US Open Picks

Before getting into our betting tips for the US Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Pinehurst No. 2, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the US Open golf betting tips below.

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US Open Golf Betting Tips

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
4u E/W +1200 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Collin Morikawa
2.5u E/W +1600 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
1u E/W +7500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +250 (Various)

Corey Conners
0.5u E/W +8000 (BetVictor 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +280 (TAB)

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +320 (Various)
And
3u Top 40 +160 (TAB)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +17500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +187 (Bet365 w. 25% Bet Boost)

Davis Thompson
0.25u E/W +30000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365 )
And
2.5u Top 40 +220 (Bet365 )

The Scottie Scheffler Conversation

As is often the case in 2024, you have to approach the Scottie Scheffler conversation. The same question remains when betting on the US Open.

There are couple of reasons to avoid betting Scheffler outright this week. The odds on offer are the shortest for a golfer in 15 years. That was Tiger Woods at +180 in the 2009 PGA Championship. It goes without saying that is outrageous odds for any golfer in one of the best fields of the year. Additionally, there may perhaps be no more appropriate golf course for taking Scheffler on.

In some ways, Pinehurst No. 2 is just plain unfair. Given the firmness of the course and fast dome shaped greens, even good approach shots may be punished this week. This can lead to volatility and, perhaps unfortunately, the best golfer of the week tournament may not actually win the tournament.

Sure, Scheffler could runaway with victory here much like Martin Kaymer did in 2014. We have to take on that risk. I’d instead favour taking him match-ups or tournament bets for a likely similar return. As always at DeepDiveGolf, we are betting value for the US Open. That means identifying situations where betting odds for the US Open are not reflective of the players actual chances.

US Open Betting Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

For the second tournament in a row, I am leading with Xander as my headline selection. I spoke before the Memorial Tournament of his ability on approach from 200+ yards. At least a third of all approach shots will come from that category. Schauffele is the best in the world in that metric, and it isn’t particularly close.

In many ways, Xander has been a victim of Scheffler’s success. He has been playing his best golf in his career. Again, that has been by quite some margin. Unfortunately, he has come up against a golfer playing at Tiger-esque levels in 2024.

We saw in 2022 that Schauffele managed to compile a quick run of successive victories. Having achieved his first win in 18 months, he also managed to get the Major victory monkey off his back when winning the PGA Championship.

His US Open record is impeccable reading 5-6-3-5-7-14-10 in his 7 appearances. He has finished no worse than 18th in his last 9 Major Championship appearances. Likewise, the formline at Donald Ross designed East Lake is also impressive. He has gone W-7-2-2-5-4-2 there.

Xander is a previous runner-up at the Open Championship and a winner at a tricky Scottish Open, where -7 was enough. He was also 2nd in North Carolina a few weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship for good measure.

Given his form, I show fair odds at 9/1. So, although 12/1 may seem short, that actually represents one of the better expected value on the US Open betting board. He could surprise a golf world with all eyes on Scottie Scheffler, and win back-to-back Majors this week.

Collin Morikawa

Given a short-priced option at the top and a volatile golf course, I decided to take just one other option up top before heading to the outsiders. And Morikawa shaped as the best additional selection within that range.

Much consideration was given to Hovland. Despite the inevitable return to Joe Mayo, I still hold concerns about his around the green game at a venue where short-game creativity should be key. Morikawa actually holds little worry in that category, rating out 9th in this field over the last 6 months.

Since reuniting with a former coach himself, Rick Sessinghaus, we have seen a significant resurgence in form from Morikawa. He has contended at both Majors, finishing 3rd at The Masters and 4th at the PGA Championship. He has finished no worse than 16th since that Masters performance. The most pleasing has been the return to his excellent approach play. He has improved on approach in his last 4 tournaments, ranking 4th for SG: APP last week.

Add into the mix that he is a previous Open Championship winner, and we could be looking at another golfer being just one win away from the career Grand Slam.

Min Woo Lee

So, we head swiftly into our longer shots, and few make better claims than Min Woo Lee.

Min Woo was a popular selection at the beginning of the year to win the US Open. For some reason, most likely the Scheffler effect, a lot of that noise has quietened down. As such, we can grab him this week at 75/1 when he was similar odds at the beginning of the year.

Another winner of the Scottish Open, Min Woo has plenty of experience on the Sandbelt courses in Australia to draw upon. I do suspect that this test will shape quite similar to that area. He has finished 27th and 5th in his two US Open appearances to date, with just one round hindering his chances on both occasions.

His approach play is often the question. However, his strongest range is from over 200+ yards, aided by his high clubhead speed meaning he can approach with a more lofted club than others. He has now gained on the field in that regard in 3 out of 4 most recent appearances.

Finally, there are some links between previous US Open leaderboards at Pinehurst No. 2 and TPC Sawgrass. Martin Kaymer is a champion at both, with 2014 runner-up Rickie Fowler also linking the two. As such, his contending on debut there in 2023 could see him join his sister Min Jee Lee in both having won the US Open.

Corey Conners

I have been on the Conners train for quite some time in 2024, and remain on him this week.

What many are sleeping on is the amount of driving distance he has added this year. Long regarded as a very accurate driver, he has now gained on the field for driving distance for every tournament bar two since July 2023.

Again, he ranks out very well for approach shots over 200+ yards. He ranks 3rd in that metric for 2024, behind Tony Finau who has well documented struggles on bermudagrass greens.

Also being missed is the swift improvement in his short-game of late, ranking as one of the sharpest improvers compared to historical baseline in that metric for the last 3 months. Conners has contended at Sawgrass twice and holds 20s at both the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.

Certainly, Conner’s US Open record leaves a lot to be desired. In saying that, as outlined in my preview I do suspect that this golf course plays quite a bit different to many other US Open venues. He has not missed a cut since the US Open last year, marking 23 tournaments. That improvement in putting and ATG has seen him finish 26th or better in his last 5 tournaments.

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Given the lack of strokes gained data, capping LIV Golf players is notoriously tricky. But let’s not be too hard on them, the first LIV Golf tournament didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website. So, you could argue they have come a long way by including ground-breaking statistics like Greens in Regulation.

Cam Smith looked a likely bet for me until he shot a round of 80 in last week’s tournament. My sources on the ground (I have links to his camp through his caddy) say that he is loving Pinehurst No. 2 thus far. Whether being scared off by that 3rd round performance at LIV Houston was wise remains to be seen.

Instead, I’ll side with Dean Burmester here. We saw some of the best of Burmy at the PGA Championship when he finished 12th off the back of a special invite. He finished 11th at The Open Championship held at St Andrews behind Cam Smith, as well as holding a 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

His prodigious distance should remain an asset, ranking 4th in this field over the last two years for driving distance. Likewise, he possesses deft touch around the greens where he is 16th over the past two years. Looking over that timeframe is necessary given the lack of LIV data.

Burmester has tended to do best in tricky conditions. He most notably won at a difficult Doral at -11 earlier this year. That was his 4th victory at -12 or higher.

He ranks as the best long-shot in my books and warranted me marking him for our Bet Boost at the TAB this week.

Ryan Fox

I’ve been called the “Fox Whisperer” on occasion, and that followed in the Canadian Open. We selected Foxy that week at huge odds, he held a 4 shot lead with 25 holes to go, before eventually finishing 7th.

That was the second time this season where he has capitulated from contention. Ryan Fox was just two strokes off the lead at The Masters before fading. Again, he did the same in Canada when spotting the leaderboard and realising where he sat in the tournament.

Fox has a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links, where he finished 2nd in his defense. He also finished 16th in The Open Championship and has a 4th and 6th at the Scottish Open. I asked him about his love for links golf in the below interview (7m30 mark). Fox commented that he loved the creativity that links golf allowed him around the greens, something which will be imperative in this contest.

The golf course reminds me a lot of Te Arai Links, his home golf course in New Zealand. Foxy swiftly set the course record there shooting a bogey-free 60 with 12 birdies.

It will of course be a big ask to win this. However, we have seen stranger things when betting at the US Open previously. None more so than the Kiwi connection to Pinehurst No. 2, with Michael Campbell winning here in 2005 and Danny Lee also winning the US Amateur at this venue.

Davis Thompson

Finally, I was tempted by Tom McKibbin and Victor Perez to round out the selections. McKibbin won a junior tournament here in 2015, is shaping as one of the best players on the DP World Tour, has plenty of links form, and is a winner at a very difficult golf course Green Eagle where he finished 8th when defending. Perez has made some notable gains on approach in his last 3 tournaments, has won the Alfred Dunhill Links, and was 12th in the PGA Championship at the Donald Ross designed Oak Hill.

Instead, I can’t resist a speculative bet on Davis Thompson. Thompson is both long and straight with driver in hand, which will be helpful at tricky fairways to find on what is still a long golf course nonetheless.

He also ranks well for approach, rating out 26th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months. Included in that was when 15th on approach last week, despite actually losing strokes on approach in the final round. Particularly, he has traditionally been best on approach from longer range.

Thompson is handy enough ATG, rating out 32nd in this field over the past 6 months. Much of his performance will come down to his performance with the putter. Positive signs have been seen of late, as well as additional support from prior performances on bermudagrass greens. Winning is more than likely beyond him, but he looks value for a Top 40 and perhaps even a cheeky Top 20.

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