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Week 9 NFL DFS

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 10

StixPicks 1 year ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back for the Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 10:
– Dallas Cowboys (28.5)
– Cincinnatti Bengals (26.75)
– Seattle Seahawks (25)
– Detroit Lions (25.75)
– San Francisco 49ers (24.25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments. This week, the safest floor is Joe Burrow ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) and likely a staple for the field in cash game contests.

Jared Goff ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – A little too pricey for me on FanDuel but an excellent value on DraftKings. Goff is leading the pack in terms of expected passing yards in the AETY Model (right there with Joe Burrow) and gets a cake matchup against the Chargers’ atrocious pass defense. In terms of ownership, it looks like he’ll be sub 5% owned and more of a GPP option, but I think he’s plenty safe for cash games. The downside here is the Lions’ love for running the football in the red-zone.

Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price and an even better matchup. I do have concerns that Washington can’t stay in the game and there is also some potential weather issues to keep an eye on. Having said that, Geno Smith is going to be extremely popular and offers our cash game builds a piece of one of the higher team totals on the slate. Washington is the second worst pass defense we have to pick-on in Week 10 NFL DFS.

Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas
Baker Mayfield ($5,100 / $6,600 FD) – GPP lineups only. The AETY Model grades Baker Mayfield as the top quarterback value on this slate against a beat-up, pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The concern here (outside of it being Baker Mayfield) is the low-total of 39 points and the Titans’ extremely slow pace of play (which has gotten better under Will Levis). I don’t really see a path to either of these teams getting a lot of stops and we could see this one shoot well over the total… it could also suck.

Stack Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton
Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry
Taylor Heinicke ($5,100 DK Only) – GPP only, but I’m digging the stack-ability and value with Taylor Heinicke. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense is non-existent and paid dividends last week with our Watson/Cooper stacks. The bright-side here is that Atlanta’s defense is struggling and should allow Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ plenty of opportunities to turn this into a shootout. The total continues to be on the rise at sportsbooks and thats a trend a love to see. It appears the Arizona Cardinals are going to be the highest owned defense and we can leverage the hell out of that with Heinicke.

Stack Options: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Amazing price for Derrick Henry. This is not a great matchup but I love the upside a 5% owned Derrick Henry provides with the new mobility and play-action with Will Levis. This is a prime GPP play this week and I’ll have plenty.
Tony Pollard ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel as a double-digit home favorite. I’ll lock in Pollard for my cash game lineups and leave it at that. I will NOT talk you off him in GPPs, but I do have concerns the Cowboys are up by 30 early and we see a lot more Rico Dowdle.
Kenneth Walker ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Playing running backs against the Washington Commanders is going to be a thing moving forward (just gave up damn-near seven yards-per-carry to New England). We love Stevenson last week and I love Walker even more this week. The touchdown equity here is top-tier and so is the leverage against a chalky Geno Smith.
Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Much better price on DraftKings but with no Tee Higgins and a plus-matchup against the Texans’ banged up defense, Mixon should warrant some of the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with playing Mixon in all formats.
He Who Shall Not Be Named ($6,000 DK / $6,600 FD) – Art Smith, please use your brain. This is the nut matchup for running backs in what should be a back-and-forth affair. If you can stomach it, I’m going right back to it.
Najee Harris ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great matchup, great price. When it matters, the ball is getting into the hands of Najee Harris and he offers us some nice salary relief and low ownership.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr., Aaron Jones, Alexander Mattison

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Ja’Maar Chase	Brandon Aiyuk
Brandon Aiyuk	Chris Olave	Amari Cooper
Diontae Johnson	Keenan Allen	Ja’Maar Chase
Keenan Allen	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DeAndre Hopkins
Ja’Maar Chase	Marquise Brown	George Pickens
DeAndre Hopkins	Terry McLaurin	Chris Olave
CeeDee Lamb	Amari Cooper	Calvin Ridley
Chris Olave	CeeDee Lamb	DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown	DeAndre Hopkins	Marquise Brown
Robert Woods	Calvin Ridley	Diontae Johnson

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,600 FD) – My top-tier WR1 on this slate (especially for full PPR formats like DraftKings)
Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – There is literally no one on this Tennessee secondary that can cover Mike Evans with Sean Murphy-Bunting OUT. If this game can get some pace, Mike Evans will be a slate-breaker around 5% ownership. Extremely affordable on FanDuel.
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Another home-run type of play like Mike Evans against Emmanuel Forbes and this Washington secondary. If the weather is solid, fire up all of the DK Metcalf you can. He will absolutely destroy the man-coverage Washington continues to run at a high-rate.
Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just a safe, cash-game type of play with some additional upside in the tank. The Vikings are more of a pass-funnel defense who will run a ton of Cover-3 and the league’s highest blitz rate. I love Olave’s floor in this matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Too cheap for the banged-up pass-funnel, struggling secondary of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cash game staple and likely someone I’ll continue to lock into GPP lineups for the value.
Drake London ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD) – London is healthy and good-to-go against Marco Wilson and the worst secondary in the NFL. He’s going to be sub-5% owned and someone I’ll use as a big GPP value as leverage off of a chalky Diontae Johnson and Cardinals’ defense.
Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK / $6,600 FD) – Way too cheap now with Kyler Murray back. No need to overthink this one. Kyler absolutely abuses his “X” wide receiver against man coverage and we will see a lot of that with Atlanta’s defense.
Punt Values: Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DK / $6,200 FD), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD), Michael Gallup ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD), Trey Palmer ($3,200 DK ONLY), Rondale Moore ($3,000 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell (cash-viable at his ownership), Diontae Johnson

Tight-Ends

Sam LaPorta ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD) – With TJ Hockenson banged up, Sam LaPorta is my pay-up at the tight-end position if you want to do so. The Chargers play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-1 and that is where LaPorta has been targeted at an elite clip.
Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Again… Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in NFL DFS GPP lineups while everyone flocks to Trey McBride.
Trey McBride ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings despite playing with his third quarterback in three weeks. I’m okay with McBride if you need the salary relief and he should have plenty of opportunities to work against Atlanta when they show Cover-2, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside here.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Logan Thomas

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Tony Pollard
Chris Olave
DeAndre Hopkins
Joe Mixon
Geno Smith

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

DeAndre Hopkins
Mike Evans
DK Metcalf
Derrick Henry

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

1 year ago 0 comments

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 9

StixPicks 1 year ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back for the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a GROSS 10-game slate with some disgusting totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 9:
– Baltimore Ravens (25)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25)
– New Orleans Saints (24.75)
– Cleveland Browns (23.5)
– Indianapolis Colts (23)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. It’s obvious the two safest plays at the QB position this week are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments.

Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD) – More interested again on DraftKings, but Dak Prescott is one of the higher values in the AETY Model against a pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia. For a weak slate, this is the game most likely to provide back-and-forth fantasy fireworks.

Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson
Bring-Back Options: A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift, DeVonta Smith
Derek Carr ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – On DraftKings, Carr is a fantastic value for both Cash Game Lineups and GPP builds. As of now, Carr is likely to get the QB spot for my cash game lineup, but with how popular Alvin Kamara is, Carr and this passing attack (against another pass-funnel defense in Chicago) offers us nice leverage in GPPs.

Stack Options: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed
Bring-Back Options: D.J. Moore (or no one, lol)
Jordan Love ($5,500 DK ONLY) – GPP punt-play only, but believe it or not, Jordan Love is one of the AETY Model’s top values. As terrible as he looks playing Quarterback, he does put up fantasy points and has three outings of over 3.5x value. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass-funnel and they simply do not have quality personnel in the secondary to make plays (you could argue the Packers’ do not have quality personnel in the passing game, lol). This is the exact same matchup we attacked last week with our love for Dak Prescott.

Stack Options: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave
Bring-Back Options: Likely no one if Matt Stafford is OUT
DeShaun Watson ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – GPP only, but DeShaun Watson is cheaper than Jordan Love, Sam Howell, and Daniel Jones… despite the injury and potential attitude issues, the Browns are in a playoff hunt and take on a putrid Cardinals’ defense. It sounds like Watson is good to go and would it really surprise you if Watson balled out against a weak opponent? He’s going to be in that 1-3% ownership range with one of the higher probabilities of slate-breaking value if you choose to pay down at quarterback.

Stack Options: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DK / $8,600 FD) – One of my favorite GPP plays as the whole field will try to get the extra money for Alvin Kamara. The Raiders’ defense is terrible and grades 3rd-to-last in run defense DVOA on this slate. With Daniel Jones back, look for this offense to be much more competent and utilize Barkley in every way that they can. It’s very likely we see Saquon under 10% in ownership.
Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – Extremely affordable on both outlets against a defense that grades 4th-to-last in run defense DVOA. The Raiders’ certainly struggle to move the ball in general, but at home with a rookie quarterback, Josh Jacobs should have a clear path to 20+ touches.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Would just go down to Jacobs or Bijan on FanDuel, but this is a fantastic DraftKings’ salary against the worst run defense in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see how much Zack Moss we continue to see this week, but Jonathan Taylor is a DraftKings’ NFL DFS cash game staple.
Bijan Robinson ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – For the love of God, Arthur Smith, please feature Bijan Robinson. It’s not the best of matchups, but this offense has to be on the rise with Desmond Ridder going to the bench. At the price, it’s hard to pass up the talent and HOPEFUL usage of Bijan Robinson.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup. Great expected usage bump with all of the injuries on this New England offense. Washington just traded away their best run stopper and pass-rushers.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – The punt-value at the running back position on DraftKings specifically. Personally, I have no interest in GPP contests but I’ll give Chubba and his slate-leading ownership a serious look in cash game formats.
Devin Singletary ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD) – The new chalk punt on the slate. Take it in cash.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (crazy-high ownership… consider in cash), D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Cooper Kupp	Davante Adams	AJ Brown
Davante Adams	AJ Brown	Amari Cooper
Puka Nacua	Cooper Kupp	DJ Moore
AJ Brown	DJ Moore	Davante Adams
Demario Douglas	Puka Nacua	DK Metcalf
Chris Olave	Adam Thielen	Chris Olave
Marquise Brown	Michael Pittman	Marquise Brown
Adam Thielen	Chris Olave	Cooper Kupp
Nico Collins	DK Metcalf	Mike Evans
Mike Evans	Amari Cooper	Puka Nacua

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

AJ Brown ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – He does it every week. Tough matchup, but is AJ Brown the best wide receiver in fantasy AND real life football?
CeeDee Lamb ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s going to be tough to prioritize both AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb, but I will certainly try my best to do so. CeeDee Lamb is in a fantastic matchup against a banged up, pass-funnel defense in what should be one of the only shootouts on the slate.
DK Metcalf ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Super cheap on FanDuel and going to be sub 5% owned while playing in the second highest totaled game on the board. It’s not a fantastic matchup but on the other hand, it’s not easy to cover DK Metcalf. If you’re on this game as a sneaky shootout (assuming most of the ownership goes towards DAL @ PHI), Metcalf should be a priority play in GPP builds.
Chris Olave ($6,300 DK / $6,900 FD) – Olave is due for a massive output one of these weeks and what better spot to do so than hosting the Bears’ secondary? Michael Thomas ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) is again a nice value target on the outside vs the Bears’ zone defense. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Arguably my favorite GPP play on the board. A cheap, WR1 in a plus-matchup is something I target on a weekly basis. If you have the stones to invest in a banged-up DeShaun Watson this week, give Amari Cooper serious consideration in a stack or as a low-owned one-off. The bookmakers seem to respect this Cleveland offense a lot this week as they hold the 4th highest implied team total on the slate.
Zay Flowers ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dumb price again. Cheap, high-floor exposure to a great passing game environment.
Demario Douglas ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – DraftKings cash-game staple with no Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker. This guy is legit as you know I’ve been talking about him for two months… it’s time. My only concern here is a very limited ceiling as he’ll likely be running more intermediate and underneath routes in the slot. At 20% ownership, it’ll likely be a fade for me in GPP contests.
Jonathan Mingo ($3,400 DK / $5,100 FD) – On the 1st and Stix Podcast, I talked a lot about Mingo and the coverage advantage against a Juju Brents-less Colts’ secondary, who will run a ton of Cover-3 zone. Mingo gets a significant boost in expected targets per routes ran against Cover-3 and we will continue to attack the outside of this Colts’ secondary. I’d much rather roll the dice on a breakout game coming for a 5% or less owned Mingo than pay $600 more for Douglas chalk.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Lockett, Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Romeo Doubs, Tank Dell, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson

Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – Only high-end tight-end on the slate now that Kirk Cousins is OUT. If everyone is going to pay-down at tight-end, Andrews makes a LOT of sense in all formats.
Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) & Jake Ferguson ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you’re looking for the cheap, red-zone exposure to the slate’s shootout, here you go.
Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,200 FD) – This dude is a receiver and will be the focal point of the Falcons’ passing attack that will be without Drake London. As EVERYONE goes to play a cheap Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in both cash and NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go, Kyle Pitts!

Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Luke Musgrave

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Devin Singletary
AJ Brown
Demario Douglas
Kyle Pitts
Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

DeShaun Watson
Amari Cooper
Kyle Pitts
Jonathan Mingo

1 year ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 9: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 2 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Back by popular demand is the combination article for Week 9 NFL DFS. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NEW: below is a summary of the top matchups based on offensive DVOA vs their opponents defensive DVOA (from footballoutsiders.com):

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks:

Josh Allen ($8,500 DK / $9,300 FD) – The clear QB1 on this slate by a mile. Take the best option in your cash game lineups and feel free to do so in your NFL DFS GPP builds as well, but I do have concerns for the ceiling here as the Bills are a large double-digit favorite against a horrific Jets offense.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a big fan of Geno Smith at his FanDuel price-tag, but he’s incredibly affordable on DraftKings in a fantastic matchup against the Arizona Cardinals defense we stack against on a weekly basis (27th in pass defense DVOA). Outside of Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen, there isn’t an easier quarterback to stack up.

GPP Favorites:

Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price on both NFL DFS outlets for the only true “lock” for 40+ pass attempts. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass funnel and the Bucs have what looks to be a healthy wide receiving core going into this matchup. The volume certainly makes Brady a valuable option at an affordable price-tag. Based on ownership, Brady is looking like a sub-5% play…
Trevor Lawrence ($5,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Unfortunately, Jacksonville hasn’t been playing at the fast pace we saw early on this season, but the passing volume should be there in this matchup with a higher total (48 points) against a pathetic Las Vegas Raiders’ secondary (30th in pass defense DVOA). Lawrence struggles against defenses that bring pressure and the Raiders simply do not do that… so this is one of the few matchups I’ll roster Lawrence with (semi) confidence. Lawrence is very stackable and you know the valuable run-backs if you want to bring it back with some Raiders’ exposure (Adams, Jacobs, or Hollins).
Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD) – Same situation as last week. Kyler Murray is the only quarterback on the slate with something close to the upside of Josh Allen. This game in the dome against Seattle grades out as the highest expected pace according to the AETY Model and truly warrants the expensive price-tag for Murray. He’s probably my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterback on what looks like a rather unappealing slate and he’s fine to roster in cash with the high-floor he possesses.

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs:

Austin Ekeler ($8,800 DK / $9,400 FD) – With Keenan Allen (questionable) and Mike Williams (OUT), Austin Ekeler is the number one pass catcher and the number one ball carrier for the Los Angeles Chargers. Summary: he is their whole offense until further notice.
Aaron Jones ($7,400 DK / $7,800 FD) – Criminally low price-tag on FanDuel and I’ll be playing a few more lineups over there than usual solely for the discount. A.J. Dillon took on what looked to be a nasty knee injury and although he somewhat stayed in the game, I am quite skeptical we see much of him on Sunday. This is a dream matchup for the Packers’ top-ten rushing attack against the Lions’ putrid run defense. Aaron Jones is a likely core play for me in all formats.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,600 FD) – Holy usage, Mr. Etienne! Etienne is way too cheap and is the only game in town for the Jaguars’ backfield going up against the Raiders’ struggling defense (19th in overall defense DVOA, and 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs). This is a free-square type of play on DraftKings.
Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Very steep price-tag on FanDuel, but extremely affordable on DraftKings. The Arizona Cardinals’ run defense has been improving throughout the season but they still allow a fantasy friendly, 4.5 yards per carry. This is a fantastic game environment to get exposure to, and Walker will hold significant touchdown equity in this matchup.
D’Onta Foreman ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – No Hubbard again this week.
Deon Jackson ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD) – It sounds like Jonathan Taylor is going to miss this game after re-injuring his ankle in Week 8. Take the free square in Deon Jackson now that Nyheim Hines was traded to Buffalo.

GPP Favorites:

*NOTE: I love everyone in the Cash section for GPPs as well!

Josh Jacobs ($7,300 DK / $8,800 FD) – not as great of a matchup as Aaron Jones, but the AETY Model does expect a lot of scoring in the LV/JAX matchup. Jacobs has been on fire this season and we’ll likely get some lower ownership as he was a letdown for NFL DFS players last week. This isn’t a fantastic matchup on paper and I don’t love the uptick in passing-down usage for Ameer Abdullah, so we’re better off using Jacobs in a GPP game-stack lineup.
Raheem Mostert ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Yes, Mostert was a massive letdown last week at Detroit in a fantastic matchup, but he was still rather effective with his touches as he averaged over 4.6 yards per carry. The Dolphins decided to get cute on the 1-yard line and give the touchdown to Jake Ingold instead of feeding Mostert. All in all, it should have been a respectable fantasy output for Mostert. This week, the AETY Model expects the Dolphins to handle whatever is left of the Bears’ defense and offer Mostert a lot of fantasy upside at low-ownership.

Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to make an immediate impact, but with only a few days of practice under his belt before making is Dolphins’ season debut, I’ll roll the dice in NFL DFS GPP lineups that this is still Mostert’s job to lose.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Eno Benjamin

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

It’s clear that I’m likely to pay up (for the most part) at running back this week, so it’s unlikely I get a lot of exposure to the top tier wide receivers like Cooper Kupp (keep an eye on the ankle injury), Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, or DeAndre Hopkins. I’ll certainly try to get one of them in my NFL DFS cash game lineup (as you certainly can do), but regardless, I’d rank them as follows:

Justin Jefferson
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Tyreek Hill
Davante Adams

Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a top wide receiver at a discount price in what should be a very pass-heavy game environment for the Tampa Bay Bucs. Don’t worry about any rumors of a Jalen Ramsey shadow. The AETY Model also loves Chris Godwin in this spot as well.
DK Metcalf ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,100 DK / $7,600 FD) – Again, I want exposure to this afternoon game with the highest total on the slate and as always, the matchup against Marco Wilson. Metcalf and Lockett are both in an absolute smash spot this week in the dome, assuming Byron Murphy doesn’t solely shadow DK Metcalf. I’d lean to whoever is cheaper on your NFL DFS site of choice.
Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – The Vikings’ defense is a pass funnel and thank the lord for Taylor Heinicke for resurrecting the fantasy value of Terry McLaurin. This is our weekly pick on Cam Dantzler matchup and the price on DraftKings could not be better.
Christian Kirk ($5,500 DK / $6,300 FD) – Way too cheap for a clear WR1. The production hasn’t been nearly as sexy for Kirk as it was in the beginning of the season, but the volume and matchup is there this week. This is going to be a competitive back-and-forth game.
Rondale Moore ($5,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – I hate that I even have to mention his name, lol, but Rondale Moore is starting to become a real weapon in the Arizona Cardinals’ offense and surprisingly moved back inside last week (pushing DeAndre Hopkins outside). I always love DeAndre Hopkins, but for the discount, going down to Rondale Moore against Seattle slot-corner, Coby Bryant is very intriguing for NFL DFS lineups.
Josh Palmer ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Similar to Deon Jackson, Josh Palmer is the only game in town for this Chargers’ receiving core against a HORRIFIC Atlanta secondary. If you’re not paying up for Ekeler, pay-down for Josh Palmer in your NFL DFS cash games.

Honorable Mention (and the punt-plays): Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Drake London, Mack Hollins, Terrace Marshall Jr. (way too cheap and cash viable)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends (Cash and GPP)

Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – Outside of Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett is one of the few proven options on this Chargers’ offense while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out. The total on this game is still high and both of these defenses are severely banged up. Everett’s target share and red-zone share is respectable enough to warrant the mid-tier price.
Tyler Higbee ($3,700 DK ONLY) – Tight-ends against the Bucs has been a gold mine this year and it won’t stop this week as Matthew Stafford abuses Kupp and Higbee against heavy blitzing, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses (what Tampa will run).
Hayden Hurst ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – I’m not a big Hayden Hurst guy, but the price is fantastic on DraftKings and the matchup is a favorable one for the Bengals’ tight-end. Carolina has been getting carved up by opposing tight-ends (hell, they brought Kyle Pitts back to life last week) by sticking to their heavy blitz, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses. Hurst should be in line for an above the baseline target share in Week 9.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Since Week 5, Evan Engram is tied for the lead in NFL tight-end targets! I don’t understand the DraftKings price whatsoever and will likely be rolling out Engram as a core-play, regardless of ownership. In that timeframe, Engram is 4th overall in tight-end routes ran and the thing I like about him the most is his versatility to line up all over the formation (only around 30% of the snaps in-line). Let’s ride!

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Brock Wright or James Mitchell (pure punt plays)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Bucs
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

Josh Allen
Travis Etienne Jr.
Deon Jackson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh Palmer

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 9 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 9 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a MONSTER Week 8, let’s roll right into another juicy slate!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

LAC/PHI
MIN/BAL
GB/KC
HOU/MIA

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

Herbert season is officially back for me this week despite the let-down in Week 8 when New England completely took the air out of the ball and ran it down the Chargers’ throat. Honestly, every team should adapt that same game-plan against this putrid Chargers’ run defense, but I don’t see Nick Sirianni sticking to a run game in a game that will be high in pace and back and forth in scoring. Justin Herbert grades number one in the AETY Model in expected passing yards this weekend and he also offers us significant leverage on the 35% ownership tag on running back Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler can certainly have a great game here… I’m not saying you should fade him, but if his production comes via the pass like it usually does, Herbert will correlate well with that ownership on Ekeler. If the Chargers can get ahead early, this gamescript is going to bode well for a shootout and I’m all for it with Justin Herbert projected for 3-5% ownership. You can make a sexy game-stack with some of the pairings/run-backs below.

Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams
Key Run-back(s): Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, Kenneth Gainwell (yes, the guy 30% of the field played last week, lol. Now is the time to play him at 1% ownership in a gamescript that doesn’t include Philadelphia being up by 40 points).

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)

I’m not in love with Mahomes this week but I’ll always go heavily overweight on Patrick Mahomes when he’s under 10% in ownership projection. The reason I do not love this spot as much as I want to is due to the Packers’ incredibly low pace of play… with Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers now out, I cannot imagine they speed up the offense whatsoever as they lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Having said that, I just can’t envision a world where Mahomes doesn’t light the world on fire in this matchup and declare on the FOX Game of the Week that the Chiefs’ offense is just fine.

Key Pairing(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams
Key Run-back(s): Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams

Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 / $6,900 FD)

Likely a DraftKings ONLY play for me, but Tyrod Taylor is returning under center for the Houston Texans to take on Miami and their 26th ranked passing defense. It’s absolutely gross, but a semi-dual-threat quarterback at $5K against a terrible defense (and a game with a relatively high total) is something I’m interested in this week. I personally will be pairing him with Nico Collins and using a Miami run-back due to the lack of defense on both sides of the field this week. If you can stomach that build, you can afford the world in the rest of your lineup.

Key Pairing(s): Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks
Key Run-back(s): Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)

Dalvin Cook grades out as the third best running back in Week 9 on the AETY Model and will be a massive focal point of this Vikings’ offense as they try to keep Lamar Jackson off of the field. In a game with the highest total on the slate and the highest owned quarterback on the slate (Lamar Jackson), why does no one want to play Dalvin Cook on the other side? Baltimore’s running defense is nothing like it used to be.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

There’s no leverage in this play at all as he’s likely the highest owned running back and yes, usually I never write about the high-chalk players in this article, but for clarity, Ezekiel Elliott is my highest rostered player in Week 9. I’m in love with this matchup against a Denver team that appears to have thrown in the surrender towel. In addition, La’el Collins returns to the Dallas offensive line… let’s roll.

Contrarian Values:

Zack Moss
Devontae Booker
Kenneth Gainwell
A.J. Dillon
Darrel Williams
Eli Mitchell (if Jeff Wilson is inactive)

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) / Adam Thielen ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

Extremely affordable on FanDuel but still in play on DraftKings. Similar to the Dalvin Cook write-up, NO ONE is playing Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. The Baltimore secondary is trash and currently grades 23rd in pass defense DVOA. I usually prefer to focus on Thielen against man coverage (Baltimore’s tendency) and Jefferson against zone coverage, but they’re both in an excellent gamescript at borderline zero ownership.

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Like Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just adding Keenan Allen in the article for the transparency. Allen is a core play for me this weekend as I always pick on the inside of the Philadelphia secondary. He makes a perfect pairing for my favorite GPP quarterback in Justin Herbert and grades out as a top-six value in the AETY Model.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Hello, Mr. Jerry Jeudy. We’re going to pray on the recency bias of DFS players and go at Jerry Jeudy the week after he was 15-20% owned and let down the DFS community. The best part of this play is that he correlates perfectly on the other side of my love for Ezekiel Elliott and also is massive leverage over a 40% owned Broncos tight-end, Albert “O” chalk week.

I’m not saying Albert “O” is a bad play by any means, but if you can find a way to pivot to Jerry Jeudy on the other side of your Elliott builds, you’re not going to regret it. Jourdan Lewis is one of the weaker spots on this Dallas defense and look for Teddy Bridgewater to use the middle of the field a lot on Sunday as they play catch-up. As much as Noah Fant helps Albert “O”, this is still a significant bump up to Jerry Jeudy at 2-5% ownership… Leverage City!

Honorable Mention: Mecole Hardman, Nico Collins, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel

Tight Ends

Honestly, my tight-end pool is directly from the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown. My priorities in GPP would go as follows:

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
Darren Waller ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Jets at Colts

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Carson Wentz (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Pivot: Mike White (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Pivot #2: Jonathan Taylor (FD $16,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #1: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $13,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (FD $11,000, DK $11,700)

The options are wide open this week for the showdown slate, and we’re looking at a huge range of possibilities considering the play of Mike White and the Jets offense last week — especially considering the general unease that Carson Wentz unleashes when he becomes the chalk play at CPT. We’ve got a huge spread over 10 points and plenty of leverage if we can find ways to get a little contrarian.

Colts notes: Indy’s offense has been pretty potent over the past few games, and if the recent track record of both these teams’ are any indication of tonight’s narrative, we’ll see the Colts jump out to a lead and then let the Jets pile up some yardage and fantasy goodness during the final quarter or so. Primary targets beyond Wentz include a very expensive Jonathan Taylor, who might be a decent fade if you want to get a little different. The Colts interior offensive line has had some issues getting a push and it’s likely the Jets (behind the stellar play of DL Quinnen Williams) will focus on stopping the run. I can’t see the Jets having an easy time stopping Michael Pittman, Jr., who has perhaps the highest upside of any skill position player if he gets cooking early and the Colts refuse to let off the gas — a lesson they should have learned last week. Zach Pascal, Mo Alie-Cox and RB Nyheim Hines are all secondary options to the Colts big three, but I’ll mix in a few shares.

Jets notes: White seems like a must-play this week, and he along with Michael Carter and Jamison Crowder are the top targets for this showdown. With Corey Davis doubtful, both Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore are in play and should get plenty of looks, especially if the Colts focus on removing Crowder. Ty Johnson should also be in the mix as the change-of-pace back and frequent check-down target.

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play around sub-$1K range this week. Nothing much doing down there except Ashton Dulin ($300 at FLEX), so just look for the right narrative with your medium-priced builds,

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Carson Wentz
Mike White
Michael Pittman, Jr.
Jonathan Taylor
Michael Carter
Jamison Crowder
Braxton Berrios
Zach Pascal
Colts DST
Nyheim Hines
Ty Johnson
Elijah Moore
Michael Badgley
Mo Alie-Cox
Jack Doyle
Matt Ammendola
Tyler Kroft
Keelan Cole, Sr.
Denzel Mims
Jets DST
Ryan Griffin
Ashton Dulin

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 9 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Patriots at Jets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Cam Newton (DK $19,800, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Jakobi Meyers (DK $13,500, FD $11,000)

Contrarian #1: Patriots DST (DK $11,100)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (DK $16,800, FD $14,000)

We’ve got another weird one on the docket for MNF, with multiple statuses to monitor before game time, including the Jets’ highest-upside offensive player in Jamison Crowder (groin) and the normal bevy of Patriots players who’ve been saddled with the questionable tag – no doubt because Bill Belichick can’t help but add some gamesmanship to his weekly strategy.

Ironically, one of the most dubious of 2020 performers this season, Cam Newton, is actually one of the least uncertain heading into this matchup – at least in my opinion. The Jets have lost another key defensive piece (LB Avery Williamson via trade) and should have trouble containing Newton in this matchup. How the Pats deploy their running backs, including how much we see of James White and Rex Burkhead, hinges on the availability of Sony Michel (who has been practicing and could technically come off IR and play tonight) and Damien Harris, whose questionable tag could simply be a red herring and not a real setback for his ankle issue.

Using Newton at captain makes the most sense for cash game matchups, and his upside is high enough that he’ll be the chalk in GPPs. The Patriots will be missing WR Julian Edelman, but Jakobi Meyers seems to have taken over the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. I’d strongly consider stacking Meyers and White with Newton as a starting point for GPPs and cash. Using Meyers at CPT on DK allows you to build some huge-upside Patriots stacks.

The Jets – smack dab in the middle of a season where they are once again being the Jets – will be rolling out Joe Flacco at QB with Sam Darnold (shoulder) on the shelf. Flacco is a man who clearly does not want to be the quarterback of this 0-8 football team. I’m steering clear in most formats but will have at least 1/10 Jets stack with Flacco at the helm in large-field GPPs. I’d rather see them give James Morgan a shot, but Adam Gase is a sadist weirdo who sleeps about as often as a NXIVM member.

Because of their glaring lack of a running game, I don’t mind the Jets WRs here, as they may rack up reception points without necessarily finding paydirt or making huge gains – and the triumvirate of Crowder (double-digit targets in every game he’s played this season), Braxton Berrios (11 targets last week vs. the Chiefs) and rookie Denzel Mims will be complicated by the return of Breshad Perriman (concussion).

On DraftKings, we really have to consider the Pats DST, even though it’s a steep price, and there are definitely some viable GPP builds that start with them up top.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play the Jets defense tonight. I just don’t see a path to them factoring even if they get a rare defensive TD.

DO: Use Jakobi Meyers in a bunch of lineups, as he’s soaking up the most targets of any Pats WR.

DON’T: Focus too much on the tight ends in this game. Neither side targets TEs very much and while that could change in the small sample of a single game, it’s certainly not a viable cash game strategy.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Cam Newton
Jamison Crowder
Jakobi Meyers
James White
Patriots DST
Joe Flacco
Braxton Berrios
Sony Michel (love the price on DK if active)
Damien Harris (if active and Michel inactive)
Damiere Byrd
La’Mical Perine
Breshad Perriman
Rex Burkhead (but he’s a lineup lock if both Michel and Harris are out)
Denzel Mims
Frank Gore
Nick Folk (questionable – Justin Rohrwasser is the backup)
Gunner Olszewski
Jeff Smith
Ryan Izzo (questionable)
Sergio Castillo

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 9

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 9. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs (25.76)
Seattle Seahawks (24.21)
Minnesota Vikings (24.13)
Arizona Cardinals (22.77)
Pittsburgh Steelers (22.63)
Houston Texans (22.43)
Buffalo Bills (21.83)
Los Angeles Chargers (21.04)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – Welcome back, Mr. Wilson! Russell Wilson is once again the top quarterback in the AETY Model and I’ll be going right back to the well in this matchup at Buffalo with an expected total currently sitting at 55 points (highest on the slate).

I don’t really care what his ownership is, he’s too consistent to fade. You know who to stack him up with.
Josh Allen – On the other side of Wilson this week is obviously, Josh Allen. The Seattle passing defense is atrocious and should be a perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen (who hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 6). Allen is projected to lead this slate in passing yards and like Wilson, it’s very easy to stack him up as the target share in Buffalo is rather condensed.
Lamar Jackson – Lamar Jackson is now priced under $7K on DraftKings… a day I didn’t think we’d ever see any time soon when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Yes, Indianapolis’ defense is extremely stout (ranked 3rd in overall defense DVOA), but I’ll always be interested in rostering Lamar Jackson when he’s likely under 5% owned… not to mention the salary relief he offers this week.

I have Lamar projected to throw for his season high this week (which isn’t saying a whole lot) and it should finally lead to a big day for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (both priced down throughout the DFS industry this week). If Lamar can do his usually damage on the ground and pair that with a 220+ passing yard performance with a couple of TDs, he may very well be QB1 this week and no one is going to play him.
Justin Herbert – Give me all of the Justin Herbert this week as they host the Las Vegas Raiders and their 31st overall ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). You can carve this secondary up and also run it down their throats. If the Raiders can keep the pace in this game and keep it close (the game is currently posted as a pick-em on most sportsbooks), Herbert and company should have another monster game at home in the dome.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

*Obviously, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chase Edmonds are in smash spots. They should be a heavy focus of yours in most lineups, but here are the guys I think are difference-making pivots off of the heavy chalk RBs*

Derrick Henry – All hail King Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher by a healthy margin. Derrick Henry is currently projected to be in the 5-10% ownership bracket here in Week 9 against a Bears’ defense that is much more beatable on the ground than via the pass.

Having said that, the Bears sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of opposing running back yards per carry (4.3), but they are without one of their better run stoppers in Roy Robertson-Harris this week and that will not bode well against Tennessee’s top-ten rushing offense (7th overall in run offense efficiency).

Yet again, Henry leads the AETY Model in projected rushing yards this week and leads the slate with (-240) odds to score. Ride him.
James Robinson – I was quite surprised to see how much James Robinson popped in the model this week as he certainly wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 9. The return of Chris Thompson may take some of the targets away from Robinson but I don’t think he poses much of a threat to the overall ceiling of Robinson this week (against Houston’s 27th ranked run defense who bleeds points to opposing running backs).

With the rookie QB in Jake Luton making his debut, I expect Jacksonville to play a bit conservative and utilize Robinson as much as possible (check-downs, 20+ carriers, etc.) and that should lead to a very high floor and a potential ceiling game for Robinson in NFL DFS GPP lineups… as the Jaguars play catch-up to Houston all game long.
Christian McCaffrey – It’s Christian McCaffrey and he’s priced the lowest we’ll likely ever see him again. I say it time and time again the way to move the football against Kansas City is via the run (ranked 28th in run defense DVOA). He’s been out for quite some time and all reports say that was to ensure he’s 100% healthy when he comes back to football.

That time is now and he’s going to be 5% owned… I’m in.

Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – No AJ Bouye for Denver and likely no Calvin Ridley for Atlanta. Do I need to say much more? I really like this game’s chances of being an up-paced shootout with little-to-no defense at all. Julio is arguably the top wide receiver on this slate in that situation.
Tyler Lockett – Don’t care what his ownership is, I always love top-tier wide receivers in high-total games matchup up against Buffalo slot corner, Taron Johnson.
Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney – On the other side of Derrick Henry, I’m likely to rollout one of these Bears’ wide receivers. I love picking on Tennessee’s secondary and I low-key think this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. I obviously prefer Robinson, but Mooney is 100% a serviceable punt-play as they both will get their fair share to do damage against Adoree Jackson and slow, Malcolm Butler.

With Jadeveon Clowney likely out for this game, the Titans’ awful pass rush is only going to be worse. Nick Foles should have plenty of time to get Robinson and Mooney the football (despite having tons of offensive line injuries themselves).
Justin Jefferson – The AETY Model loves the Vikings’ offense this week, so I’m likely to get a lot of exposure to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Most of my lineup builds do not allow me to afford Thielen, so I’m going to roll out a lot of 5% owned Justin Jefferson (who I honestly prefer over Thielen anyways).

These Lions’ cornerbacks with or without Desmond Trufant have struggled all season long and that is not going to change in Week 9.
Marvin Jones – I have no idea how Marvin Jones isn’t projected for 40% ownership going up against Minnesota’s poor excuse for an NFL secondary. Cam Dantzler in coverage? Yikes. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Marvin Jones is going to be a core play for me everywhere this week.
Mike Williams – Alright, it’s time for the ballsy 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown, call of the week. This week, that guy is going to be Mike Williams. This dude always has slate-breaking potential with an insanely high average depth of target and a climbing target share with Justin Herbert.

Obviously, Keenan Allen is Herbert’s boy, there is no denying that. But, as 25% of the field rushes to roster Keenan Allen, pivoting down to a much cheaper Mike Williams makes a lot of sense to me. You can also double-stack them with Herbert as well. If the Raiders can keep this game moving and keep it close, both of these wide receivers should have a field day against Trayvon Mullen, Lamarcus Joyner, and Nevin Lawson. These corners cannot contain the Chargers’ wideouts.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – It’s Travis Kelce.
Darren Waller – He’s going to be very popular, but the majority of my lineups are predicting a shootout between the Raiders and the Chargers. I’ll need a lot of production from Darren Waller in hopes that gamescript runs true.
TJ Hockenson – Similar to Marvin Jones, Hockenson should have a great bump up with Golladay out (in what’s already been a shocking amount of production in the 2020 season). I think this game will be a bit more up-paced than most think and most gamescripts come down to the Lions’ chasing points. That should bode well for both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson.
Hayden Hurst – The target share has been continuously climbing over the past few weeks and the salary has not. Without Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst should continue to see 6+ targets and boost in red-zone usage. This game is likely to be a shootout and I’ll have a lot of Hurst/Julio exposure.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Packers at 49ers

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Let’s start with a snapshot of the top options at captain on DK:

Wow. That’s a lot of red — but at least we don’t see any injury notes next to the top two options: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers is actually cheaper than Adams but my guess is that he’ll end up being the chalk in the top spot. We’ll know a little bit closer to lock if that’s the case.

Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Davante Adams (DK $18,600, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Mullens (DK $13,800, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jerick McKinnon (DK $12,000, FD $7,000)

Aaron Jones is still nursing a calf injury and is listed as questionable – he’ll be a game-time decision and his absence would force the Packers to start someone a relative unknown, be that DK minimum-price Tyler Ervin (who has logged the most field time of the available Green Bay RBs this season with four carries for 43 rushing yards and 6-33-0 on nine receiving targets) or 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams, who’s minimum price (DK $300, FD $5,000) on both sites.

Jones has played injured before, and he’s even been effective – so as of writing this I’m expecting him to suit up. After Adams, we could see lots of targets for TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard (if he comes off IR before the game and is activated), and even the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

On the 49ers side, things are looking even more bleak, with all the team’s high-profile fantasy starters missing tonight’s contest – including QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), TE George Kittle (broken foot, IR), RBs Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, out) and Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), as well a triumvirate of WRs in the speedy Deebo Samuel (COVID-19), rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19), and red-zone target Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19). Dante Pettis (shoulder) got cut this week and promptly signed with the Giants.

We’re left with backup QB Nick Mullens, quick-twitch RB Jerick McKinnon, rookie RB JaMycal Hasty, TEs Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley, and these WRs: Trent Taylor, Richie James (questionable with an ankle injury) and practice squad bodies River Cracraft (not joking) and Kevin White, who was once a highly regarded WR prospect for the Bears.

I expect to see a lot of two-TE sets and formations with both McKinnon (lined up as a WR) and Hasty. This is madness, but we can embrace it and use it to our advantage in this showdown.

There will be no trouble fitting the top few performers from both teams if we punt CPT on DK, but even with Rodgers or Adams at 1.5x we can likely get Ervin or Dexter Williams and another Packers pass catcher in there alongside the SF pieces we like.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play minimum salary guys tonight. There are several who could have a huge impact on this game.

DO: Stay tuned to the inactives and make the necessary pivots. There may be a few builds that we don’t need to tinker with once we know the status of Aaron Jones, but I’m sure there will be relevant breaking news as we approach 8 p.m.

DON’T: Forget about defenses and kickers. Mistakes could abound in this game, and while we’ve seen some poor play from the Packers DST, they and the 49ers DST could be worth a look.

Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams
Aaron Jones (questionable)
Jerick McKinnon
Nick Nullens
JaMycal Hasty
Robert Tonyan
Jordan Reed
Trent Taylor
Tyler Ervin (bump above Hasty if Jones is out)
Dexter Williams (if Jones is out)
Allen Lazard (if active)
Mason Crosby
Ross Dwelley
Packers DST
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robbie Gould
49ers DST
Jace Sternberger
Richie James (questionable)
Equanimeous St. Brown
Kyle Juszczyk

Note: Injuries could also force us to consider Packers WR Malik Taylor (if Lazard is still out), Kevin White (if James is inactive) and 84-year-old Paul Hornung (joking).

Good luck!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 14 Value and Punt Plays From The King

Bradley Cunningham 5 years ago

written by Bradley Cunningham

Here are Scott Engel’s favorite value and punt plays at each position for the NFL DFS Week 14 main slate. As a weekly nod to punting, we also salute some of the greatest punters of all time by featuring their photos. This week’s featured punter is Pat McAfee.

NFL DFS Week 14 QBValues and Punts

Jacoby Brissett vs. TB ($6,100): The matchup against Tampa Bay is obviously a friendly one. He is not Nick Foles, so there is less concern of a bad outing. You have to at least consider Brissett as a cash game play and use Zach Pascal with him.

Tom Brady vs. KC ($6,100): He can turn it back on at any time, and will have to do so to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

Ryan Tannehill vs. OAK ($5,800): The Titans are winning with Tannehill, and you can win with him too. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most Fantasy Points Per Game to quarterbacks this season and using A.J. Brown with Tannehill is a good move.

Drew Lock vs. HOU ($5,100): The Texans do have a vulnerable pass defense, and Lock throws a pretty good deep ball. He certainly will not be widely owned.

NFL DFS Week 14 RBValues and Punts

Melvin Gordon vs. JAC ($6,400): A prime value considering he has recaptured much of his better form and the Jaguars have allowed the second-most FFPG to RBs over the past month.

Benny Snell vs. ARI ($6,100): Great matchup, he could score more than once this week. Steelers will dominate.

James White vs. KC ($5,500): He is really the No. 2 WR on the Patriots. He is gonna be busy this week.

Darwin Thompson vs. NE ($4,000): He is an upside type who can deliver despite the perceived challenging matchup. You have to take the shot in GPPs. Even if many others are on him, he’ll give you a lot of lineup flexibility with the statistical promise.

Bilal Powell vs. MIA ($3,500): He can be unpredictable when asked to handle a larger load, but if Le’Veon Bell is out he should be the Jets’ lead RB and cannot be passed on at the price tag.

DeAndre Washington vs. TEN ($3,000): Could be the featured ball carrier for the Raiders if Josh Jacobs is out, comes at the minimum salary.

NFL DFS Week 14 WRValues and Punts

Jarvis Landry vs. CIN ($6,500): Has 16 catches in his last two games and has all of his five TDs in the last five games.

Courtland Sutton vs. HOU ($6,400): Nice price for a rising star who has admirably overcome QB changes and now may be more of a deep threat with Lock at QB.

James Washington vs. ARI ($6,000): Cardinals always are a team to attack with WR plays, and Washington has emerged as a big-play man in recent weeks.

Zach Pascal vs, TB ($5,500): Great value duo with him and Brissett. The Colts stack is an intriguing one this week.

Jamison Crowder vs. MIA ($5,300): Has quieted down recently, but Jets need to get him involved again to get the offense moving.

Allen Lazard vs. WAS ($4,200): Aaron Rodgers may have found a new downfield weapon that he likes.

Auden Tate vs. CLE ($4,000): Relevant again with Andy Dalton back at QB and Tyler Boyd will draw a lot of defensive attention.

NFL DFS Week 14 TE Values and Punts

Kyle Rudolph vs. DET ($4,400): He has become a consistent TD threat and Kirk Cousins may have a big week.

Ryan Griffin vs. MIA ($4,100): If the Jets offense wakes up this week, which should happen, he will be a top TD target for Sam Darnold.

Mike Gesicki vs. NYJ ($4,000): With Jamal Adams out for the Jets, the matchup looks even better. We still have not seen the breakout game yet, but you can take he chance that it comes this week.

Ian Thomas vs. ATL ($2,500): He is an athletic and heady young guy who just needs more playing time to show what he can do, and he’ll get that chance this week with Greg Olsen out.

NFL DFS Week 14 Valuesand Punt Defenses

Colts vs. TB ($2,400): An underrated unit facing the league’s most turnover-prone QB.

Bengals vs. CLE ($2,100): They have allowed 17 or less points in each of the past three games and Baker Mayfield can certainly turn the ball over.

Featured Image via Angie Six.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 12 Value and Punt Plays From The King

Bradley Cunningham 5 years ago

written by Bradley Cunningham

Here are Scott Engel’s favorite value and punt plays at each position for NFL DFS Week 12. As a weekly nod to punting, we also salute some of the greatest punters of all time by featuring their photos. This week’s featured punter is Jeff Feagles.

NFL DFS Week 12 QBValues and Punts

Jameis Winston vs.ATL ($6,200): Yes, he threwfour interceptions last week, but he has also delivered a franchise record fiveconsecutive 300-yard outings. The matchup is obviously a fine one and he is a goodplay in both cash games and GPPs.

Baker Mayfield vs.MIA ($5,900): He may be themost popular play of the week and should be good for three TD passes, as theDolphins have allowed the most in the AFC.

Carson Wentz vs.SEA ($5,600): I do not expecthim to be widely used, but look for him to come through big as the Eagles tryto stay in the NFC playoff race.

Mitch Trubisky vs.NYG ($5,100): Take the shot ifyou roll out multiple lineups. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most FFPG inthe NFC to QBs over the past month.

NFL DFS Week 12 RBValues and Punts

Derrick Henry vs.JAC ($6,900): Last time theJaguars visited Tennessee, Henry had the best outing of his career. Jacksonvillehas allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to RB over the past month.

Joe Mixon vs. PIT ($5,900): He has scored in three of his past four gamesand Mixon has went over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his past two outings.

Miles Sanders vs.SEA ($5,000): He has thenecessary upside for GPPs, and is the ideal candidate to add a spark to thePhiladelphia offense this week.

Bo Scarbrough vs. WAS ($4,200): A very alluring salary saver. Scarbrough ran hard and determined last week and should find the end zone at least once.

Watch: Prime Week 12 NFL DFS Picks from The King, our CEO and Matt Striker

NFL DFS Week 12 WR Values and Punts

Jarvis Landry vs.MIA ($6,300): Lock him in, asthis “Revenge Game” script has all the elements for success. Miami has allowedthe most TD catches in the AFC to WRs, and Landry has scored in three consecutivegames.

Jamison Crowdervs. OAK ($6,200): He is amust-start in cash games right now, and will also serve you well in GPPs. TheRaiders are always a friendly matchup for WRs.

Tyrell Williamsvs. NYJ ($5,900): The Jets allowthe most Fantasy Points Per Game to WRs in the AFC and their CB situation isvery shaky.

DeVante Parker vs.CLE ($5,200): He has a qualityfloor now for cash games, and he certainly will not hurt you in a GPP.

Taylor Gabriel vs.NYG ($4,200): He his onlyoccasionally useful, but this is one of those occasions against the Giantssecondary.

Johnny Holton vs. CIN ($3,300): James Washington cannot be trusted in an expanded role, and Holton has some big play promise, too.

NFL DFS Week 12 TEValues and Punts

Ryan Griffin vs.OAK ($4,200): Do the PeterGriffin laugh when he scores against the team that has allowed the most FFPG toTEs in the AFC over the past month and full season.

Dallas Goedert vs.SEA ($3,700): A consistent TDthreat against a defense that has always let up points to TEs.

Vance McDonald vs.CIN ($3,500): The Steelerspassing game is depleted and he should be a prime TD option for Mason Rudolph.

NFL DFS Week 12 DefenseValues and Punts

Jacksonville vs.TEN ($2,800): The Jags had ninesacks last time they faced the Titans.

Carolina vs. NO ($2,200): It is a gutsy move to use the Panthers, but this is a divisional game and could be lower-scoring than expected. Carolina is tied for the NFL lead in sacks and is also tied for third in interceptions.

Featured Image via Random Philly Eagles

5 years ago 0 comments

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Week 9 NFL DFS

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tight-Ends

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tight-Ends

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks:

GPP Favorites:

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs:

GPP Favorites:

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends (Cash and GPP)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)

Tyrod Taylor ($5,000 / $6,900 FD)

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

Contrarian Values:

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) / Adam Thielen ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Jerry Jeudy ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Tight Ends

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Carson Wentz (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Pivot: Mike White (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Pivot #2: Jonathan Taylor (FD $16,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #1: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $13,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (FD $11,000, DK $11,700)

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Cam Newton (DK $19,800, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Jakobi Meyers (DK $13,500, FD $11,000)

Contrarian #1: Patriots DST (DK $11,100)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (DK $16,800, FD $14,000)

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Davante Adams (DK $18,600, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Mullens (DK $13,800, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jerick McKinnon (DK $12,000, FD $7,000)

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

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