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UFC on ABC 2.

VETTORI v HOLLAND

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC on ABC 2 slate! We’ve had a great start to UFC in 2021. Let’s make sure it continues! We have a nice-sized card ahead of us, with currently 13 scheduled fights to take place. Make sure to check in the chat regularly to ensure you don’t have any postponed fights in your lineups. The main event is again between two Middleweight fighters on a short notice matchup, Marvin Vettori and BIG MOUTH Kevin Holland (filling in for the injured Darren Till), who are competing for a top spot in the UFC Middleweight Rankings. Holland can use this opportunity to gain momentum after losing to Derek Brunson in what ended up being a pretty boring fight less than a month ago (aside from Holland’s commentary). Holland was the better fighter in that matchup, but his reckless style and incessant talking cost him the win that night. I am sure that tonight many people will look past him after the last fight, but Holland himself will come in more measured and take the fight to Vettori, a well-accomplished fighter in his own right (Hard Striker with some BJJ accolades).

A little warning about Holland. As I said in Holland’s last fight vs Brunson. Uncle Dana bestowed the nickname “big mouth” on Holland after the first time he saw him fight on the contender series. Holland wouldn’t stop talking to his opponent and to Dana. This is something we have to keep in mind as his style is very distracting to other fighters which allows him to take bigger risks. That doesn’t change the fact that he attempts some very risky maneuvers so be cautious when playing him. (ie taking Jacare Souza AND Derek Brunson to the ground, we have now seen the positives and the negatives of Holland’s fight style)

SLATE STARTS AT 11:30 AM EST

Exposure to the main event IS high recommended mandatory. DFS production in this fight will be high as it is a five-round fight between two high output fighters. I’m definitely not against branching away from the Main Event. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 23, Vettori v Holland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Nina Nunes (-160) (DK 8300) (FD $16) vs. Mackenzie Dern (+130) (DK 7900) (FD $16).

Wow, honestly, I was a little shocked to see the odds on this fight as close as they are. Nina is not as good as her wife. There is no question. On top of that, Nina hasn’t fought since 2019 and hasn’t won since 2018. On the other hand, Mackenzie has remained extremely active and added on to her 10-1 record three times in 2020. Although her last win was very close, her UFC record doesn’t ask how, only how many. Her other two wins in 2020 were flawless, and rest assured if this fight ends up on the ground, Nina (purple belt) will have no chance, Dern is an ELITE BJJ (black belt doesn’t even begin to describe her star-studded BJJ resume, too much to cover here) artist and I don’t see this one lasting very long either. Dern’s only loss came after her first fight back from pregnancy against a really tough opponent in Amanda Ribas. Similarly, this is Nina’s first fight back following her pregnancy in March 2020 against a tough opponent…

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mackenzie Dern (+130) (DK 7900) (FD $16). ROUND ONE SUBMISSION (possible ROUND TWO SUBMISSION).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Scott Holtzman (+225) (DK 7000) (FD $10) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-275) (DK 9200) (FD $20).

In this matchup, the UFC will be looking to get their star signing back on track after a questionable loss to a formidable opponent (Guram Kutateladze) to begin his UFC career. Polish UFC fans know Mateusz as their next big superstar, and it’s not hard to understand why. In Poland, Gamrot amassed a 17-0 record and became the two-division KSW champion before signing to the UFC. There’s only one word to describe his Polish fights, Dominant. When he finally came stateside, he received plaudits from Polish Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Blachowicz and Polish former Women’s Strawweight Champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk as “Poland’s Next Champion.” Trust me; these two know what they’re talking about. In his first UFC performance, he put in three solid rounds, and despite the loss, he put up fantastic numbers with 52 sig strikes and 5 takedowns over three rounds. His opponent Scott Holtzman is somewhat of a UFC journeyman, having fought in 11 UFC fights coming into tonight. He has struggled to find any consistency in the UFC, going 7-4 in the organization. His UFC stats are ok, nothing special, and he does get taken down a little too often (not a good sign against a strong grappler like Gamrot). Tonight, Gamer will get the job done. The only real question is how he’ll decide to do it.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mateusz Gamrot (-275) (DK 9200) (FD $20) SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Sam Alvey (+162) (DK 7200) (FD $10) vs. Julian Marquez (-188) (DK 9000) (FD $19).

After calling out Miley Cyrus following his win two months ago against Maki Pitolo, the UFC decided to match him up with Smilin’ Sam Alvey instead. Now despite Sam’s long UFC tenure, this fight is a pretty big mismatch. There is so much to say; let’s start with the fact that Alvey is on a pretty bad losing streak right now, four fights to be exact, not including his split decision draw against Da Jung Un last year. Alvey hasn’t actually won a fight since 2018, and I think it’s safe to predict that when Alvey does lose, the UFC will finally have the excuse they needed to kick Alvey to the curb. To his credit, Alvey is a brawler and won’t quick until the pulp has literally been beaten out of him and has been able to stay in the UFC for 20 bouts, coming into tonight with a 10-9-1 record. Stats wise though, Alvey will be completely out of his element. From what we’ve seen out of Marquez, he’ll get it done in whatever way he can. In his UFC (and DWCS) career, he’s had three impressive wins and a split decision loss where he performed well. This fight will be a great opportunity for Marquez to get the statement win that he’s been seeking to spark his hype train. Stats wise, he’ll always be looking for the submission as we saw last fight where he attempted three submissions before locking in his fourth and final submission, which was the anaconda choke that ended the fight. Still, Marquez can always stand and bang if need be with pretty high output over his four fights.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Julian Marquez (-188) (DK 9000) (FD $19) FIRST-ROUND TKO (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION).

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Kevin Holland GPP +275 (DK 6600) (FD $17) (Marvin Vettori works too)

Luis Saldana -138 (DK 8600) (FD $18) (Jordan Griffin GPP)

Jack Shore -170 (DK 8000) (FD $18)

Joe Solecki -250 (DK 9100) (FD $20) (Jim Miller GPP, fight would be closer if Jim was younger)

Sodiq Yusuff -150 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Arnold Allen works too, both are really interesting prospects, this one is gonna be a banger, possible FoTN)

Ignacio Bahamondes -188 (DK 8900) (FD $19) (I’m really high on this kid but he struggled a bit in the weigh-ins which pushed him off my top article picks, he should still get the job done, John Makdessi GPP)

Daniel Rodriguez -150 (DK 8800) (FD $19) (Wasn’t the best last fight, but it’s generally understood that he got robbed by the judges. His opponent wasn’t that great in his last fight, where he missed weight badly and has been a bit controversial, to say the least. Given that he made weight and seems to be taking this fight seriously, he could put up some points though for a GPP with his high striking output, Mike Perry GPP)

Yorgan De Castro -334 (DK 9400) (FD $21) (generally fading this one) (Jarjis Danho works as a GPP play since De Castro is nothing special, but this should be a quick fight)

Sasha Palatnikov GPP (REALLY RISKY) +240 (DK 6700) (FD $8) (Impa Kasangany is good too, but he hasn’t fought since that brutal KO against Joaquin Buckley, which was his first career loss, Sasha is coming off a huge underdog win where he stole Louis Cosce’s undefeated record with a strong comeback performance. So we have an interesting matchup with fighters who are coming out of similar matchup scenarios but are coming off the opposite sides of them)

William Knight +110 (DK 7800) (FD $18) (Da-Un Jung GPP) (generally fading this one)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 260.

MIOCIC VS NGANNOU 2

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC 260 slate! We’ve had a great start to UFC in 2021, lets make sure it continues! We have a smaller numbered card ahead of us with currently 10 scheduled fights to take place. Make sure to check in the chat regularly to ensure you don’t have any postponed fights in your lineups. The main event is again between two Heavyweight fighters, Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou who are competing for the UFC Heavyweight title. Stipe was successful in his last title defence against Daniel Cormier last year and is coming in as a slight underdog against the hard-hitting Ngannou.

A little warning about Ngannou, this fight will most likely go one of two ways. Either an early Ngannou knockout or a Stipe late finish/decision win. Ngannou has no tank and will not be effective as much as the fight goes on, especially in the fourth and fifth rounds. So keep in mind that the later it goes the worse Ngannou will do, just like in the first fight where Stipe won by decision. Ngannou can end the fight with one well-placed punch but to his credit Miocic also has knockout power and this should be a very interesting title fight

Exposure to the main event IS high recommended mandatory. DFS production in this fight will be high as it is a five-round fight between two high output fighters. I’m definitely not against branching away from the Main Event. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 260, Miocic v Ngannou 2.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Gillian Robertson (+140) (DK 7400) (FD $13) vs. Miranda Maverick (-170) (DK 8800) (FD $16).

This fight is interesting as Gillian Robertson is taking on the role of Gatekeeper for the Women’s Flyweight Division against the up-and-coming prospect Miranda Maverick. After a dominant showing against her last opponent Liana Jouja, the UFC is setting Maverick up with another winnable fight here against Robertson. I gotta be honest; I think we’re gonna see another outclassing here, and the fact that the odds are as close as they are is frankly a little surprising to me. Robertson looked horrible in her last fight and generally has trouble against talented strikers. I don’t see Gillian (Black belt) fairing well against Maverick, considering she had trouble taking Santos down, who is a BJJ blue belt. We don’t have much of a UFC level sample size for Maverick with just one round but 49 sig strikes in one round is fantastic for any fighter, especially since she is trained in BJJ (Brown Belt), Kickboxing and Muy Thai. Moreso value on FanDuel but still playable on DraftKings. For DraftKings specific value, I’d look at Alonzo Menifield (site-specific mispricing).

MY UFC DFS PICK: Miranda Maverick (-170) (DK 8800) (FD $16). ROUND ONE TKO (possible ROUND TWO KO).

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Sean O’Malley (-320) (DK 9200) (FD $23) vs. Thomas Almeida (+240) (DK 7000) (FD $8).

Ok, so I know the last time out, O’Malley cost people a lot of money, losing as a huge favourite to Chito Vera, but Almeida is a completely different opponent. Compared to the other competition O’Malley has faced, Almeida is a huge step-down, and he should have no problem picking him apart tonight with his quick hands and deceiving head movement. It’s honestly a shame that stuff is going to end this way for Almeida, as in 2016, he was one of the UFC’s hottest rising prospects at a whopping 21-0, eventually falling to fellow undefeated prospect Cody Garbrandt. But since having his 0 snatched at the hands of Garbrandt, Almeida’s gone 1-3 and had eye surgery in 2019. Now, although there is a bit of a strategy now when facing O’Malley (target the body and legs to stop his movement), Almeida won’t be able to handle Sugar Sean’s quick hands the same way he couldn’t handle Garbrandt’s.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean O’Malley (-320) (DK 9200) (FD $23) SECOND ROUND TKO (possible FIRST ROUND TKO).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Jamie Mullarky (+110) (DK 7600) (FD $14) vs. Khama Worthy (-140) (DK 8600) (FD $17).

Khama Worthy is a very very dangerous man and Mullarky is going to find that out first hand on Saturday night. Mullarky has yet to win a UFC fight, losing in two winnable fights. Now Mullarky has a much tougher test in the hard-hitting Khama Worthy. Worthy first made a splash in the UFC when he knocked out heavy favorite (and Knockout specialist) Devonte Smith in the first round and followed that up with another impressive third-round sub against the Violent Bob Ross last year. Worthy has been on a spectacular 7-1 run since 2017 with his only loss coming to an undefeated Ottman Azaitar in late 2020, no shame in that. Khama will have to watch for the takedowns and his takedown defence has been a little suspect but as long as he can establish his striking dominance early in the fight he will have no troubles here, especially with a UFC clip of 4.12 SLpM. With a loss here Mullarky will most likely get released and Khama will inch one step closer to cracking the UFC Lightweight Rankings.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Khama Worthy (-140) (DK 8600) (FD $17) FIRST-ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Francis Ngannou -120 (DK 8400) (FD $20) (Stipe Miocic works too, especially on DraftKings, less so on FanDuel. Stipe always shows up as an underdog too)

Abubakar Nurmagomedov -225 (DK 9-00) (FD $20) (yes he’s Khabib’s cousin, no he’s not as good as Khabib) (Jared Gooden GPP)

Abu Azaitar -105 (DK 8000) (FD $15)

Tyron Woodley (GPP) +200 (DK 7100) (FD $11) (Vincente Luque works well too, I like Vincente more for FanDuel) (Woodley has only lost to top competition since his championship run, these odds aren’t fair to him at all)

Modestas Bukauskas (GPP) +125 (DK 7700) (FD $12) (this is gonna be a brawl, I’m expecting a close one, possible FoTN)

Alonzo Menifield -290 (DK 8100) (FD $22) (Moreso on DraftKings, don’t really like Menifield on FanDuel at all. Also, Menifield’s cardio sucks Cherant GPP, better GPP options tonight though) (generally fading this one)

Omar Morales -185 (DK 8700) (FD $18) (Shane Young GPP) (generally fading this one too)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 5 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 22.

BRUNSON VS HOLLAND

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 22 slate! We’ve had a great start to UFC in 2020, lets make sure it continues! We have a decent card ahead of us with currently 11 scheduled fights to take place, make sure to check in the chat regularly to ensure you dont have any postponed fights in your lineups. The main event is again between two Middleweight fighters seeking to put themselves in title contention, between Derek Brunson and BIG MOUTH Kevin Holland. Kevin stole the show in 2020 going a perfect 5 out of 5 and is set for his first fight of the new year, his first main event and his first fight as a ranked fighter.

Uncle Dana bestowed the nickname “big mouth” on Holland after the first time he saw him fight on the contender series. Holland wouldn’t stop talking to his opponent and to Dana. This is something we have to keep in mind as his style is very distracting to other fighters which allows him to take bigger risks. That doesn’t change the fact that he attempts some very risky maneuvers so be cautious when playing him. (ie taking Jacare Souza to the ground)

Exposure to the main event IS essentially mandatory. DFS production in this fight will be high as it is a five round fight between two high output fighters. I’m definitely not against branching away from the Main Event. There will be three top play followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 22, Brunson v Holland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Roman Dolidze (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16) vs. Trevin Giles (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $16).

Trevin Giles is a good fighter, and this pick is not a knock against him but based on my analysis, Dolidze is just on another level. At this point, both fighters have had experience in the highest level and both have shown that they have what it takes to finish fights within the distance. The difference is the amount of power Dolidze can put in his punches AND he is a submission threat. Giles has struggled with UFC level submissions and over-relies on his takedown defence in order to avoid very dangerous situations. Coupled with the fact that Dolidze can throw with fight-ending intentions, I have to give the edge in this one to Dolidze. I am expecting one hell of a scrap and a possible Fight of the Night.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Roman Dolidze (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16). ROUND TWO TKO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Tai Tuivasa (-450) (DK 8900) (FD $18) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+350) (DK 6900) (FD $13).

Wow, so its been quite the week for Tai Tuivasa. He was initially set to fight against Don’tale Mays (he probably still would’ve won) and after he wasn’t medically cleared the UFC scrambled to find a late replacement to fight Tuivasa, and they found just that in Harry Hunsucker. I saw Hunsucker’s fight on the DWCS live and although he started off ok he quickly got caught and proceeded to be picked apart by the likes of Jared Vanderaa, in retrospect, that loss looked very bad and now he’s coming in against a UFC vet who can end fights very quickly as we saw against Stefan Struve. Tuivasa isn’t the best heavyweight fighter but he’s been given an absolute gift in this matchup. Considering his price was made when he was scheduled to fight Mayes, I’d lock Tuivasa in.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tai Tuivasa (-450) (DK 8900) (FD $18) FIRST ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Adrian Yanez (-220) (DK 8800) (FD $19) vs. Gustavo Lopez (+180) (DK 7400) (FD $11).

I actually like Gustavo Lopez as a fighter but he is in a really bad spot here. Yanez’s output is just insane, his SLpM in the UFC is over 7!!! (it is a small sample size but that is still unbelievable) To put that in context that’s around Max Holloway’s level of output and we saw what he produced against Calvin Kattar earlier this year. Yanez has ended both of his fights in front of Dana in a quick and brutal fashion. Under other circumstances, I would consider Lopez and Yanez will have to be aware of the submission threat posed by Lopez but tonight I’ll be all in on Yanez!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Adrian Yanez (-220) (DK 8800) (FD $19) FIRST-ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Kevin Holland -188 (DK 8400) (FD $20) (Derek Brunson works too)

Montel Jackson -700 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (opponent is overweight, this fight was a huge mismatch to begin with, a little too pricey but very safe pick, solid in cash)

Gregor Gillespie -250 (DK 9000) (FD $21) (Brad Riddell GPP)

Song Kenan (GPP) +170 (DK 7700) (FD $12) (Max Griffin works too)

Cheyanne Buys -350 (DK 9100) (FD $21) (Montserrat Ruiz GPP, Fade this fight in general, both fighters are relatively unimpressive)

Leonardo Santos (GPP) +170 (DK 7600) (FD $14) (Grant Dawson works too)

JP Buys -150 (DK 8300) (FD $17) (DO NOT TOUCH)

Macy Chiasson -220 (DK 8700) (FD $19) (DO NOT TOUCH)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 21.

EDWARDS V MUHAMMAD

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 21 slate! So far my article plays are doing really well so let’s hope we can keep the train rolling! We have a nice card ahead of us with currently 13 scheduled fights to take place, make sure to check in the chat regularly to ensure you dont have any postponed fights in your lineups. The main event is again between two Welterweights seeking to establish themselves in the division in Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad.

Exposure to the main event IS NOT mandatory. DFS production in this fight will be questionable, but I’d have some shares and I’m definitely not against branching away from the Main Event. There will be one top play followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 21, Edwards v Muhammad.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Dan Ige (-150) (DK 8600) (FD $18) vs. Gavin Tucker (+125) (DK 7600) (FD $13).

Tucker is in an interesting spot here, he’s coming in on short notice against an established fighter in Dan Ige and is coming in as a slight underdog but the DFS sites priced him much lower than they should have in my opinion. This fight is gonna be a brawl and it will be extremely close, that being said, Tucker is my favourite value play of the slate. After seeing his submission arsenal on display earlier in his UFC career and the dismantling of Billy Quarantillo, a formidable fighter in his own right, last December, I see Tucker as a rising star while Ige is coming off a loss to Calvin Kattar following to questionable split decision wins. This fight will be one to watch!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Gavin Tucker (+125) (DK 7600) (FD $13). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Charles Jourdain (-255) (DK 9100) (FD $19) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+210) (DK 7100) (FD $11).

The UFC seems keen on getting this Rojo kid involved in the action as he was supposed to fight last month in UFC Vegas 20 against Raoni Barcelos but Barcelos had to withdraw due to COVID-19 related concerns. Now the UFC has matched him up against an established fighter in Charles Jourdain who now has four UFC fights under his belt. Rojo is definitely a GPP option if you need the salary saver but he hasn’t beaten any top competition to make me believe that he is ready for a challenge like Jourdain. I’ll be keeping a close eye on this fight as well, could end up being a closer than some expect.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Jourdain (-255) (DK 9100) (FD $19) SECOND ROUND TKO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Nasrat Haqparast (-425) (DK 9400) (FD $21) vs. Rafa Garcia (+320) (DK 7100) (FD $8).

Here we have another UFC debutant against an established UFC vet, and a pretty scary one at that, although Haqparast was not going to beat Arman Tsarukyan in his last matchup, he is in a much more favorable spot for this fight. Despite his opponent (Garcia) being undefeated, I don’t see any of those undefeated fights coming against impressive UFC talent like Haqparast. There are levels to this game and the jump to the UFC is big, even bigger when you’re going up against the likes of Haqparast. Garcia does have an active guard and will grab onto any body part you give him but as long as Haqparast imposes his bigger frame and more dominant skillset earlier on, I think this fight will end quickly

MY UFC DFS PICK: Nasrat Haqparast (-425) (DK 9400) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Leon Edwards -265 (DK 9000) (FD $22)

Jonathan Martinez -300 (DK 9300) (FD $21)

Misha Cirkunov -130 (DK 8300) (FD $17) (opponent went overweight by half a pound)

Manel Kape (GPP) -130 (DK 8700) (FD $18) (Matheus Nicolau works too)

Rani Yahya -300 (DK 9200) (FD $20) (a little pricey, but can get a first-round sub)

Darren Stewart -185 (DK 8900) (FD $19)

Matthew Semelsberger (GPP) -120 (DK 8400) (FD $16) (Jason Witt works too)

Angela Hill -400 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (Not great DFS Value but should get the win)

Cortney Casey +120 (DK 7700) (FD $13) (DO NOT TOUCH)

Gloria de Paula -190 (DK 8800) (FD $19) (PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC 259 IS HERE

BLACHOWICZ vs ADESANYA

Here we go. This is the slate I have been waiting for, as a fan and as a bettor. It’s not controversial to say a few cards we have seen this year have not been the best, last week included. However, this card makes up for ALL OF IT! We have a crazy 15 fight card this Saturday with THREE title fights and FIVE fighters putting their undefeated records on the line and we will be going through ALL OF IT! So buckle up and get ready for the 3/6 UFC 259 MEGA ARTICLE.

Exposure to the main event IS mandatory, it’ll be hard to win without exposure on this fight due to the high output. The Main Event is a five-round fight. As well as the two co-mains, we will break each of them down but I definitely recommend trying to fit two fighters from the three five-round fights in your lines. My Main Event target is a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my FULL SLATE BREAKDOWN for DFS and Sports betting in UFC 259, Blachowicz v Adesanya.

FIGHT 1

Trevin Jones (+175) (DK 7100) (FD $8) vs. Mario Bautista (-225) (DK 9100) (FD $20).

Let’s begin with the opener! Here we have two roster fighters seeking to establish themselves in the organization, and the bookies seem to have chosen their fighter in this one. It’s hard to argue with them on this one. Trevin Jones did shock the bookies in his last fight, where he got a flash knockout against Timur Valiev in the second round after being dominated in the first. Jones definitely deserves props for not getting knocked out in that fight, and it will be hard for Bautista to KO him. That being said, Bautista should win this. He has submission threat as well as KO power, with his only loss being a respectable one against Cory Sandhagen on short notice, and he already holds a PoTN and a FoTN performance under his belt. In contrast, Jones has a much less impressive record with a lot of fights going to the judges’ scorecards. Bautista is not my favourite DFS play at his price, but he should win.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Mario Bautista (-225) (DK 9100) (FD $20). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

FIGHT 2

Uros Medic (-175) (DK 8900) (FD $19) vs. Aalon Cruz (+145) (DK 7300) (FD $10).

Just like that, we’ve arrived at the first undefeated fighter we will cover in this article. With Medic entering his first UFC fight after an impressive showing at the Dana White Contender Series to move up to 6-0-0 and earn a UFC contract, he will face off against fellow Contender series alum Aalon Cruz who, despite having a UFC fight under his belt, has yet to earn a win in the organization, losing to the recently released Spike Carlyle. Medic has quick hands and packs a lot of power, I can see him ending this one early, and I will definitely be locking him into some lines for Saturday night.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Uros Medic (-175) (DK 8900) (FD $19). SECOND-ROUND TKO (possible FIRST-ROUND TKO).

FIGHT 3

Livinha Souza (+160) (DK 7500) (FD $9) vs. Amanda Lemos (-190) (DK 8700) (FD $20).

Honestly, I don’t feel confident with either of these fighters. I definitely lean towards Souza as Lemos has that really ugly loss to Leslie Smith. As for Lemos, her losses came against respectable competition, and she has the more impressive record with stronger opponents. A lot of Lemos’ wins came against unrecognizable fighters on the regional scene. Not to mention Souza has been able to finish more fights in the past. Either way, neither fighter has a high enough output for me to trust them. For the most part, I will be fading this fight. There are better options on this card.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Livinha Souza (+160) (DK 7500) (FD $9). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

FIGHT 4

Sean Brady (-210) (DK 9300) (FD $20) vs. Jake Matthews (+175) (DK 6900) (FD $9).

Brady is honestly in an excellent spot here tonight. He has an undefeated record at 13-0-0 and will be going up against 17-4 Jake Matthews. In his last fight, Brady put Christian Aguilera to sleep with a nasty guillotine, while Matthews has won his last three by decision after coming in as a heavy favourite. Most of Matthews wins, and even some losses came when he was a heavy favourite. He won’t be Saturday night. I expect Matthews to simply get outworked in this one, Brady has an extremely high work rate and output, and he’ll really push Matthews to the edge, especially as the fight goes on. Not to mention that he can level change and transition the fight to the ground with ease, as he did against Ismail Naurdiev.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Brady (-210) (DK 9300) (FD $20). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

FIGHT 5

Carlos Ulberg (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $21) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+175) (DK 7200) (FD $8).

We’ve now reached our third undefeated fighter and our first representative of City Kickboxing in Auckland, New Zealand. Ulberg’s record may look deceiving. Despite being 3-0 in MMA, he is a kickboxer by trade and has amassed a 3-0 record in professional kickboxing as well. Nzechukwu has a professional record of 7-1 with an uninspiring loss against Paul Craig in his UFC debut and a win against former UFC fighter Darko Stosic which consisted of a flurry of punches in the first from Nzechukwu, followed by a bunch of takedown attempt from Stosic. It certainly was not the most impressive victory, as Stosic was able to take him down four times. Not to mention, the UFC really seems to like this Ulberg kid and thinks he’s marketable, so they’re giving him a test that he should pass for his first fight in the organization, after impressing with an early knockout in the Contender Series against a then 8-1 fighter. Both Nzechukwu and Ulberg are power punchers. I’d expect Ulberg to hold a positional advantage as he will be able to keep his desired distance with his kickboxing. Not to mention he trains with the current Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya. Trust me, training with the best helps hone your skills. Iron sharpens iron. I will be locking some shares of Ulberg in my lines.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Carlos Ulberg (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $21). FIRST-ROUND TKO.

FIGHT 6

Tim Elliott (-105) (DK 8200) (FD $15) vs. Jordan Espinosa (-125) (DK 8000) (FD $16).

The final fight in the early prelims will be between UFC mainstay Tim Elliott and Contender Series alum Jordan Espinosa. Espinosa has gone 2-3 in the UFC, getting choked out twice and only winning by decision against two fighters who have since been cut from the UFC, and that being said, I think Espinosa will be the next to go. They matched him up against Tim Elliott, and although Elliott’s record may look similar to Espinosa’s, Elliott’s record is extremely deceiving as his last three losses have come to absolute superstars in Royval, Askarov and the current Flyweight champion Figueiredo. Not to mention, Elliott has submitted UFC calibre opponents in the past and holds much more experience in the Octagon. From a technical perspective, Elliott has good defence but usually likes to take his fights to the ground where Espinosa generally seems lost. So although Espinosa has good takedown defence, if the fight gets to the ground, I’d feel really confident in Elliott. I won’t have a ton of either fighter, but I do like Elliott in this spot as a salary saver (especially on FanDuel).

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tim Elliott (-105) (DK 8200) (FD $15). SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

FIGHT 7

Kai Kara-France (-150) (DK 8500) (FD $17) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+120) (DK 7700) (FD $13).

Here we have the second representative from New Zealand’s City Kickboxing. Kara-France simply has a stronger resume than Bontorin and is a much higher volume striker. Against Royval, Kara-France simply got caught and that fight was extremely close until that point (submitting Kara-France is not as easy as Royval made it look). Whereas against top Flyweight contender Brandon Moreno, Kara-France put up a strong performance. Bontorin can finish fights and is at a desirable price as an underdog, but I am really comfortable locking in Kara-France as he seems to be the stronger and more polished fighter between the two.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Kai Kara-France (-150) (DK 8500) (FD $17). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

FIGHT 8

Joseph Benavidez (+105) (DK 7900) (FD $15) vs. Askar Askarov (-135) (DK 8300) (FD $16).

Here we have a really close fight where Askarov will be putting his undefeated record on the line against former four-time Flyweight contender Joe Benavidez. Although Benavidez showed a good account of himself in his first fight against Figueredo, in the second he simply did not and he will need to beat someone like Askarov to get back into the Flyweight title conversation. Askarov himself is seen as a perennial flyweight contender who does have a strong resume of opponents and has a lot of finishes outside the UFC mainly by choking his opponents. Askarov also had a strong fight against the current number one contender Brandon Moreno where they fought to a split decision draw. This fight is close as both fighters are extremely skillful, however, I will be favoring Askarov in this one as I don’t think we will be seeing the Benavidez of old after rewatching his second loss to Devy.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Askar Askarov (-135) (DK 8300) (FD $16). THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

FIGHT 9

Kyler Phillips (+120) (DK 7400) (FD $12) vs. Yadong Song (-145) (DK 8800) (FD $17).

I’m going to go right out of the gate and say that even though Yadong gets the win, I think Kyler will show a good account of himself and provide some DFS value, especially considering that he’s a really live dog. Phillips is a grappler who has solid stats to his name with a low Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM), and a high Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM). In just two UFC fights, Phillips has already secured two bonuses for FoTN and PoTN. Statistically, Song is a good fighter, but Phillips edges him out as a busier striker, a more accurate striker and a stronger wrestler. I can’t really turn down Phillips’ output and will be locking him into plenty of DFS lines at his price. Not to mention Yadong is fighting down a weight class as he’s a natural 145 lb fighter fighting at 135 while Phillips is a natural 135, so Yadong may have a rougher weight cut. Personally, I am really looking forward to this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Yadong Song (-145) (DK 8800) (FD $17). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION/ Phillips win).

FIGHT 10

Dominick Cruz (+115) (DK 8100) (FD $14) vs. Casey Kenney (-145) (DK 8100) (FD $17).

I am personally a huge Dominick Cruz fan and am happy to see him back in the Octagon. His only career losses came against the best of the best, and his loss to Cody Garbrandt was in part due to an injury sustained during training camp. I really do like him at his price, and I think he can definitely win this fight and throw his name back in the Bantamweight contender conversation. His opponent, Kenney, is a high-volume striker but tends to take his fights to decision, just like Cruz, but I think Cruz’s experience will help him in the later rounds. Either way, this is a very close fight, and I will have shares of both fighters while prioritizing Cruz in my lines.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Dominick Cruz (+115) (DK 8100) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

FIGHT 11

Thiago Santos (+135) (DK 7600) (FD $11) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-165) (DK 8600) (FD $19).

Here we have another close fight with throw fighters trying to cement their place as a top contender in the light heavyweight division. This is one of my favorite fights on the card, as I have followed both of these fighters for a while. Maretta Santos almost became the champion when he fought Jones, but after being sidelined for over a year with tears in his ACL, PCL, MCL, meniscus, and cracked tibia after the Jon Jones fight, he had a bad comeback performance against an aging Glover Texiera. On the other side of the fight, Rakic is enjoying a nice run of form in the UFC, going 5-1 with the only loss coming in a hard-fought split decision against Volkan Ozdemir. Both Rakic and Santos have extreme knockout power, which can end the fight at any moment, and both love to keep their fights on the feet, which makes this fight even more appealing to me as a UFC fan. This will be a fun one, folks, and I will have shares on both sides but will mainly prioritize Rakic.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Aleksandar Rakic (-165) (DK 8600) (FD $17). SECOND-ROUND TKO.

FIGHT 12

Islam Makachev (-345) (DK 9400) (FD $22) vs. Drew Dober (+260) (DK 6800) (FD $8).

I will try not to spend too much time here as the article will be long enough as is, but this fight is extremely clear as far as I am concerned. The Khabib protege Islam Makachev is far and away the better fighter and will win this fight. My concern is that the fight remains rather low volume and goes to a decision. It will be very difficult to afford a decision win at Makachev’s price given how many fights there are on the card. I will mainly fade this fight, but I may have some shares of Makachev just in case he makes quick work of Dober.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Islam Makachev (-345) (DK 9400) (FD $22). UNANIMOUS DECISION.

FIGHT 13 CHAMPIONSHIP

Petr Yan (-120) (DK 8400) (FD $18) vs. Aljamin Sterling (-110) (DK 7800) (FD $17).

Here we have the first and the most competitive of the three title fights on Saturday night. Yan is an accomplished and competitive striker, as was seen in his dominant victory against former champion Jose Aldo. Yan also trains at Tiger Muy Thai, one of the most prestigious MMA gyms globally, and that definitely counts in his favour. Aljamain Sterling is no slouch himself. Despite some unflattering losses in his record to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao, he has been given this title shot after a strong performance against the red hot Cory Sandhagen, who he disposed of in one round. Sterling is a BJJ Black Belt under Matt Serra. Hence, he has a strong Gracie-developed Jiu-Jitsu game, making for a very stylistically entertaining fight with the classic striker vs submission artist narrative. Both fighters will have strong chances of success in this one, and I will have shares of both of them in my lines, especially considering that this will be a five-round fight. I will most likely have 100% exposure to this fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Petr Yan (-120) (DK 8400) (FD $18). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible FOURTH-ROUND TKO).

FIGHT 14 CHAMPIONSHIP

Amanda Nunes (-1205) (DK 9600) (FD $23) vs. Megan Anderson (+750) (DK 6600) (FD $13).

This one is not close. Megan Anderson may garner some DFS attention as an underdog because it is a five-round fight, and in fighting, nothing is for certain, but this fight is about as close as it gets. Mandy is a generational talent and will handle Megan with ease. In my opinion, her striking is that advanced. That being said, Nunes is the most expensive fighter on the card and not my favorite given her price. I will have a few shares, but not many, as the extra salary is needed to properly build lines on a huge slate like this.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Amanda Nunes (-1205) (DK 9600) (FD $17). SECOND-ROUND TKO.

FIGHT 15 CHAMPIONSHIP

Jan Blachowicz (+195) (DK 7000) (FD $17) vs. Israel Adesanya (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $21).

Adesanya is my favorite fighter on the card, and I started my main builds with him in the lineup. He’s an undefeated, high-volume kickboxer from the aforementioned City Kickboxing gym. He is extremely technical uses his kicks effectively to maintain distance, especially with bigger guys, as we saw with Paulo Costa. I have a feeling Izzy will reuse his leg-kick strategy to hinder Blachowicz’s mobility early in the fight, then slowly pick him apart as the fight progresses. Adesanya will need to respect Blachowicz’s power. Still, I am confident that Izzy will get the job done on Saturday night and become the fifth person in UFC history to hold belts in two separate divisions simultaneously. Blachowicz is used to the underdog role as in his last 9 UFC fights; he has been the underdog in all but one fight and has gone 8-1 over that stretch, which I find very impressive given that he started his UFC career with a 2-4 run. That being said, I will have some Blachowicz as a hedge (the odds are a little extreme, in my opinion), but as I mentioned, I am heavily on Izzy in this spot.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Israel Adesanya (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $21). THIRD-ROUND TKO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fifteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 20 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on my top targets and the fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat and be sure to check in after weigh-ins to see if there is any important news/updates. With that being said, GOOD LUCK, enjoy the card and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 20.

GANE VS ROZENSTRUIK

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 20 slate! So far my article plays are doing really well so let’s hope we can keep the train rolling! We have a nice card ahead of us with currently 10 scheduled fights to take place, a couple fights have been cancelled (Kuramagomedov v Olivera, Menifield v Knight) so be sure to avoid them in your lineups. The main event is again between two rising Heavyweights vying for title contention in Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Exposure to the main event IS NOT mandatory but is recommended. Although I don’t project this fight to be without fireworks, the heavyweight fights are really hit or miss in terms of DFS production, so I’d have some shares but I’m not against branching away from the Main Event. The late news has completely shaken up this article so the format will look a little different but the entire pool will still be listed in the article. There will be one top play followed by honorable mentions.

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top DFS and Sports betting pick for UFC Vegas 20, Gane v Rozenstruik.

MY UFC POUND-FOR-POUND LOCKED-IN TARGET:

Magomed Ankalaev (-370) (DK 9300) (FD $23) vs. Nikita Krylov (+290) (DK 6900) (FD $8).

Krylov is a good fighter but at the end of the day, he’s in for a rough time against Magomed Ankalaev. The high rising Dagestani prospect just finished demolishing Ion Cuetelaba for the second time in a row with his signature left hand. In order for Krylov to be competitive, he’ll have to surprise Ankalaev early but I suspect that Ankalaev will be able to neutralize any offence from Krylov with his top-level accuracy. Krylov is coming off an upset victory against Johnny Walker but Ankalaev is just in a different world compared to Krylov as the price suggests. Regardless, I began most of my builds with Ankalaev locked in. One thing is evidently clear, these guys don’t like to leave it to the judges, so I expect this fight to be finished before the third round.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev (-370) (DK 9300) (FD $23) FIRST-ROUND TKO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Ciryl Gane -275 (DK 9000) (FD $22) (Rozenstruik GPP)

Mayra Bueno Silva -150 (DK 8400) (FD $16)

Dustin Jacoby -175 (DK 8500) (FD $18) (Some Grishin GPP, value hurt after weigh-in)

Kevin Croom (GPP) +170 (DK 7400) (FD $10) TOP GPP PLAY

Ronnie Lawrence -163 (DK 8600) (FD $18) (Vincent Cachero GPP)

Pedro Munhoz (GPP) +125 (DK 7900) (FD $15) (Jimmie Rivera works too)

Thiago Moises (GPP) +187 (DK 7500) (FD $11) (Hernandez works too)

Sabina Mazo -210 (DK 8900) (FD $19)

Angela Hill +150 (DK 9200) (FD $21) (Not great DFS Value but should get the win)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

UFC Vegas 19.

BLAYDES vs LEWIS

We’re back with another UFC event in Vegas this year! In this article, we will break down Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 19 slate! So far my article plays are doing well so let’s hope we can keep the train rolling! We have a nice card ahead of us with currently 14 scheduled fights to take place. The main event is between to rising Heavyweights vying for title contention in Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis.

Exposure to the main event IS NOT mandatory. Even though the Main Event is a five-round fight Blaydes is known for his takedowns and I don’t see this being a high-volume main event. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

We will have separate value plays for each site since both sites have been slow on adding different fights to the slate.

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 19, Blaydes v Lewis.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Aleksei Oleinik (+170) (DK 7600) (FD $11) vs. Chris Daukaus (-200) (DK 8600) (FD $20).

I get why Daukaus is the favourite but I couldn’t disagree more. When watching Daukaus’ tape, I couldn’t see a strong takedown defence or ground game. He’ll have a strong competitor in Aleksei Oleinik, who despite the fact that he’s ageing, is still a solid option as an underdog. Oleinik can take a punch and if he gets a hold of Daukaus on the ground before Daukaus gets a strong punch in, this will be a short fight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Aleksei Oleinik (+170) (DK 7600) (FD $11). FIRST OR SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Casey O’Neill (-150) (DK 8500) (FD $18) vs. Shana Dobson (+12) (DK 7700) (FD $13).

This fight shouldn’t have the highest output on the card but it’s pretty clear to me who is the favourite here. The bookies were a bit timider this time when creating the line against Shana Dobson after she blasted them as a +950 Underdog. However, O’Neill is an undefeated fighter who trains at one of the premier Muy Thai gyms in the entire world and at the end of the day, Shana is still a 4-4 fighter with some really uninspiring losses on her record. Let’s hope O’Neill doesn’t make the same mistake that Agapova did, never underestimate your opponent!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Casey O’Neill (-150) (DK 8500) (FD $18) UNANIMOUS.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Sergey Spivak (-250) (DK 9100) (FD $21) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+200) (DK 7100) (FD $8).

Here we have an interesting heavyweight matchup and although I usually wouldn’t recommend heavyweight fights for DFS, this is one of the two heavyweight fights on the card that are a little different. If you want to use Top Aspinall thats also an excellent option but for this section I’ve decided to go with Spivac. He is an established UFC fighter, whos shown that he can win as a striker and a submission artist. On the other hand, Jared Vanderaa is an unproven fighter who made his last appearance in the Contender Series, and I watched it live and rewatched for this article. It was very very unimpressive and he was losing the fight until his flash knockout, Spivac wont make the same mistakes that Hunsucker did and think this fight’s result is a forgone conclusion.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Sergey Spivak (-250) (DK 9100) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

UFC HONORABLE MENTION:

(In order of preference)

Tom Aspinall -250 (DK 9200) (FD $22)

Nate Landwehr -125 (DK 8100) (FD $16) (HUGE VALUE TOO)

Ketlen Vieira -275 (DK 9300) (FD $22)

Charles Rosa -188 (DK 8800) (FD $20)

Curtis Blaydes -400 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (Derrick Lewis GPP)

Chas Skelly (GPP) -225 (DK 7400) (FD $9)

Phil Hawes -250 (DK 8200) (FD $17) (Nassourdine Imavov works but I’m on Hawes)

Danny Chavez -138 (DK 8400) (FD $17)

Luis Pena (GPP) +150 (DK 7200) (FD $13)

John Castaneda -125 (DK 8300) (FD $16)

Drako Rodriguez -188 (DK 9000) (FD $19) (Aiemann Zahabi GPP)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 20 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset as UFC fighters are the elite of the elite. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.

I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!