Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. I hope everyone here enjoyed Father’s Day and spent some quality time with their close ones. We saw some impressive series wins over the weekend by Baltimore and Boston as each team took two out of three versus the top teams respectively in each league. The marquee series opening up this week are Baltimore and the Yankees as well as two other Division leaders in the AL with the Mariners and Guardians set for a 3-game series in Cleveland.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
PITTSBURGH PIRATES -190 vs CINCINNATI REDS
This is a big number and I don’t like to lay the large juice. But I love Paul Skenes, like most bettors. And so do the Pirates bats as they’ve score 6 or more runs in five of his six starts. And tonight, they face a reliever in Carson Spiers who has performed well of late but the Reds are just 1-4 in his five appearances. However, this is all about Paul Skenes and his pitching excellence to date. He’s allowed 3 runs or less in all six of his starts. More importantly, he’s allowed just 26 hits in 33.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.96.
And another factor I consider is the Pirates play well in series openers. They are 5-2 on Monday’s and have won the last four series opening games.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -155 at MIAMI MARLINS
The Cardinals come into their series against the Marlins having won six or their last nine games. Conversely, the Marlins come into this series having just two games in June, totaling a 2-11 record this month. And the Cards hand the ball to their best pitcher tonight in Sonny Gray who is looking for his 9th win this season. The Marlins give the ball to Braxton Garrett who is the owner of a 6.10 ERA. And while it’s a small sample size, he has faced St Louis three times in his career and has a 5.65 ERA against them in 16 innings of work.
Then as we look at the offenses, Miami is dead last in batting average (0.211), wOBA, and runs scored (26) this month. They’ve been shutout four times and scored three or less in 10 of 13 games in June.
DOG OF THE DAY: N/A
PLAYER PROPS
SONNY GRAY over 6.5 K’s (-125 DK)
The Marlins have a 27.7% K rate in the month of June, which is the highest in baseball. Gray has posted 7 K’s or more in three of his last four starts so he’s definitely capable of reaching this number. The concern is his performance on the road, as he’s allowed 9 ER’s in his last two road starts. But even with a high run allowance, he struck out 19 in those two games.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
SONNY GRAY ($10,500 DK):
For most of the reasons I like the Cardinals tonight in my betting column are why I am rostering Sonny Gray. The Marlins have just 26 runs in 13 games this month. They are batting just 0.211 and have a 2-11 record. Additionally, Gray has 91 K’s which is top 20 in the league despite missing several starts at the beginning of the season.
PAUL SKENES ($9500 DK):
Paul Skenes has been a phenom for the Pirates. His 35.3% K rate is the highest on the board today and he gets to face Reds who have high K rates versus top end pitchers. And he has a 2.43 ERA but a 2.18 SIERA and 1.93 FIP showing his current pitching is trending towards the same, or even better, results. Add to that, the fact that Skenes is still under $10K is also a factor tonight as his average fantasy points (23.5 DK) are more inline with pitchers in the $10-11K range.
: MAX FRIED ($9800 DK), CRISTOPHER SANCEHZ ($8200 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
BRAXTON GARRETT ($7200 DK)
Even though I’m betting the Cardinals tonight, I do think Garrett has potential to put up a solid game for Miami. That’s because the Cardinals have the 29th best batting average against LHP’s this season. And St Louis has the 2nd least runs scored in the National League, leading only their opponent tonight in Miami. Garrett’s 6.10 ERA is also met with a 3.49 SIERA showing he’s due for some better luck. So based on matchup and projected performance, Garrett carries good value tonight.
HONORABLE MENTION: CARLOS RODRIGUEZ ($6300 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
PHILLIES:
The Phillies get a boost tonight as they return home off an 8-game road trip that included stops in London, Boston and Baltimore. That’s because star SS Trae Turner is being activated from the IL after missing 6+ weeks of action with a hamstring injury. I also like that they’ll be in the confines of their home park, CBP, where temperatures will be near 90 degrees F. So the ball should be flying tonight, and San Diego SP Randy Vasquez has a fly ball rate near 40% (top 5 on the slate tonight). He’s allowed 8 home runs in 38.1 innings including five over his last 4 starts. Look at the bombers like Schwarber (Mr. June), Harper, and Turner to look to lift the ball. I’ll also try to get looks at Sosa, Bohm and Castellanos.
METS:
The Mets bats have been very productive this month registering a 0.274 batting average which is 4th best in the MLB. While Jon Gray’s numbers look intimidating, they are met with upcoming projected negative regression. That’s because his 2.17 ERA is met with a 3.66 SIERA and 3.53 xFIP. Batters like Alonso, Martinez, Lindor and Torrens all have 3 home runs this month. So they’ll be on my list of bats to stack as well as Nimmo and Bader.
Other Stacks to Consider: DODGERS, PIRATES
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