We had a 4-3 day at the Sweet Spot yesterday but had a net 0 unit day. We are now 88-53-1 on the month and +30.6 units. We’ll aim to close these last day of August with a bang as there are several juicy matchups on the slate for today.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 9 games to choose from. Jason and I broke down the card last night and you can see that analysis in the video above. There are day games today so keep an eye on that with the props and bets we are playing. Below are my favorite DFS and Props/Bets for today.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +54.8 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
JACOB DEGROM ($11,500 DK) – Beware of aces on the slate as the last 3 have been rocked. But DeGrom is no normal ace as the things he does are simply super-human. Coming off two injuries that cost him the first 4 months of the season, he has come in firing with an average fastball velocity of 99.3 mph which is the highest of his career. Tonight, he faces the Dodgers who he hasn’t pitched against since 2019. And while we tend to fade pitchers against LA’s potent offense, that is not the case with an ace like DeGrom. There are strikeouts in this lineup as the Dodgers are 12th in the MLB in K rate in August (18th on the season). Plus, projected batters have a 29% K rate and 29.4% whiff rate against the Mets ace.
Lastly, the Dodgers are a much different team on the road as they bat just 0.249 away from LA (compared to 0.326 at home). Aces such as Alcantara (CG, 10 K’s, 1 ER), Burnes (5.2 inn, 6 K’s, W) and Fried all have had success against the Dodgers when they were on the road.
GERRITT COLE ($10,800 DK) – Gerritt Cole is an ace but far from an auto start each time out. However, tonight he faces the Angels who are 29th in batting average, wOBA and wRC+ since July 1st. They also lead the league in K rate in that span at 27.4%. And as far as Cole goes, he’s been more effective on the road as he’s 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA away from NY. But his walk rate does increase slightly and his K rate has a drop. So that’s the reason I have Cole listed below DeGrom even though he has the weaker LA team tonight. He’s still a go in several of my rosters and I may even pair him with DeGrom in some lineups.
LANCE LYNN ($8000 DK) – The hefty righty from Chicago toes the rubber tonight against the Royals. And the good news is he’s pitching in Chi-Town as his splits are much better at home. In his last 4 home starts he has a 2.66 ERA with 29 K’s in 23.2 innings. Over that span he has averaged 24.3 DK points which has been well above his season average of 14.8. He’s facing the Royals tonight who are 21st in batting, 21st in wOBA and 22nd in wRC+ over the past 2 weeks. I see potential for Lynn to continue his home success tonight against a light hitting Royals lineup.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
BAILEY FALTER ($7100 DK): I don’t love anyone in this range but if there is one pitcher I’ll consider it’s Bailey Falter. Falter is making another spot start for the Phillies based upon injuries to their staff. In his last 3 starts, he’s averaged 6 innings and 5.7 K’s. In those starts he has put up 20.1 DK points per outing. Arizona has been hot this week but there is a value with Falter based on his recent performances.
BONUS PICK: I do like KYLE WRIGHT ($9800 DK) tonight against the Rockies. Wright is tied for the league in wins with 16. And in his last start out he wielded a gem throwing 7 innings and allowing 0 ER’s against the Pirates which was good for 34 DK points. The Rockies are a good opponent to attack on the road as they’ve scored just 11 runs in their past 5 road games.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
AARON JUDGE ($6500 DK) – The Yankees slugger has 5 home runs in his past 8 games. He’s averaging 19.9 DK points in those contests. He’s never faced Patrick Sandoval but is batting 0.353 with 3 home runs off Angels pitching this year.
SALVADOR PEREZ ($4800 DK) – We started Perez here last night and it paid off. He now has a 7 game hitting streak coming into tonight’s contest with the White Sox. In that span, he is batting 0.500 with 2 home runs and 9 RBI’s. Additionally, he hits White Sox starter Lance Lynn well as he has 2 career homers off the RHP.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Braves again tonight. They failed us last night but we’ll go back to the well one more time. The Braves saw Rockies starter Ryan Feltner once this year and put up 6 runs in just 3 innings off the righty. We’ll look for batters such as Harris, Swanson, Olson, Riley, D’Arnaud and Grissom tonight as their team has one of the most favorable matchup on the board.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
SANTIAGO ESPINAL ($3000 DK):
MLB PROP BETS
(DAY GAME) JOE MUSGROVE under 18.5 outs (-130 DK) – Musgrove has pitched 3 games versus SF this year and gone 7 innings in each start. However, he’s only gone over 18.5 outs in 7 of his other 20 outings. I believe there is value in going under here as the Giants are hitting better of late and will need to plan a different attack against a pitcher they’ve scored just 1 run against this year.
(DAY GAME) TRISTAN MCKENZIE over 18.5 outs (+115 DK) – The Guardians starter has not thrown less than 6 innings in a home game since April 20th. In that span he’s averaging 6.2 innings (8 starts). He threw a game against Baltimore this year and went 7 innings.
(EARLY GAME) PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT over 0.5 Home Runs (+220 DK), over 1.5 bases (-120 DK), over 0.5 RBI’s (+110 DK) –
DODGERS & METS NRFI (-155 DK ) –
JACOB DEGROM over K’s – Number is not posted on DK yet but I will update once it is.
ATLANTA BRAVES over 2.5 runs F5 (-130 DK)
PATRICK SANDOVAL over 1.5 BBs (-165 DK) –
GERRIT COLE under 2.5 earned runs (-160 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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