NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Texans at Chiefs Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago written by Antonio D'Arcangelis The NFL DFS season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.Let’s say I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP. At least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Week 1 NFL DFS: MVP candidates (1.5x points)Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)Lower-risk Contrarian #1: DeShaun Watson (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)High-upside Contrarian #2: Will Fuller V (DK $12,000, FD $10,500)High-risk Contrarian #3: Randall Cobb (DK $6,300, FD $8,500)DK-only Punts: Chiefs DST ($5,100) and Darrel Williams ($2,700)With the Chiefs listed as 9-10 point favorites with a 31.75 implied team total in the season opener, we’re going to see Mahomes as MVP in the vast majority of FD lineups and a healthy portion on DK. I’m calling the Chiefs rookie RB “CEH” to avoid too much typing, and I’m going to have a fair share of him at the top spot as well. He’s not a bad anchor if we want to build out with the Chiefs DST, Mahomes and a couple Texans.The path to a low-owned lottery ticket with plenty of upside comes with a great deal of risk if we use Watson, but I’ll have at least one in five GPP lineups that uses this strategy. We’ve seen Watson have many an explosive second half with the Texans trailing by multiple scores and that’s just what could happen here if the Chiefs D does its job in the first half and relaxes with a two or three-score lead in the fourth quarter.Fuller, when healthy (or simple active) is a dangerous man. He’s my favorite Texans player and another possible candidate. Whether Brandin Cooks sits or not, we can give Randall Cobb a huge bump, as he’s always capable of big plays out of the slot and a TD or two. Hint: DeShaun Watson loves throwing to the slot…On DK, it might pair to have some shares of the Chiefs DST in the MVP slot if we’re looking to get three more Chiefs and one of the two Johnsons (David or Duke) with Fuller.The largest unknown in this game is probably how the Chiefs will utilize their RBs (CEH, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson), so exploring some different combinations there will be key. I like Darrel Williams a lot because he’s the Chiefs’ top pass-blocking back and short-yardage guy – and he’ll see a handful of touches/targets with the possibility of 8-10 if he gets a “hot hand.” At just $2,700 (just $1,800 in a utility slot), he could be a gamebreaker if he hits his 15-20 point upside.Week 1 NFL DFS: Utility optionsNow that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value:Patrick MahomesDeShaun WatsonTyreek HillTravis Kelce (questionable, knee)Will FullerClyde Edwards-HelaireChiefs DSTDavid JohnsonMecole Hardman Duke Johnson Darrel Williams Harrison Butker Randall CobbSammy Watkins Kenny Stills Jordan Akins Ka’imi’ Fairbairn Brandin Cooks (questionable, quad) Daniel Fells Texans DSTGood luck this week and don’t hesitate to get in Discord and pepper our writers with any question you may have!Image Courtesy of Smashdown Sports News 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsNFL Divisional Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Welcome to my preview for the Divisional Weekend DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price). Divisional Weekend DFS – Minnesota at San Francisco – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: 49ers -6 | Over/Under 45The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 45 in total and is up to 44 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 256 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games: The team like San Francisco won the game 184 times (71.9%). The team like Minnesota won the game 71 times (27.7%). The team like Minnesota did better against the spread, going 128-116-12 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.QuarterbacksFrom a quick glance, these quarterbacks look like some of the least appealing on the slate. Kirk Cousins ($5,700/$7,600) will be facing off versus a vicious 49ers defensive front that is getting healthier. Cousins played well last week, but still only ended up with 13.58 fantasy points. So even if Cousins can duplicate is efforts from last week, that may not translate to fantasy success. Of the two quarterbacks, I prefer Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,600/$7,800) who is the cheaper quarterback on DraftKings but only as a target in larger-field GPPs. Minnesota is down a lot of cornerbacks and its weaknesses are in its secondary. The 49ers this season have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks second-best in the NFL. DefensesFor defenses overall on this slate, the Vikings DST ($2,700/$3,700) seems like the safest pay-down option. They have scored at least eight fantasy points over six straight weeks. The 49ers DST ($3,000/$4,600) I would only play on DraftKings, as the clear-cut choice for best pay-up DST is Kansas City ($3,200/$4,200) on FanDuel. Running BacksDalvin Cook ($8,000/$8,000) arguably is the best running back on the Divisional DFS Weekend slate especially on FanDuel where he is only the third-highest price running back. He is seeing and touching the ball too much to not have him as a core piece in your lineups. As for the 49ers backfield, Raheem Mostert ($5,800/$6,700) is the lead back, but with the other SF running backs healthy, I am sure they will cut into his production. I would prefer to use some more salary and pay up to get to Damien Williams ($6,000/$6,900) who should see more touches and is just $200 more on both sites. The Vikings defense is not good at defending running backs in the passing game, so on DraftKings, Matt Breida ($3,300/$5,000) is an interesting name to consider, because there is a chance they have been saving him for the playoffs. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsThere’s no tougher matchup for George Kittle ($6,200/$7,400) than his spot this week. No team has been better other than the Green Bay Packers versus tight ends over the last four weeks of the season. We saw it last with Jared Cook as well who went just five receptions for 54 yards. That being said you need Kittle to smash in this spot, and at his price, it might just make more sense to have more exposure for Travis Kelce ($6,400)/$7,500). For the Minnesota receivers, both have now popped up on the injury report which means I am limiting my exposure to Stefon Diggs ($5,600/$6,800). He has a brutal track record of underperforming in games where he was on the injury report leading up to that game. The 49ers are strong versus deep passes and Diggs lead the NFL in yards per reception this season. In most cases, I would rather just pay-down to get to either Deebo Samuel ($5,200/$6,100) or Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400/$5,700). Samuel is cheaper on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper on FanDuel. I like both of them in this spot versus the Minnesota secondary that is dealing with a ton of injuries. Samuel gets rushing attempts which is a plus, and Sanders is actually coming off his first bye week of the season! Remember he was traded to San Francisco after their bye week in Week 4, so he has played 17 straight weeks. He says he feels relieved and much better heading into this game after a lackluster final three-game stretch (eight receptions for 95 yards). Adam Thielen ($6,200/$6,900) is still the receiver you want in Minnesota if he plays. Over the last four weeks, no team allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the 49ers.Divisional Weekend DFS – Titans @ Ravens – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: Baltimore -10 | Over/Under 48Quarterbacks, DefensesThe line on this game has just gone down since it opened at 48 down to 46.5. Not a sign that Vegas considers this game a shootout and it should not be considering both teams want to run the football which shortens the game. But for Lamar Jackson ($8,400)/$9,400) it does not really matter. Play him in cash games, and use him in GPPs in Divisional Weekend DFS. But with which Ravens player should you pair him with? Well, the Ravens DST ($3,600/$4,800) is also in a smash spot as the Titans have allowed 3.4 sacks per game the third-highest average in the NFL. Running BacksMark Ingram has been labeled day-day and I am concerned that even after a two-week absence he is not ready to go. It has been reported that he will play but there is a strong chance that he could be limited in this game, which means Gus Edwards ($4,900/$5,400) would become a lock, especially on FanDuel. In Ingram’s absence in Week 17 behind back-up offensive lineman and RG3 at quarterback versus a great Steelers’ defense Edwards did work. He carried 21 times for 130 yards. If Ingram is active I love him in GPPs. The same goes for Justice Hill ($3,900/$4,800) on FanDuel. He is way too cheap over there.Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,600) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where absolutely dominated the New England Patriots. However, he is far from a lock for me because this game script is going to be harder to project the Titans playing with a lead. He is also very expensive on both sites, so I would not be touching him heavily on DraftKings. However, you must keep in mind that the Baltimore defense is weak through its run defense. At home this season the Ravens have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, which was worse than the Carolina Panthers. If the game script somehow goes in the Titans favor than Henry could rack up points quickly with a 25 touch workload looking very projectable. The Ravens can also be exposed versus heavier personnel packages. Versus 12-personnel Baltimore allowed a 48% success rate and 4.5 yards per attempt this season. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsI think Marquise Brown ($4,400)/$5,300) finds himself in a sweet spot on both sites. He is priced down significantly and has a massive upside that you usually cannot get from the receiver at his salary. He can help round out a GPP stack with Jackson. Also, cornerback Adoree Jackson will be returning for Tennesse but he has been dealing with a foot injury, while Brown has not been on the injury report at all this week. That despite being on it almost every week during the regular season. Mark Andrews ($5,600/$6,800) will also be good to go and the matchup is also great for him. The Titans allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season and allowed Ben Watson to be second on the Patriots in receptions and yards last week. Andrews is a great pivot off Kelce/Kittle.On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($6,000)/($7,400) had been on absolute fire but was shut down last week. I am not looking to fade Brown this week, because the Titans should be forced to throw the ball more versus the Ravens. We also got a $1,400 discount on him on DraftKings down to 6K. On the season the Ravens allowed the third-most targets, seventh-most receptions, and sixth-most red-zone targets to receivers. The Ravens also ranked number one versus the tight end, so I am looking elsewhere for a cheap tight end than in this game. Divisional Weekend DFS – Texans @ Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 49Quarterbacks, DefensesWhen we want to target games for DFS we look for games where the totals are moving up. This is the case here with Houston @ KC, where the line opened at 49 and has moved up to 51 with the Chiefs getting two more points in the process. They are now favored by ten. Patrick Mahomes ($7,500/$8,600) is a great option in cash and GPPs if you cannot afford to pay up for Jackson. Houston was the fourth-worst ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2019. That being said the more contrarian approach will be targeting the other QB Deshaun Watson ($6,700/$8,300). He is a nice late-swap pivot if your Mahomes lineups are not looking great after the first two games. I like the savings more on DrafKings than on FanDuel where you only shave off $300. I alluded to it earlier, but I also love the Chiefs DST ($3,200/$4,200) especially on FanDuel. Watson was sacked seven times last week and this season has been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game.Running BackYou have to lock-in, Damien Williams. With his increased workload, and the salary he is too easy to jam into lineups. Houston on the season ranked fifth-worst versus the running back position and gave up the second-most receptions to the position. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsTravis Kelce ($6,400/$7,500) is the clear-cut number one tight end option on the slate. The Texans over the last four weeks rank fourth-worst versus the position. Kelce has yet to see less than nine targets in five of his past six games. Darren Fells ($3,500/$5,200) should only be rostered if we see Jordan Akins miss again. Kansas City allowed the second-most targets to the tight end position over the 2019 season and ranked third in touchdowns at the position. The Houston defense allows a ton of completions towards the middle of the field, but ranks fourth-best versus deep passes. However, Tyreek Hill ($7,600/$7,900) should see enough work in the slot versus Vernon Hargreaves who is one of the single-worst cornerbacks left in the NFL playoffs. Hill’s ceiling is too high to not have exposure and he should dominate. I do prioritize Kelce first in builds. I like Hill on FanDuel more where he is cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400/$8,100). Not sure if I will be too heavy on Hopkins especially as Will Fuller ($5,000/$5,600) makes his probable return. I love Fuller in GPPs because the last time he played Kansas City he almost had three touchdowns but dropped them. Still, the plays were there, and I think in the playoffs he makes them this time around. Divisional Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Packers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: Green Bay -4.0| Over/Under 46Quarterbacks, DefensesRussell Wilson ($6,600)/($7,900) has struggled in his few games at Lambeau Field. Just three combined passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his three career games there. Overall versus Green Bay Wilson has never thrown for more than 225 yards or two passing touchdowns. So with the quarterbacks here I lean towards Aaron Rodgers ($6,500/$8,100) especially on DraftKings where is priced lower than Wilson. Rodgers is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Green Bay is averaging over 260 passing yards per game at home this season (sixth-highest), with 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. I also think the Green Bay DST ($2,800/$4,400) is a very usable DST on DraftKings in the mid-range price. Seattle’s offensive line is really banged up. Packers ranked top-four in forced turnovers per game at home. Running BackAaron Jones ($7,400/$8,200) is in a killer-spot here versus the Seahawks atrocious run defense. Over the last four weeks, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and the most rushing touchdowns. Pete Carroll also talked up getting more Marshawn Lynch ($4,800/$6,000) involved, which I think you need to get some exposure to especially because of Lynch’s workload near the goal line. Green Bay has allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game, so there is a three-touchdown game in Lynch’s outcomes that needs to be accounted for. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsTyler Lockett ($6,600/$6,700) is cheaper than DK Metcalf ($6,800/$7,100) on both sites this week and I will surely be buying him at the discount. Lockett is still seeing targets; he had eight last week and not fewer than seven in the previous three. For the value, I also love using guys like Allen Lazard ($4,500/$5,400) and Jimmy Graham ($3,300/$5,000). It’s a #revengegame for Graham and a great matchup. The Seahawks were the second-worst team versus the tight end this year only behind the Arizona Cardinals. Also, Graham is coming off his second-highest target total (seven) of the season. Speaking of targets that is also why I like Lazard. He has 17 targets in his last two games. The Seattle defense is overrated. Image via Keith Allison 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsNFL Wildcard Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price). Wildcard Weekend DFS – Buffalo @ Houston – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -3 | Over/Under 41.5The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).QuarterbacksFrom a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game. However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.DefensesFor defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018. Running BacksDo not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17. It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsAt the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday. The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells. Wildcard Weekend DFS – Titans @ Patriots – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: New England -5 | Over/Under 43.5Quarterbacks, DefensesAs a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland. All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career. Running BacksThe Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsOutside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense. https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1211745999510757376On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung. https://twitter.com/TDavenport_NFL/status/1212459802338701312Wildcard Weekend DFS – Vikings @ Saints – 1:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 47Quarterbacks, DefensesThe 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks. Running BackThe Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsThe one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go. Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1. This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target. Wildcard Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Eagles – 4:40 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 46Quarterbacks, DefensesThis is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback. Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense. Running BackOver the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs. Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week. https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1211669370860167168Wide Receivers, Tight EndsI have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown. Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage. https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc/status/1211742048266547200Image via Keith Allison 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Saturday DFS Week 16 Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings. Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily PodcastSaturday DFS Week 16 – Texans @ Buccaneers – 1 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -1 | Over/Under 53The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.QuarterbacksFrom a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary. Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000). https://twitter.com/gregauman/status/1206980103256850432DefensesIt’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback. Running BacksThe Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks. https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1206816955224772608For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsAs I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position. https://twitter.com/draftroompod/status/1207335740704735232As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. Saturday DFS Week 16 – Bills @ Patriots – 4:25 PM EST Opening Line: New England -6.5 | Over/Under 38.5The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).Quarterbacks, DefensesBoth the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football. There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.Running BacksThe best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsStarting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks. Saturday DFS Week 16 – Rams @ 49ers – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -6.5 | Over/Under 46Quarterbacks, DefensesBoth the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers. Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught. Running BackTodd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800). Wide Receivers, Tight EndsNeither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G. As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks. Image via Keith Allison 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLMLBNHL 11/22 DFS and Betting Winners: Texans Light it up Vincent Pensabene 4 years ago written by Vincent Pensabene A look back at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 11/22 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Gold right here! DFS Pro Cheat Sheets, projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats with our DFS Pros and more! 11/22 Win Daily DFS: DeAndre Hopkins Here is a snippet from the DFS Week 12 Thursday Night Showdown Preview article written by David Jones. Deshaun Watson had the best game out of every skill position player during the Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans game as he had a solid performance. Hopkins had six catches on eight targets for 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Outlook for the rest of the season: DeAndre Hopkins is a Top Five wide receiver in the NFL this season. Deshaun Watson is always throwing in Hopkins’ direction as he has the second-most targets so far this season after this TNF matchup. He also has 52 catches that resulted in a first down. If you choose to make DeAndre Hopkins your MVP player, expect a dominant DFS performance. 11/22 Win Daily DFS Winner: Capper SteveHere is a snippet of last night’s Sports Betting Picks from Capper Steve. He went 2-0 on his picks yesterday and if you followed his action, you would be up to four units. Capper Steve is one of the best in the business and is giving away his picks for all Premium members of the Win Daily family. His picks alone make you a surplus so what are you waiting for?11/22 Win Daily DFS Winner: Boston Bruins First LineHere is a snippet from the NHL DFS Daily Hot Shot article written by Richard Masana. The Boston Bruins had a rough week going into this game against the Buffalo Sabres. Bergeron finished with an assist, Marchand had two goals and Pastrnak had a goal and assist. They scored all three goals in the game for the Bruins and were the reason they won the game. Outlook for the rest of the season: Boston’s first line is one of the best in the NHL. Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are both Top five in points and goals this season. They control the game and are a huge reason why the Bruins are third in the conference. Expect Boston to continue being this dominant and make you a lot of money if you take them. 11/22 DFS Winner: Will Fuller VHere is another snippet from the DFS Week 12 Thursday Night Showdown Preview article written by David Jones. David mentioned that one of his MVP pivots would be Will Fuller and he definitely was worth the play. Fuller finished with seven catches for 140 yards against the Colts.Outlook for the rest of the season: What a way to come back from missing a month of action due to injury. Fuller had an injury scare after a 51-yard play but had his second-highest yardage game of the season. He should wreak havoc after next week’s game against the New England Patriots.David Jones won another showdown and is probably the best in the business at taking these difficult to win tournaments down. Congrats Davis!! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy Sports DFS: Fades/Plays- Injury Report StixPicks 4 years ago written by StixPicks Wow. What an ending to the Week 11 Bengals vs. Steelers game. We hope that anybody who was injured has a non-eventful and full recovery. From a DFS perspective, next week will be teeming with fades and plays as a result of that game. As for this week’s injury report, there are a few players to keep an on eye on leading up to Sunday. Make sure to follow me on Twitter for more frequent updates. Note that all of the prices included are from FanDuel.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Will Fuller ($6,300)Fuller is returning to action after a long layoff due to a hamstring injury. The problem with trusting him in cash is that last year around this same time, Fuller came back from a hamstring injury and ended up tearing his ACL. I’m not saying that will happen again, but there is an intimate connection between the ACL and the hamstrings and there is warranted cause for concern due to his specific history. Add in his price and I’m probably looking to pay down for another piece of this game (i.e. Marquise Brown). With all of that said, Fuller is an average play against this solid Ravens secondary as he’s a big play waiting to happen. Just make sure to fade him in cash.Marquise Brown ($5,600)I’ll be completely honest here: I have no idea what the Ravens are doing with Marquise Brown. He’s been dealing with a (presumably) high ankle sprain for more than a month now and last week he played his fewest snaps of the season since Week One. Adding to the mystery is that this week he went from limited practice to no practice at all on Thursday. As of now, the Ravens have not released their final practice report, but even if they did I’m not sure how much it would help. Brown has been downgraded and upgraded in practice all season long. The real problem with projecting his injury outlook this week is that he was effective on the snaps that he did play last week. Granted it was against the Bengals, but production is production. Ultimately, Brown is a fade for me in cash, but if he’s active (and I expect him to be active) he’s hard to pass up on this week against the Texans in tournaments.Jordan Howard ($6,100)As of just yesterday, it was announced that Howard was not cleared for contact and was a limited practice participant all week. I would be surprised if he is active on Sunday as a “stinger” that has lingered for two weeks indicates that there was actual structural damage to a nerve at some point and that takes a few weeks to truly heal. This opens the door for Miles Sanders ($5,600) and Dallas Goedert ($5,00). Neither of these guys are slam dunk plays as they are facing Tom Brady off a bye, but the game script should play in their favor. I wouldn’t play them both in one lineup, but now that Alshon Jeffery has been ruled out, Sanders or Goedert make for solid “free square” plays in cash games for some extra spending elsewhere. However, Sanders in tournaments as he has a low ceiling.Le’Veon Bell ($7,400)Next on the Fades/Plays Injury Report is Le’Veon Bell. He is listed as questionable with “ribs/knee/illness” and this is enough to scare me away from him this week. Last week he was saved by a touchdown, and this week against Washington could be an atrocity of a football game. This game could very well end in a 10-3 nightmare as Washington is dead last in player per game behind the next best team by a massive gap of 11 plays per game. Add in that Bell’s health is sub-optimal and I’m fading Bell in all formats this week.Emmanuel Sanders ($6,900)As I mentioned earlier this week, Sanders is not expected to play. If you’re in need of a deep tournament play, look at Deebo Samuel ($5,600) as he’s begun coming into his own in this offense. Against the Cardinals pass defense, Samuel could eat this week.Cooper Kupp ($13,500)Kupp is apparently dealing with a stomach bug that kept him out of practice on Friday. Sean McVay said he expects him to be ready for Sunday night, but I would fade Kupp in the captain spot and in cash games. In Week One Evans dealt with a stomach bug as well and put up a stinker. Illnesses are nothing to mess with and I would rather be safe than sorry. Conversely, this could be a volume play in tournaments for Robert Woods ($12,000) and Todd Gurley at just $7,000. Just keep in mind that Gurley is a volatile play week to week due to the osteoarthritis in his knee.David Montgomery ($6,400)Fade Montgomery in all formats. A DFS darling last week, Montgomery should not be in your lineups if he’s active. He was downgraded due to an ankle injury this week and now Matt Nagy is calling him a game time decision. The Bears offense is going nowhere with Tru-bad-ski under center and even if he’s active this injury is clearly limiting him. Still not convinced? Well, the Rams are third in rushing DVOA and over the last three weeks are only giving up 61 rushing yards per game. Fade Montgomery and this entire Bears offense as I’m concerned.Thank you for reading the DFS Fades/Plays- Injury Report! Be sure to follow me on Twitter and feel free to DM me any questions. I’ll do my best to update this article as news rolls in. Good luck!THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE. Courtesy of Jeffrey Beall. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL DFS: Week Eight Injury Watch 4 years ago written by Week Eight brought yet another flurry of injuries to discuss as the NFL season carries on. As always I’ll mention every DFS relevant player and their respective injury (or suspected injury) and what to expect moving forward from a medical perspective. Enjoy this first version of the Week Eight Injury Watch!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Adam ThielenThielen injured his hamstring on Sunday afternoon in the first half against the Lions, and was ruled out for the rest of the game. Thielen and the Vikings remain optimistic about his availability, but I’m not so certain we should follow suit. As I’ve mentioned week after week, grade I and grade II hamstring strains can take anywhere from one to three weeks to heal. Thielen did not practice Tuesday, only adding to the concern that the swelling and pain are likely still significant. It would be an extraordinary feat if Thielen is able to play on Thursday.Update: Thielen has been officially ruled out.Kerryon JohnsonKerryon is now on IR following a “procedure” on Tuesday. Consider firing up Ty Johnson up who is $4,900 on Draft Kings and $5,200 on FanDuel.Will FullerFuller, who has a history of hamstring strains, has already been ruled out by the Texans so consider both Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills as they are under $6,000 on FanDuel and under $5,000 on Draft Kings.Matt RyanRyan was injured after being sacked by Aaron Donald on Sunday. I tweeted about it here. The Falcons are acting like it isn’t too serious, but I have my concerns. Based on the mechanism of injury, he either has an eversion ankle sprain (think Keke Coutee in the preseason) or a high ankle sprain (think Saquon Barkley). Both of those injuries (if significant enough) can cost players between one and four weeks. Check back with me about Ryan’s availability later this week after more reports become available. Update: Ryan did not practice on Wednesday but there are reports that he could be good to go on Sunday. This tells us he likely avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain. Check back with me for further updates.Davante AdamsThursday marks four weeks since Adams picked up this grade II turf toe injury, making Week Eight his first real shot at playing again. Grade II turf toe can take between four and six weeks to heal, so it isn’t a slam dunk that he’ll play just yet. There is still a chance that the pain has no fully subsided, so make sure to bookmark this article as I’ll continue to update it as the week progresses.Christian KirkNext up on the DFS Week Weight Injury Watch is Christian Kirk. Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four and like Adams, has his first legitimate shot at suiting up on Sunday. Last week he was a game time decision, so that tells us that he’s getting close. As always, make sure to check back with me for more updates.Update: Kirk practiced again in a limited capacity on Wednesday. This is a sign that he is indeed moving towards being active on Sunday against the Saints.David JohnsonLast week D.J. was the cause of many headaches around the DFS community as his ankle injury was evidently much more severe than Kingsbury made it sound. Hopefully you read my Final Injury Report here and backed off of your D.J. shares. This week, I’ll continue to monitor his progress and try to gather new information before Sunday. Update: Johnson did not practice on Wednesday but that doesn’t move the needle on his status one way or the other. As the week progresses, I’ll continue to watch his status. With the signing of Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris it’s important to know that third string running back D.J. Foster is also injured. Neither of those two newly signed backs have ever led a backfield and together have been cut by four or five teams within the last calendar year. Additionally, they profile as a pass catcher and a grinder respectively. All of this is to say that I believe they’re merely depth signings with the Cardinals keeping worst case scenario in mind.AdditionsAdrian PetersonPeterson told reporters this week that he had an MRI and was diagnosed with a grade II lateral ankle sprain and a grade I high ankle sprain. Now, part of me does not believe the full extent of this diagnosis as no human on this planet would play in an NFL game with these injuries. The flip side of my thinking is that AP has proven to us time after time that he is not like the rest of us. In fact, he returned to NFL action and was in the running for MVP in 2013 just nine months removed from an ACL tear. The reality is that the truth about his current injuries probably lies somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately, “the middle” is significant enough to scare me away from using much of AP tonight, especially in cash. Alvin KamaraKamara is banged up and missed practice on Wednesday as he is currently dealing with a knee sprain (likely MCL) and a high ankle sprain (some people in the media like to say “high ankle issue” but make no mistake, it is indeed a sprain despite the severity). There is also a belief that since the previously mentioned Zach Zenner was released by the Saints that Kamara is close to returning. Although this could be true, there is also a good chance Zenner was signed prior to knowing the severity or extent of Kamara’s injuries. The point I’m making is that I’m not convinced Kamara plays this week just yet.Drew BreesBrees’ situation is still cloudy as he just started practicing again in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He tells the media it’s his plan to start, but still isn’t sure of his strength. As a quarterback, he requires close to full strength and definitely full fine motor control of his surgically repaired thumb making me slightly concerned about him playing this week. On average, athletes can return to sport between four and seven weeks. One specific study done by Werner and colleagues found that in a sample of nine skill position football players, the return to sport time was seven weeks. Arguments against Brees returning are obvious: the Saints have not lost since his injury, Teddy Bridgewater is rolling, and NOLA has a Week Nine bye. Why bring Brees back this week if he’s admittedly not sure of himself just yet? I would not be surprised if Brees waits until after Week Nine, but stay tuned for more updates.That’s it for the DFS Week Eight Injury Watch. Start building those lineups and check back with me for up to the minute injury updates.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE. Image courtesy of Keith Allison. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Week 6 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: I Got a Thielen Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago written by Joel Bartilotta Last week’s article was easily my best of the season. We actually had Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin as our cash game plays and both players finished as Top-5 WRs for the week. We also had Will Fuller in our GPP section and needless to say, that went well too with him likely dropping the highest point total of the season. Hopefully, we can continue that success here and ride these WRs to some more cash. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 6 wide receiver breakdown. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @BartilottajoelWeek 6 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays Adam Thielen, MIN vs. PHI DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200) Thielen made a fuss about the lack of passing going on in Minnesota and it’s clear the coaches listened when you see his Week 5 performance. Thielen led the way with seven catches for 130 yards and two TDs. That’s the guy we saw throughout the majority of 2018, with Thielen leading the team with 113 receptions for 1,373 yards and nine TDs. The simple fact is, this team needs to throw the ball more and 27 attempts last week indicate that they’re starting to realize it. Throwing the ball against Philly is the optimal strategy against this defense too, with the Eagles owning a 32nd OPRK against WRs while allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL. Terry McLaurin, WSH at MIA DK ($6,000) FD ($6,400) The man known as “Scary Terry” has been doing work all season long and this may actually be his best matchup of the season. Let’s begin with that opposition, facing a Dolphins team who ranks last in both yards and points surrendered. That’s also evident when you see that they own a 25th OPRK against wide receivers this season. That’s all good news for McLaurin, as this dude has established himself as the focal point of the Redskins offense. In fact, he leads the club with a 19.4 percent team target share while playing 90.4 percent of the snaps. That’s led to him collecting 19 receptions for 308 receiving yards and three TDs, which is huge against a crappy defense like this. Week 6 Wide Receiver GPP Plays Will Fuller, HOU at KC DK ($6,000) FD ($6,600) Let’s go back to the well with Fuller. All of the indicators told us that this was just a matter of time and 56.7 DK points in Week 5 is all the regression we could ask for. The facts remain the same: He’s one of the league leaders in air yards per target and is playing on nearly 98 percent of the team’s snaps. That pairs beautifully with his 107.2 air yards per game, which is simply one of the best marks in the NFL. The best part about this play might be the matchup though, with Kansas City ranked 21st in OPRK against WRs this season after allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL last year. Mike Williams, LAC vs. PIT DK ($4,600) FD ($6,200) Williams will only be available in the Sunday Night slates but he is one of my favorite plays of the week. The $4,600 price tag on DK is inexcusable and I simply can’t understand why he’s so affordable. Not only has Williams played 91 percent of the snaps over his last two games, he’s also got 20 targets in that span while averaging 100 air yards per game this season. That’s really all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply, particularly someone as talented as Williams. We’re talking about a freak specimen who scored 10 TDs last year in his sophomore season. The matchup against Pittsburgh is the icing on the cake, with the Steelers allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing WRs last season while sitting 17th in total defense this year. Week 6 Wide Receiver Punt Plays Byron Pringle, KC vs. HOU DK ($3,500) FD ($4,500) This is the best punt play of the slate. How often do you see the top WR for the best offense in football priced this cheaply? Ok, that might be stretching a bit but he was the best wide receiver for the Chiefs in Week 5. That was clear when he collected six catches for 103 yards and a TD on nine targets. Playing 78 percent of the snaps may have been the most encouraging sign, as he’ll surely reach that total again if Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins are out. He may have usurped Mecole Hardman on the depth chart too, playing 10 more snaps than him in Week 5. Facing Houston is the final piece to the puzzle, with the Texans owning a 31st OPRK against WRs according to DraftKings. Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. DAL DK ($4,000) FD ($5,400) This is totally risky but part of me feels like either Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder is going to bounce back here. Everyone is doubting these guys because of this horrendous Jets offense but getting Sam Darnold back is exactly what the doctor ordered (no pun intended). This is one of the most talented QBs in the game and it should add exponential value to these Jets wide receivers. The reason I like Crowder is because he was Darnold’s go-to guy in Week 1, leading the NFL with 14 receptions on 17 targets. He actually played at least 90 percent of the snaps in the first three weeks and we expect that total to jump back here with Darnold back behind center While Dallas does have a tough defense, the fact that New York enters this matchup as an 8.5-point underdog should force them to throw a ton. 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL NFL DFS Week 6 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones 5 years ago written by Week 6 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!David also won back-to-back GPPs!There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning. Quarterbacks:We have a handful of elite quarterbacks in elite spots this week. I don’t think you want to “punt” QB in Week Six NFL DFS. Stud Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($8,000 FD,$6,400 DK)My top guy this week has got to be Matt Ryan, who is going up against the terrible Arizona Cardinals pass defense. They have given up 12 touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL) through the air in the first five games. The ONLY thing the Atlanta Falcons have is an elite passing game. The Dirty Birds are ranked only behind Kansas City and the Rams in total pass offense. Ryan has 12 touchdowns (2nd in NFL) and over 300 yards in ALL five games. The Atlanta run game is non existent so Ryan will need to continue to push the ball down the field by airing it out to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper. It is also not wise to try and run against the Cardinals rush defense. They have surprisingly only given up two scores on the ground the entire season. Dan Quinn better attack what works against the Cardinals here if he wants to try and crawl out of that hot seat he is on with Arthur Blank. Ryan is 100% safe in cash games, and will be on my main lineup in GPPs. Lock him in with Hooper and whichever other wide receiver you can fit.Stud Quarterback Pivots: Patrick Mahomes (should play, low ownership), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun WatsonMid Quarterback: Kyler Murray ($7,700 FD, $6,500 DK)The last two weeks the quarterback who played the Falcons has been on the Millionaire Maker team (Mariota and Watson). Marcus Mariota bounced back from an embarrassing zero touchdown game against the Jaguars to throw three touchdowns in ATL and last week Watson threw for five. Are we seeing a pattern here? Kyler’s bounce back game starts at 4:05 ET this Sunday. The Falcons have given up 12 receiving touchdowns this season. Murray has been about as constant (of a fantasy scorer) as you could hope for early in his rookie season. He is a dual threat QB who can score through the air or on the ground. The last two weeks he has run for a touchdown in both games. Last week he ran for 93 yards against Cincinnati and threw for 253. Murray’s upside versus this defense and price makes him a nice mid tier NFL DFS play this week. Mid Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott, Russell WilsonI have zero interest in any cheaper quarterbacks. Running BacksUpdate: Kamara popped up with ankle issue at Thursdays practice. Bumping him down slightly. I am liking mid range RBs more and more this week. Stud RB: Alvin Kamara ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK)I am going with Alvin Kamara as my top high priced running back. Last week against the Bucs it was Teddy Bridgewater and Michael Thomas’ time to shine but against the Jags, the Saints should lean on their stud running back. The Jacksonville defense is giving up a league most 5.5 yards per carry and are tied for second most rushing touchdowns allowed (six). Kamara will obviously get his opportunities to run but also benefits by being targeted like the Saints WR2. You should always be looking to target players who get the ball in their hands the most on the offense and that is exactly what we have with Kamara. He is too talented to only have one rushing TD and one receiving TD on the year. I am calling for him to double that this week. Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott Mid RB: Chris Carson ($7,200 FD, $6,000 DK)The Seahawks get the Browns on a short week after getting absolutely embarrassed on Monday Night Football. The Browns gave up three touchdowns to the running back against the 49ers. In the past two games Carson has gotten at least 22 carries and over 100 yards. He seems all but guaranteed to exceed value here. The Browns are far more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Carson should also get a few receiving targets. He caught a touchdown last game and one in the season opener. He has not run one in since game one but I think that changes here. He has multiple TD upside and should not be heavily owned in NFL DFS with so many options at running back. The ONLY thing that worries me is if Russell Wilson vultures a TD from him. If you play Carson, don’t do it on the same team as Wilson. Mid Pivots: Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette (I really like all three of these guys and rank them very close to Carson. Paying down for two cheaper running backs isn’t a bad strategy this week) Lev Bell on DraftKings. Punt RB: Malcolm Brown, Joe Mixon (gets first TD), Chase Edmonds (If David Johnson is out) Kenyan Drake (DK)Update: David Johnson looks like he is going to play. You can’t play Chase Edmonds if he is in. Update: Todd Gurley looks like he is going to sit. Malcolm Brown will start and is min price. You have to get some share. I listed more running backs than normal here, but there is a lot to like. I do not think you need to “dumpster dive”. Everyone above is listed in order of preference. Wide Receiver Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK) Smash spot for Julio. I wrote up Matt Ryan as my top quarterback and this is his number one option. I really don’t see a way that Julio fails here. I think he easily surpasses 100 yards and gets targeted in the Red Zone whenever they are close. Julio’s brute strength makes him a touchdown threat anywhere on the field. He can run through defenders and once he gets going, no one will be able to catch him. I also don’t believe the Falcons will dial back on the passing game even if they are winning because they don’t have a running back, and absolutely have to win this game. Jones let us down last week, but I’ll let that scare everyone else off him, not me. Stud Pivots: Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam ThielenMid WR: Will Fuller ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK)Oh yes, I am going right back, and it is going to be glorious. If you think the Will Fuller faders were mad last week, wait until he gets in the end zone again this week. Everyone is going to say fade him because it is unsustainable, which three touchdowns is, but he is still only $6,600 on FanDuel!? He was targeted 16 times last week and caught 14! That is the Will Fuller I know. The Cheifs’ are going to be ready for this game, and I expect them to win, which means more passing for Watson and the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are ranked about mid tier in pass defense but that’s all about to change. They really don’t look good, plus they have not had much real competition. Here are the quarterbacks they have faced: Foles/Minshew, Carr, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford and Jacoby Brissett. DeShaun Watson is about to give this defense a run for it’s money, and I will take Fuller over Hopkins at a supreme discount in NFL DFS.Mid WR Pivots: Michael Gallup (in my main lineup), Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark (All very solid options)Value WR: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)A ridiculously low price, for a Hall of Fame receiver vs a terrible defense. The Atlanta Falcons are tied with the Cardinals and the Dolphins for the second most touchdowns given to wideouts. Receiving options against them are averaging 8.5 yards per catch. Larry Fitz knows he will be retiring soon however he is still way outperforming expectations. He seems like a guy who wants to get a couple more big games in before he throws in the towel and he knows how to pick them. I see him getting around 10 targets and a touchdown in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals running back, David Johnson, is questionable for the game. If he is out, bump up Fitz even further. At his price he is a phenomenal NFL DFS receiver to target. WR Value Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Dede Westbrook, Christian Kirk (if he plays)Update: WR Deep Value: Terry McLauin, KeeSean Johnson (don’t play if Kirk in), Marquise Goodwin, DeVante ParkerUpdate: Remove KeeSean Johnson if Kirk plays, removed Paul Richardson with Terry McLaurin in. Tight EndTight End: Austin Hooper ($6,400 FD, $5,000 DK)Duh. Against the Cardinals, in a potential shootout, and one of the league’s most productive tight ends to start the season. Easy number one, but will be highly owned. Still, I will have a lot of him and roster him on my main team. I have said it before, sometimes it is chalk because it is the best play. Don’t auto fade the best play in NFL DFS. Lock him in and figure out how to be different at other positions. Tight End Pivots: George Kittle, Travis KelceDefense I don’t think their is a big separation on NFL DFS defense this week. There is nothing I “love”. You do not have to pay all the way up for the Cowboys, but if you can fit them, they feel “safe”. I am not sure that “safe” wins GPP’s this week, but is will double you up in cash.Order Updated Cowboys – Jets are bad and I am not expecting much from their QB Sam Darnold. If they can limit Lev Bell they should have not problem.Seattle – Browns looked like trashJaguars – I don’t believe in Teddy B, Kamara ankle issueRedskins – Face the DolphinsRams – They can stop the run but are lacking in pass D, luckily San Fran doesn’t have elite wide receivers. Wade Phillips should be able to slow down this offense.Dolphins -Two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price. 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports NFL DFS Week 5 Reactions and Outlooks: Win Daily Dozen adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com NFL Week 5 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 6 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Will FullerAll analysts at Win Daily were touting Will Fuller all week so I really hope you listened. Not only did he have a big game, but Fuller’s Week 5 performance was one for the ages. Via ESPN.com this was the highest Fantasy point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of 2013. Fuller is the first wide receiver to score that many points since Terrell Owens scored 54.8 in Week 16 in 2000. At his price of $4,500, he was so easy to fit into any lineup. Fuller caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday’s 53-32 win against the Falcons. He scored over 50 fantasy points. The Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller stack scored over 100 fantasy points. Fuller was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 31 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. A lot of people saw this big game coming for Fuller. With the Texans facing the Chiefs next week Fuller is bound to be extremely popular, even with his salary increased to $6,000.Michael ThomasThomas secured 11 of 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas has not missed a step since Teddy Bridgewater took over, but his price was low at $6,600. In Week 6 his price has gone up to $7,800. He is going to have very high ownership because of this next week. But as sharp DFS players know, you should always fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. We saw it this week with both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Both were over $7,700 and 20 percent ownership, and it did not pay off. Thomas was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 25 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Amari CooperWill Fuller led Week 5 in receiving yards for a few hours before Amari Cooper went over 225 receiving yards in the later portion on Sunday. You need to identify top-end wide receiver talents at the cheaper price tags. Cooper had ownership of just 3.4 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Someone to keep in mind that fits the high wide receiver talent pool under $7,000 for Week 6 is Odell Beckham Jr. at $6,800. Aaron JonesIt’s a shame that not more people played Aaron Jones in Week 5. He was set up for a smash spot because of the injury to Jamaal Williams. There should have been no question of how many touches he would receive. Jones was owned in just 11.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 17.6 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. The main takeaway here from Jones’ four-touchdown performance is that injuries matter A LOT. Injuries might be a more important factor than matchups. If you followed that type of thinking you would have played Jones over a guy with a great matchup in the same game in Ezekiel Elliott. He did not nearly have as much production in Week 6. One could make the argument that was because the Cowboys were banged up at the offensive line position. Eagles D/STThe rule for DFS has usually been to pay down at defense. However, lately this season we have seen defenses put up over 30 fantasy points. In most cases, it has been for expensive defenses that are in obvious great matchups. The Eagles D/ST had ownership of just 6.5 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest, and 3.2 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. These ownership percentages were extremely low compared to the Panthers D/ST. That unit was by far the highest owned on the main slate. They had ownership of 32.1 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. They were also in 13.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. As we look to Week 6 with the Cowboys playing the Jets this might be a spot worth paying up for in both cash and GPP formats if Sam Darnold misses the game. Adam ThielenYou know the old saying “Squeaky wheel gets the grease?” Well, nothing could have been more apparent on Sunday. Adam Thielen was the wheel getting all the grease in Minnesota. Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen had ownership of five percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. He had ownership of 13.1 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. In Week 6, Thielen gets an equally great matchup against the Eagles. His salary remains the same at $6,700. Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffrey is a pretty good football player. He scored 50.7 fantasy points in Week 5. He now has scored 30 or more points in four of his five games so far this season. In the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest his ownership was just at 56.1 percent. What that translates to is that almost 44 percent of lineups did not feature him in cash. As a public service announcement to all, when McCaffrey is on the main slate you must lock him into your cash lineups. He is a must-play. However, we will be without him in Week 6, because the Panthers are playing an early game on Sunday. Austin HooperWe love targeting tight ends that play the Arizona Cardinals. Well, at least we like good tight ends that play them. The most popular play at tight end in Tyler Eifert was only able to score 3.4 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 5. He was in 26.8 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. In Week 6, the Cardinals will host the Atlanta Falcons. That is the prime spot for Austin Hooper. He is coming off another productive performance in Week 5 where he had six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. The nine targets were a team-high. With 42 targets through the first five weeks, Hooper is entering elite status at tight end. He will surely be heavily owned in Week 6, but all signs point to a productive outing. Auden TateDFS players should always be fading the high-priced chalkier wide receivers. But we should always be buying the low-priced chalkier wide receivers. That receiver was Auden Tate in Week 5. He was priced at $3,500. Tate was owned in 35.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in a whopping 77 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Though things looked bleak in the first half for Tate with Andy Dalton completing just four passes, he turned things around in the second half. Tate finished the day with one touchdown reception and three receptions on a total of six targets. He is going to be $4,500 in Week 6, but will most likely see coverage from Marlon Humphrey from Baltimore, so he is somebody I will be fading. Leonard FournetteHeading into Week 5, Fournette was averaging right around 24 touches per game but had yet to score a touchdown. He finally broke his touchdown drought by scoring from one yard out. Fournette was owned in 14.3 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in 21 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Fournette had 27 touches in Week 5 and because of the guaranteed volume, he needs to be considered in Week 6 with his salary at just $6,700. The matchup is difficult though, with the Jaguars playing the Saints. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Fournette profiles as a GPP play in Week 6. DJ CharkThere may not be a bigger WR surprise than D.J. Chark. After Week 5, he now has five touchdown receptions in just as many games. Chark was owned in just 3.6 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Now people are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. At just $5,500 entering Week 6 Chark is too cheap. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Dede Westbrook, who is priced at $5,100, is also worth considering. The Saints have struggled against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.Dalvin CookNo matter what team Cook faces he always seems to deliver for his fantasy owners. Cook was owned in 13.2 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in just 12.1 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Cook has now scored at least 19 fantasy points in every single game this season. He should be considered a lock-in your lineup in Week 6 when the Vikings play the Eagles. Though the Eagles have not allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing rusher this season they have allowed 13 receptions to the position over the past two weeks. Cook has seen 14 targets in his last two games and is averaging 22.6 touches per game. His salary remains at $8,400 in Week 6. Image Via Jeffrey Beall 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
