Zak's Puck Picks

The NHL season may be on hold, but Phil “Cash with Flash” Naessens and Zak from Puck Picks are still talking hockey. Join them as they discuss handicapping tips, playoff predictions and possible NHL Futures picks for this season.

What is your first step in the NHL handicapping process?

ZAK Puck Picks: My first step in the NHL handicapping process is to take a look at the upcoming games from a neutral site, without showing any betting lines. From the slate before knowing any information, I like to write down the teams that my gut says will win before looking at any of the stats. From that point, I like to look at individual team histories in their last 10 games and record against each other in the last 2-3 seasons, as any further than that I feel are inaccurate results as teams in the NHL seem to vary quite a bit. From this point I have a pretty good idea of who are going to be the picks of the night however like sharpening a knife, it’s the finer grist stones that really get the edge sharp. I’ll save those nuggets for another post! 

Cash with Flash: The very first thing that I do is head to Vegas Insider and look at the NHL money lines. What I am looking for are favorites at either -150 or below or underdogs of +150 and below and I usually discard any team that isn’t. It’s not that I wouldn’t pick a favorite between -160 and -195, because I would but my initial move is to look for value first. 

What NHL team or situations have you looked to exploit this season?

Zak’s Puck Picks: I am a huge Devils fan, which means that this losing season has been great for me to pick against! They did. have a good stretch before the stoppage and I was on that too. Detroit has been a great team to me as well in the puck line -1.5 and even in the +1.5 the very few times, I have picked that. Jimmy Howard was an easy target for Detroit those nights. 

Cash with Flash: I’m a big fan of targeting the Red Wings and especially on the road because a 4-29 road record in the NHL is atrocious. The Devils at home were another team that I love targeting and the Buffalo Sabres on the road were profitable this season. The San Jose Sharks both home and away usually provided good value as well. The Ottawa Senators on the road were another team I liked to pick on a bit because they were/are a bad road team. 

When the NHL returns, they will likely begin with the playoffs. Of the 16 teams, which teams or series’ will you look to exploit?

Zak’s Puck Picks: This question just got more complex as there are talks of a different NHL playoff format due to ending the season early. We will look at what would happen if the playoffs started in the normal sense before we get into the speculation, however. 

The matchups in the east would look thusly: 

The NHL regular season may not have gone the way you could imagine by the status of these matchups. 

Eastern Conference

1A) Boston Bruins vs WC2) Columbus Blue Jackets

Boston went zero wins and two losses versus Columbus in their season series. With the break and chances for Columbus’s goal scorers to return from this time off, I want nothing to do with this series given its history this year. Columbus was one of three teams that handed the Bruins a home loss. Stay away!

1M) Washington Capitals vs WC1) Carolina Hurricanes

Washington and the Carolina Hurricanes tied their season series aside from an extra point that Wishing got for taking their three to two losses to overtime. Both of these teams have had issues in their defensive zone this last month or so. With Carolina getting their starting puck stopper back in Petr Mrazek I tend to lean to Carolina on the defensive side. The offense, however, is all Washington. Ranked second in the league in goals per game. Carolina is surprisingly better on the power play ranking eighth compared to Washington at thirteenth in powerplay goals per game. I would give a slight edge overall to Carolina, but not confidently. Braden Holtby seems to go to another level come playoff time. 

2A) Tampa Bay Lightning vs A3) Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto beat Tampa Bay two out of the three matchups this season, however, in those games, the Lightning outscored the Leafs eleven to nine. Puck slapper Steven Stamkos should be back for this series. Coming down to defense and goaltending I prefer the Lightning in this matchup, therefore saving the Leafs another matchup with Boston in Round 2. 

2M) Philadelphia Flyers vs M3) Pittsburgh Penguins

Philadelphia Flyers are losing their season series to the Pittsburgh Penguins two games to one being outscored eleven to seven. Pittsburgh has sustained a lot of man-games lost due to injury to significant pieces and it does not appear they will have any returning for the playoffs due to the severity of the injuries. The Flyers rank seventh in the league in both goals per game as.well as goals against per game. Impressively they are allowing the least amount of shots in the league on a game by game basis. Pittsburgh ranks tenth in goals per game and twelfth in goals against per game. Both Penguins puck stoppers were having issues in that department before the stoppage. I lean against the season series numbers here and feel confident that the depth of the Flyers’ top three lines would.be enough to send the Penguins sliding on their bellies back to the iceberg. 

Western Conference

P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs WC2)Winnipeg Jets

Vegas has been a disappointment against the Jets this season losing both games by a total score of eight to three. However, the Knights are not the top-ranked team in the West without reason. Shoring up their puck stopping adding Robin Lehner at the deadline, pairing him with a former cup winner in Marc-Andre Fleury is a deadly tandem. Vegas also got better and healthier via trade and getting healthier on the back end. The addition of Alec Martinez and the emergence of Shea Theodore really has Vegas in a good place. Winnipeg has battled with issues on their blue line all season, however many of the issues have been swallowed up by Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck (slight speculation here as nothing official, but the guy has been unreal!) I just don’t see this as being sustainable in a seven-game series against Vegas.

C1) St. Louis Blues vs WC1)Nashville Predators

In some miraculous twist of fate, the Nashville Predators have the defending Stanley Cup Champions number this season beating them in all four games played. The way Jussi Saros has played as of late, I could see this trend continuing and Nashville giving St. Louis a good run for their money. However, I can’t count out the defending Stanley Cup Champions that easily. St Louis ranked fourteenth in goals per game and third overall in powerplay goals per game, as well as fifth in fewest goals allowed per game. Nashville was sixteenth in goals per game and twentieth in goals allowed per game, with the twenty-fifth power-play goals per game. I believe that the St. Louis Blues would win this series, but it would be a tight battle. Too tight for me to put money on. 

P2) Edmonton Oilers vs P3) Calgary Flames

I will be honest, this Flames vs Oilers series is too close to my heart to judge fairly. As a handicapper, I will give it my all. This series is why I am begging for the NHL to come back. A playoff battle of Alberta with two teams that do not like each other at all. The best rivalry in sports in my humble opinion. The flames hold the edge in the season series with a three and one record. The Flames are twentieth in goals per game and sixteenth on goals against with the nineteenth ranked powerplay goals per game. Edmonton is ranked fourteenth in goals per game and fifteenth in goals against per game but first in powerplay goals per game and power-play percentage. The numbers have the edge to the Oilers, however, with Travis Harmonic and Noah Hanifin currently listed as day today, it would give the Flames their second defensive pairing back and ridiculous depth on the blue line. I think the Flames will come out on top. Call me a homer that’s fine. That game’s six goals in 2004 were on the net. Flames were 2004 Stanley Cup Champions! 

V2) Colorado Avalanche vs C3) Dallas Stars

Colorado Avalanche should be darn close to fully healthy whenever we surpass the COVID-19 scare. The Stars beat Colorado in four games this season. Dallas puck stoppers became quite suspect before the stoppage. Dallas lost seven of their last ten games, including their last six in a row. Goal scoring has been an issue for the Stars all season ranking twenty-sixth in the league, five from the bottom. Their goaltending and defense really kept them alive ranking second in the league in goals against per game as well in save percentage. I don’t know what kind of momentum will carry over if any, after the long break but hopes are for Stars fans that their goaltending returns to midseason form rather than last season. Colorado had much better numbers in goal scoring per game ranking fourth and not too bad stopping pucks either ranking sixth in goals against per game. Hopefully returning would be puck stopper Philipp Grubauer, heart trophy candidate (again speculation, but not really) Nathan McKinnon and winger Mikko Rantanen, this team would be a force in the Playoffs. I have to again put the season series aside and would put my money on the Avalanche.

Now, as this is just speculation I won’t waste everyone’s time and break down the matchups, however, there has been Reports through TSN’s Daren Dreger from Sports-Express writer Igor Eronko. that the Playoffs could be expanded to 24 teams if they end the season now, to make it fairer for the teams just on the outside looking in. Rumor is that the top two teams in each conference would get a first-round bye. From this point on the logistics get very tricky. There is talk of the seventh and eighth place team facing off in a three-game series to set who would face the three seed. That would be a neat twist. We will have to wait and see. As long as they don’t change the playoff overtime format, I’m all for it this season!

Cash with Flash Best Bets: 

Since we don’t have any idea what the NHL will do, we only have the playoff format from past seasons. That being said, there is a couple of series’ that I would look to find value. 

If the playoffs were, to begin with, the top eight teams playing each other, I would seriously look at the Columbus Blue Jackets-Boston Bruins series. The Blue Jackets have won both of their meetings this season and I don’t think this is a very good matchup for the Bruins and we could see an upset. The Blue Jackets have been better than expected and could end up doing some real damage in the playoffs.

The other series I like is a possible Calgary Flames-Edmonton Oilers series. Alberta would go wild to have a playoff series featuring the Battle for Alberta. The Flames have won each of their three meetings and seem to have the Oilers number. So I would look to target that series also. 

If you were to make a futures bet right now, what team would you bet on and why? 

Zak’s Puck Picks: I currently have money on the Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup at +675 ( I made the bet right after the trade deadline after Robin Lehner and Alec Martinez came aboard). I also like the look of the Colorado Avalanche at +1000. They got beat in the second round last year by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions and I feel they have got stronger this season. It is very hard to bet against the Bruins to win the East this season but if I was going to, I could see the Philadelphia Flyers being that upset team at +500. Of we want to take some deep dives for potential winners, as anything can happen on the Stanley Cup playoffs (just look at last year with all top four teams put on the first round in the west, and an eighth-seeded team winning it all) I like Carolina from the East at +6000 (ONLY IF the playoffs are extended to 24 teams) and either the Edmonton Oilers at +2000 or the Minnesota Wild at +6000 ( again ONLY IF the playoffs are expanded to 24 teams) 

I can not wait for the puck to hit the ice again, as, from everything I listen to and read currently from NHL radio on Sirius to Podcasts to Twitter and internet articles, it sounds like they are really trying to make a go of it. Excited to get into more content soon regarding more tips to look at when betting hockey. I hope you all are staying safe and taking care of each other out there! Be safe and keep your stick on the ice! 

Cash with Flash: The Winnipeg Jets were the hottest potential playoff team and went into the hiatus riding a four-game winning streak. At 50-1 this could be a nice payout if they can win the Lord Stanley Cup. The Jets beat Vegas twice and that would be their first matchup, so that would be one team that I would consider. 

The St Louis Blues are at 10-1 and we have to consider this team as they have the goaltending to see them through to the Finals. The Blues would have a tough matchup with the Nashville Predators and Nashville swept their season series so getting past the Predators would be difficult but I don’t think it would be impossible. 

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