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Trey Mancini

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 08/06

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000!

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Trey Mancini vs. Ryan Yarbrough

The first two guys I have listed tonight are playing in the same game. As someone that lives in Baltimore I’ve been to enough games in Camden Yards to know that when the weather is hot the ball flies out of the yard, especially to left field.

I’m starting with Mancini here because he gets a great match up vs. a pitcher that’s been struggling of late. Over the last month Yarbrough has given up 4 homers in just 22 innings for work. During that same stretch he has a 49% fly ball rate. A fly ball pitcher in Camden is not what you want to be.

On the year Mancini has a .279 ISO and .386 wOBA vs. lefties. What a comeback for him this year! Yarbrough’s struggles come against righties. On the year he’s given up a .198 ISO and .314 wOBA. Mancini is going to get a heavy dose of cutters tonight’s. He has a .735 slugging % and .442 wOBA against cutters this year and if we look back over his career, this is a trend. Confidence Level – High!

Randy Arozarena vs. John Means

Switching dugouts, I’m looking to Randy Arozarena for a long ball. Arozarena is hot, with 3 straight multi-hit games. I like to target batters in this contest that are swing a hot bat. So we can check that box off right from the start.

He also matches up very well with Means. He has great numbers vs. Means and a lot of has to do with Means pitch mix. Means will throw in a large amount of fastballs with some change ups mixed in. Arozarena is a crusher of fastballs this year with a .586 slugging %, a .415 wOBA, and 61% hard hit rate.

Means has given up 4 homers in his 3 outings since returning from injury. Look for number 5 to come off the bat from Arozarena. Confidence Level – High

Joey Votto vs. JT Brubaker

Joey Votto is no longer hitting a home run every game, but he’s still swinging an extremely hot bat. Since July 21 he has only 1 game without a hit and 10 homers.

Tonight he gets to take on a pitcher in Brubaker who is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace with 5 in his last 18 innings of work. Brubaker has been giving up a ton of hard contact with a 48% hard hit rate over the past month.

While he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, 30% of the fly balls he does give up end up in a fan’s glove. Just like Camden, when it’s warm in Great American Ballpark the ball has a little extra giddy up to it off the bat. With it supposed to be in the mid 80’s at first pitch, the weather is primed for some long balls. Confidence Level – Medium/High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight I’m picking on both pitchers and hitting environment. I’ve selected 3 guys facing pitchers that are prone to giving up homers, but also playing in ball parks that making home runs a little bit easier. If you want to go a different route, Jesse Winker on the Reds also is in a good spot for the Reds. In the Camden Yards game, I can also see Nelson Cruz or Ryan Mountcastle going yard.

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!

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3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Sox Appeal

5 years ago

written by

One more Sunday, and the 2019 MLB regular season is over. The 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks will swing for the fences today, knowing that chances to make the long green are running out.

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9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Tom Murphy, SEA at BAL

DK ($4,200), FD ($3,200)

Murphy’s breakout season has been built on the backs of woeful lefties, whom he has a .348/.402/.714 slash line against with 11 of his 18 homers coming against them. Having a moderate-priced catcher with a 47.8% fly ball rate should pay dividends in Camden Yards. Orioles rookie John Means gets the start and has somehow managed to post a 3.65 ERA despite a 50.6% fly ball rate. Bet on Murphy putting a boost to Means’ 9.7% HR/FB rate.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Ryan Braun, MIL at PIT

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,200)

With six hits in his last three games, Braun is doing his part to keep the Brewers’ postseason hopes alive. Five of his last eight hits have been for extra bases, which has shot his OPS to 1.027 over the last week. His power numbers are similar to his 2018 production, but Braun’s .319 BABIP is 45 points higher, resulting in his career-high 45.3% hard contact rate having more impact.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at DET

DK ($4,400), FD ($3,800)

Moncada has spent much of 2019 torturing Tigers pitching. He’s hit .357/.404/.714 with four homers and 11 RBI off Detroit hurlers and comes into today with a .474/.492/754 slash line over the past two weeks. Moncada’s .403 BABIP hides the sins of a 7.6% walk rate and 27.5% strikeout rate. His line drive rate of 23.7% and improved ability to hit to all fields makes him a great play in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,000)

Despite hitting .244 against Kansas City pitching this season, Sano has made the Royals hurt when he does reach base. Six of his 10 hits off KC hurlers have been for extra bases, including four homers. Sano has a 1.019 OPS this month, driven mainly by a .394 OBP that should scare the hell out of all of us if this carries into 2020. To what should be shocking to no one, Sano manages soft contact just 9.3% of the time, so you’re going to be cheated when using him today.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Carlos Correa, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,200), FD ($3,800)

Ponder the fact that Correa has 21 homers and 59 RBI in just 75 games. Prorate those numbers, and you’d be talking about a potential AL MVP candidate. He’s a monster at Minute Maid Park, sporting a 1.034 OPS with 11 of his 21 homers coming at home. His .282 Isolated Power and a 17-point improvement in BABIP only makes you wonder what he could have done had he stayed healthy this season. After a 28.8% hard contact rate in 2019, Correa comes into today with a 44.7% rate. Can’t make up for lost time, so indulge in Correa’s final home game of the regular season.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($4,100), FD ($4,100)

He’s had four multi-hit games in his past six starts, continuing a blistering September that has seen Jimenez hit .358 with seven homers and 21 RBI. Jimenez has been surprisingly more effective outside of hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, producing an .875 OPS compared to .750 at home. His modest 33.6% fly ball rate is countered by a 27.1% HR/FB rate, all the more reason Tigers ace Matthew Boyd had better be on notice.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Howie Kendrick, WAS at MIA

DK ($5,200), FD ($2,800)

He. Won’t. Stop. Hitting. Kendrick is 10-for-17 (.588) during a September run where he’s swinging it at a .432/.468/.659 clip. Unlike most of the aforementioned players in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks, Kendrick isn’t a serious threat to homer, but he will continue spraying the ball all over the field. He’s making hard contact at a 45.8% rate, which means a lot of his grounders (48.9%) are quickly finding their way past outfielders.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Trey Mancini, BAL vs. SEA

DK ($4,100), FD ($5,100)

Mancini has a nine-game hitting streak and has scored at least one run in seven of his past 10 games. What has made his season interesting is that for a hitter whose hard contact rate is just about league-average (36.9%) who also doesn’t put the ball in the air as much as you’d think (31.7%), he’s pounding the daylights out of the ball. Mancini’s hitting more line drives (21.8%), but the hidden number just might be his .319 BABIP, which is nearly on par to his 2017 coming out party.

9/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/22 Hitting Stack of the Day: Houston Astros: As a team, the Astros hit .282/.360/.512 at Minute Maid Park, so why not load up one last time this season? Yordan Alvarez ($4,300 FD) and Alex Bregman ($5,400 DK) are anchors that can hold on to Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD) and Michael Brantley ($4,500 FD). It will cost to go all-in with an Astros stack, so be prepared to find a punt at pitcher.

9/22 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Minnesota Twins: Start with Sano and build from there with Max Kepler ($4,700 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,500 FD) and Eddie Rosario ($4,900 FD). Make sure to add Ehire Adrianza ($3,400 FD) if the OBP machine is in the lineup.

9/22 Hitting Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: Moncada and Jimenez are the building blocks. Add Jose Abreu ($3,700 FD) to corner the market on the heart of the Chicago order. Yolmer Sanchez ($2,500 FD) is an interesting add considering he has five hits in 11 at-bats against Boyd.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Lambert to the Slaughter

5 years ago

written by

All but one game of today’s 15-game slate is under the lights, giving the 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks a buffet table of offense and a handful of stacks. With a somewhat light host of available money pitchers, load up on offense on the road to the long green.

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9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Roberto Perez, CLE vs. PHI

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,700)

Perez is smashing hurlers to the tune of .395/.447/.558 this month with a pair of homers and 12 RBI. His numbers haven’t changed much compared to last season…that is, with the notable exception of his Isolated Power, which sits at .216 after a woeful .095 last season. Perez has also boosted his BABIP to .286, a 29-point jump from 2018. Phillies hurler Drew Smyly has a 2.64 HR/9 rate that may suggest Perez being a part of an Indians stack.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Trey Mancini, BAL vs. SEA

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,200)

There’s also OF eligibility with Mancini, who might be the hottest hitter in the game entering today’s play. He’s in the midst of a 15-for-32 (.469) run that includes four homers and 16 RBI over the past week. Mancini has a modest 31.8% fly ball rate, but counters that with a 24.3% HR/FB rate. A look at his numbers might suggest he’s scalding the dickens out of the ball, but Mancini’s hard contact rate (37.3%) is just above average. Facing the fading shell of Felix Hernandez should allow Mancini to continue his beatdown of AL pitching.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at DET

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,800)

Moncada has a .986 OPS in 34 at-bats against Tigers pitching this season with three homers among his 11 hits. He’ll also have 3B eligibility, making him a solid 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks candidate. The power (one homer) isn’t as prolific as it was earlier in the season, but his overall .228 Isolated Power is a mild indication of what’s capable of down the road. The number of soft hits has reduced, with harder contact rate (39.5%) and an uptick in line drives makes him a good play in a potential stack lineup against 1-11 Tigers hurler Jordan Zimmermann.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,600)

He’s something of a value at FanDuel as he gets a plumb matchup against Eric Skoglund, he of the 8.36 ERA in 14 innings. Sano has homered four times in his last seven games, driving in 10. A .265 batting average this month has been modest, but Sano has a .991 OPS driven in part by a surprising .379 OBP. It was once said Sano could hit 50 homers with a better OBP, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Although he fans 36% of the time, his 12.7% walk rate has bolstered his production. Well, that, and the 51.7% hard contact rate.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD vs. COL

DK ($3,400), FD ($4,300)

It looks like Seager is going into the postseason with momentum, having hit .405 with five ribbies in the past week. Like the rest of the Dodgers, Seager will be giddy at the prospects of hitting against Rockies rookie pitcher Peter Lambert, who has a composite .333/.402/.597 slash against left-handed hitters and has allowed a combined 17 homers in 86.1 innings. It’s at this point where secondary stats are unnecessary. You should know what to do next.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Tucker, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,000), FD ($2,800)

Look for Tucker’s name to frequent the Astros’ lineup now that they’ve clinched a postseason berth. He’s striking out at a 26.1% rate, but the power he lacked in his brief time in the bigs last season has shown up, evidenced by a .205 Isolated Power rate. Tucker’s fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both 46.9%; you could look at every other player in the majors and probably won’t get that odd pairing again.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Matt Beaty, LAD vs. COL

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,700)

Beaty should be in the lineup, having hit .283 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI in 46 at-bats against Rockies pitching this season. Beaty has mauled righties with an .881 OPS and also fares better at home, where his OPS sits at .865. September hasn’t been too productive for Beaty (.194 BA, .654 OPS), yet he’s still online to make the postseason roster. He’ll continue to make hard contact (41.7%) at an above-average level, while Beaty’s 13.2% HR/FB rate makes the most of a limited fly ball rate (33%).

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($4,300), FD ($4,000)

A 1.093 OPS with six homers and 17 RBI this month makes us feel like Jimenez is sending a warning shot toward opposing pitchers in 2020. The most encouraging number is a .403 OBP. My goodness, if Jimenez is learning plate discipline, then it’s time to be afraid. He’s not going to be in this range of salary a year from now, so I’d enjoy the rising hard contact rate (37.8%) and a 48.6% ground ball rate that I’d bet will closer to 40% next September. Like his teammate Yoan Moncada, feasting off Jordan Zimmermann makes Jimenez a good play.

9/20 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/20 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: Skgolund will see a stack of righties from Minnesota, including the aforementioned Sano. Jonathan Schoop ($2,700 FanDuel) and Ehire Adrianza ($2,000 FD) are values if either/or is in the lineup. I’d look strongly at Mitch Garver ($5,500 DraftKings), and Nelson Cruz ($5,300 DK) as well.

9/20 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Chicago White Sox: Jimenez and Moncada would lead the way. Zach Collins ($2,400 FD) is an interesting value play due to his power. Jose Abreu ($4,500 DK) is a must, as he has two career homers off of Zimmermann.

9/20 Hitting Stack to Consider: Los Angeles Dodgers: Beaty and Seager are part of a group that includes Joc Pederson ($4,200 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4,500 FD), Gavin Lux ($3,000 FD) and Will Smith ($2,600 FD) who are good options to tee off on Lambert.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/19 MLB DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/19 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Toronto Blue Jays

Here is a Tuesday snippet from our Slack Channel, that is accessible to all Premium Gold members. This is one of the many winners that are shown throughout the channel. The Toronto Blue Jays faced the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards and there was not much hope for the pitching staff of either team. As shown above, the Blue Jays won 11-10 behind a six-run ninth inning. Randal Grichuk went 1-for-5 with a grand slam and Teoscar Hernandez went 1-for-6 with a three-run home run.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The young Blue Jays hitters are showing that they could possibly be as good as their fathers: 11 runs, 15 hits, nine walks, and reaching twice via an error. Overcoming a 7-1 deficit after five innings, the Blue Jays stayed on the pedal and dominated the Orioles bullpen. Expect the Blue Jays to finish the year strong, attempting to play spoiler along the way and gain experience going into the 2020 season.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Aaron Civale

As Brandon C. Williams stated in the DFS Pitching Picks, Aaron Civale had a great day on the hill against the Detroit Tigers. He picked up a no-decision while going 7.2 innings and allowing a run on four hits with a walk and four strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Don’t look now but Civale has a 1.82 ERA through 54.1 innings thus far in his rookie campaign. He is looking like if the Indians make an ALDS appearance, Civale has an argument to be near the top of the starting rotation. Expect similar outings like this one for the final couple of starts for Civale to end the regular season.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Trey Mancini

Jason chose as a top catcher/first baseman slot on the MLB Cheatsheet, also available for all premium members, Trey Mancini had a solid day at the plate against the Toronto Blue Jays. Mancini went 2-for-5 with a double, a run scored and three RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Baltimore Orioles do not have many reasons for people to pay attention (unless you are winning $1,500 on their demise) but Trey Mancini has been outstanding for them. He is now up to 91 RBI on a team that has scored 661 runs all season. Mancini might be stuck in a rebuild as he is about to enter arbitration this offseason, but expect him to get very close, if not surpass 100 RBI by the end of the year.

9/19 MLB DFS Winner: Yuli Gurriel

Another solid choice by Jason, this time a value catcher/first baseman, Yuli Gurriel had a great value for DFS players that chose him in their lineup. Gurriel went up against the Texas Rangers and finished 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Gurriel is now up to 30 home runs and an OPS of .902 on the season. Besides the offense, the ability to play both corner infield spots could play a huge factor with keeping him in the lineup while managing rest now that they clinched the AL West. Expect Gurriel to be a major force in the Astros lineup for their final few games of the season and beyond.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Dial O for Offense

5 years ago

written by

The 9/18 Hitting Picks — at least the main slate — is hampered by the fact that five of the 15 games are daytime starts. Rather than be completely single-minded, we’ll give a nudge or two to the daytime folk.

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9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Omar Navarez, SEA at PIT

DK ($4,200), FD ($2,800)

Navarez hit his 22nd homer of the season in Tuesday’s shutout win over the Pirates, continuing a run that has seen the lefty-swinging backstop hit .391 with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored over the past week. His .861 OPS versus right-handers sets him up well against Pirates hurler Dario Agrazal, who has a 7.08 ERA since July 26. Agrazal has allowed 12 homers in just 62.1 innings.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Trey Mancini, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,900)

One of the few highlights of another dismal season in B-More, Mancini (who also has OF eligibility) has spent much of 2019 pounding Blue Jays pitching. Entering tonight’s game, Mancini has a .996 OPS with six homers and 19 RBI versus Toronto. His 8.9% walk rate has helped Mancini become more than just a masher. Mancini hits to all fields and sports a 25% HR/FB rate despite a surprisingly low 31.6% fly ball rate.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,400)

He’s put the hammer down this month. Albies has a 1.029 OPS in September with four homers, 10 RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s also recorded five multi-hit games over his last nine starts along with building upon an already impressive 42.4% hard contact rate. Like Mancini with the Blue Jays, Albies has thrived versus Phillies pitching, going .343/.395/.600 (.995 OPS), earning him the same vulgar looks Philly fans have given to the likes of other enemies like Joe Carter, Terrell Owens and Santa Claus.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at CWS

DK ($5,000), FD ($3,600)

Sano’s 486-foot moonshot on Tuesday was his third blast in his last four games since the Twins returned to American League play. After missing four straight games, Sano will continue to rake, as he has recorded four hits and a .955 OPS in 10 at-bats against Ivan Nova, who gets the nod tonight against the White Sox. A cool stat about Sano: he has a .708 slugging percentage in his last 58 at-bats against curveball specialists like Nova. Hmmm…

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Adalberto Mondesi, KC at OAK

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,600)

Wait, wasn’t he not supposed to run? Mondesi didn’t get the memo, having recorded a pair of stolen bases over the past week. After a sluggish start to his return from the DL, Mondesi has stolen eight bases this month. He’s also recorded six hits over his last three games, making him an exception to the day’s main slate rule. Mondesi has a good 38.1% hard contact rate and remains a pull-centric hitter (45.9% rate). Even with missing a significant portion of the season, Mondesi will get at least 40 steals. Imagine how many more he could tally if he improved his 4% walk rate and 29.1% strikeout rate.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Schwarber, CHI vs. CIN

DK ($4,400), FD ($3,600)

In his deepest thoughts, Schwarber must be thinking, “this is what plate discipline feels like!” He’s put together a .369 OBP this month to go along with a 1.064 OPS. Schwarber has banged out five homers, 17 RBI and 13 runs scored. Whether he can bottle that up for traditional Fantasy isn’t the issue here. What is is that Schwarber is 4-for-10 against Reds starter Tyler Mahle with a homer and an 1.155 OPS.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at MIN

DK ($4,000), FD ($3,900)

With a pair of three-hit games over the past three, Jimenez has tacked on 12 points to his batting average, putting him at .261. While he has scuffled against Twins pitching, Jimenez does have three homers against them and comes into tonight having hit .433 with three homers and eight RBI over the past week. Jimenez has boosted his Isolated Power to .234 along with raising his hard contact rate to 37.8%.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Lewis, SEA at PIT

DK ($3,800), FD ($3,500)

The rookie’s 34.4% strikeout rate looks like some grotesque scene from the Saw movie franchise, but — like Jigsaw — Lewis is alive. It certainly helps to have a .467 Isolated Power and making the most of a 55% medium contact rate. There’s the prospect of a mild Mariners stack that begins with Lewis and Navarez.

9/11 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/18 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: The White Sox plan to use Ivan Nova in the opener role. That means the Twins can tee off on a Chicago bullpen that has allowed 75 homers. Nelson Cruz ($3,200 FD) has two homers and an 1.134 OPS against Nova. Mitch Garver ($3,100 FD) could also be fit into a stack that would include the aforementioned Sano.

9/18 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Rangers starter Kolby Allard has a 2.28 ERA on the road. The Astros are expensive, as usual, but building with Yordan Alvarez ($5,600 DK) and Yuli Gurriel ($4.400 DK) would be helped with bargain bats Jake Marisnick ($3,700 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3,500) should both find their way into the lineup.

9/18 Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Cubs lefty Jon Lester has allowed 15 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Eugenio Suarez ($3,900 FD) has five career homers off Lester. Aristides Aquino ($3,400 FD) snapped out of a funk by hitting his 16th homer on Tuesday, Light-hitting Jose Peraza ($2,000 FD) has also tagged Lester well, having hit .353 against him 34 career at-bats.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/5 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Sporting Sox and Dinger Locks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez

Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.

Minnesota Twins at Nathan Eovaldi

The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).

9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)

Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)

9/5 DFS Hitting Catcher

Jason Castro, MIN at BOS UPDATE: Castro is not in the starting lineup

PIVOT: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)

With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.

9/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Yuri Gurriel, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD ($3,600)

Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.

9/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?

9/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD($4,100)

Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.

9/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,100)

We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Mookie Betts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,200)

Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).

Nicholas Castellanos, CHI at MIL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,500)

Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.

Sam Travis, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($3,300) FD (1B $2,800)

The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.

Additional options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)

1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)

2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)

OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/4 MLB DFS Winners

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

A 16-game slate yesterday with a few highlights from our team on the 8/4 MLB DFS Report.

Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz was on fire last night at the plate, going 3-for-4 with three homers, five RBI, three runs. He was highlighted by David Jones on the MLB DFS Hitting Picks as the Outfield Stud pick of the day.

Outlook: He has the most HR in the 2010s. Cruz still has the potential to hit 45 HR this season and is leading the Twins with their unreal production at the plate.

Jason Kipnis

Our founder Jason Mezrahi chose Kipnis as his value second baseman on his MLB Cheatsheet. Kipnis went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run from the seven spot in the order.

Outlook: Batting .316 in his last 15 games, Kipnis is swinging a hot stick. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit for much power and the guys ahead of him in the lineup are not hitting, giving him no one to drive in.

Trey Mancini

Jason also had Mancini on his Cheatsheet, and it paid off for DFS players. He went 1-for-4 with a home run, four RBI and a run. His power numbers are going up recently, as he has seven in the last 15 games.

Outlook: He has had some pop as of late but avoid him as Sean Reid-Foley only allows about one home run every nine innings. Find someone with a higher potential on the 8/4 MLB DFS slate.

If you already have a free registered membership, we suggest upgrading to our Premium Gold monthly plan for regular access to the MLB DFS Cheat Sheet.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS MLB Pitching and Prop Picks for July 20

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

There is a wide variety of DFS MLB arms to choose from today, from aces to really good punts. On a good-sized main-slate of games, there are many places to look for pitching.

DFS MLB Upper-Tier Arms

Luis Castillo, Cardinals at Reds ($10,500 FD, $11,200 DK): Castillo is the most expensive DFS MLB pitcher on the DK slate and the second most on FD. He is in a good spot but comes with risk. This will make him a GPP-only choice for me tonight. The risk is how the ballpark plays in hot weather. It lived up to its moniker of the “Great American Smallpark” last night for sure! That being said, Castillo is in the midst of a terrific year and is in a smash spot. He is starting against a team that really struggles against above-average right-handed pitchers.

Clayton Kershaw, Marlins at Dodgers ($10,800 FD, $11,000 DK): Kershaw is the reverse of Castillo in terms of DFS MLB pricing on the two sites. The Dodgers lefty ace is an excellent choice for cash games today. We saw what good pitching did to the Marlins last night and we can expect more of the same tonight. He has a 2.76 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Marlins.

DFS MLB Middle-Tier Arms

Zack Greinke, Brewers at Diamondbacks ($9,000 FD, $10,000 DK): Greinke is coming off one of his roughest outings of the year against the Cardinals. Accordingly, he has been priced down a bit for DFS MLB pitchers, especially on FD. He is cash-game worthy on both sites, the low FD price tells me that FD is daring you to use him over Kershaw. Before the last start (where he actually salvaged a respectable 21 FD fantasy points), he was cruising on the season. His WHIP remains below 1.00 even after that start and today’s matchup, which is not perfect, can be navigated. .

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Jeff Samardzija, Mets at Giants ($7,600 FD, $9,100 DK): The former Notre Dame wide receiver has pitched really well recently. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a DFS MLB pitcher. He gets a struggling offense in an extreme pitcher’s park. On DK, he is on the three game slate while on FD he is on the all-day slate. Samardzija looks to keep an excellent three start stretch going. Over those three starts, he has lowered his season ERA from 4.52 to 3.93 by having a 1.66 ERA with 17 strikeouts and only three walks.

DFS MLB Bargain Basement Arm

Jakob Junis, Royals at Indians ($6,400 FD, $7,900 DK): After two straight strong outings, both seven-inning starts, Junis is suddenly worthy of DFS MLB consideration. On Monday, Junis beat the White Sox, 5-2, giving up only five hits and one run while striking out a career-high 10.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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The goal is at least one HR from this trio or two for double your money. With the weather still very hot and humid in Baltimore, look for the ball to carry well and for the Red Sox to get back into the win column at Fenway South.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Hitting and Stacks for 6/15: Baltimore Bashing

Alisia Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Alisia Gustafson

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First Base

Trey Mancini, Bos vs. Bal

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,600)

I can see Mancini homering tonight, whether it’s against Sale or at the end of the game after the Red Sox are up by 10. Mancini homered last night and comes into this game batting .318 over his last seven games and .333 with four homers in the month of June. I am not saying Baltimore will be on the bases a lot, i’m just saying if anyone can turn into one tonight, it’s Mancini, and at a price of 4,600 on FanDuel, he should be very low owned. Also, Mancini owns a .364 BA in 23 at-bats against Sale.

Second Base

Brock Holt, Bos at Bal

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,500)

Holt was the man last night, including the second inning homer, every at-bat was beautiful against the struggling Orioles bullpen. If Holt makes the lineup tonight, which I believe he will, count on some solid production against Dylan Bundy. Holt owns a .643 BA against Bundy in 16 at-bats. This includes three doubles and one home run. Holt is my play of the day at such reasonable pricing. Don’t count on getting him at low ownership, though.

Third Base

Todd Frazier, Nym vs. Stl

DK ($4,200) FD ($2,800)

Frazier has two prior homers against opposing pitcher Micheal Wacha. He has had his problems this season with a 5.62 ERA but has pitched great in the month of June (two games played/one start) with no runs allowed over 8.1 innings pitched. Over this span, Wacha has allowed a .241 opposing BA. But this is what I like to call regression day. Wacha could very well revert to his normal self against a Mets team that has the potential to really do some damage. If stacking this team, only stack right-handed batters. Wacha has reverse splits and over a three-year average those reverse splits stay pretty consistent. He’s allowed a .280 BA with 26 homers to opposing righties, while only allowing a .248 BA to opposing lefties with 15 homers. The Mets are favored at -145 with an 8.5 under/over.

Shortstop

Trea Turner, Ari @ Wsh **Early**

DK ($5,400) FD ($4,200)

I love all of the Washington bats today as they set to face Tyler Clarke. He has a 5.26 ERA and a 5.66 road ERA. Clarke is allowing big numbers to opposing righties, as they’re hitting .304 against him with two homers in 46 at-bats. Clarke has really struggled lately, allowing a 7.02 ERA over his last four starts. Trea Turner will lead things off and should benefit off runs, RBI, and stolen bases as well as the potential long ball. This is my early slate upside play and I am very confident in a solid floor as well.

Outfield

Bryce Harper, Atl vs. Phi

DK ($4,200) FD ($4,000)

Bryce Harper owns a .333 BA in 13 at-bats against Sean Newcomb. Harper has been a little off, as he’s only batting .255 so far in the month of June and his long ball numbers are not quite there yet. Over his last seven games, Harper is only batting .238 with one home run. Harper donged last night, which could be the turnaround marker. His price is solid with all things considered. This is a GPP lock for me and I hope it goes low-owned because we all know what Harper is capable of when he’s hot.

Mookie Betts, Bos at Bal

DK ($5,800) FD ($5,100)

Mookie sat last night and should be well rested tonight as the Red Sox are expected to demolish the Baltimore Orioles again. Baltimore’s bullpen is just not Major League ready right now. Maybe this offseason Baltimore will spend a little more time filling out that bullpen. The Red Sox are favored at -300 with an 8.5 under/over.

Yordan Alvarez, Tor at Hou

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,500)

This kid is on fire! His price finally rose to 3,500 on FanDuel but that’s still not enough. Alvarez has averaged 26.80 FD points since entering the Majors just four games ago, homering in three of the four. He faces left-handed Clayton Richard, who allowed a .296 BA with 95% of his 47 home runs over the past three seasons to opposing righties. Don’t think, just do it!

Also Consider: Andrew Benintendi

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Stacks

The Boston Red Sox demolished the Orioles last night, just like I predicted in last night’s Win Daily On Deck article. The problem was many other teams/players went off as well. Tonight, there is no question in my mind that Boston will go off again. Baltimore’s bullpen is full of players that are just not capable of throwing one past these Red Sox sluggers. As I mentioned yesterday, Baltimore’s bullpen is ranked dead last in the league, carrying a 5.72 ERA. The question isn’t whether or not to invest in Boston but who to invest in within a Boston Stack. Use Holt, Benintendi, Betts and my fourth is TBD. Stay tuned on Twitter @JaguarDFS.

The Houston Astros Stack starts with Yordan Alvarez. His price finally rose to 3,500 on FanDuel but that’s still not enough. This kid is perfect to rev up an Astros team that has been a little off recently, posting a .232 BA in the month of June. The Astros face Clayton Richard, who struggled in his last start allowing seven earned runs over 2.2 innings pitched. Richard has not faced the Astros but could definitely run into some problems here against a right-handed heavy power offense in Houston. The Astros are favored by -210 with a 9 under/over.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Hitting and Stacks for 6/15: Baltimore Bashing

Alisia Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Alisia Gustafson

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First Base

Trey Mancini, Bos vs. Bal

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,600)

Second Base

Brock Holt, Bos at Bal

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,500)

Third Base

Todd Frazier, Nym vs. Stl

DK ($4,200) FD ($2,800)

Shortstop

Trea Turner, Ari @ Wsh **Early**

DK ($5,400) FD ($4,200)

Outfield

Bryce Harper, Atl vs. Phi

DK ($4,200) FD ($4,000)

Mookie Betts, Bos at Bal

DK ($5,800) FD ($5,100)

Yordan Alvarez, Tor at Hou

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,500)

Also Consider: Andrew Benintendi

Stacks

5 years ago 0 comment

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