We ended August with a huge month. Bets and props posted here were 93-57-1 (62%) on the month and we posted a +30.6 units return. And we rolled right into September by posting a 3-1 record yesterday in Discord (+1.8 units). If you ever don’t see bets here, make sure to check the MLB Research Room in Discord for my daily plays/leans.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 13 games to choose from. The pitching is deep but there are a few arms that standout based on matchups. Below are my favorite DFS and Props/Bets for today.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +56.6 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SANDY ALCANTARA ($10,300 DK) – Alcantara raised some concerns in August with his two road starts. In those games, he allowed 10 ER’s over 11.1 innings. But it was to the Phillies and Dodgers who are both top 10 offenses in the MLB. However, his last start totally calmed all DFS players as he pitched a complete game gem versus the Dodgers in Miami racking up 10 K’s and 40 DK points. Tonight, he does face another top 10 offense on the road, but I have a little more confidence in Sandy against the Braves based on his last outing and his numbers against Atlanta this year.
The Marlins ace is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA against the Braves in 2022. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s thrown one CG against ATL and posted 21 strikeouts in 17 innings. He’s in play tonight as Alcantara is trying to finish the season strong and secure the NL Cy Young Award.
DUSTIN MAY ($10,100 DK) – Dustin May is starting his 3rd game this season after returning from 13 months away due to Tommy John surgery. The numbers are good as he’s only allowed 2 ER’s and has a 1.64 ERA over his first 2 starts. However, they were both against Miami who is one of the worst hitting teams over the past month. Tonight, he gets a test in San Diego who is 12th in wOBA and wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. The salary is too high for me especially since May will likely be limited to 90 pitches or less. Plus there are better options available on the slate.
CHARLIE MORTON ($9,300 DK) – Speaking of the Marlins and their bad offense, that’s exactly who Charlie Morton gets to face tonight. Since August 1st, Miami has scored 62 runs which is last in the MLB and 32 runs less than anyone else. Overall, they averaged just 2.2 runs per game in August. Add in the fact they are 30th in batting (0.196), wOBA and wRC+ and we have a favorable matchup for anyone starting against Miami. But Charlie Morton isn’t anyone and has pitched very well over the past 2.5 months sporting a 2.93 ERA in his last 13 starts. Additionally, he is 10th in the MLB in K’s with 168. We have a hot pitcher with high K potential versus the worst offense in the MLB over the past month. This makes him one of the best pitchers on the board tonight.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
DOMINGO GERMAN ($6900 DK): The Yankees starting pitcher had a 2.08 ERA in August trimming an 8.22 ERA to 3.19. He’s not a high strikeout pitcher which is why he dips to this range. But he did average 17.2 DK points over his last 5 starts which provides us some decent value at his price tag. His ceiling is low, but he has 3x potential which makes taking a flyer on German even more palatable.
BONUS PICK: I do like JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($9200 DK) tonight against the Cubs and LANCE MCCULLERS ($8800DK) against the Angels. Jordan Montgomery hit a speed bump last game but is still 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA since being traded to STL. He’s pitched twice against the Cubs this year and is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 16 innings. That includes a CGSO two weeks ago when he registered 42.7 DK points.
As for McCullers, he’s pitched well in his first 3 starts of the season. And he’s averaged 91 pitches over his last 2 outings which means they are getting him stretched out for the playoffs. Tonight, he gets the Angels who are 22nd in the league in runs scored in August. They are also 2nd in K rate (26.5%) which makes this matchup attractive. McCullers has struggled with walks, allowing 10 in 3 starts, but the Angels are 28th in that department with a 5.6% BB rate in the last month.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
NATHANIEL LOWE ($3900 DK) – The Rangers 1B is hitting everything hard that he makes contact with. He has a 60% hard contact rate over the past 10 days. In that span he is hitting 0.400 with 4 home runs. Add to that, opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta has allowed 4 home runs in his past 3 home starts.
KETEL MARTE ($4800 DK) – Marte is 7 for 14 with 2 career homers off Brewers starting pitcher Eric Lauer. Lauer also has a 4.15 ERA on the road with 15 homers allowed. This is a sweet spot to use a hitter with good metrics off the opposing pitcher.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Red Sox tonight. Dallas Keuchel is terrible. On the season he is 2-8 with an 8.84 ERA. He’s allowed 39 ER’s in his last 7 starts alone! We’ll look for batters such as Arroyo, Pham, Verdugo, Martinez, Devers and Cordero to stack against this soft matchup.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
CORBIN CARROLL ($2100 DK): The D’backs prospect has 4 hits in his first 3 games and is averaging 11.3 DK points in those contests.
CHARLIE MORTON over 6.5 K’s (-160 DK) –
JORDAN MONTGOMERY over 16.5 outs (-125 DK) –
ALEK MANOAH over 5.5 K’s (-155 DK ) –
LANCE MCCULLERS over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK) and under 2.5 ER’s (-160 DK) – Number is not posted on DK yet but I will update once it is.
BOSTON RED SOX over 2.5 runs F5 (-130 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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