Tuesday 12/1 UCL DFS and Best Bet

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This article focuses on 12/1 UCL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.

Tuesday 12/1 UCL Slate and DFS Gameplan

It’s time for Matchweek 5/6 of the Champion’s League Group Stages with a six game slate beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.

A couple of teams already have their spots in the Round of Sixteen all locked up. However, at least this week, only Bayern Munich has actually clinched their group’s top spot. As a result, they are the only team with nothing to play for and should be resting starters.

Note: Projected starters are highlighted in bold. Goal odds of all potential starters are included, but if a player is not in the starting lineup, disregard his scoring odds.

Atalanta (-560)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Duvan Zapata (-177), Luis Muriel (-139), Joseph Illicic (-132), Alejandro Gomez (-108), Remo Freuler (+188)

Atalanta is the biggest favorite on the slate by quite a lot. Their attacking players will be cash game staples.

Alejandro Gomez and Duvan Zapata will likely be the chalkiest but be sure not to sleep on Joseph Illicic if in! If not, Luis Muriel has fairly high goal scoring odds as well.

Man City (-162)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Gabriel Jesus (+135), Raheem Sterling (+160), Kevin De Bruyne (+195), Riyad Mahrez (+205), Phil Foden (+220), Fernan Torres (+220), Bernardo Silva (+325)

We will just have to see how the lineup shakes out here. Phil Foden has had the hot hand and Torres has been slowly coming along. Riyad Mahrez is coming off a hat trick this weekend, but is not projected to start. Kevin De Bruyne remains a strong play, as always.

Liverpool (-148)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Mohammed Salah (-110), Sadio Mane (+118), Diego Jota (+125), Divock Origi (+185), Robert Firmino (+195), Dusan Tadic (+240)

Liverpool has been fairly disappointing over the last week. First, losing at home to Atalanta 2-0 in the Champion’s League and then a 1-1 tie over the weekend against Brighton. If Diego Jota is in, he would be my favorite play from this team as he is red hot and scoring all their goals. However, in terms of stacking, they are a fairly hard team to trust at the moment.

Atletico Madrid (-120)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Joao Felix (+160), Angelo Correa (+235), Yannick Carrasco (+285), Marcos Llorente (+360)

Atletico Madrid was probably the most disappointing of any team last week. They were as big as a -560 favorite as of game time against Lokomotiv Moscow, only to put up a scoreless draw.

They have a chance to bounce back here against a Bayern Munich squad likely resting players with nothing to play for. Luis Suarez and Diego Costa are not in the match squad, making the Atletico lineup a bit more predictable.

Inter Milan (+120) at Gladbach (+205)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Romelu Lukaku (+110), Lautaro Martinez (+150), Alexis Sanchez (+170), Marcus Thuram (+200), Alassane Plea (+200), Breel Embolo (+210), Ivan Perisic (+255), Lars Stindl (+260), Patrick Hermann (+275)

I had mentioned how Atletico Madrid was disappointing last week. As for Inter Milan, their game turned out to be a total disaster, as well. First, they allowed an early penalty and then Arturo Vidal got a red card for cursing out the referee, leading to a loss against Real Madrid.

They will have a tough game here against a resilient Gladbach team. The Germans will finally be returning forward Alassane Plea “pronounced like Play-a” and will be at full strength.

Olympiakos (+230) at Marseille (+130)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Dario Benedetto (+175), Florian Thauvin (+180), Dmitri Payet (+265)

This group continues to churn out some bad games. With this one, the trend continues, as outside goaltenders and cheap defenders, there is not a lot to target. It would be amazing if we had diminutive Olympiakos midfielder Mathieu Valbuena, who is all of a sudden half price on DraftKings at $5,400. Unfortunately, he is out injured.

Marseille has a shot at their first win of UCL, but Olympiakos plays slow, grinding defense. Their attackers are really cheap on DraftKings, if looking for a very contrarian large field flyer.

12/1 UCL Best Bet

Atalanta and Man City (-110 total) DraftKings Sportsbook – 1.75 Units*

DraftKings | FanDuel

The Betting Game Plan

With so few huge favorites, this is one of the tougher UCL slates to bet on. However, we can lock in Atalanta and beyond that, since it is hard to trust Liverpool right now, let’s roll with Man City. Perhaps famous last words, but I guess we will find out.

12/1 UCL FanDuel Rankings

Forward/Midfield

• 1. Duvan Zapata – Atalanta – $19
• 2. Alejandro Gomez – Atalanta – $17 “Set pieces”
• 3. Joseph Illicic – Atalanta – $18
• 4. Luis Muriel – Atalanta – $14 “Not currently projected to start”
• 5. Kevin De Bruyne – Man City – $23 “Set pieces”
• 6. Phil Foden – Man City – $15
• 7. Diego Jota – Liverpool – $18 “Not currently projected to start”
• 8. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $22
• 9. Romelu Lukaku – Inter Milan – $19
• 10. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $20
• 11. Gabriel Jesus – Man City – $20 “Not currently projected to start”
• 12. Raheem Sterling – Man City – $21
• 13. Ferran Torres – Man City – $17
• 14. Joao Felix – Atletico Madrid – $16
• 15. Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan – $18
• 16. Alassane Plea – Gladbach – $17
• 17. Marcus Thuram – Gladbach – $15
• 18. Lars Stindl – Gladbach – $14
• 19. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $18 “Some set pieces”
• 20. Yannick Carrasco – Atletico Madrid – $8
• 21. Eric Choupo-Moting – $7
• 22. Stefano Sensi – Inter Milan – $6 “Some set pieces”

Defense “PUNT”

• 1. Malang Sarr – Porto – $6
• 2. Rafael Toloi – Atalanta – $7
• 3. Daniel Hoegh – Midtjylland – $5
• 4. Alessandro Bastoni – Inter Milan – $7
• 5. Wilson Manafa – Porto – $7

Goalies

1. Marco Sportiello – Atalanta – $14
2. Jose Sa – Olympiakos – $8
3. Alexander Nubel – Bayern Munich – $5

12/1 UCL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

1. Duvan Zapata – Atalanta – $9,100
2. Joseph Illic – Atalanta – $8,600
3. Luis Muriel – Atalanta – $8,100 “Not currently projected to start”
4. Diego Jota – Liverpool – $9,200 “Not currently projected to start”
5. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,700
6. Romelu Lukaku – Inter Milan – $8,000
7. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $8,900
8. Gabriel Jesus – Manchester City – $8,700 “Not currently projected to start”
9. Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – $8,100
10. Joao Felix – Atletico Madrid – $8,000
11. Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan – $6,900
12. Leroy Sane – Bayern Munich – $6,800
13. Thomas Muller – Bayern Munich – $6,100
14. Riyad Mahrez – Manchester City – $7,200 “Not currently projected to start”
15. Lars Stindl – Gladbach – $9,000 “Set pieces”
16. Marcus Thuram – Gladbach – $7,900
17. Alassane Plea – Gladbach – $9,400
18. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $8,300 “Some set pieces”
19. Douglas Costa – Bayern Munich – $5,800 “Some set pieces”
20. Dario DeBenedetto – Marseille – $4,000
21. Eric Choupo-Moting – Bayern Munich – $4,700

Midfield

• 1. Alejandro Gomez – Atalanta – $9,800 “set pieces”
• 2. Kevin De Bruyne – Manchester City – $10,200 “set pieces”
• 3. Joseph Illicic – Atalanta – $8,600 “Not currently projected to start”
• 4. Remo Freuler – Atalanta – $4,200
• 5. Phil Foden – Manchester City – $8,400
• 6. Ferran Torres – Manchester City – $6,900
• 7. Marcelo Brozovic – Inter Milan – $4,000 “Not currently projected to start”
• 8. Nicolo Barella – Inter Milan – $4,300
• 9. Diego Jota – Liverpool – $9,200 “Not currently projected to start”
• 10. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,700

Defense

• 1. Benjamin Pavard – Bayern Munich – $3,900
• 2. Neco Williams – Liverpool – $4,400
• 3. Tanguy Nianzou – Bayern Munich – $2,600
• 4. Andy Robertson – Liverpool – $6,200 “Set pieces”
• 5. Milan Skriniar – Inter Milan – $3,100
• 6. Any cheap PUNT

Goalies

1. Marco Sportiello – Atalanta – $5,800
2. Ederson – Man City – $5,500
3. Jose Sa – Olympiakos – $4,500

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