We are back for our third major of the year at the US Open, following perhaps one of the most interesting weeks in recent golfing history. In the current climate, it is hard to avoid the controversy coming out of the Saudi Arabian sports-washing that is the LIV Golf tour and it will be an interesting sideshow to observe how the notoriously rowdy Boston crowds will greet the defectors that tee it up this week.
The RBC Canadian Open played out just as well as it could have for the PGA Tour. A star-studded final grouping of Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and eventual winner Rory McIlroy provided can’t miss action that easily surpassed LIV Golf’s viewership numbers. McIlroy later revealing his motivation in his victory interview being the win took him past Greg Norman’s 20 PGA Tour wins was the icing on the cake and one most golf fans would have enjoyed. Perhaps Norman’s new 54-hole tournament provides a nod to his ability to blow a 3-round lead, but the PGA Tour will be absolutely thrilled with how the narrative ended.
As ecstatic as the PGA Tour would have been with the results, it was a week of “what could have been” for our tips. Top pick Matthew Fitzpatrick bolted out of the gates with 4 birdies in 5 holes to sit one shot off the lead after the first round, only to do nothing from there. The pivotal moment came in the second round when Fitzpatrick held a three-shot lead and had every chance to run away with it only to close with a run of double bogey, birdie, and 3 bogeys in his last 5 holes on Friday effectively taking him out of contention mentally.
Brendon Todd and Aaron Rai finished just one shot off a Top 10 placing for us at odds of $8.00 and $8.50, John Huh finished two shots off a Top 20 at odds of $7.50, and Ryan Armour entered the third round in 19th but could not keep up with an extremely low scoring final day not playing to his strengths.
All in all, it is hard to begrudge a leader board where the favourites rose to the top at a time when they perhaps most needed to send a strong message to the rival Saudi golf league: that the best golfers in the world will continue to play on the PGA Tour. And as much as the LIV Golf commentators loved to wax lyrical about how every putt could potentially earn XYZ dollars for the golfer, we saw a Canadian Open tournament that meant something with passion, history, and legacy all at stake. The hordes of fans rushing the 18th green indicate that this still means a great deal.
As we look to Brookline, Massachusetts for our penultimate major of the year, another opportunity arises for someone to build such a legacy. Who should you bet for the 122nd US Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.
The Country Club provides host for the 122nd US Open and promises to be a challenging venue that should make for fantastic viewing. Playing as a 7,264-yard par-70 course, on paper it may not appear to be one of the longest renditions of this tournament. This is partly deceptive. I do understand the narrative many other tipsters have followed, highlighting how driving accuracy will be imperative to avoid the penal rough lining these narrowing fairways.
Discounting driving distance totally would be a mistake. The course provides one very short par 3 at 131 yards, alongside several shorter par 4s complimented by longer par4s and a monster par 5 as a result. Of those holes, they measure as follows:
I much prefer looking at a total driving aspect entering this week, with so many holes providing the potential for a long driver to gain advantages over the field if they can keep it in the short grass. The rough that greets is a real mix of perennial rye, Kentucky Bluegrass, Poa Annua, and thick fescue if you stray far enough.
Holding the greens will remain a challenge, and even more so from the rough, with the greens on offer providing miniscule targets. At an average of just 4,388 sq ft these are the second smallest ever in major championship history (behind only Pebble Beach as the exception) and, in fact, are some of the smallest on PGA Tour (Harbour Town the only other I am aware of). The course superintendent has also promised greens to run at a speedy 12 on the stimpmeter and should be firm further adding to the problem golfers will face.
Miss the green and you’ll be greeted again with either thick rough, one of the many deep bunkers that surround in droves, or “chocolate drops” which are essentially piles of leftovers rocks during construction that have grown over with grass. Even when you find the flat surface, highly undulated and quick greens promise to make even short putts worthy of attention. To the eye, comparisons to links courses and The Open Championship are certainly understandable.
All up a highly penal test of a golfer’s entire game is on the cards, which will provide a high level of volatility and a win at single figures the most likely outcome.
In addition to the natural variance which comes with this course setup, gusty winds promise to add further volatility to this week.
Of the conditions, Thursday morning provides the best opportunities with winds of just 2-8mph and gusts at a moderate 8-16mph. Thursday PM sees the highest winds of the first two days, prevailing at 12-15mph and gust of 25-30mph could prove significant when targeting these tiny greens.
Friday conditions should be consistent all day, with winds of 9-12mph and gusts of 18-28mph throughout the day. There is a small chance of rain Friday afternoon which may provide some very welcome softening of conditions.
Winds should continue to play a factor across the weekend, with little reprieve forecast and winds between 8-11mph with gusts at 20-25mph throughout.
https://www.windy.com/42.314/-71.150/wind?41.747,-71.147,8,m:ePGaecA
There is an edge here for the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. I will be playing this near exclusively, with the only divergence from this strategy done so for specific reasons.
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This week we have a stacked field and find you some winning PGA DFS teams at the highly demanding and difficult Torrey Pines South Course in the U.S. Open!
Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm’s only flaws seem to be mental, but he seemed mature, reflective and generally loose and comfortable during his interview on Tuesday, even when peppered with a lot of questions about the COVID snafu and how that all transpired. Rahmbo is No. 12 on tour in SG: APP this season, and he’s second and third (respectively) in SG: T2G and SG: OTT. He was playing great golf at the Memorial before he had to withdraw, and the 2017 Farmers champion LOVES Torrey Pines (T7-2-T5-T29-WIN in his last five years here). The Spaniard also finished second at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, so he’s definitely in play – I just worry a bit about his quick backswing and equally quick temper on a course that will play tougher than it usually does.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – As always, my main concern is putting with DJ, who doesn’t make a whole lot of 5-10 footers, a stat that is crucial at the U.S. Open – and a reason I’m not looking too hard at Hideki Matsuyama this week (despite the current
Masters champ’s amazing long iron play and decent record at Torrey Pines). Of course, because DJ’s PGA DFS ownership should be relatively low this week, his talent and length make him a fine contrarian play for GPPs. If I come in slightly ahead of field ownership, I’ll be happy, because there’s no need to go all-in with this guy, even if he is the OWGR No. 1.
Rory McIlroy (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, I’m interested in Rory because of his projected ownership (even if it creeps up a bit as we approach Thursday morning), and he’s under $10K this week in a tournament he has every intention of winning. I’ll talk more about the likely chalky Xander Schauffele later, but starting off a lineup with McIlroy and X-Man still leaves you with $7,700 per golfer (Phil Mickelson’s price this week), a strategy I’ll be using in several GPP lineups. Rory still kills it off the tee and knows how to grind out even par and one-under rounds in tough conditions, and the baby discount could help us by allowing a roster construction that avoids playing a bomb elsewhere in that dicey low-mid range.
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Morikawa’s elite ball-striking (he basically gains anywhere from five to ten strokes per round on approach) will probably keep him in any golf tournament at this point, but the difficulty of these Poa annua greens may prevent him from winning another major until the next Masters or PGA Championship. Still, he’s a fine PGA DFS cash game anchor because even on the most difficult surfaces, his spectacular iron play keeps him on the leaderboard.
Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas (GPP)
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,300) – Schauffele checks all the boxes this week and makes a lot of 5-10 footers (No. 10 on tour). Currently the No. 6 player in the world, he also finished second here at the Farmers in January during a 2019-2021 run that included nine straight Top 17s and a remarkable 17 straight Top 25s. His missed cuts at the Players and PGA Championship could keep a few folks away, but I like him in all formats this week (cash or tourney) and he’ll be a staple of my single-entry and large-field GPPs.
Patrick Reed (DK $9.000) – Reed is No. 1 on tour in 3PA, which is going to be one of those stats that should help weed out similarly priced players in single-entry GPPs. It sounds as if preventing meltdowns on these putting surfaces could be a huge help in making the cut and getting in contention, and while Reed’s extremely spotty off the tee, his putter will keep him in most tournaments. His projected PGA DFS ownership is still pretty high, but again – we can find some leverage elsewhere if we need to.
Tony Finau (DK $8,900) – I may prefer spending the extra few hundred on Schauffele or Cantlay in cash games, but Finau has played sparkling golf at Torrey Pines in the past five years (T2-T6-T13-T6-T4) – albeit under less difficult conditions. And while he’s not electric with the flatstick, he ranks in the top 50 on tour this week in 3PA. Winning a U.S. Open for your second PGA Tour victory is a bit of a stretch, but we know he can finish in the Top 15, which he’s done in all three U.S. opens when he’s made the cut, including a T8 in 2020.
Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) –A great ball striker who can putt a bit and likes both Poa annua and Torrey Pines, his length will help navigate some of the distance on the long par 4s and he’s already shown an ability to contend on the big stages of major championships. I don’t think his ownership will be oppressively high – at least to the point where he’s a bad play in large-field GPPs, and even if he lands in the 15-20% range, I’m buying.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,100) – I’ll be including Oosty in my PGA DFS player pool for just about every major unless the back injuries that have plagued him in the past flare up – even if it’s hard to tell when that may happen. The swing is still very pure, and he’s an elite putter from 5-10 feet (ranking first on the PGA Tour this season). Sweet Louie is just very hard to get away from when I’m perusing this price range.
Cameron Smith (DK $8,000) – I love how Smith’s game developed in 2021, and while his overall SG numbers are decent, the thing that separates him from a lot of other golfers in this range is his elite putting. He’s solid at getting up and down and he doesn’t three-putt that much because he one-putts 44.15% of the time! Sia talked a bit about him in the Breakdown and I’ll be overweight on the field. While his ball-striking remains the biggest concern, I’m willing to take a stab and play the Aussie in single-entry for some leverage.
Jason Kokrak (DK $7,600) – Aside from Phil and his astounding win at Kiawah Island, Kokrak has probably had the best 2020-21 of anybody in this range, with his first two career wins coming at the CJ CUP in October 2020 and another victory at the Charles Schwab at the end of May. Kokrak has massive upside for a guy who’s easy to roster in all kinds of builds, and he’s made the cut in his last three U.S. Opens, including a T17 at Winged Foot in 2020.
Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (Cash), Matt Fitzpatrick (GPP), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Shane Lowry
Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman has burned me more times than I can count, but I refuse to give in to the “never again” thinking that keeps DFS pros from winning GPPs. I might not make him a staple of my single-entry builds, but he’s certainly in play in most formats at this price point and has a truly impressive course history at Torrey Pines (T18-WIN-T43-T8-T14 in his last five Farmers Insurance appearances). Leishman is adept at hitting some different shot shapes – a helpful trait this week – and he’s a solid enough putter to post a Top 5 or 10 finish, an attainable goal in this price range.
Harris English (DK $7,300) – His form has come around a bit since a few MCs earlier in 2021, and he’s made the cut at all five U.S. Opens he’s participated in, including a T4 in 2020 at Winged Foot. The downside is that he’s missed three straight cuts at the Farmers after some moderate success in 2017 and 2018 (T8 and T14). He may be flying under the radar a bit, but we can double-check ownership projections before lock and make some adjustments to our exposure in GPPs.
Stewart Cink (DK $7,200) – We’ve talked before about Cink’s resurgence and solid numbers off the tee, but it’s important to point out how much experience he has at this venue. This will be his first U.S. Open appearance since 2017, when he finished T46 at Erin Hills, but there’s still plenty of game left in his old bones. I’ll be using Cink at about a 10-15% rate in my 20-max and large-field GPPs.
Ryan Palmer (DK $7,100) – A course horse with a pair of second-place finishes in the Farmers over the past four years, Palmer has missed his last two U.S. Open cuts but stands to benefit from his familiarity with this popular tour venue. I’m most concerned with how he handles the longer rough this week, but he checks most of the boxes in our focus stat categories (No. 34 on tour in SG:OTT) and seems underpriced given his upside.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Poulter is coming off a T30 at the PGA Championship, a T3 at the Charles Schwab, and most recently a T25 at Congaree in the Palmetto Championship, and he’s well known for solid numbers on Poa annua greens and from 5-10 feet. The length of Torrey Pines could be an issue this week, but for this bargain price, I consider him worthy of a few GPP entries.
Brendan Todd (DK $6,900) – Another putting specialist who can elevate his game to the next level when he’s striking it well, Todd’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the 20-30 yards of distance he’ll be losing to the longer hitters in the field and hitting approaches from 175-200+. He’s GPP only because of his struggles off the tee and on those longer approach shots, but he’s still in my player pool as of now for his short game prowess.
Lanto Griffin (DK $6,800) – I’m a little surprised Griffin isn’t more than $7K this week based on his metrics and course history, which include a T7 at the Farmers this year and a T12 in 2018. With four MCs over his last five tournaments, the form is pretty ugly, but the venue and his skill set portend a better finish more along the lines of the steady stretch of Top 35 he posted in February and March.
Justin Suh (DK $6,600) – A USC standout who’s often forgotten among all-star crop of 2019 rookies, Suh has yet to make his mark on the PGA Tour but has played Torrey Pines 20+ times in his life. It won’t be playing as easily as it probably did during his junior and collegiate days, but Suh qualified last week to tee it up again here – and he could make for a decent final piece in a few GPP lineups.
More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Brian Harman (Cash), Charley Hoffman, Max Homa (GPP), Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Charl Schwartzel (Cash), Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Adam Hadwin, Wyndham Clark
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – He made the cut at the U.S. Opens in 2016 and 2018, and he’s had some special individual rounds this season. He also has two top 10 finishes at Torrey Pines in the past five years and while he’s not known as a guy who can put together four good rounds, if he shines in the first two days he could finish among the Top 25 and make value.
Chan Kim (DK $6,100) – Kim is worth slotting into a few GPP entries based on his near-minimum salary, where he’s basically the only one I’ll be using. Nick “Stix” Bretwisch turned me onto the South Korean’s game, and while he’s yet to make the cut in his previous three U.S Open appearances, he’s got the lowest betting odds in this range and he does have a T11 at the R&A’s Open Championship in 2017.
Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker, Sam Ryder, J.J. Spaun
Don’t look now, but the U.S. Open Championship is already here. This is going to be a very tough course and the rough will not be pleasant. My focus for the U.S. Open Initial Picks will be on approach, accuracy off the tee and short game (ARG and PUTT). We are not going to have super low scores in this one so keep finishing position in that back of your mind as that will be more important than most tournaments. We will be on LIVE at 8:30 tonight (Tuesday) to breakdown the entire slate @windailysports on Twitter, Twitch and YouTube. We’ll also have more articles on WinDailySports.com!
Jon Rahm (11000) – It’s pretty clear that Rahm checks all the boxes and he’s my favorite in this elite range. OTT game is outstanding and it’s rare when his irons fail him (it does happen, but it’s rare). My favorite part about Rahm on such a difficult course is he appears to have his temperament under control.
Webb Simpson (9700) – If you’re looking for a great APP game and a great short game, you’ve found it in Webb. He’s not long off the tee but I’m looking for accuracy more than I am looking for length this week. Don’t get me wrong, length will be important as well this week, but I need my guys in the fairway as the rough is going to be big trouble.
Daniel Berger (9200) – Mr. Under the Radar. All he does is show up and find himself in the mix on Sundays. There isn’t really a weak spot with Berger and his short game should pay dividends this week. Berger also picks up strokes on the field on this putting surface.
Jason Day (8800) – Hasn’t been good his last couple of tournaments and that should keep ownership down. He finished 4th at the PGA which was also a very difficult course and I have no issue taking a chance on the pedigree.
Adam Scott (8700) – He hasn’t been super impressive since his return at the PGA, but if you consider he waited the longest of all the top golfers to resume play, his numbers don’t look bad. This week I’m including a lot of golfers that have the pedigree and that can handle the ups and downs of a very tough course.
Paul Casey (7900) – Your classic boom or bust play, but the boom has been evident this year and I’m happy to have some shares. Casey can be very shaky with the short game, but his OTT and APP metrics grade out very well.
Matthew Wolff (7700) – Finished 4th at the PGA and 16th at BMW and is certainly your best bargain of the Morikawa, Hovland and Wolff trio. He’s going to really need to be dialed in with the irons as the ARG game isn’t good. I won’t be heavy on Wolff but the upside is there so certainly a few shares.
Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – The strokes gained metrics don’t look great but his finishing positions at tough courses look fantastic. Not a guy I’m usually on, but when majors come around he’s worth a look.
Sungjae Im (7500) – Speaking of boom or bust. Sungjae is one of those golfers you don’t want a lot of shares of, but you do want some. He gains strokes in all metrics, but he’ll need to avoid the blow up spot.
Brendon Todd (7400) – Always seems to be dialed in with his irons which hopefully makes up for him being short off the tee. He finds himself in contention too often to be ignored at this price.
Kevin Streelman (6700) – Gained strokes everywhere at the Safeway Open last week. Streelman has his issues OTT at times and can go ice cold with the putter but you are definitely getting good value with Streelman in this bottom end range. This also happens to be his best putting surface.
Chez Reavie (6900) – Very accurate OTT and has been excellent on APP (picked up 7 strokes on the field last week and 3 at the Northern Trust). Coming in good form and checking the necessary boxes puts Reavie as a very good bargain.
Secret Weapon (sub 7k/<5% ownership) – Tune into Discord.
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