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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

The MLB SWEET SPOT 7/27/22: DFS and PROP BETS at Win Daily Sports

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We hit a bump in the road early this weeks with our props and bets but still sitting at a good number for the month with a 35-23 record. Today brings us a split slate but we see some value all over the card and bring you that analysis below.

There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

For DFS, the classic card night time slate begins at 6:40 pm with 5 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.

NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +27.2 units

PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 6:40 PM Start

KEVIN GAUSMAN ($9300 DK) – Gausman has started to regain his early season form. Since tweaking his ankle in a game against the Rays on July 2nd, he’s pitched two effective games. In those starts he’s registered 16 K’s over 11 innings and averaged 20.6 DK points. Gausman has a solid ERA of 3.00 but his predictive measures are a 1.98 FIP and 2.73 xFIP. Most of that is projecting his BABIP of 0.378 start to regress as the league average is closer to 0.290. If that is the case, we can see Gausman projects for a big 2nd half. His K rate is well above league average (27.8%) and walk rate is well below league average (4.3%) which are both key metrics in projecting performance.

Tonight, he faces the St Louis Cardinals who are without several key position players because they were not allowed to make the trip to Canada. That reduced lineup was able to plate 3 runs off Jose Berrios last night but they only registered one extra-base hit (a HR from Dylan Carlson). I like Gausman in this matchup and especially due to his recent uptick in performance.

LUIS CASTILLO ($8900 DK) – Luis Castillo has been dominant in his last 4 starts as he has thrown 27 innings and allowed just 3 ER’s (1.00 ERA). In those 4 starts he has racked up 33 K’s and averaged 27.4 DK points per outing. He is definitely auditioning for several teams as he is one of the blue chips on the trade market and the deadline is fast approaching. Tonight, he faces the Marlins who have scored just 4 runs in the first two games of their series. In fact, the Marlins have scored the 2nd least runs in the MLB since July 1st with just 66 runs. They are 29th in wOBA and wRC+ and 30th in ISO in that same stretch. Looks like a perfect opponent for Castillo to raise the price for his services and continue his recent dominance.

KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)

TYLER WELLS ($5800 DK): The last time we recommended an arm in this range, Zack Greinke went out and put up 18.9 DK points and provided a 3x return on his salary. Tonight, we look to repeat that performance with Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wells. Wells has faced tonight’s opponent, Tampa Bay, three times this year and has progressively gotten better in each start. His last performance had him go 5.2 innings while allowing just 3 ER’s and registering 6 K’s. While Tampa has hit RHP’s well this season, they have just 4 runs in the first 2 games this series.

The recent losses of Kiermaier and Zunino have put a large dent in a lineup that was already without Wander Franco. All we need is 10+ DK points to give us value and free up cash to spend on hitters. And I think that is highly possible against a Rays lineup that is now struggling.

BONUS PICK: N/A

HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM

VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR ($5200 DK) – The Blue Jays 1B is hot as he carries a 7 game hitting streak into tonight’s game versus the Cardinals. In that stretch he has averaged 11 DK points per game. The Blue Jays have scored 50 runs in 4 games since the break and think they will continue their hot streak tonight.

FRANCISCO LINDOR ($5000K) – Don’t look now but Lindor has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games. He has 3 home runs and 10 runs scored in that stretch. And tonight, he faces Yankees starter Domingo German who has started 1 game this year and has a 15.00 ERA.

SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack Mets hitters tonight based on their past success against Domingo German as well as their recent success at the plate. First, in the past 2 games the Mets offense has scored 14 runs on 22 hits. Secondly, their projected lineup has a 0.323 batting average against German in 36 plate appearances. Look at hitters like Alonso, McNeil, Nimmo, Canha and Marte in a stack.

SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)LESS THAN $3K

NOLAN JONES ($2300 DK): We’re going back to someone that has fared well for us in this spot. And that is Nolan Jones from the Guardians. Just last night against the Red Sox he hit a home run and recorded 18 DK points. Remember, Red Sox starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi started the infamous 28-5 game last week against the Jays. So he’s not exactly coming into this one brimming with confidence.

MLB PROP BETS

CORBIN BURNES over 7.5 K’s (-140) – Burnes’s strikeout totals at home are much higher than his road numbers. He averages 8.5 K’s at home and has 5 games of 10+ K’s in Miller Park.

LUIS CASTILLO over 5.5 K’s (-150 DK)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS over 4 runs (-170 DK) – Wainwright’s road ERA is almost 3 runs higher than it is at home (4.81 vs 2.01). And the Jays are the hottest hitting team in the league right now.

ROYALS not to bat in bottom of 9th (+100 DK) Seriously, the Angels starting pitcher is named Junk.

HOUSTON ASTROS over 3.5 runs (-140 DK)

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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