Welcome to a Triple Play Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. Today’s article will feature the day slate for DFS as that has more games to choose from (7) than the day slate (2).
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -130 vs SEATTLE MARINERS (1:10PM EST)
The Guardians have been one of the better teams all season especially at home where they post a 22-9 record, which is the 2nd best winning percentage in baseball. But where they play even better is during the day, as they have a 18-7 record under the sun. Conversely, as good as Seattle has been of late, their 17-20 road record is the worst for any Division leader. And 2nd worst for any team above 0.500 (KC is 16-20 on the road).
While the pitching matchup is skewed towards Seattle, the Guardians are 8-5 in Logan Allen’s starts. And Seattle is last in the MLB in batting average against LHP’s at 0.211.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -155 at OAKLAND ATHLETICS (3:37PM EST)
The Royals are trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the last place Oakland A’s today in California. Surprisingly enough, the A’s do have one sweep on the year which came back in late April against the Pittsburgh Pirates. But the Royals, on the other hand, have not been swept this year. So they’ll try to keep that streak alive when they hand the ball to the MLB leader in wins, Seth Lugo. Besides the 10 wins, Lugo has been stellar on the road where he is 7-0 with a 1.83 ERA. That includes wins against strong teams such as the LA Dodgers and Minnesota Twins. And as we know, Oakland is on the polar opposite side of those squads. Which brings me to my final analysis that has me backing the Royals, in Lugo’s five starts against teams in the bottom third of the league in batting, he is 6-0 with a 1.15 ERA (CHW x2, OAK, DET, TOR, and TBR).
DOG OF THE DAY: TBD
PLAYER PROPS
LOGAN ALLEN over 4.5 K’s (-110 BET365)
It’s crazy to see but Logan Allen has the same strikeout prop as his counterpart, Luis Castillo, today in their matchup. Castillo has the 4th highest K rate on the slate today, at 25.5%, while Allen’s is just 18.8%. Which just throws up smoke signals already to prospective bettors. And what drives you to Logan Allen’s over 4.5 K’s, is that Seattle is striking out at a 33.3% clip in the last week. And that goes up to 35.1% against LHP’s.
TBD
To be posted by 5pm
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:05PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:05pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 7.
Top Pitchers to Target:
SETH LUGO ($9500 DK):
The Royal SP is tied for the league in wins with 10. In fact, his 10 wins are the most he’s had in his 9-year career. And there’s still 3 months of baseball left. So you can see, at age 34, Seth Lugo has been a revelation and a big reason why the Royals are in a playoff position. Today, Lugo goes for win number 11 against the A’s. While Oakland has taken the first two games in this series with Kansas City, they still have the 2nd least runs scored in the AL. They also own the 2nd highest K rate in June, at 26.6%. And then there’s Lugo’s road splits where he is 7-0 with a 1.83 ERA. Oakland has been known to be a pitcher’s park and the Royals SP has been one of the best away from home this year.
MACKENZIE GORE ($8900 DK):
The Nationals are quietly playing some very good baseball of late as they’ve won nine of their past eleven games. The starting pitching has played a major role in that recent success, as their 3.39 ERA is 5th best in the majors over the past 2 weeks. And outside of Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore has been Washington’s best starter. In his 14 starts, he’s only had one game where he allowed more than 3 ER’s. And he’s been dialing up the K’s, with double digits strikeouts in two of his past four starts. Which is a big reason why he owns the 2nd best K rate on the card today behind on Luis Gil.
His opponent today, the Diamondbacks, do hit lefties well as they lead the league in batting average against LHP’s. But based on the Nationals recent success as well as Gore’s ascension in the past month, I will be playing Washington’s SP as part of my pitcher pool.
: LUIS CASTILLO ($9200 DK), LUIS GIL ($10800 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
SPENCER ARRIGHETTI ($7600 DK)
There is risk in backing an SP with a 3-6 record and 6.37 ERA. But advanced metrics show his xFIP and SIERA to be more than 2 runs better than his current ERA. And outside of his blowup last week against Detroit, Arrighetti had pitched well for over a month. But besides the positive regression, the biggest reason to roster the Astros SP today is because he’s facing the Chicago White Sox. The South Siders have just 3 runs in the first two games of their series with Houston. And they’ve mustered just 10 hits in those two games. The White Sox have been held to three runs or less in six of their last eight games.
HONORABLE MENTION: SIMEON WOODS RICHARDSON ($7400 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ASTROS:
Houston is dealing with injuries to Tucker and Alvarez and has had to use new faces in their lineup to help them get back into contention. So you can actually get a cheap Astros stack today and that’s good news as they face Chris Flexen who is 2-6 with a 5.35 ERA. And the main reason to attack Flexen is because he’s susceptible to the home run, allowing 10 on the season to date. I’ll look at the top of the lineup with Altuve, Bregman, and Pena. But I will look to sprinkle in Singleton, Myers and Dubon depending where the sit in the lineup.
TWINS:
The Twins lead baseball in batting (0.326) and are 2nd in homers (11) over the past week. Their offense has been boosted by the return of 3B Royce Lewis, who has seven homers since returning to the lineup on June 4th. I’ll look to get the other bats that are hot for Minnesota in my stack which include Carlos Correa, Carlos Santana, Willi Castro and Byron Buxton.
Other Stacks to Consider: KC ROYALS
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