Tuesday 2/16 UCL DFS

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This article focuses on 2/16 UCL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format. The goal is to gain an edge on the field at large.

Tuesday 2/16 UCL Slate and DFS Gameplan

After a huge wait, the Champion’s League finally returns and does so with a pair of very interesting matches.

PSG (+240) at Barcelona (+100)

First, we have a rematch of the infamous “Remontada” where Barcelona overcame a 4-0 deficit to win 6-5 on aggregate against PSG in 2017.

It comes at a time when PSG is missing two of their top three players in Neymar and Angel Di Maria. Of PSG’s primary trio, only Kylian Mbappe will be active, with Mauro Icardi and Moise Kean likely filling the void. We will have to see how set pieces shake up, perhaps Marco Veratti will have a role.

At home at the Camp Nou, Barcelona is favored and needs to find a way to walk away with an advantage before travelling to the second leg in Paris. All eyes will be on their talisman Leo Messi, who does not have the huge goal scoring odds of slates past at +100. However, that still makes for the highest goal scoring odds on this slate. Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele should be up front, supporting Messi in the attack.

Liverpool (+128) at Leipzig (+205) “In Hungary”

The other game is fairly intriguing as well, as at the moment, once mighty Liverpool is in very poor form. All English teams are currently banned from travel to Germany due to UK Covid-19 variant, so this game will be played in Hungary. Despite their recent issues, Liverpool still have the third highest odds to win the Champion’s League at +800, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Despite losing Timo Werner over the summer, this Leipzig team has remained very solid. They are having a successful season in the Bundesliga and should be less impacted than Liverpool by the move to Hungary. Master tactician Julian Nagelsmann will be look to exploit his German counterpart Jurgen Klopp and hope Liverpool’s struggles continue. While Leipzig might not win the Champion’s League, they are more than capable of the upset here, if Liverpool comes out sloppy.

Notable Goal Scoring Odds and Key Injuries

Note: Many of these players will not end up starting, but their goal odds are listed just in case. If they do not end up starting, disregard them. All odds are listed +300 or below and projected starters are listed in bold.

PSG (+240) at Barcelona (+100) – Lionel Messi (+100), Kylian Mbappe (+155), Antoine Griezmann (+195), Mauro Icardi (+200), Moise Kean (+235), Ousmane Dembele (+340), Pablo Sarabia (+400), Pedri (+510)

Key Injuries

PSG: Neymar “out”, Angel Di Maria “out”, Juan Bernat “out”

Barcelona: Ansu Fati “out”, Phillipe Coutinho “out”, Sergi Roberto “out”, Ronald Araujo “out”, Martin Braithwaite “doubtful”, Gerald Pique “GTD”

Liverpool (+128) at Leipzig (+205) – Mohammed Salah (+118), Sadio Mane (+195), Alexander Sorloth (+215), Hee-Chan Hwang (+235), Yussuf Poulsen (+235), Roberto Firmino (+260), Divock Origi (+300), Christopher Nkunku (+330), Dani Olmo (+330), Emil Forsberg (+330), Marcel Sabitzer (+330), Xherdan Shaquiri (+440), Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain (+460), Angelino (+510)

Key Injuries

Liverpool: Diego Jota “out”, Naby Keita “out”, Virgil Van Dyk “out”, Joe Gomez “out”, Joel Matip “out”, Fabinho “doubtful”

Leipzig: Dominik Szoboszlai “out”

UCL Best Odds

*Ousmane Dembele to Score* (+340) – 0.25 Units – “DraftKings Sportsbook”

DraftKings | FanDuel

The Betting Game Plan

It seems Ousmane Dembele’s goal scoring odds are coming in way higher than any of the other forwards in both matches. I am not sure that’s exactly fair. Nevertheless, given these odds, rather than roster him in DFS, it is a good way to get some exposure to him, if desired.

2/16 UCL FanDuel Rankings “Set pieces less important on FanDuel”

Forward/Midfield

1. Lionel Messi – Barcelona – $24 “Set pieces”
2. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $21
3. Christopher Nkunku – Leipzig – $14 “Share of set pieces”
4. Kylian Mbappe – PSG – $22
5. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $19
6. Yussuf Poulsen – Leipzig – $16
7. Antoine Greizmann – Barcelona – $20
8. Mauro Icardi – PSG – $19
9. Moise Kean – PSG – $17
10. Marco Verratti – PSG – $11
11. Roberto Firmino – Liverpool – $18
12. Ousmane Dembele – Barcelona – $17
13. Curtis Jones – Liverpool – $13
14. Marcel Sabitzer – Leipzig – $13
15. Dani Olmo – Leipzig – $18

Defense

1. Angelino – Leipzig – $14
2. Oscar Mingueza – Barcelona – $8
3. Lukas Klostermann – Leipzig – $8
4. Ozan Kabak – Liverpool – $8
5. Sergino Dest – Barcelona – $10
6. Dayot Upamecano – Leipzig – $11

Goalies

1. Marc ter Stegen – Barcelona – $13
2. Alisson – Liverpool – $11
3. Peter Gulacsi – Leipzig – $9

2/16 UCL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

1. Lionel Messi – Barcelona – $12,300 “Set pieces”
2. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $10,800
3. Antoine Griezmann – Barcelona – $6,900
4. Mauro Icardi – PSG – $6,300
5. Moise Kean – PSG – $5,800
6. Kylian Mbappe – PSG – $9,900
7. Christopher Nkunku – Leipzig – $8,700 “Share of set pieces”
8. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $9,300
9. Yussuf Poulsen – Leipzig – $7,300
10. Roberto Firmino – Liverpool – $6,200
11. Ousmane Dembele – Barcelona – $8,100

Midfield

1. Lionel Messi – Barcelona – $12,300 “Set pieces”
2. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $10,800
3. Antoine Griezmann – Barcelona – $6,900
4. Christopher Nkunku – Leipzig – $8,700 “Share of set pieces”
5. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $9,300
6. Emil Forsberg – Leipzig – $5,200 “Not currently projected to start”
7. Pablo Sarabia – PSG – $7,000
8. Roberto Firmino – Liverpool – $6,200
9. Ousmane Dembele – Barcelona – $8,100
10. Dani Olmo – Leipzig – $5,600
11. Marcel Sabitzer – Leipzig – $5,900
12. Curtis Jones – Liverpool – $4,900
13. Jordan Henderson – Liverpool – $4,000 “only if not a center back”

Defense

1. Angelino – Leipzig – $6,400 “Share of set pieces”
2. Sergino Dest – Barcelona – $4,400
3. Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $6,700 “Share of set pieces”
4. Andy Robertson – Liverpool – $5,900 “Share of set pieces”
5. Nordi Mukiele – Leipzig – $4,000
6. Jordi Alba – Barcelona – $5,400
7. Layvin Kurzawa – PSG – $4,200
8. Oscar Mingueza – Barcelona – $3,200
9. Dayot Upamecano – Leipzig – $2,900
10. Ozan Kabak – Liverpool – $2,900

Goalies

1. Marc-Andre ter Stegen – Barcelona – $5,000
2. Alisson – Liverpool – $5,100
3. Peter Gulacsi – Leipzig – $4,400

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