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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

The MLB SWEET SPOT 9/5/22: DFS and PROP BETS at Win Daily Sports

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Happy Labor Day to all our Win Daily subscribers! I posted bets and props over the weekend on WinDaily Discord Chat (MLB Research) and kept the hot streak going with a 9-2 record. That gives us an 18-3 start to September in just 4 days with a +14.3 unit return. We all know it will turn the other way soon so just stay the course and don’t press.

There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

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For DFS, the featured card begins tonight at 6:40 pm with 6 games to choose from. It is a split card today with several afternoon games. I’ll give out my featured card DFS plays below and the bets/props will be from both the day and nights games.

NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +69.1 units

PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 6:40 PM Start

TRISTON MCKENZIE ($10,700 DK) – We’ve hit a new peak for McKenzie and it does make some sense based upon the lack of pitching depth on this slate. The Guardians pitcher has been really good over the past two months posting a 2.23 ERA and striking out 76. He has been considerably better at home in that stretch, posting a 1.75 ERA in Cleveland. However, he’s still had solid starts on the road including his last two in Seattle and Toronto. So the bigger reason to consider the Guardians RHP is because of his matchup tonight with a weaker opponent.

McKenzie has two outings this year against Kansas City and has a 2.00 ERA. Both matchups have been in KC, so there will be familiarity with the mound and venue. His biggest issue has been walks as he has issued 7 in just 9 innings versus KC. But that is a big aberration as the Royals are 21st in BB rate this season at just 7.7%. Which shows that is more of an adjustment for McKenzie and one he can easily make. And while KC has been better at the plate of late, they are still a middle of the road offense and one that I believe McKenzie can attack.

ANDREW HEANEY ($9600 DK) – Since returning to the Dodgers rotation in late July, all he’s done is struck out batters. On the season he has an astounding 13.5 K/9 inning and 35.4% K rate. To put that in perspective, Shohei Ohtani leads the majors in both categories at 11.9 K/9 inning and 33% K rate. If Heaney, pitched enough innings he would be the season leader over true strikeout pitchers like Ohtani, Cease, Rodon, Cole and Burnes. It is surprising that he is keeping up this high rate. But it is something we are aware of and looking to ride until batters adjust. Especially with tonight’s matchup against SF, who are striking out the 4th highest in the MLB since August 22nd. Additionally, they are 8th in K rate against LHP’s this season. Looks like a great matchup for our “strike out king”.

KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)

JOSE SUAREZ ($7000 DK): The Angles lefty has value tonight because of his matchup with the Tigers. Suarez can have issues with walks but the Tigers are 29th in the MLB in BB rate vs LHPs. Plus, the Tigers on the road are 28th in BA, 20th in wOBA and 30th in wRC+. Add in the fact that Suarez has been good in his past 6 starts, averaging 19.6 DK points, and you have an opportunity for good value tonight in LA.

BONUS PICK: I do like BLAKE SNELL ($10,200 DK) tonight against the D’Backs and BRADY SINGER ($8700 DK) against the Guardians. I’ve been on the Lance Lynn train as well of late and see value in the righty but I’m going to tread carefully here as Seattle has been playing well.

HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE6:40 PM

MOOKIE BETTS ($6500 DK) – The Dodgers star OF is making a big case for NL MVP as his slash line is 0.284/0.351/0.571. He also has 33 home runs which is a career high. Tonight, he gets to face Logan Webb who he is 8 for 17 in his career against.

JOSE ALTUVE ($4800 DK) – The Astros 2B is hot as he is hitting 0.419 over his past 11 games. He also has success off Rangers SP Martin Perez as his batting average is 0.296 in 54 career at-bats.

SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Padres tonight. San Diego will be happy to get away from LA as they are 2-10 against the Dodgers this season. They get to face a minor league call-up tonight who is making his major league debut in Ryne Nelson. In Triple-A, Nelson has a 5.43 ERA and has allowed 25 home runs. That’s not numbers that necessarily warrant a promotion but the D’backs want to see what they have in the 2019 2nd round pick. We’ll look for batters such as Profar, Cronenworth, Soto, Machado and Grisham to stack against this soft matchup.

SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)LESS THAN $3K

BUBBA THOMPSON ($2700 DK): We’re going with the Rangers OF who has quietly averaged 6.7 DK points over the past 2.5 weeks. He gets to face a pitcher making his first start as well in Hunter Brown.

MLB PROP BETS

(DAY GAME) CHRIS ARCHER over 1.5 BBs (-130 DK) – The Twins pitcher has issued 45 walks this season. His walk rate is 11% which would be good for 1st in MLB if he qualified with enough innings. Conversely, the Yankees lead the league in BB% at 10%.

(DAY GAME) CARDINALS over 2.5 runs F5 (-115 DK)

ANDREW HEANEY over 6.5 K’s (-125 DK)

HOUSTON ASTROS over 3.5 runs (-140 CAESERS) – Martin Perez has allowed 12 runs to the Astros in 2 starts during the month of August.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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