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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

The MLB SWEET SPOT 8/24/22: DFS and PROP BETS at Win Daily Sports

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Hector Neris allowing 2 meaningless runs in the 9th made us push a game we had every business winning here at the Sweet Spot. But that’s the breaks and yesterday’s record was 3-3-1 with a -0.6 unit return. We are now 66-47-1 on the month and +15.6 units.

There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

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For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 8 games to choose from. There are day games today but this article will only feature the night card.

NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +39.7 units

PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start

SHANE MCCLANAHAN ($10,900 DK) – I still have concerns with Shane McClanahan and his dip in velocity and movement. I think we could be seeing a dead arm which is always concerning heading into September and October. But he has managed to adjust in his past two outings by going 13 innings and allowing just 4 ER’s. He racked up 8 K’s in his last outing which was a good sign as well since he had just 11 K’s in his previous 3 starts combined.

But the big reason I do like McClanahan at some level is because of his opponent. The Angels are at the bottom of the league in every hitting category this year. And they lead the MLB in K rate striking out 26% of the time. LAA is on a 4 game losing streak and have scored just 2 runs in this series. It’s a good matchup for a pitcher trying to feel his way through the end of the season.

FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,000 DK) – Valdez has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league this year. He has 20 straight outings that have resulted in a Quality Start (6 innings or more and 3 ER’s or less). In fact he leads this league in QS’s with 21 overall. Tonight he faces the Twins who are 23rd in the month of August in runs scored. They, like the Angels, are also on a 4 game losing streak where they’ve scored just 6 runs. Overall, they are just 9-11 in August and have seen a 2.5 game division lead turn to a 3 game deficit. This isn’t a team hitting well enough to end Valdez’s streak so he will be in play for me tonight and I actually like him slightly more than McClanahan.

ZAC GALLEN ($9500 DK) – This next tier is where it gets tricky. But I’m aiming my sights on the highest potential on the card and to me that’s Zac Gallen. The Diamondbacks ace is on an impressive streak as over his past 3 outings he has 21.1 innings pitched with 26 K’s and an ERA of 0.00. In those 3 starts, he’s averaged 35 DK points per outing. He’s facing the Royals who in the month of August are 26th in wOBA and 25th in WRC+. Additionally, their K rate has spiked to 23.8% this month (21.5% on the season) showing their current lineup has good strikeout potential.

KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)

CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($5500 DK): I prefer to stack a top arm with a pitcher in the $8000 to $9500 range tonight. But if I dip below the value line, I will consider Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies. Sanchez is making a spot start and it will be his 3rd this season. In his previous two starts, he has gone 8 innings allowing just 2 ER’s and striking out 3. THe K value may not show to date (6.9 K/9 inning) but he is facing the Reds. Cincinnati is 3rd in the month of August in K rate against LHP’s as they are striking out 28.5% of the time. We’re just looking for 13-15 DK points to hit good value and the path is there based on opponent and his one start against Washington where he recorded 16.9 DK points.

BONUS PICK: I do like MILES MIKOAS ($7900 DK) tonight against the Cubs tonight. Mikolas has seemed to work out his issues as he has 2 straight outings of 8 innings pitched. In those starts he averaged 26.6 DK points. He has facd the Cubs three times this year and had moderate success. The Cubs are 29th in wOBA and wRC+ in the month of August and are in the top 10 in K rate.

HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE7:05 PM

GEORGE SPRINGER ($6000 DK) – George Springer is hitting 0.600 over the past 7 games. He has a 7 game hitting streak and recorded double digit DK points in 4 of those games. Tonight he faces Bryan Bello who comes back up from the Minors. In his one start against the Jays this year he allowed 9 hits and 5 ER’s in 4 innings.

ALEX VERDUGO ($3500 DK) – While Verdugo is hitless in his last 2 games, he did have 10 hits in his previous 5. So his recent form checks the box. And his past performance against Jays starter makes this play more intriguing as he is 5 for 11 with a home run off the Jays starter.

SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Blue Jays tonight. As mentioned prior, Bryan Bello is starting for the Red Sox and he owns a hefty 8.47 ERA. The Jays are coming off a night where they scored 9 runs in Boston. To polarize that even more, they’ve scored 49 runs in their last 4 games in Beantown. Look for hitters like Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, Hernandez, Chapman and Bichette. To soften the high salaries also look at Jackie Bradley or Tapia.

SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)LESS THAN $3K

NICK MATON ($3000 DK): The Phillies scored 7 runs in the final 3 innings of last night’s game against the Reds. Maton ended up providing the game winning hit in the bottom of the 9th which should help him get a spot in the lineup tonight. He’s hitting 0.345 on the season and averaging 8.6 DK points. This is a sweet spot for a lefty with a sweet swing.

MLB PROP BETS

ZAC GALLEN over 5.5 K’s (-130 DK)

FRAMBER VALDEZ over 18.5 outs (-105 DK)

LUCAS GIOLITO over 1.5 BB’s (+100 DK) – Lucas Giolito has started 12 games on the road this year. In 10 of those, he’s issued at least 2 walks. I like these odds tonight for the White Sox pitcher to continue his free pass trend away from home.

PHILLIES to not bat in bottom 9 (-165 DK)

HOUSTON ASTROS -2 runs (-120 DK) – The Astros have lost Verlander’s last 2 starts. But prior to that they won 7 straight games in which he started. All of those games were won by 2 runs or more.

MILES MIKOLAS under 2.5 earned runs (-105 DK)

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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