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Yuri Gurriel

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/18 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/11 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/30 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!

I hope you’ve enjoyed my MLB writeups this season, and make sure you check me out on Twitter and read my NFL and PGA musings at Win Daily Sports!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/30 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 7 – HoustonAstros at Washington Nationals, 8:08 p.m. EST

The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!

10/30 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.

Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.

Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.

In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.

Final thoughts about pitching:

It scares me to see Greinke’s fly ball rate at 38.9 this postseason,especially with his HR/FB rate at 23.8 percent.
Scherzer will NOT want to exit this game, so expect him to challengehitters early to keep his pitch count down, except for Alex Bregman, who hewill probably walk if he can get away with it.
Patrick Corbin may pitch in this game, but his price is too oppressivefor what will be limited work. I’m not going to get cute.
We haven’t seen Houston closer Roberto Osuna since Game 3 five daysago, so he’s somebody who we could focus on at just $4K.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/30 DFS Hitters

Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).

For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.

10/30 DFS WashingtonNationals bats

Trea Turner (DK$13,200/$8,800)

Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,100/$7,400)

Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.

Spotlight Value: AsdrubalCabrera (DK $9,900/$6,600)

Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.

More 10/30 DFS options:Anthony Rendon (DK $14,400/$9,600), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800), JuanSoto (DK $14,100/$9,400), whoever catches at whatever price.

10/30 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.

Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,500/$7,000)

I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?

George Springer (DK$14,400/$9,600)

Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,800/$7,200)

Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).

More 10/30 DFS options: Alex Bregman (DK $12,600/$8,400), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,000/$4,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,500/$5,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Main narrative – Houston win)

CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced& low-scoring w/ Gurriel 3-R HR)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Natswin a score-fest, Doolittle closes)

CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

10/30 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day – Click here to play now now and get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!

HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve

I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/29 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The Astros can close out the World Series in six games tonight, and our 10/29 DFS picks for MLB will provide some GPP and cash game options to win big!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

10/29 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 6 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals put the Astros one run up at 4.0 to withthe Nats 3.0. With the total at 7, we could have some shares of SP and closers here.

10/29 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Feel free toperuse my pre-game notes on this matchup ahead of Game 2,especially if you need more information on starters Justin Verlander (DK $16,500/$11,000) and Stephen Strasburg (DK $16,200/$10,800).

These pitchersare evenly matched, and the matchup of these talented hurlers could be one toremember. But Verlander’s velocity is down a bit, and his slider command isn’t whatit was earlier in the season. The Astros ace has also given up six home runs inhis last four games (23.1 IP) to go along with 14 earned runs and 27 Ks. Despitehis recent vulnerability to the longball, he’s pitching to a 3.88 SIERA this postseason.

Verlander hasthrown over 100 pitches in four straight postseason games and will probablyreach that number again tonight in one of the biggest games of his life. Ithink he’s a lock for 15+ DK points with 30-point upside.

Strasburg hasdone a better job limiting damage and has, for the most part, kept opposinghitters in check this postseason, but he yielded seven hits to the Astros juggernautover 6 IP in Game 2. He’s thrown more pitches than Verlander in his past coupleoutings, with 117 against St. Louis in Game 3 of the NLCS and 114 in Game 2 of theWorld Series. He’s carrying a 1.93 ERA this postseason and an impressive 2.08SIERA with 40 Ks in five games (four stars and one three-inning reliefappearance in the NL Wild Card game).

I think Strasburg makes for a fine play in this game, based on his 40:2 K/BB ratio across 28 IP, and the fact that the only runs he allowed in Game 2 came in the first inning on a two-run home run by Alex Bregman.

There’s no way to fade either pitcher except on a hunch that the Natseven this thing up behind a classic performance by Strasburg. For every ten lineupsI make, I’ll include both pitchers in about four, count on one or the other infour more, and have two that are hitters only.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/29 DFS Hitters

Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley are my favoriteAstros bats, which is a problem because we can’t fit them without sacrificingpitching. Yordan Alvarez isn’t as cheap as Brantley, but he has more upside forhis HR power. For Washington, I’m focused on Juan Soto, Trea Turner and KurtSuzuki (hip flexor strain) – but only if he’s healthy enough to catch Strasburg.Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera make some sense, with Kendrick as apowerful RHB and Cabrera getting the nod for value.

10/29 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $13,500/$9,000)

I’m just going to keep playing him, even with the reduced pricingdaring me to do so and the chalky taste I’ll get in my mouth after plugging himin. He went yard on Sunday in Game 5 and remains the Nats hottest and besthitter this postseason. Soto now has a 125 wRC+ this postseason to go with 4HR, 12 RBI and a .268 ISO in 15 games. He’s hit two of those homers in this series,and I’m, not betting against a third.

Trea Turner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Turner got blanked in Game 5, but we’re going back to the well. He’s going to have more ABs than any other National in this game and he’s too good not to have some kind of impact in consecutive games. The power hasn’t been there this postseason, but the metrics say he’s still a good bet. Plus, Minute Maid park gives right-handed hitters a huge bump because of the increased RHB HR factor.

Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The BvP data against Verlander is terrible, (5-for-26 career with 0 HR and .077 IS), .230 wOBA) but it’s still a relatively small sample at 26 ABs. I’m leaning toward Kendrick because he’s a right-handed power hitter who’s come up in big spots during his postseason career.

Spotlight Value: Asdrubal Cabrera (DK $10,500/$7,000) and Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,600/$6,400)

Cabrera has decent numbers against Verlander and has seen him more than anybody on this team – over 30 times more than anybody, to be precise. He’s a professional hitter with plenty of gas in the tank and sneaky power. Don’t play Suzuki in too many lineups if he doesn’t start. I’ll have him in maybe one out of 10 if he doesn’t since he’s a better contact hitter than Gomes and they may need his bat during the desperation innings. If Suzuki doesn’t start, Yan Gomes is cheap and worth a look for his HR upside. Suzuki recently said he was feeling better but would reassess his availability for Game 6 on Tuesday morning.

Other 10/29 DFS options: Anthony Rendon (DK $14,700/$9,800), Adam Eaton (DK $10,800/$7,200), Victor Robles (DK $10,500/$7,000), Yan Gomes — if he starts (DK $6,900/$4,600)

10/29 DFS Houston Astros bats

Alex Bregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Blanked on Sunday,Bregman looks to get back on the home run train in Game 6, as the even-numberedgames have yielded dingers in this World Series. That funky numerology aside,he’s the best hitter on the Astros and he’s not going to break your bank if youplug him in at captain. That’s where I’ll want him tonight.

Jose Altuve (DK $14,100/$9,400)

Altuve doesn’t have any homers in this World Series yet, but hedoes have eight hits in the last four games. I’ll have plenty of shares, evenas the team’s second most expensive hitter. George Springer is a good play too,but he’s a few more dollars and it’s hard to fit both.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

He’s heating up and can go back to his comfort zone at DH in Game6. The matchup is a difficult one, but the more he sees Strasburg, the better.I’ll have some shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($11,700/$7,800)

Brantley is getting a lot of hits and provides the best value onthe Astros team. He’s yet to be flummoxed by the opposing pitchers, and hasjust one strikeout in the entire series – a truly remarkable numbers in today’s“three true outcomes” game. For the guy who puts it in play more than anybodyelse in Houston, I’m buying.

Other 10/29 DFS options: George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,100/$7,400), Carlos Correa (DK $12,000/$8,000), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos ($9,300/$6,200)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Contrarianw/Brantley up top)

CPT – M. Brantley ($11,700)

UTIL – S. Strasburg ($10,800)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gomes ($7,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Bregman CPT w/ Verlander UTIL)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,800)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,000

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($6,200)

UTIL – Y. Gomes ($4,600)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Suzukiplays, Nats dominate)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($16,200)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($8,700)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,000)

10/29 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,000)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Kendrick ($4,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,000)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Alvarez ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto ($8,000)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,500)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day – Click here to play now now and get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!

HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel

These guys all have power and this park is a good hitters park for RHBs. Soto is a lefty but red hot at the plate, and getting one dinger among these three is nearly a lock.

4 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/27 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re on to pivotal Game 5 of the World Series, and our 10/27 DFS picks for MLB give you the picks to win big in some GPPs and dominate cash games!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

10/27 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 5 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals again have the Astros – who justevened this series up at two games apiece – as slight favorites, with the Nats at3.0 to 3.5 and Houston coming in between 3.5 runs and 4.0. The total is around7, so we should probably utilize some SP here.

10/27 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Iprovided us with a bunch of pre-gamenotes on this matchup ahead of Game 1, and we’re right back where westarted. Checkthat piece out for more info on GerritCole (DK $16,800/$11,200) who is firmly in play because of his reducedprice, his sustained ability to throw a gem and pile up the Ks.

While Max Scherzer (DK $15,900/$10,600) was the better pitcher in Game 1, or at least finished with better numbers (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 20.5 DK FP), I’m committed to Cole here, as I think the Astros are going to take all three of these games in Washington and head back to Houston to close it out in six (just like my Yankees did in 1996!). UPDATE: Max Scherzer SCRATCHED due to back spasms. Joe Ross (DK $9,000/$6,000) getting the start and worth a look as a low-cost GPP mix in.

With therecency of Scherzer’s last start and the Astros hitters a good bunch at making adjustments(especially Alex Bregman, who finally broke through last night much to ourdelight), I think there’s an opportunity to mix in some lineups with Cole atUTIL and an Astros 1-4 hitter in the top spot.

About two outof 10 of my GPP lineups will have Scherer, and five or six out of 10 willroster Cole.

Let’s talkabout hitters we like.

10/27 DFS Hitters

The three Astros I like best tonight are George Springer, Alex Bregmanand Michael Brantley – with some shares of Jose Altuve and Yuri Gurriel. For Washington,it’s going to be Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, with shares of Ryan Zimmermanand Victor Robles.

10/27 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Game 1 heromakes for the smartest allocation of funds for Nats bats, and he’s the mosteffective left-handed bat on the team and a bona fide star in the making. Workhim into at least half of your Nats-focused builds.

Trea Turner (DK $13,500/$9,000)

Turner’s power-speed combo is a pathway to fantasy points against atough opponent, and you can count on a stolen base if he gets aboard early. He’sstill waiting to break out in this series and I could see a 2-for-5 game withan XBH and a steal.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,700/$7,800)

Eaton went hitless last night, his first postseason game without ahit since October 9 facing the Dodgers, when he still finished with a run. Hehad two hits in Game 1.

Spotlight Value: Victor Robles (DK $10,500/$7,000) and RyanZimmerman (DK $9,600/$6,400)

We’re rolling with Robles and Zimmerman, who are both $7K or under as a UTIL, and either could be a pathway top both Cole and Scherzer if you’re counting on a pitchers’ duel. These two and Turner probably make the most sense as low-price captain options if you like the Nats and don’t want to spend up for Soto.

Other 10/27 DFS options: AnthonyRendon (DK $15,000/$10,000), Asdrubal Cabrera (DK $10,200/$6,800). If he plays:Kurt Suzuki ($8,700/$5,800)

10/27DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Springer had a monster Game 1 and looks ready to continuepestering Nats’ pitching at the top of the Houston lineup. It’s been one gameoff, one game on for him this WS, and today he should be on.

Alex Bregman (DK $13,200/$8,800)

He’s no longer cheaper than Adam Eaton, but he’s cheaper. And he’sstill less expensive than Turner, Springer and Altuve and in a much better spotto drive in runs and connect on a long ball. The ineffectiveness againstScherer ion Game 1 gives me some pause, but not enough to not use him in mycore Houston builds.

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is always a good play, and he’s be part of my Houstonbuilds where I use a closer. He’s still just the fourth most expensive hitterand has the most impressive postseason resume.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($12,000/$8,000)

Brantley had three more hits last night and his price only came upto $8K for the utility spot. He’s not as cheap as he was, but he’s got a goodtrack record against Scherzer and if he can stay ahead in counts could may theNats pay.

Other 10/27 DFS options: YuriGurriel (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick(DK $7,200/$4,800), Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000)

Sample DKGPP lineup #1 (Houston-heavy w/ Cole)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,200)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna (3,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2(Balanced w/value up top)

CPT – V. Robles ($10,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,400)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (w/Scherzer and Nats closer)

CPT – R. Zimmerman ($9,600)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,800)

10/27 DFS Hitters for FD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1(Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($7,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

Sample FD lineup (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – H. Kendrick ($4,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)

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Cole Under 8.5, Scherzer Under 7.5 — 3x Buy In

I have Cole at 7-8 Ks and Scherzer at 6-7, so that put both under for 3x! We did good last night with the Bregman HR, so lets keep it up!!

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4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/25 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.

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10/25 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 3 – Houston Astros at WashingtonNationals, 8:07 p.m. EST

Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.

10/25 DFS SP Strategy and Game Notes

Zack Greinke ($15,900/$10,600)

Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.

Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.

Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.

Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.

One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.

Anibal Sánchez ($13,800/$9,200)

Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.

We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.

Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.

If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.

Here’s what I’ll be doing:

Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.

Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.

10/25 DFS Hitters

I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.

NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup

10/25 DFS Washington Nationals bats

AnthonyRendon (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.

JuanSoto (DK $15,000/$10,000)

Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.

HowieKendrick (DK $13,800/$9,200)

If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.

SpotlightValue: Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800) and Adam Eaton (DK $11,400/$7,600)

We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.

Other10/25 DFS options: Trea Turner (DK $14,100/$9,400), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $10,500/$7,000),Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,900/$6,600)

10/25 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,500/$9,000)

We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.

SpotlightValue: Yuri Gurriel ($11,700/$7,800)

Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.

NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.

Other 10/25 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $12,300/$8,200), George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK GPP lineup #1 (w/Greinke)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced w/no pitchers)

CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #3 (w/ Greinke and Houston closer)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup #4 (Nats w/Sanchez and Doolittle)

CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)

UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

10/25 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!

SampleFD GPP lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)

SampleFD GPP lineup #2 (Nats-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)

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Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Home Run Derby: Gurriel, Soto and Bregman

Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/23 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The World Series continuestonight in Houston after a big win from the Nats – so check out our 10/23 DFSpicks for MLB at Win Daily Sports.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/23 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 2 – Washington Nationals atHouston Astros, 8:07 p.m. EST

10/23 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Last night’s top Showdown entries had Max Scherzer, but noGerrit Cole, as the Houston ace struggled to put way batters, gave up five ERand notched just six Ks. It also had Sean Doolittle, so my lineups with Coleand Osuna yesterday were on the right track – I just had the wrong winning team.

Stephen Strasburg’s postseason numbers are almost asridiculous as Cole’s were heading into last night’s matchup, so I’ll considerhim the analog to Cole’s 1A yesterday. The Nationals hurler has less than one-quarterof the postseason experience that Justin Verlander does, and his metrics in thatmuch smaller sample are superior:

Strasburg: 1.10 ERA, 2.07 SIERA, 12.51 K/9,1.10 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 35.6 K% (41.0 IP)
Verlander: 3.26 ERS, 3.09 SIERA, 9.98 K/9, 2.75BB/9, 1.03 WHIP, 27.8 K% (176.2 IP)

We’ll have shares of both in our lineup builds, though I’llbe taking more Strasburg in cash games given Verlander’s propensity to serve upthe long ball:

Verlander has a career postseason 1.17 HR/9 and0.93 for his entire career
Strasburg has a career postseason 0.44 HR/9 and0.89 for his entire career

I still think playingboth in cash games is viable, and I’ll shift more GPP ownership to Verlander.

Morenotes:

Verlander has faced these Nats hitters 274times and yielded just 4 homers to them, posting a .248/.306/.365 slash, withAsdrubal Cabrera having the most experience and success (21-for-76 with 3 HR).
The Astros are again about one-run favoriteswith an implied total of about 4.0 to the Nats’ 3.0. Last night’s game finishedtwo runs over the projected total (one for each team, but reversed), so it’snot worth throwing these numbers out just yet.
Once again, stay tuned to the starting lineups– we could get some value from unlikely sources.

10/23 DFS Hitters

We’ll stick to the overall theme of the playoffs here, as that seemed to play out last night save for the solo shot by Ryan Zimmerman and the better plate approach from Yordan Alvarez, which we can get behind a bit more here. My player writeups for yesterday were a bit long because it was Game 1, so I’ll stick to one key thought for each player here and you can refer back to my previous writeup if you need more info.

10/23 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Rendon has not faced Verlander before and is still a dangerous batin the heart of a solid lineup. We have to consider him, especially since he’sbeen quiet and has no trouble hitting RHPs. His price jumped $200 too (because theSPs don’t cost as much), so he’s definitely in play for GPPs.

TreaTurner (DK $13,500/$9000)

My writeup on Turner wasspot-on yesterday and it applies again today. If he’s on base, he’s in business.And he does have power (.200 ISO in 2019). I’ll have shares, though maybe notas much as last night.

JuanSoto (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Again – the analysis wassolid, but I didn’t trust him enough to warrant the top captain spot in my GPPbuilds. He’s a hitter who thrives on confidence, but his ownership will bethrough the roof for Game 2. You’ll need some shares, just don’t go overboard.

SpotlightValue: Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,300/$6,200)

Last night’s valuespotlight didn’t play, but his replacement did, and he hit a homer. Tonight, werun the same risk if they decide to roll out Yan Gomes instead of Suzuki – who’s14-for-42 career off Verlander with just 4 Ks – a stat which stuck out as muchas any considering Verlander’s 24.7% career K rate.

Other options: Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600), Adam Eaton (DK $10,500/$7,000), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800)

10/23 DFS Houston Astros bats

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve ended up 1-for-5last night and still reached double digit points on DK, so a multi-hit gamemakes him worthy of usage in our builds, and consideration as the main hitterfor our Astros-heavy lineups. He’s 2-for-5 off Strasburg in his career, whichain’t much – but it’s a start.

AlexBregman (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The guy is due. Bregman took a gift pitch from Sean Doolittle right over the heart of the plate yesterday because he was overthinking location and looking away – and he’ll likely not make that same mistake again. I trust his bat and his approach, so we’re going back to the well with him against Strasburg (2-for-3 career).

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

I’m fully aboard the Alvarez redemption train, as theyoung slugger went 2-for-3 in Game 1 and could easily break through with adinger tonight. He did hit 27 in 357 ABs during the regular season, and he’s beenon a homerless slump for far too long.

CarlosCorrea (DK $12,000/$8,000)

Correa was one of the fewAstros that actually looked overmatched by Scherzer last night (1-for-5, 3 Ks),even though the Nats’ pitcher didn’t have his best stuff. It’s possibly hisback was bothering him a bit, so I’m going to reduce my shares, which weremassive for Game 1.

SpotlightValue: Robinson Chirinos (DK $7,500/$5,000)

It’s catcher day in Game 2 of the World Series. Thevalue is there, and the guy has plenty of power (18 HRs in 388 ABs in 2019).Catchers also have a knack for hitting mistake pitches very well, and Strasburgdoes make mistakes.

Other 10/23 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,700/$7,800), George Springer (DK $13,800/$9,200), Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK Cash or GPP lineup (Strasburg up top, no Verlander – $700 left)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($15,900)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($5,400)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP lineup (Verlander up top, no Strasburg)

CPT – J. Verlander ($17,100)

UTIL – Bregman ($9,400)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez ($8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston heavy with $500 left)

CPT – Y. Alvarez ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos (5,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (Houston-heavy with $2,100 left)

CPT – A. Bregman ($14,100)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,600)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez (8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (No pitchers)

CPT – J. Soto ($13,200)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

10/23 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon hitters and try to find the bombs in the MVP and All-Star spot.

SampleFD lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Altuve($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Alvarez($6,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

SampleFD lineup #2 (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Rendon($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera($6,000)

Sample FD lineup #3 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Springer ($8,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

UTIL – Zimmerman ($5,000)

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Pick the Players for Most Fantasy Points — Goal: 19.50, Prize: 5x

Springer, Soto and Altuve

We hit on the 2x bet with the Soto HR last night and tonight were going back to the well with him and couple of hot-hitting, speedy Astros. Making 20 fantasy points among the three seems like a great wager at 5x, so lets go for it!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

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10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/24 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Stacking Sox in the Texas Heat

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!

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9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.

Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.

Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600) FD($3,200)

Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900) FD ($4,000)

Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,700)

Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700) FD($3,000)

It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700) FD($3,800)

Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.

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9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,400)

He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)

2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)

OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/19 MLB DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/19 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Toronto Blue Jays

Here is a Tuesday snippet from our Slack Channel, that is accessible to all Premium Gold members. This is one of the many winners that are shown throughout the channel. The Toronto Blue Jays faced the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards and there was not much hope for the pitching staff of either team. As shown above, the Blue Jays won 11-10 behind a six-run ninth inning. Randal Grichuk went 1-for-5 with a grand slam and Teoscar Hernandez went 1-for-6 with a three-run home run.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The young Blue Jays hitters are showing that they could possibly be as good as their fathers: 11 runs, 15 hits, nine walks, and reaching twice via an error. Overcoming a 7-1 deficit after five innings, the Blue Jays stayed on the pedal and dominated the Orioles bullpen. Expect the Blue Jays to finish the year strong, attempting to play spoiler along the way and gain experience going into the 2020 season.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Aaron Civale

As Brandon C. Williams stated in the DFS Pitching Picks, Aaron Civale had a great day on the hill against the Detroit Tigers. He picked up a no-decision while going 7.2 innings and allowing a run on four hits with a walk and four strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Don’t look now but Civale has a 1.82 ERA through 54.1 innings thus far in his rookie campaign. He is looking like if the Indians make an ALDS appearance, Civale has an argument to be near the top of the starting rotation. Expect similar outings like this one for the final couple of starts for Civale to end the regular season.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Trey Mancini

Jason chose as a top catcher/first baseman slot on the MLB Cheatsheet, also available for all premium members, Trey Mancini had a solid day at the plate against the Toronto Blue Jays. Mancini went 2-for-5 with a double, a run scored and three RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Baltimore Orioles do not have many reasons for people to pay attention (unless you are winning $1,500 on their demise) but Trey Mancini has been outstanding for them. He is now up to 91 RBI on a team that has scored 661 runs all season. Mancini might be stuck in a rebuild as he is about to enter arbitration this offseason, but expect him to get very close, if not surpass 100 RBI by the end of the year.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Yuli Gurriel

Another solid choice by Jason, this time a value catcher/first baseman, Yuli Gurriel had a great value for DFS players that chose him in their lineup. Gurriel went up against the Texas Rangers and finished 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Gurriel is now up to 30 home runs and an OPS of .902 on the season. Besides the offense, the ability to play both corner infield spots could play a huge factor with keeping him in the lineup while managing rest now that they clinched the AL West. Expect Gurriel to be a major force in the Astros lineup for their final few games of the season and beyond.

5 years ago 0 comment

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