10/25 DFS Diamonds: DFS Pro J.P. on Week 8 NFL, NBA, and Props

HappyFriday to all of you  and welcome to the “DeepDive for Week 8” with some NBA and props. I’ll go game by game, but know thatjust because I might be avoiding the game doesn’t mean I won’t throw in alineup or 3 in the Milly Maker. Usually, the team we avoid or the team facingoff against a good defense gets lucky and could off. You just never know. Pleasealso see the deep dive for NBA tonight below the football along with myfavorite props for NBA tonight.

Pleasemessage me with any questions on our premium slack channel or Twitter. Happyreading!

DeepDive for NFL Week 8

Seahawksvs. Falcons – Game Stack of the Week

Sign meup for any team facing the Falcons. It’s safe to say that the Falcons are oneof the worst defense and teams in the NFL. Even though Russell Wilson is themost expensive QB this week, I’ll have a bunch of Wilson lineups with TylerLockett and DK Metcalf stacks. I might even double up on WR for the Seahawks inmost of my lineups. With Dissly out, Wilson needs to throw it to someone. Asfor the Falcons, let’s wait and see on Matt Ryan’s status throughout the weekas I do like the Atlanta side as well with the Seahawks having a pretty weaksecondary.

Core Plays  – 10/25 DFS

• FanDuel
  • Russell Wilson, QB, SEA – $8,600
  • Chris Carson, RB, SEA – $8,000
  • Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $7,200
  • DK Metcalf, WR, SEA – $6,600
  • Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $7,800 (If Ryan plays)
  • Austin Hooper, TE, ATL – $6,600 (More if Schaub plays)
• DraftKings
  • Russell Wilson, QB, SEA – $7,200
  • Chris Carson, RB, SEA – $7,000
  • Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $7,000
  • D.K. Metcalf, WR, SEA – $5,000
  • Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $7,700 (If Ryan play)

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Jaron Brown, WR, SEA – $5,100
  • Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,400
• DraftKings
  • Jaron Brown, WR, SEA – $4,000
  • Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,600
  • Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – $6,000 (If he plays)

Texansvs. Raiders

This isthe shootout game of the week. Both defenses are middle to lower tier and bothhave some above average offenses.  I expect a lot of points in this gameand a lot of Deshaun Watson with Kenny Stills and DeAndre Hopkins in my GPPs. Ibelieve Watson paired with Hopkins might be one of the higher owned QB-WRstacks this week, especially with Fuller gone. I also like Derek Carr withDarren Waller as it seems they have a great thing going right now. The onlything is they finally fixed Waller’s price so it’s not as low as it has beenthe past few weeks. Josh Jacobs pricing on DraftKings is broken. He will mostlikely be in a ton of my lineups.

Core Plays  – 10/25 DFS

• FanDuel
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $8,200
  • Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $8,400
  • Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK – $7,200
• DraftKings
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $8,100
  • Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $7,100
  • Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK – $5,800

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Derek Carr, QB, OAK – $6,900
  • Kenny Stills, WR, HOU – $5,700
• DraftKings
  • Derek Carr, QB, OAK – $5,000
  • Kenny Stills, WR, HOU – $4,700
  • Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK – $5,800

Saintsvs. Cardinals

This isgoing to be more of a one sided target for me this week. I love TeddyBridgewater , but only if he plays. I want to hold off on Drew Brees if he’sback because we aren’t sure how he will do after missing over a month. If JaredCook plays, we can play the game of playing the tight end versus the Cardinalsas we have all season. The Cardinals can’t stop the tight end unless their nameis Evan Engram or Tyler Eifert.  TheSaints defend well against the run and have an underrated defense as a whole. Iwon’t be targeting anyone from the Cardinals side on this one. I’ll just focuson Bridgewater, Michael Thomas, and Jared Cook.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • Michael Thomas, WR, NO – $8,500
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO (If he plays) – $5,800
  • Latavius Murray (If no Kamara), RB, NO – $6,200
• DraftKings
  • Michael Thomas, WR, NO – $8,000
  • Teddy Bridgewater (if no Brees), QB, NO – $5,900
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO (If he plays) – $5,000
  • Latavius Murray (If no Kamara), RB, NO – $5,800

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO – $5,800
  • Latavius Murray (If no Kamara), RB, NO – $6,200
• DraftKings
  • Teddy Bridgewater (if no Brees), QB, NO –  $5,900
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO – $5,000
  • Latavius Murray (If no Kamara), RB, NO – $5,800

Bucsvs. Titans

There is nothing more exciting in DFS than two mediocre teams facing off against each other. In all honesty, it isn’t my favorite and I won’t have much in this game except Jonnu Smith if Delanie Walker is out.  I also like the price tag on Mike Evans and Derrick Henry, but both teams are a middle tier defense and I won’t be high on them.  I love  Ryan Tannehill with A.J. Brown for tournaments.

Value Plays – 10/25 DFS

• FanDuel
  • Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN (if Walker is out) – $4,900
  • A.J. Brown, WR, TEN – $5,500
  • Ryan Tannehill, WR, TEN – $6,900
• DraftKings
  • Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN (if Walker is out) – $2,800
  • A.J. Brown, WR, TEN – $4,100
  • Ryan Tannehill, WR, TEN – $5,100

Bengalsvs. Rams

Not surehow I’m feeling about this game because it has the potential to be a blowout. Ibelieve most will be on Jared Goff and the Rams WRs with how bad the Bengals defenseis, but their run defense is the worst in the NFL. I like Gurley this week as asneaky play and I don’t think he’ll garner much ownership. I’d avoid this gameexcept for GPPs.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • Todd Gurley, RB, LAR – $7,400
• DraftKings
  • Todd Gurley, RB, LAR – $7,400

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN – $5,600
  • Alex Erickson, WR, CIN – $5,500
  • Auden Tate, WR, CIN -$5,400
• DraftKings
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN – $5,100
  • Alex Erickson, WR, CIN – $3,700
  • Auden Tate, WR, CIN -$4,200

Eaglesvs. Bills

TheEagles defense is bad and the Bills defense is susceptible to the pass as wesaw Fitzpatrick from the Miami Dolphins throw all over that Bills defense. Ibelieve most people will fade the Eagles defense, but I don’t hate them thisweek. I like Josh Allen with John Brown a lot more than anything else in thisgame.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – $5,900
  • Josh Allen, QB, BUF – $7,700
• DraftKings
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – $5,900
  • Josh Allen, QB, BUF – $6,500

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – $5,900
• DraftKings
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – $5,900

Jetsvs. Jaguars

This gamemight be the fade of the week for me, but I wouldn’t mind throwing some MinshewMania aka Gardner Minshew this week with a cheap D.J. Chark. Chark is comingoff two straight poor performances, but his price tag is dropping and Minshewloves to throw to him. The Jets run defense is worse than its pass defense, butI don’t think I’ll target this game except for GPPs.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • D.J. Chark , WR, JAX – $6,300
• DraftKings
  • D..J Chark , WR, JAX – $6,000

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Gardner Minshew, QB, JAX – $6,900
• DraftKings
  • Gardner Minshew, QB, JAX – $5,500

Broncosvs. Colts

This isanother game I’m going to avoid for the most part, especially cash. I’m a bigfan of the Colts defense this week, but Emmanuel Sanders is gone and the onlyreal WR left is Courtland Sutton. Sutton is priced pretty favorably and I willuse him for value on this slate. I’ll tell you this much though. I’m all-in onthe Colts defense on DK.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $6,000
• DraftKings
  • Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $5,300
  • Colts Defense – $2,900

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • DaeSean Hamilton, WR, DEN – $4,800
• DraftKings
  • DaeSean Hamilton, WR, DEN – $3,300
  • Colts Defense – $2,900

Chargersvs. Bears

I knowI’ve talked about certain game I don’t like, but I’ll have a few plays forGPPs, but this game is a game I’m completely avoiding. The only play I may haveis both defenses because both offenses are bad this year. Avoid this game evenin GPPs.

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Chargers DST – $4,100
  • Bears DST – $4,500
• DraftKings
  • Chargers DST – $2,300
  • Bears DST – $3,600

Panthersvs. 49ers

Anothergame I will not be targeting much. I don’t see much value in any of theseplayers and as much as I love Christian McCaffery, he is just way too much. Avoidthis game and save your money.

Brownsvs. Patriots

Onceagain, a game I don’t like, but there is some value on the Patriots side I maytarget. I do like the pricing of Julian Edelman and Philip Dorsett, but I don’tlike anything else in this game. I might throw one or two GPPs of a cheap OdellBeckham with Baker Mayfield, but that’s in the milly maker and nothing else.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • Julian Edelman, WR, NE – $6,600
  • Phillip Dorsett II, WR, NE – $5,600
• DraftKings
  • Phillip Dorsett II, WR, NE – $4,200

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Phillip Dorsett II, WR, NE – $5,600
• DraftKings
  • Phillip Dorsett II, WR, NE – $4,200

GPPGame of the Week:

Lionsvs. Giants

I’m nottoo sure how sneaky this game will be, but I’m loading up on both sides thisweek. The Lions rank towards the bottom in run defense and the Giants just haveone of the worst defenses as a whole.  I expect a shootout, but thequestion is whether Daniel Jones can pick it back up after some back to backpoor performances.

Core Plays – 10/25 DFS  

• FanDuel
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – $7,700
  • Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG – $8,600
  • Kenny Golladay, WR, DET – $6,700
• DraftKings
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – $6,100
  • Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG – $8,900
  • Kenny Golladay, WR, DET – $6,400

ValuePlays

• FanDuel
  • Marvin Jones, WR, DET – $6,300
• DraftKings
  • Marvin Jones, WR, DET – $5,800
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – $6,100

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NBA– 10/25 DFS

I’ll befocusing on my core and GPP plays for each position along with my favorite valueplays.   I did mention that I like to wait and see two weeks before Igo heavy into my bankroll for NBA to see what offenses to target against baddefenses. For example, the Clippers were one of the worst defenses last year,but with some big upgrades this season, I see them as a Top 10 defense now.This is why I like the wait and see approach for the first few weeks of theseason.

Wementioned this in our Premium Slack Channel yesterday, but with NBA DFS, youneed to stay locked in between the final hour before lock until lock. If youcan’t be engaged during that hour, we recommend avoiding the NBA slate.Starting lineups and other news is vital to being successful in NBA DFS. I willstill be playing a good chunk for the first few weeks so let’s win some moneyand dive in.

MyCore and Value Plays by Position:

• Core Plays – PG
  • Kyrie Irving, PG, BKN –  FD: $9,700; DK – $9,000
    • Kyrie put on a show in his opening game with the Nets and should be able to feast on the lowly Knicks. The Knicks have upgraded themselves this season, but they allowed a ton of points in their first game of the season and I expect it to continue versus the Nets.
  • Value Play – Devonte Graham, PG, CHA – FD: $5,100; DK – $4,600
    • Graham played 27 minutes leading him to 23 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists versus the Bulls. They are playing a bottom tier Timberwolves team, who allows a ton of points. I expect a shootout and Graham should benefit.
• Core Plays – SG
  • Bradley Beal, SG, WAS – FD : $9,500; DK – $8,600
    • In my first NBA article, I mentioned OKC having no one on their team really. I know Washington will be one of the worst teams in the league, but someone has to score. That person will be Beal in a plus matchup against the rebuilding Thunder.
  • Value Play – Fred VanVleet, SG, TOR – FD : $6,600; DK – $5,700
    • VanVleet is the real deal. This is plain and simple. I think most of the offense will be through VanVleet and Siakam with Lowry being the more support play. He’s priced pretty low on FD and I think he’ll go under owned given his matchup versus a good defensive Celtics squad. His usage will high last game and he should easily hit value versus the Celtics
  • Other Value Plays to Consider
    • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SG, OKC – FD : $6,800; DK – $6,500
    • Dwayne Bacon, SG, CHA – FD : $6,100; DK – $5,700
• Core Plays – SF
  • Taurean Prince, SF, BKN – FD : $5,600; DK – $5,600
    • My least favorite position of the night, but we need to save some salary if we go Kyrie and Beal. I believe this is the spot. If Prince is going to get 41 minutes per game, sign me up. I know the offense runs primarily through Kyrie, but Prince gets a ton of defensive statistics as well and could be a sneaky play versus a bad Knicks team
  • Value Play – Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, PHO – FD : $6,400; DK – $5,700
    • I was torn between Oubre and Prince, but I sided with Prince’s matchup versus the lowly Knicks. Oubre saw a ton of usage and had a few defensive statistics that made him pretty valuable the other night. He has a tough matchup versus Denver , but I think he could hit value given he’s priced too low.
• Core Plays – PF
  • Lauri Markkanen, PF, CHI – FD: $8,200; DK – $10,100; DK – $8,000
    • Markkanen is going to be a sleeper this year , which is why I drafted him season long leagues. He’s going to be the top offensive producer all season and he faces off tonight versus one of the worst teams in the Grizzlies. David Jones used him the other night and cashed big time. I expect he won’t be as sneaky now that the cat is out of the bag, but I’ll still use him a ton tonight.
  • Value Play – Richaun Holmes, PF, SAC –  FD : $3,700; DK – $3,400
    • With Bagley out for four to six weeks and Harry Giles ruled out tonight, someone needs to fill in. It isn’t official, but I think Holmes gets the nod and he’s almost the minimum on FD. Load him up if he starts!
• Core Plays – C
  • Hassan Whiteside, C, POR – FD: $8,000; DK – $7,200
    • It hurts me to say this, but Whiteside looked good the other night. He plays against a depleted Sacramento who is just getting hurt with a ton of injuries.  Bagley is ruled out and they had Dedmon to cover Whiteside with no solid backup. I think Whiteside feasts on this matchup, but I don’t like him after his cry baby antics with the Miami Heat the past few years.

• Other Core Plays to Consider
  • Karl-Anthony Towns, C, MIN – FD : $11,500; DK – $10,800
  • Nikola Jokic, C, DEN – FD: $10,800; DK – $9,300
  • Value Play – Aron Baynes, C, PHO – FD : $3,500; DK – $3,200
    • DeAndre Ayton is suspended for 25 games and the only true Center that is left is Aaron Baynes. He’s the bare minimum on FD and I believe he draws the start. You can save salary this route, but only if he starts.  

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My 2 plays of the day come down to what I was talking about in the Core Plays section of NBA. I’m a big fan of the Nets vs. Knicks game and I think it’ll be a shootout. Kyrie is the Sheriff in town and he should be able to score over 30 points with no problem. Although The Nets struggle against the big man, I think Randle will not score as much. There is a lot of mouths to feed on the Knicks and I think Randle will hit below 20 this game.

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