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The MLB SWEET SPOT 7/15/22: DFS and PROP BETS at Win Daily Sports



Thursday was good as we had another winning day going 4-2 with posted bets/props here at WinDaily (11-6 on the week, 30-17 in July). We also were strong in DFS as the aces hit (Burnes & Rodon) plus Tristan McKenzie was the top arm on the board.

There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

The night slate starts a 7:05 pm with 13 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.

NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +30.7 units



CLAYTON KERSHAW ($9400 DK) – There are a few pitchers with higher salaries than Kershaw but to me he is the ace on the board for Friday. First, his recent form looks fantastic as he is averaging 32.6 DK points in his last 2 starts. The most important thing in those starts is that he’s averaged 7.1 innings and 100 pitches. So it’s clear the injury is long behind him and he has no set limitations.

Secondly, he’s facing the Angels which is a team that we are attacking as of late. They are ranked last in almost every offensive category in July including batting average, slugging and OPS. They are a little better against LHP’s, but they haven’t fared well versus Kershaw as they have a career batting average of 0.119 off the Dodgers ace. Based off his recent play and the Angels lack of hitting success, I really think there is 3x value or more for this matchup tonight.

ROBBIE RAY ($9800 DK) – Robbie Ray is my second favorite arm tonight as he comes into the game against Texas on a hot streak. Over his last 6 starts he has a 0.91 ERA and has averaged 8 K’s. He has finally settled into his new home and Seattle and flashed his Cy-Young form. Tonight, he faces Texas who he saw earlier this season. In that game, he threw 6.2 innings and allowed just 2 ER’s. While Texas is in good form of late, they are susceptible to hard throwing lefties. Pitchers like Framber Valdez, Nestor Cortes and Jeffrey Springs all had success (and 7+ K’s) against the Rangers. The Mariners had their win streak extended last night and I believe Ray will keep his hot streak going too while also providing high value in DFS.


IAN ANDERSON ($6600 DK): Ian Anderson has struggled to get it together this season. But he has flashed some signs of progress over his last 2 starts. He has thrown 10.1 innings and allowed just 3 ER’s in those two starts helping lower his season ERA below 5.00. In his last start he did face these same Nationals that he is seeing tonight. He threw 5.2 innings and allowed just 2 hits and 2 ER’s. So while we’re looking below the $7K range, Anderson has the best potential to exceed his projected value.

BONUS PICK: I like JOSE URQUIDY ($8000 DK) tonight against the A’s. Urquidy just faced the A’s and went 8 innings and recorded 17 DK points. He has 5 straight starts of 6+ innings and 2x value on his salary. Versus a bad Oakland team, I believe that continues again tonight.



JULIO RODRIGUEZ ($4200 DK) – Rodriguez has a hit in 14 of his last 16 games. Tonight he faces a bullpen arm in Matt Bush and the lefty Taylor Hearn who is returning from a stink in the minors. Both are very vulnerable and I like Rodriguez to continue his recent tear (hitting 0.280 with 9 home runs since June 1).

XANDER BOGAERTS ($5500K) – Bogaerts is 15 of 31 for a 0.484 batting average off Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery. He’s also 7th in the MLB with a 0.317 batting average. In particular, he mashes lefties as he has a 0.377 average against them this season.

SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to look at the Braves tonight as they face off against Patrick Corbin and his 5.70 ERA. Corbin has 10.2 innings against the Braves this season and has allowed 10 ER’s. Look for players such as Riley, Acuna, Ozuna, Swanson, Rosario and Arcia.


NOLAN JONES ($2000 DK): Keep an eye on Nolan Jones. He left the game early last night but if he’s able to play tonight he gets Drew Hutchinson who has a 4.08 ERA.


SANDY ALCANTARA over 20.5 outs (-200 DK) and over 6.5 K’s (+105)

ATLANTA BRAVES over 2.5 runs F5 (-120 DK)

PITTSBURGH PIRATES over 4.5 runs (-140 DK)

CLAYTON KERSHAW over 17.5 outs (-185 DK) and over 6.5 K’s (-145 DK) –

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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