This prop is 7-3 in Pablo Lopez’s last 10 starts. He’s only allowed less than 2 ER’s in 2 of his last 10 starts.
BRYCE HARPER over 0.5 RBI’s (+160 DK):
Harper is starting to heat up and we all want to get in on that ride sooner than later. He has 4 RBI’s and 2 home runs in his last 4 games. And in his career, he is batting 0.357 with 3 RBI’s off Pablo Lopez.
CARLOS CARRASCO over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK):
For the record, this is one K higher than I like. But Carrasco has gone over 5.5 K’s in 10 of his past 21 starts. Bring in the 2nd highest K rate team in the league and our chances go up exponentially that he surpasses this number.
JAMES KAPRIELIAN over 1.5 BB’s (-160 DK):
The A’s pitcher has offered at least one free pass in 18 of 20 starts this season. He has gone over 1.5 BB’s in 14 of 20 starts (70%). Taking a bet at -160 odds implies it will win 61% of the time. So we have a +9% EV on this bet without even factoring in the Astros walk rate which is good for 8th best in the MLB.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS over 4.5 runs (-135 DK):
The Cardinals have 74 runs in 14 games against the Reds this year which is good for 5.2 runs per game. Reds starter Chase Anderson has a 9.00 ERA in 4 appearances this year.
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