100/$5,400)
SampleDK GPP lineup #1 (w/Greinke)
CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)
UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)
SampleDK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced w/no pitchers)
CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)
UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)
SampleDK GPP lineup #3 (w/ Greinke and Houston closer)
CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)
UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)
UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)
SampleDK GPP Lineup #4 (Nats w/Sanchez and Doolittle)
CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)
UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)
10/25 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game
You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!
SampleFD GPP lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)
MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)
UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)
SampleFD GPP lineup #2 (Nats-dominant)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)
UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)
SampleFD lineup (Balanced)
MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)
UTIL – Robles ($5,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
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Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x
Home Run Derby: Gurriel, Soto and Bregman
Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.
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