Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. The MLB bets were solid yesterday as I went 3-3 but won two plus money plays. Unfortunately, the Braves got smoked by the Nats to put our numbers in the negative (down 0.4 units). But we’re back at it today to try and get back in the red and keep our strong year going.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -110 vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Brewers come into tonight’s contest winners in four of their last five games. More importantly, they have one of the better home records in baseball at 18-10. They’ll need that tonight when the Blue Jays come to town as Toronto has started to play better baseball of late, winning six of their last ten. But it’s the home cooking that has me riding the Brewers has they’ve won eight of their last nine in Milwaukee. Plus, Toronto SP Jose Berrios has a 2-3 record on the road and his ERA goes from 1.82 at home to 3.76 away from Canada.
BALTIMORE ORIES -120 at TORONTO BLUE JAYS
DOG OF THE DAY: N/A
PLAYER PROPS
SETH LUGO over 4.5 K’s (-125 DK)
The Royals SP is an impressive 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA this season. And his K rate has been satisfactory at 21.1%. He’ll need that tonight against a Yankees team that just struck out 12 times against Dodgers SP Tyler Glasnow. In fact, they allowed all Dodgers SP’s to go over their K prop this weekend. I’m banking that Lugo can make that four in a row based on the heavy dose of RH bats he should see from the Yankees.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 7:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 7:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 6.
Top Pitchers to Target:
DYLAN CEASE ($10,300 DK):
Dylan Cease has struggled of late, allowing 18 ER’s in his past 5 starts. To put that in perspective, he allowed just 15 ER’s in his first 8 starts. But tonight, he gets Oakland which should help him get back on track and start putting up the fantasy numbers that we saw earlier in the year from him. In the month of June, the A’s have a 0.196 batting average (29th in baseball) and a 24.9% K rate (6th highest). Both those numbers light the lamp for us and allow us to confidently put Dylan Cease in our player pool.
LOGAN GILBERT ($9800 DK):
Since the return of Luis Robert, the White Sox lineup has improved. However, their strikeout numbers have gone up considerably too. And it’s not like the improvement at the plate is enough to steer away from attacking them as their team average is still worst in the MLB. As for Gilbert, he has better K numbers at home with a 9.78 K/9 in Seattle vice 7.23 K/9 on the road.
: SETH LUGO ($8400 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
CHRIS PADDACK ($7100 DK)
The Twins SP has had some flashes of good this year as he’s racked up four starts of 24 DK points or more. But he’s also had the bad, with six starts below 10 DK points. I’m banking on the good tonight as he faces a Rockies team that has the #1 K rate in the month of June. Paddack also has an xFIP of 3.83 and SIERA of 3.81 which are both roughly 1.5 runs lower than his 5.26 ERA.
HONORABLE MENTION: COLIN REA ($6200 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
TWINS:
While the Twins haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard of late, they have the best opportunity to do so tonight when they faceoff against SP Dakota Hudson. Hudson’s 5.25 ERA is right inline with his advanced metrics. And his low strikeout rate means more potential for balls to find grass (or the seats). I’ll gladly stack Twins batters starting with Royce Lewis and then pairing him up with Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Carlos Correa and Carlos Santana.
PADRES:
The Padres have the 3rd highest batting average in June with a 0.281 clip. And they’re tied for 5th in homeruns with 12. Kyle Higashioka and Fernando Tatis lead that charge with 3 homers each. They’ll be considered in my SD stack as well as Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado and David Peralta.
Other Stacks to Consider: ASTROS, BREWERS
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