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Washington Nationals

10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate & Showdown Picks

5 years ago

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The 10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate is about the Nationals seeking to move one step closer to really loving Life After Bryce (WAS @ STL, 4:08 ET, FS1) while Act 1 of Clash of the Titans goes down in H-Town (NYY @ HOU, 8:08 ET, FOX).

Showdown and Hitting picks follow, and I’m pretty sure we won’t forget the four starting hurlers in question.

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10/12 DFS Showdown: WAS @ STL

MVP/Captain (2X)

Trea Turner, SS, WAS (DK $14700, FD $9500)

Runs will be at a premium today, so I’ll go with the one player capable of creating runs on his own. Four of Turner’s eight postseason hits are for extra bases, and I feel today’s the day he becomes aggressive on the basepaths.

All-Star (1.5X)

Adam Eaton, OF, WAS (DK $7600, FD $7000)

Eaton has a great track record against Cards starter Adam Wainright, having recorded a .545 batting average (6-for-11) with a homer and a 1.455 OPS. Yes, he’s scuffling thus far in the postseason (.167 batting average, .560 OPS), but the thought of hitting Wainright is the wake-up call his bat needs.

Utility

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS (DK $7000, FD $6500)

Like Eaton, Zimmerman has a strong record against Wainright. In 34 career at-bats, Zimmerman has hit .353 with a pair of homers and a 1.048 OPS. He’s facing Wainright at a time where Zimmerman has five hits in his last three games while showing there’s still some pop left in his bat with a homer and a double among his hits.

Utility

Tommy Edman, 3B, STL (DK $9000, FD $7000)

You’re going to be hard-pressed to find anyone in the Cards lineup with success against Max Scherzer, but Edman — albeit a brief sample — is an exception, having gone 2-for-3 with a homer off the Nats ace. He was hitless in Game 1 yet had four hits in the previous two games. Edman is more dominant at home, where he’s posted a .959 OPS with four homers and 26 runs scored at Busch Stadium.

Utility

Yadier Molina, C, STL (DK $4400, FD $5000)

I’ve had a decent rate of success with catchers in the postseason, so consider Molina a roll of the dice. Molina is hitting just .130 thus far in the playoffs but there’s a feeling he can pay off here this afternoon. Sometimes, you have to play a hunch, and at this low a salary, I’ll take my chances.

10/12 DFS Showdown: NYY @ HOU

MVP/Captain (2X)

George Springer, OF, HOU (DK $15,000, FD $8000)

One of a handful of Astros who have hit well against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka, Springer has two homers and a 1.126 OPS in 14 at-bats against him. He also had three hits in Games 4 and 5 in the ALDS, a good sign that his postseason woes have moved past. Springer has a .931 OPS at home and a .998 OPS versus righties. Run with him tonight.

All-Star

D.J. LeMahieu, 3B, NYY (DK $9600, FD $7500)

LeMahieu knows a thing or two about Astros starter Zack Greinke, having faced him 58 times as a member of the Rockies while Greinke was bouncing around the National League. He’s hit Greinke with a .293 average with a homer among his six extra base hits against him. LeMahieu has tagged Astros pitching with a .429/.480/.905 with a pair of dingers and six runs scored.

Utility

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY (DK $8200, FD $6500)

Youth be damned, Torres hit a sizzling .417 in the ALDS with four of his five hits going for extra bases. He hasn’t fared well against the Astros this season (.708 OPS) but does have a pair of homers against them. He’d be my early choice for ALCS MVP. Clip and save that last sentence.

Utility

Yuli Gurriel 1B, HOU (DK $7800, FD $5500)

One of the most impressive LDS facts was Gurriel not striking out in 19 at-bats. He’s lethal at Minute Maid Park, where he’s gone .311/.351/.615 with 19 homers. While he owns just one hit in eight at-bats against Tanaka, Gurriel has the look of a silent assassin waiting to strike big time for us DFSers.

Utility

Carlos Correa, SS, HOU (DK $8000, FD $7000)

C-Squared has struggled in the postseason, but the sight of facing Tanaka should make his bat happy. Correa has two homers and an 1.108 OPS in 15 at-bats against Tanaka. He thrives at home (1.034 OPS) and is the one overdue bat in the Astros’ lineup that could change the complexion of this series if he gets hot.

10/6 DFS Pitching Picks

1) Max Scherzer, WAS @ STL (DK $10,200, FD $11,400)

The easy lay-up among today’s pitchers, I really don’t have to explain why, but here goes: 12.69 K/9, 1.72 BB/9 and an 0.94 HR/9. We’re done here.

2) Zack Greinke, HOU vs. NYY (DK $7,500, FD $8,700)

There’s reason to be hesitant about Greinke after he was lit up for three homers by the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. His season total of 0.91 HR/9 suggests it was a blip on the radar, along with his 36.2% hard contact rate.

3) Adam Wainwright, STL vs. WAS (DK $6,100, FD $8,000)

A solid September has carried into October for Wainwright, who has an ERA of 3.06 at home since the start of the 2015 season. There’s risk with a hurler who has allowed opponents to record a .286 batting average against him since the All-Star break, but Wainwright’s postseason experience will help attract users.

4) Masahiro Tanaka (DK $7,300, FD $8,000)

Tanaka has a 2.25 ERA against the Astros this season, yet it was the only time he saw them. I’m not sure I’d want to risk him, even with the friendly salary.

10/12 DFS Hitters

10/12 DFS C: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. NYY (DK $3600, FD $2500)

Plug him into the eighth spot, A.J. Hinch. After all, Chirinos does have an .887 OPS with nine homers when placed there.

10/12 DFS 1B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS at STL (DK $3700, FD $3000)

Going strictly on the track record he has against Adam Wainwright. He’ll be a value play that allows you spend big elsewhere.

10/12 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU vs. NYY (DK $4700, FD $4300)

Crushed it with a 1.281 OPS in the ALDS. Increased hard contact rate makes Altuve a dangerous presence. If you’re looking at an Astros stack, make sure Altuve is in it.

10/12 DFS 3B: Alex Bregman, HOU vs. NYY (DK $5100, FD $4100)

Damned if his 17.2% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate isn’t the most impressive things of the 2019 season. That 44.7% hard contact rate is lethal.

10/12 DFS SS: Carlos Correa, HOU vs. NYY (DK $4100, FD $3700)

Career-best .289 Isolated Power falls under the radar due to his injuries. Correa also had a career-high 36.9% fly ball rate and a scary good 25.6 HR/FB rate.

10/12 DFS OF: Aaron Judge, NYY at HOU (DK $9000, FD $8500)

Somewhat quiet in the ALDS, Judge had four hits in 10 at-bats in Minute Maid Park. He’s another overdue bat that will pay off.

10/12 DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS at STL

He’s homered twice in the postseason despite a tepid .259 batting average.

10/12 DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. WAS

Friday night aside, Ozuna has mashed it in the postseason, going .360/.407/.727.

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5 years ago 0 comment

10/9 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.

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10/9 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK& FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)

10/9 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.

SP1: Walker Buehler (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)

Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.

SP2: Jack Flaherty (DK $7,400, FD $9,600)

Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.

10/9 DFS Hitters

10/9DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,800)

Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR) Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)

10/9DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,800)

He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/9DFS 2B: Max Muncy, LAD (DK $4,500, 3B on FD $3,800)

Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux

10/9DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $4,200, FD $3300)

I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman

10/9DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong

10/9DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger

10/9DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna

10/9DFS OF: Matt Joyce, ATL (DK $3,200, FD $2,300)

We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)

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10/9DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 ESTon FD)

Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.

SampleFD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off

All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.

UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)

UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)

UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)

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10/9DFS Featured Showdown (8:37 p.m.on DK)

It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)

UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)

UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)

UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/6 DFS MLB Picks: Two-Game N.L. Slate

5 years ago

written by

The 10/6 DFS MLB Picks is all about the National League Divisional Series. Get your Fantasy football lineups in and let’s focus on making the long green, diamond style.

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10/6 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

Atlanta at St. Louis Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL, $9500: Slow start in the first two games, but he’s a .381/.458/.714 hitter versus the Cards this season with a pair of homers and six runs scored.

All-Star (1.5x): Marcell Ozuna, OF, STL, $8000: Went 4-for-8 in first two games of NLDS. Does have a pair of regular season homers off Atlanta pitching.

Utility: Brian McCann, C, ATL: Has produced 12.2 FanDuel points in the first two games. No homers but did have a .357/.412/.357 slash line against the Cards in the regular season.

Utility: Tommy Edman, 3B, STL, $7000: Scoreless in Game 2 yet had produced 43.9 FD points in his previous three games. Has a .929 OPS when batting second in the order.

Utility: Yadier Molina, C, STL, $5500: The pop may be waning, but Molina was an effective .284 when batting sixth with seven of his 10 homers coming from that spot in the order.

LA Dodgers at Washington Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Trea Turner, SS, WAS, $9000: Three of his first four postseason hits have been for extra bases. Has a .511 slugging percentage at home and is 15-for-16 (93.7%) in stolen bases at Nationals Park.

All-Star (1.5x): Max Muncy, 2B, LAD, $8000: Owns a career homer off Nats starter Anibal Sanchez. Is more effective on the road, sporting a .939 OPS with 22 homers and 56 RBI outside of Dodger Stadium.

Utility: Howie Kendrick, 1B, WAS, $5500: Like Turner, Kendrick will be more valuable when at home. Went .374/.430/.638 (1.068 OPS) with 10 homers at Nationals Park.

Utility: Corey Seager, SS, LAD, $6000: Homered at Nationals Park this season. The pop was there in September (.938 OPS, seven homers). Is overdue for a breakout, so roll the dice and run with him.

Utility: Will Smith, C, LAD, $6500: Mashed righties to a 1.019 OPS with 12 of his 15 homers coming off them. Had four hits in six at-bats with a homer and two doubles at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS Pitching Picks

1) Mike Soroka, ATL at STL (DK $7,500, FD $8,700)

The best of a pretty uninspiring quartet of pitchers, Sorka should be good for about 27-30 points at FanDuel and 14-17 points at DraftKings. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (0.72 HR/9) is bolstered by his low 2.11 BB/9 rate. Sorka is stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls (25.3%).

2) Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD at WAS (DK $8,900, FD $10,300)

Road ERA of 2.72 is solid, but it’s not the 1.93 ERA Ryu posted this season at Dodger Stadium. Goes from averaging better than a strikeout per inning at home to just 69 Ks over 89.1 innings on the road. However, Ryu allowed just one run in 14.2 frames of work versus the Nationals this season.

3) Adam Wainright, STL vs. ATL (DK $8,500, FD $5,700)

It’s easy to forget Wainright still averaged 8.06 K/9 and held batters to a 28.7% fly ball rate. The 41.9% hard contact rate is a bit concerning, but I’ll put faith in Wainright’s 3.38 ERA and 1.103 WHIP over 12 previous NLDS outings.

4) Anibal Sanchez, WAS vs. LAD (DK $5,500, FD $7,400)

Sneaky enough to run with. Sanchez has three starts of at least 40 points at FanDuel dating back to August 23, with two of his last three starts producing 40 and 46 FD points, respectively. The Dodgers will be hard-pressed to get solid contact off Sanchez, who limited batters to a 31.6 hard contact rate off him this season.

10/6 DFS Hitters

10/6 DFS C: Will Smith, LAD (DK $4,100, FD $3,400)

Off to a slow start in the NLDS, Smith is the best bet to score the most points at the position. I’d pay a little extra to assure his spot in the lineup. Again, keep in mind he did hit well the previous time he played at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS 1B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (DK $3,600, FD $2,600)

Owns a .966 OPS versus left-handers. He’s going to offer enough value to allow DFSers to spend liberally elsewhere.

10/6 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,400, FD $3,400)

I’ll pay just enough to get Albies and his 42.3% hard contact rate against Wainright. Albies also has a 25.5% line drive rate.

10/6 DFS 3B: Matt Carpenter, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

The oldest son of my high school baseball coach had two homers, five RBI and a 1.096 OPS in 23 at-bats versus Braves pitching this season.

10/6 DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $4,000, FD $3,200)

Falls into my “I have a hunch about this guy” section of the 10/6 DFS MLB Picks.

10/6 DFS OF: Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL (DK $5,500, FD $4,200)

Slightly better OPS (.885) on the road than at home (.880). Acuna did hit 23 of his 41 homers outside of Atlanta.

10/6 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,600, FD $2,800)

Has five hits in nine career at-bats versus Wainright (1.525 OPS).

10/6 DFS OF: Joc Pederson, LAD (DK $4,400, FD $3,300)

Potential to explode: Pederson has four games of at least 22.90 FD points since September 25.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/4 DFS MLB Picks: Four on the Floor

5 years ago

written by

Today’s four-game playoff slate means the 10/4 DFS MLB Hitting Picks can go back to basics with a full lineup.

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10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

Chirinos is devastating at Minute Maid Park, evidenced by a .915 OPS with 10 of his 14 homers coming in front of the H-Town faithful. He does have a homer among his four hits in 15 at-bats this season against the Rays. You do have to like his 39.5% hard contact rate and a similar 39.5% fly ball rate. He’s the best overall play among 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks behind the plate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

C.J. Cron, MIN at NYY

DK ($3,600), FD ($3,100)

A value pick with good reason: Cron has six hits in 18 career at-bats against New York starter James Paxton. Two of those hits were homers, giving Cron a 1.017 OPS against the Pinstripes southpaw. Cron was able to cut his strikeout rate to 21.4% this season and maintained a solid fly ball rate (36.3%) while taking his hard contact rate from 39.6% last season to 41.1% this year.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Kolten Wong, STL at ATL

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,600)

Like Cron, I’m looking for past success against today’s starters. Enter Wong, who has a homer and a stolen base in 11 career at-bats versus Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz, producing a 1.625 OPS in the process. Wong went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a walk in Thursday’s Game 1 victory. That’s a tremendous way to shake off a sluggish September that saw Wong offer up a .735 OPS despite hitting .290. The free pass is encouraging since Wong had a mere .315 OBP in September that put a scratch on a Post All-Star break OBP of .409.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at NYY

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Sano gives the Twins another hammer that has nailed James Paxton in the past. In 11 career at-bats versus Paxton, Sano has four hits that include a homer that helped boost his OPS to 1.326 against Paxton. A strong second half OBP of .362 was helped in part of Sano improving his walk rate to 12.5%. His HR/FB rate of 36.6% is downright frightening in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. More frightening is Sano’s 52.7% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS at LAD

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,200)

Turner admitted to “trying too hard” on Thursday night, so let’s take him at his word. He’ll need a different approach against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, even though he has three hits in 10 at-bats against him. One way Turner could achieve that would be resuming his more aggressive ways on the road when it comes to baserunning. Of his 35 steals, 20 have come in enemy territory. He has a .444 slugging percentage against southpaws, compared to .512 versus righties, so look for him to more contact-oriented.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,000)

The Rays were not exempt from Alvarez’s tour of destruction, as Tampa Bay hurlers allowed a pair of homers and a double to him in 11 at-bats. Alvarez’s best work came at Minute Maid Park, where he sported an 1.140 OPS built on a slash line of .349/.441/.699. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow allowed just one homer in 97 at-bats versus left-handed hitters. Facing a slugger with a 51.1% hard contact rate, Glasnow could see that number increase by at least one.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ATL

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,600)

Ozuna has a pair of homers off Braves hurler Mike Foltynewicz, who was shelled by the Cardinals this season for nine runs (eight earned) and 12 hits over 10.2 innings for a robust 6.79 ERA. Ozuna doubled twice, drove in a pair of runs and scored once on Thursday, making us all forget his .143 average against Atlanta pitching this season. Ozuna’s .243 batting average and .259 BABIP also make you forget his career-best 48.1% hard contact rate and the fact his 2018 BABIP was exactly 50 points higher.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. MIN

DK ($4,700), FD ($4,400)

Although he failed to record a homer against them this season, Judge did hit .462 (6-for-13) against Twins pitching, making him a good 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks play. He also comes into the postseason with the momentum of an 1.109 OPS with four homers over the past two weeks and an equally imposing .948 OPS under the lights. Judge also has three hits in five career at-bats versus Twins starter Jose Berrios, while his late season surge boosted his Isolated Power to .267. Ignore the 31.5% strikeout rate, and Judge offers you a hitter with a .360 BABIP and an intimidating 53.8% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

10/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: St. Louis Cardinals: Wong and Ozuna should be paired with Paul DeJong ($3100 FD), who has a homer and a 1.064 OPS versus Foltynewicz, along with Matt Carpenter ($4100 DK), who also sports a career dinger off the Braves’ Game 2 starter.

10/4 DFS Showdown

My MVP plays for Showdown:

Tampa Bay at Houston: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, OF, $8,000 Salary

St. Louis at Atlanta: Paul Goldschmidt, STL, 1B, $8,500 Salary

Minnesota at NY Yankees: Gleyber Torres, NYY, 2B, $6,500 Salary

Washington at LA Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, LAD, OF, $9,500 Salary

10/4 DFS Pitching Picks

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. TB

DK ($10,700), FD ($11,200)

No shock here, as he is projected to deliver 45.03 points at FanDuel and 26.03 points at DraftKings. Verlander has produced 15 straight starts of at least 30 points at FD, hitting above 50 points nine times in the same span. The 12.11 K/9 rate assures DFSers of plenty of whiffs, and while the 1.45 HR/9 rate raises the eyebrows a wee, Verlander has been able to keep most them solo blasts.

Jack Flaherty, STL at ATL

DK ($8,200), FD ($10,500)

You could save some salary and run with Flaherty over Verlander. In his one start versus the Braves this season, Flaherty allowed one hit and struck out 11 over seven innings. His 0.91 ERA and .142 OBA after the All-Star break was overshadowed by a host of hitting performances and the “can you top this?” clash between Verlander and Astros teammate Gerrit Cole, but Flaherty’s 124 strikeouts over 99.1 post-ASB frames were anything but a fluke.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. WAS

DK ($9,300), FD ($10,300)

Only Kershaw can post a 2.95 ERA and fan nearly 10 batters per nine innings post-ASB and still have people wondering about his effectiveness. The home run rate (1.41) was a career-high, and the 2.07 BB/9 was his highest since 2012. Name recognition will make his usage rate climb, yet Kershaw presents something of a bargain compared to the two hurlers above him.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS at LAD

DK ($9,600), FD ($10,100)

He’s good to go after throwing 34 pitches in relief on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and fanning four. Strasburg could be overlooked by some, yet he did strike out 16 and allowed only three earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers this season, sporting a 2.08 ERA.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

5 years ago

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It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

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Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15^th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Max Scherzer	Nationals	172.1	12.69	1.72	0.94	40.80%	11.60%	2.92	2.88
Charlie Morton	Rays	194.2	11.1	2.64	0.69	48.20%	10.40%	3.05	3.28
Brandon Woodruff	Brewers	121.2	10.58	2.22	0.89	44.60%	12.00%	3.62	3.36
Sean Manaea	Athletics	29.2	9.1	2.12	0.91	41.20%	10.70%	1.21	3.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Nationals	234.2	8.94	3.72	1.61	37.30%	15.30%	4.83	4.88
Brewers	284	11.12	3.96	1.43	43.40%	18.00%	3.99	3.96
Athletics	226.2	10.2	3.14	1.23	41.00%	14.00%	3.77	4.08
Rays	328.1	10.75	2.74	1.29	41.90%	15.00%	3.56	3.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2^nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Keston Hiura	265	6.80%	30.20%	0.23	6	0.418	159
Eric Thames	397	10.60%	30.50%	0.35	3	0.362	122
Yasmani Grandal	438	16.40%	21.90%	0.75	3	0.35	114
Mike Moustakas	403	9.90%	17.60%	0.56	3	0.342	109
Ryan Braun	332	5.40%	23.50%	0.23	8	0.338	106
Trent Grisham	147	11.60%	23.10%	0.5	1	0.319	94
Lorenzo Cain	445	7.60%	17.10%	0.45	9	0.296	79
Ben Gamel	277	10.10%	29.60%	0.34	1	0.284	71
Travis Shaw	219	16.40%	32.90%	0.5	0	0.278	67
Cory Spangenberg	84	7.10%	32.10%	0.22	2	0.27	62
Orlando Arcia	411	7.80%	20.70%	0.38	7	0.261	56
Hernan Perez	127	5.50%	33.90%	0.16	2	0.24	42
Manny Pina	98	9.20%	25.50%	0.36	0	0.233	38
Tyler Austin	69	10.10%	44.90%	0.23	1	0.232	41
Tyler Saladino	52	7.70%	32.70%	0.24	2	0.188	8

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Juan Soto	438	18.30%	20.30%	0.9	9	0.414	155
Anthony Rendon	475	11.40%	12.40%	0.92	2	0.411	153
Howie Kendrick	244	7.80%	12.70%	0.61	1	0.385	136
Trea Turner	441	7.50%	20.40%	0.37	27	0.36	120
Adam Eaton	499	10.60%	15.60%	0.68	11	0.342	108
Asdrubal Cabrera	374	10.20%	22.20%	0.46	3	0.332	99
Kurt Suzuki	237	7.20%	11.40%	0.63	0	0.319	93
Victor Robles	458	5.90%	23.60%	0.25	16	0.314	90
Matt Adams	270	7.00%	35.20%	0.2	0	0.314	89
Brian Dozier	346	12.40%	22.30%	0.56	2	0.312	88
Gerardo Parra	232	6.90%	19.80%	0.35	6	0.291	76
Ryan Zimmerman	137	9.50%	19.70%	0.48	0	0.277	65
Yan Gomes	273	8.40%	25.30%	0.33	2	0.275	64
Michael A. Taylor	57	7.00%	36.80%	0.19	5	0.26	54
Wilmer Difo	115	9.60%	18.30%	0.52	0	0.254	50

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Tommy Pham	197	18.80%	17.80%	1.06	8	0.407	161
Yandy Diaz	117	12.00%	21.40%	0.56	1	0.402	158
Travis d’Arnaud	150	8.70%	21.30%	0.41	0	0.362	130
Eric Sogard	120	9.20%	18.30%	0.5	2	0.353	122
Michael Brosseau	73	4.10%	23.30%	0.18	0	0.347	120
Austin Meadows	177	5.10%	29.90%	0.17	2	0.346	120
Guillermo Heredia	124	6.50%	23.40%	0.28	0	0.337	114
Kevin Kiermaier	130	3.80%	21.50%	0.18	5	0.332	110
Avisail Garcia	177	7.90%	22.60%	0.35	0	0.328	107
Jesus Aguilar	145	12.40%	22.10%	0.56	0	0.303	86
Daniel Robertson	96	10.40%	28.10%	0.37	1	0.299	88
Brandon Lowe	68	2.90%	52.90%	0.06	0	0.282	77
Ji-Man Choi	94	11.70%	23.40%	0.5	0	0.28	75
Michael Perez	11	0.00%	45.50%	0	0	0.269	67
Willy Adames	198	6.60%	27.80%	0.24	1	0.245	51
Matt Duffy	66	13.60%	19.70%	0.69	0	0.245	51
Mike Zunino	101	9.90%	33.70%	0.29	0	0.214	30
Joey Wendle	59	6.80%	25.40%	0.27	1	0.168	-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Mark Canha	340	12.90%	23.50%	0.55	2	0.405	160
Sean Murphy	40	10.00%	27.50%	0.36	0	0.394	152
Matt Olson	374	11.20%	25.90%	0.43	0	0.391	150
Seth Brown	69	10.10%	27.50%	0.37	1	0.379	142
Marcus Semien	545	11.60%	14.30%	0.81	10	0.367	134
Ramon Laureano	346	6.40%	26.60%	0.24	9	0.361	129
Matt Chapman	491	10.20%	22.80%	0.45	1	0.355	126
Robbie Grossman	424	12.50%	17.50%	0.72	8	0.307	93
Jurickson Profar	399	8.80%	14.50%	0.6	7	0.286	79
Chad Pinder	191	4.20%	25.70%	0.16	0	0.28	75
Stephen Piscotty	301	8.00%	22.30%	0.36	2	0.272	69
Josh Phegley	239	5.00%	21.80%	0.23	0	0.266	66
Khris Davis	383	7.30%	30.80%	0.24	0	0.252	56

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Farewell, Wednesday

5 years ago

written by

The 9/25 DFS Hitting Picks is the final Wednesday edition with a main slate filled with strong offensive matchups. Load up here, follow the rest of the WDS crew and count your long green.

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9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Yan Gomes, WAS at PHI

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,600)

Phillies starter Drew Smyly has been owned by Gomes: in 14 at-bats against the Nats’ backstop, Smyly has allowed six hits, including a pair of homers. It also helps that Gomes has homered in each of the past two games and has a .913 OPS during an unsung September that has seen Gomes hit half of his 12 homers this season. Oh: Smyly comes in with a 2.59 HR/9 rate, so there’s that.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Ryan O’Hearn, KC vs. ATL

DK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)

Consider this a punt pick with upside. With the Braves pushing Mike Soroka to Sunday’s regular season finale, O’Hearn will face swingman Josh Tomlin. O’Hearn has homered four times this month and sports a .545 slugging percentage. He also has a 41.7% hard contact rate and has quietly raised his walk rate to 10.8%. Certainly, there are better options available, but if you’re looking for cheap power, then O’Hearn’s a good place to start.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Garrett Hampson, COL at SF

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,800)

Whoa…where did the pop come from? Hampson has homered four times over the past week and has five dingers in a .371/.435/.677 month of swinging. He homered twice in Tuesday’s win at the Giants and is on a run in which Hampson has scored at least once in nine of his last 10 games. His batting average says .253, but Hampson’s September run has boosted his BABIP to .326. Hampson’s fly ball rate of 38.7% has paid off well this month, so why not jump in the fun before it’s too late?

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Jose Ramirez, CLE at CWS

DK ($5,000), FD ($3,600)

In perhaps the biggest surprise since John Cena showed up unexpectedly in the 2008 Royal Rumble, Ramirez made a loud return to the lineup on Tuesday with a pair of homers and seven RBI. Remember when it was thought he’d be lost for the season? Ah, modern medicine. Ramirez had an August OPS of 1.077 before his hand injury and while a repeat of Tuesday is too much in asking, White Sox starter Ross Detwiler does have a 2.73 HR/9 rate. Just pointing it out…

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS vs. PHI

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,400)

Don’t count on Turner to ease up now that the Nationals have clinched a playoff spot. Fourteen of Turner’s 31 hits this month have been for extra bases (nine doubles, five homers), which have been the foundation of his .908 September OPS. Turner’s 7.8% walk rate is modest, but he’s sporting a .347 BABIP while pushing his hard contact rate above average at 37.8%.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yasiel Puig, CLE at CWS

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,200)

Puig has yet to homer this month, but has still put on a master class as to why most pundits have been enamored with his skills. Along with driving in 11 runs, Puig has gone .392/.471/.500 this month while adding 14 runs scored. His fly ball rate of 40.4% is a career best, yet Puig is also spraying line drives at a 21.2% clip. He’s also hitting to all fields with consistency and also gets to feast on Ross Detwiler.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,300), FD ($3,000)

Over the past two weeks, Hays has teamed with Trey Mancini to give the O’s a potent duo. He’s batted .320/.382/.640 with four homers and 12 RBI in that span. Hays has also struck out just 14.8% of the time and has caused damage despite a 28% hard contact rate. Even with the small sample size of 55 at-bats, Hays’ .291 Isolated Power will carry well this evening at hitter-friendly Rodgers Centre.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY at TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,500)

Judge’s bat appears ready for an October run. He’s gone .289/.438/.737 with five homers, seven RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s struggled against the Rays this season (.194 batting average), but let’s throw that out the window. Judge has pushed his Isolated Power to .260, which is helped by the fact his hard contact rate is a very, very loud 53.4%. That rate does more than knock down stop signs.

9/25 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/25 Hitting Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians: Puig and Ramirez is a great pairing. I’d also consider Roberto Perez ($2800 FD) and Franmil Reyes ($3100 FD) as good bargains to add, yet would consider an all-in by going with Francisco Lindor ($5300 DK).

9/25 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi has been hammered for 12 runs (10 earned) and 20 hits over 14 innings of work against Houston. I’d build with Alex Bregman ($5200 DK) or Yordan Alvarez ($5500 DK). Aledmys Diaz ($4100 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3600 DK) are value plays if they’re in the lineup.

9/25 Hitting Stack to Consider: Washington Nationals: You can go beyond Gomes and Turner. Howie Kendrick ($2700 FD) and Anthony Rendon ($4200) make for good additions if going all-in.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/4 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/4 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Jack Flaherty

As Jason chose him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Jack Flaherty dominated the San FranciscoGiants. Flaherty went eight shutout innings, allowing just a single base hit with a walk and eight strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Jack Flaherty has been one of the best pitchers in MLB in his last seven games. In that span, he has a 0.59 ERA in 46 innings, while allowing less than a hit every two innings. He has pitched like an ace in 2019 and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Expect Jack Flaherty to continue this excellence throughout September.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Whit Merrifield

Another value pick by Jason, this time at the second base slot, Whit Merrifield had a good day at the plate against the Detroit Tigers. Merrifield went 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Merrifield is having a great season on a largely mediocre Royals team. He upped his average to .302 for the year and is able to play anywhere on the field. He will be a huge asset for an up-and-coming Kansas City team with a great contract. Expect Whit Merrifield to continue to get on base as he ranks in the Top 50 in OBP.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Adam Frazier

Here is a screenshot of all the second basemen listed on our Hitter Projection Model, available for all premium users. Adam Frazier was one of the more expensive second basemen on the slate, but he delivered against the Miami Marlins, going 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI from the leadoff spot.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Incredibly this is a down year batting-wise for Frazier compared to last year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a down year as a whole but Fraizer, in the leadoff spot with nine HRs and 41 RBI and a .335 OBP is solid. He is in the midst of a hot streak, so expect him to ride this out for a while and build momentum into 2020.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Washington Nationals Offense

The Washington Nationals had an incredible ending to their game last night against the New York Mets. The team combined for 11 runs on 15 hits with three walks and added a stolen base as well. Kurt Suzuki (2-for-5, 4 RBI) and Juan Soto (3-for-4, 3 RBI) each hit a home run as well.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Washington Nationals have superb starting pitching, only comparable to Houston. They don’t need to ask their offense for much on a given night. The team averages 5.31 runs a game and have scored the third-most runs in the National League behind the Dodgers and Braves. It may be difficult for the Nats to compete for the N.L. East but expect them to continue to win down the stretch and secure the top Wild Card spot.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks: Cole Lotta Whiffing Going On

5 years ago

written by

If the 8/27 DFS Pitching Picks was Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich, then the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks feels like the last overpriced microwave “chicken sandwich” at the local gas station.

Outside of another gem of a pitching matchup in Houston and Thor wielding his mighty hammer at Citi Field, the rest of the day’s slate is, well, bad.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200)

Cole will draw a high percentage of users, especially in FanDuel where he’s recorded at least 40 FD points in nine straight starts dating to June 30. He’s coming off his third start of at least 60 FD points in this run, a 67-pointer against the Tigers last Thursday. Cole currently leads the Majors in ERA+ with 163, due in part to his ability to humiliate hitters at offensive-friendly Minute Maid Park (.178 OBA). Since the All-Star Break, Cole has been downright frightening, running a 6-0 mark with 68 strikeouts over 47 innings, raising his strikeout rate to 37.3%. Ranked sixth in FIP at 2.98, Cole gets to a face a Rays team that was hitting just .202/.233/.323 before Tuesday’s beatdown where they managed just one run on seven hits. Play. Him.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000)

Friendly piece of advice: leave Cubs hitters alone if you’re banking on homers from your DFS lineup. Syndergaard has allowed just one homer in his last 54.1 innings, which explains the 28.7% hard contact rate he’s allowed. His fastball has expanded its bite, kicking up to 97.7 mph, as Syndergaard has increased his usage of premium gas to 58.6% of the time. Not quite in a run like Cole’s, Syndergaard has still produced a run of eight straight starts of at least 30 points at FanDuel that includes four starts of at least 46 FP. If you’re looking to save money but want an elite arm for cash game purposes, Syndergaard’s the play. Opponents are batting just .207 against him since the ASB while also allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000)

Man, it’s tough to suggest Yarborough after watching the Astros wear out Charlie Morton and the Rays bullpen for 15 runs on 18 hits Tuesday night. However, Yarborough is going to make more than one DFS’er think twice about a potential Astros stack. You’d think Yarborough’s home/road splits would tilt strongly toward dominance at the Trop, but you’d be wrong. Outside of Tampa Bay, he sports a 2.21 ERA and .174 OBA with just four homers allowed. Yarborough has elevated his strikeout rate to 22% and a K-BB% of 19%. Another reason to be hesitant on Astros bats tonight: Yarborough’s 29.4% hard contact rate allowed. Oh, here’s one more: an overall HR/FB% of just 8.8%. Forget Tuesday night and take your chances that Yarborough will meet a far better fate than Morton.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000)

Oh, the risk tolerance here. Scherzer himself said he’s not “out of the woods,” and it showed in the four innings and 71 pitches he tossed against the Pirates in his first start back from the DL. Name value and opponent are the only reasons why he’s suggested here, and while Scherzer’s proclaiming he’s not all the way back, there’s still the prospect of him delivering 35-40 points without getting to the seventh inning considering the Orioles are 20th in batter’s strikeouts and 26th in lBA (.252). B-More is also 22nd in adjusted batters runs (-65.3), making them a potentially nice blend of lousy that goes well with a hurler that has struck out 34.8% of the batters he’s faced. Overlooked in the midst of Scherzer’s clashes with injuries is a sharp reduction in fly balls, as it has gone from from seven straight seasons of at least 41.6% to 37.8%.

I strongly suggest NOT going with Scherzer in cash games. The risk far outweighs the rewards. While hesitant to add him here, facing the Orioles at home makes him more a GPP option.

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700)

Maeda has 49 and 43 FD point outing in two of his last three starts, with a 32 FD pointer sandwiched in between. His K game has shown up in his past two starts, having struck out 18 batters despite pitching a combined 10 innings. Don’t expect him to eclipse more than 85-90 pitches, but expect the whiffs to keep coming as Maeda continues to use his change up as an excellent third complement to his heater and slider. Madea has gone from using his changeup 15.2% of the time in 2018 to 24.2% this year at the expense of reducing the frequency of his fastball (44.4% in 2018, 37.7% this season).

He gets something of a dream matchup in the Padres, who have gone .182/.254/.278 with 2.1 runs per game over the past week. San Diego batters are whiffing nearly nine times per game in that span, making Maeda a sneaky good punt play for the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

8/23 MLB DFS Winners

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

A look back at some 8/23 MLB DFS Winners plus their outlooks for the near future and rest of the season.

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8/23 MLB DFS Winner

Gerrit Cole, DET at HOU

Cole delivered right where Verlander left off: with a dominating performance against the Tigers. And our Premium Gold data-driven projection model was all over him:

Cole was by far, the highest point projection pitcher on the night. And he lived up to that billing with a seven inning, two hit, one walk, 12 strikeout scoreless performance. That was good enough for his 15th victory.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Cole and the rest of the Astros are battling the Yankees for home-field advantage in the A.L. playoffs. With the Yankees being swept in Oakland and now facing the Dodgers this weekend, the road to the World Series could go through Houston. This fact may cause the Astros to use Cole regularly and allow him to pad his already gaudy stats.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: Yoan Moncada

Moncada made a splash in his return to the lineup Thursday, contributing a double and a home run in his first game action since July 30. He was also highly rated in our projection models despite missing the previous 22 games with a hamstring injury:

Our projection model had him predicted at over 9 DK points. Not many others out there had him that high coming off of injury.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Players like Moncada are who savvy DFS enthusiasts look at this time of year. The White Sox are a rebuilding team and will look at players like him to lead the way. He will play every day (injury permitting) and has a lot to prove.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: Noah Syndergaard

It was a pitching duel in Queens until the rains came. Thor’s final line looked like this: six innings pitched with only two hits allowed, no walks nor runs and five punch outs. Again, our data driven projection model was very high on Thor:

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Mets are fighting for a N.L. playoff spot and Thor is rounding into form. That seems like a recipe for success in the DFS world every fifth day.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: The Nationals Offense

I guess we need to decide if the Nationals are this good or if the Pirates are this bad. It is likely a little bit of both. In either case, our CEO and founder Jason Mezrahi was all over this team in the Premium Gold Cheat Sheet, naming them one his top stacks:

The Nationals scored seven runs, including long balls from Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The current wild-card leader in the N.L, the Nationals will roll out a powerful lineup each night. They are poised to make another playoff appearance. And to make your lineup page look impressive.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

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Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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