We are coming off another profitable night as we went 4-2 on Tuesday and are 7-3 overall this week. Seeing two lefties, Cortes and Manaea, go under their totals was a big help towards a positive night. Tonight, has a slate with a balanced set of arms which will make decisions tough when rostering two SP’s.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
The classic card for tonight starts a 7:05 pm with 9 games to choose from. My favorite plays for today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +23.3 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
CARLOS RODON ($10,200 DK) – One of my mantra’s of the 2022 season has been avoid playing LHP’s versus Atlanta. And tonight is no different as I’m going to fade Carlos Rodon. In the month of June, Atlanta is in the top 3 in all major hitting categories against lefties: batting average, OPS, Slugging, ISO, wOBA and wRC. Additionally, Rodon fairs much worse on the road as his ERA is 3.38 which is 1.2 runs higher than his numbers at home. His K numbers are also down away from home which impacts his ability to drive up DFS numbers. In all, this is a pass for me.
ERIC LAUER ($9800 DK) – Eric Lauer has been a significantly different pitcher in his last 5 starts than he was in his first 7. And it all really started with an outing against St Louis as he went just 5 innings and scored only 8.2 DK points back on May 26th. The problem has been rooted in his propensity to allow the longball. Over his past 2 starts alone, he has given up 6 home runs to up his season total to 14.
But here’s the good news and the reason I am going to roster Lauer tonight. First off, the Cardinals are 26th in ISO against LHP’s in June. More importantly, they are last in home runs with just 1 in 146 at-bats. And Lauer is a completely different pitcher at home as he has an ERA of 1.04 which is 4 runs lower than his road ERA. So I’m taking into account a team that hasn’t mashed lefties of late (and they could be without Goldschmidt again) and a pitcher that is significantly better at home than on the road.
SHOHEI OHTANI ($8500 DK) – We continue to get Ohtani priced in the $8K range which is surprising based on his recent form. In his last 2 outings he’s pitched 13 innings and allowed 1 ER. His opponent tonight is Kansas City who has started hitting better of late. But they are still in the bottom half of the league in all offensive categories in the month of June. And they are 22nd in the league against the fastball which is Ohtani’s primary pitch.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
GEORGE KIRBY ($6600 DK): George Kirby has the most favorable matchup on the card which automatically puts him in play for our value pitcher. What makes him more enticing is that he has averaged 97 pitches in his last 2 starts and has 10 K’s over 11 innings. Additionally, Oakland is dead last in every hitting category in June including their 0.199 batting average. They also strike out a lot (23%) and are 28th in the league against the curveball which is Kirby’s punch out pitch.
BONUS PICK: I do like PAUL BLACKBURN ($7000 DK) today against the Mariners. In his one start against Seattle this year he put up 15.8 DK points and allowed 0 ER’s.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
MIKE TROUT ($5900 DK) – Trout let us down earlier in the week against Kris Bubic but he gets another chance at a lefty tonight at the Royals trot out Daniel Lynch. Lynch has an ERA above 5.00 and has allowed 23 ER’s over his past 6 starts. And Mike Trout hits 0.351 off LHP’s.
WILLSON CONTRERAS ($5700K) – The Pirates are starting Jerad Eickhoff who had a 8.69 ERA last season. Tonight will be his first start of the season and potentially his last. Contreras has cooled of late but is sitting in the #2 hole tonight and should be able to get his bat going again off someone who is no longer a major league arm.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I like the Brewers in a stack tonight. Milwaukee’s lineup has good success against Wainwright and should be able to string together hits against the Cardinals righty. Look at batters such as McCutchen, Urias, Yellich, and Navarez.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ONEIL CRUZ ($2700 DK): As long as they keep him in this price range, we will be rostering Oneil Cruz. In 2 games so far, he’s averaging 15 DK points. He can keep that up tonight against a weak arm in Keegan Thompson.
OMAR NAVRAEZ over 0.5 hits (-185 DK) –
SHOHEI OHTANI over 6.5 Ks (+115 DK) –
ADAM WAINWRIGHT under 18.5 outs (-130 DK) –
CARLOS RODON under 7.5 Ks (-130 DK) –
NEW YORK YANKEES over 1.5 runs F5 (-140 DK) –
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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