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Are you looking to a different way to play daily fantasy sports? Want to dip your toe into prop plays? Well, once you are done reading our man StixPicks GPP article then come back because the Win Daily Sports family is now teamed up with the folks at Thrive Fantasy and we are offering an exclusive promotion to Win Daily subscribers. Let us go ahead and get right into the details of each and take a look at some nice props with our WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.24 Thrive Fantasy

With Thrive Fantasy when you sign up using the promo code WINDAILY when you click the link you will not only get a 100% deposit match (up to $100) but you will also get a free month of our Win Daily Gold membership.

And right now as a bonus there is a huge amount of overlay in the contest that I discuss below. There is also bonuses for this week on top of the normal promo.

– New users that deposit $10 will get a FREE Ticket to Sunday’s $100K Contest 
– New users that deposit $20 or more will get a 2 FREE Tickets to Sunday’s $100K Contest New users will still receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 as well.

Thrive has a really interesting format. They have a VS format that is similar to the Rapidfire contest that we love on MKF, but they also have a Traditional format that is really neat. Instead of purely using props, you have a pool of players with their respective over/under, and depending on whether you pick the over or the under there is a point total attached to whatever you pick. If you are correct, those points will be added to your score. With Versus you have an either or choice with who you think will outperform who, just be sure to check each player because one of them will get some kind of boost to level the playing field. It sounds more confusing than it is so check the How to Play section and take a look below at the contest I am playing to see what I mean.

The points and numbers update over time so if you see a batch of plays where you feel like you have an edge, get in there early and maximize the projected points you think you can get. This week I am going to be showcasing their versus mode, but there is huge overlay no matter what contest you play so hop in there and have some fun! Blending a little risk to get more points with stable options for floor will give you a solid foundation to put up a big number and find your way to the top of the leaderboard.

Folks please look at that first image and see the number, this contest is a GPP with 10 grand to first prize and it might be half full by lock. You are leaving money on the table in more ways than one if you do not get involved in this.

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What I am going to try and do here is take as many props as I feel comfortable with that don’t involve rushing/receiving TD’s due to the variance inherent to it. With Patrick Mahomes‘ prop everywhere sitting above 325 passing yards he and Travis Kelce are both easy overs for me today. I have been taking the Derrick Henry over every week this season and in 4 of 6 weeks he has exceeded 130 yards rushing and aside from week one has run for no less than 112.

Davante Adams is the first under I am taking with a 9.5 reception prop. While this game has all of the makings of a potential shootout Washington has put up duds in two of their last three and Rodgers has seen a little bit of regression this season with Davante’s numbers following suit only hitting 9+ catches in two of six. They are still good, just not the crazy week in and week out numbers we saw in 2020.

With Tua Tagovailoa back behind center for the Dolphins, in a 47 total game, against the defensively inept Falcons, and no run game to speak of going over 1.5 TD passes is my first TD prop of any kind. The Dolphins wasted no time last week having him drop back 47 times and with the trade talks rumbling I am sure he is going to want to silence any questions about him as a franchise QB.

Additional plays that I like to round out my selections are over 72.5 Rush/Rec yards for Josh Jacobs, over 92.5 Rush/Rec yards for Jonathan Taylor, and over .5 rushing TD’s for Lamar Jackson. You can take the under for any QB/Receiver props for the SF/Indy game with the wind being such a point of concerns for the Sunday night game

WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.24 Thrive Fantasy

I really had a fun time taking a look at what Thrive Fantasy has to offer for new players this season in  WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.24 Thrive Fantasy. Do not forget to hop into WinDaily Discord chat if you have any questions. Do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @stoweby  and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Are you looking to a different way to play daily fantasy sports? Want to dip your toe into prop plays? Well, once you are done reading our man StixPicks GPP article then come back because the Win Daily Sports family is now teamed up with the folks at Thrive Fantasy and we are offering an exclusive promotion to Win Daily subscribers. Let us go ahead and get right into the details of each and take a look at some nice props with our WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.10 Thrive Fantasy

With Thrive Fantasy when you sign up using the promo code WINDAILY when you click the link you will not only get a 100% deposit match (up to $100) but you will also get a free month of our Win Daily Gold membership.

And right now as a bonus there is a huge amount of overlay in the contest that I discuss below. There is also bonuses for this week on top of the normal promo.

– New users that deposit $10 will get a FREE Ticket to Sunday’s $100K Contest 
– New users that deposit $20 or more will get a 2 FREE Tickets to Sunday’s $100K Contest New users will still receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 as well.

Thrive has a really interesting format. They have a VS format that is similar to the Rapidfire contest that we love on MKF, but they also have a Traditional format that is really neat. Instead of purely using props, you have a pool of players with their respective over/under, and depending on whether you pick the over or the under there is a point total attached to whatever you pick. If you are correct, those points will be added to your score. With Versus you have an either or choice with who you think will outperform who, just be sure to check each player because one of them will get some kind of boost to level the playing field. It sounds more confusing than it is so check the How to Play section and take a look below at the contest I am playing to see what I mean.

The points and numbers update over time so if you see a batch of plays where you feel like you have an edge, get in there early and maximize the projected points you think you can get. This week I am going to be showcasing their versus mode, but there is huge overlay no matter what contest you play so hop in there and have some fun! Blending a little risk to get more points with stable options for floor will give you a solid foundation to put up a big number and find your way to the top of the leaderboard.

Folks please look at that first image and see the number, this contest is a GPP with 10 grand to first prize and it will not be half full by lock. You are leaving money on the table in more ways than one if you do not get involved in this.

Most of these are pretty self explanatory but Aaron Rodgers I chose to go under because while he may have a statistically significant game, when he is at his absolute best he is efficient when throwing and he can post a huge day on limited completions so the under 23.5 is a reasonable play. Dalvin Cook is best case scenario limited, and worst case scenario out so his 94.5 rushing prop seems way too steep. Keenan Allen is having a great year in PPR formats but the majority of the TD’s are going to Mike Williams (4) and Austin Ekeler (2) so far on the season (he only has one) so I will play the odds that the trend continues.

WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.10 Thrive Fantasy

I really had a fun time taking a look at what Thrive Fantasy has to offer for new players this season in  WDS:NFL Prop Plays 10.10 Thrive Fantasy. Do not forget to hop into WinDaily Discord chat if you have any questions. Do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @stoweby  and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Are you looking to a different way to play daily fantasy sports? Want to dip your toe into prop plays? Well, once you are done reading our man StixPicks GPP article then come back because the Win Daily Sports family is now teamed up with the folks at Thrive Fantasy and we are offering an exclusive promotion to Win Daily subscribers. Let us go ahead and get right into the details of each and take a look at some nice props with our WDS:NFL Prop Plays 9.19 Thrive Fantasy

With Thrive Fantasy when you sign up using the promo code WINDAILY when you click the link you will not only get a 100% deposit match (up to $100) but you will also get a free month of our Win Daily Gold membership.

And right now as a bonus there is a huge amount of overlay in the contest that I discuss below. There is also bonuses for this week on top of the normal promo.

– New users that deposit $10 will get a FREE Ticket to Sunday’s $100K Contest 
– New users that deposit $20 or more will get a 2 FREE Tickets to Sunday’s $100K Contest New users will still receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 as well.

Thrive has a really interesting format. They have a VS format that is similar to the Rapidfire contest that we love on MKF, but they also have a Traditional format that is really neat. Instead of purely using props, you have a pool of players with their respective over/under, and depending on whether you pick the over or the under there is a point total attached to whatever you pick. If you are correct, those points will be added to your score. With Versus you have an either or choice with who you think will outperform who, just be sure to check each player because one of them will get some kind of boost to level the playing field. It sounds more confusing than it is so check the How to Play section and take a look below at the contest I am playing to see what I mean.

The points and numbers update over time so if you see a batch of plays where you feel like you have an edge, get in there early and maximize the projected points you think you can get. This week I am going to be showcasing their versus mode, but there is huge overlay no matter what contest you play so hop in there and have some fun! Blending a little risk to get more points with stable options for floor will give you a solid foundation to put up a big number and find your way to the top of the leaderboard.

WDS:NFL Prop Plays 9.19 Thrive Fantasy

Let’s take a look at my selections below and see why I landed where I did.

Stafford over Carr +14.5 passing yards

Ravens man coverage was bad last week and I expect the Steelers to get a lot more pressure on Carr this week, Stafford still does not have what I call a potent run game and he looks great in LA after one week.

Sanders +10.5 yards over Johnathan Taylor

Niners defense is the walking wounded. I would have taken this straight up without the bonus and the Rams are still a solid run front. I see them bouncing back in week two.

Kittle over Higbee +1.5 receptions

Kittle is personally my favorite tight end this week. San Fran’s defense is badly hurt and the Eagles will force them to keep up. Kittle may end up with more than 15 targets this week.

Herbert over Burrow +0.5 TD’s

There is no total high enough for me in that Dallas/Chargers game. I like Burrow just fine but a Half TD is not nearly enough when Herbert could be looking at a 400 yard game with 3+ passing TD’s against a tissue paper soft defense.

Jameis Winston over Kyler Murray +0.5 INT’s

Jamies need to show me again before I believe it. Simple as that. You don’t go from 4 int’s a game to none overnight. I think he reverts back against a divisional opponent.

Dak Precott over Russell Wilson +10.5 passing yards

Russ is a beast but he is also more efficient. Dak is gonna have to go shot for show with Herbert tomorrow. Herbert and Precott will be 1 and 2 in the NFL in passing yards this week and I do not even think it will be close.

Tyreek Hill over Marquis Brown +0.5 receptions

The #1 receiver in the most prolific passing attack in the league with the best QB in the league throwing it 50 times a game or the #1 wide receiver in the least prolific passing game in the NFL with a running QB who throws the ball 25 times a game?

I really had a fun time taking a look at what Thrive Fantasy has to offer for new players this season in  WDS:NFL Prop Plays 9.19 Thrive Fantasy. Do not forget to hop into WinDaily Discord chat if you have any questions. Do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @stoweby  and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Are you looking to a different way to play daily fantasy sports? Want to dip your toe into prop plays? Well, once you are done reading our man StixPicks Cash article the Win Daily Sports team has brought you not one, but two stellar offers for the 2021 NFL season! Not only are we continuing our partnership with Monkey Knife Fight, but we are also proud to announce that Thrive Fantasy is offering an exclusive promotion to Win Daily subscribers. Let us go ahead and get right into the details of each and take a look at some nice props with our  WDS:NFL Props 9.12 Thrive Fantasy/Monkey Knife Fight.

***Starting next week I will do a separate article for both Thrive and Monkey Knife Fight. That way you will be able to get more plays for both sites so that you can maximize your deposit bonuses!***

For Monkey Knife Fight if you are a first time user all you have to do is sign up, make a deposit that will be matched 100% (up to $100), and enjoy both Monkey Knife Fight AND 3 Free Months of Win Daily Gold. Simply click image below to learn more.

In addition to that, for a limited time new Monkey Knife Fight users will receive a free $5 NFL Player Prop contest when creating our free account.

Let us start with the Touchdown Challenge contest where if all three of your players score a touchdown you not only win your bet, but you also win a share of the $5,000 pool. This week feels pretty straight forward as all of our stud running back options have plus matchups. Derrick Henry against Arizona, Dalvin Cook against Cincinnati, and Christian McCaffrey against the New York Jets. If you are feeling froggy go for the 3.5 TD goal. At least one of these guys is likely going to score multiple TD’s this week

Next up we have the Rapidfire contest in the Jags/Texans game where you can 3x you bet by picking the correct player and even with the bonus yards given to Phillip Lindsey and Tyrod Taylor I do not think they get anywhere close. The Texans are a trash can, we have no clue who the primary back will be, and as much as I love Tyrod his stats are….underwhelming.

With Thrive Fantasy when you sign up using the promo code WINDAILY when you click the link you will not only get a 100% deposit match (up to $100) but you will also get a free month of our Win Daily Gold membership.

And right now as a bonus there is a huge amount of overlay in the contest that I discuss below. There is also bonuses for this week on top of the normal promo.

– New users that deposit $10 will get a FREE Ticket to Sunday’s $100K Contest 
– New users that deposit $20 or more will get a 2 FREE Tickets to Sunday’s $100K Contest New users will still receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 as well.

Thrive has a really interesting format. They have a VS format that is similar to the Rapidfire contest that we love on MKF, but they also have a Traditional format that is really neat. Instead of purely using props, you have a pool of players with their respective over/under, and depending on whether you pick the over or the under there is a point total attached to whatever you pick. If you are correct, those points will be added to your score. It sounds more confusing than it is so check the How to Play section and take a look below at the contest I am playing to see what I mean.

The points and numbers update over time so if you see a batch of plays where you feel like you have an edge, get in there early and maximize the projected points you think you can get. I am getting in on the $20 Week 1 Sun- $100,000 GTD Contest this week. As you can see below, you are not forced into a bunch of players that you HAVE to choose from, rather there is a 20 player pool with associated props and point values attached. Blending a little risk to get more points with stable options for floor will give you a solid foundation to put up a big number and find your way to the top of the leaderboard.

I really had a fun time taking a look at what both Monkey Knife Fight and Thrive Fantasy has to offer for new players this season in  WDS:NFL Props 9.12 Thrive Fantasy/Monkey Knife Fight. Do not forget to hop into WinDaily Discord chat if you have any questions. Do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @stoweby  and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Core Plays for Thrive Week 4

We’re keeping things rolling for Week 4 after a 3-1 record for Week 3! We had an easy ride for three plays and one didn’t really come close but sometimes that’s the way it happens. We have a full board in front of us this week again! Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 4 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Play – Kenny Golladay Over Receiving Yards

I would have been interested in this play with Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore active. Now that he’s not, this feels like a smash play.

Golladay only hit 57 yards last week in his first game of the season, but he earned seven targets. He had 76 air yards on those targets and there’s a very important factor that he brought out of that game. He didn’t aggravate his groin injury. Now that he’s full speed and the Saints are without both their top corners, Golladay should have a huge day.

Core Play – Dalvin Cook Over Scrimmage Yards

I would maybe have preferred the rushing yards, but that’s fine because Cook finally saw some targets last week and is in the smash spot this week.

Honestly, I believe Cook is going to hit 100 rushing yards alone. No team has given up more yards to running backs on the ground than Houston. They are the only team over 500 yards through just three weeks. Cook found his groove last week in a game that stayed competitive throughout. The Texans have faced a terrible schedule early, but this game should be more back and forth. Cook saw five targets and is averaging over six yards per carry already. He’s super talented and shouldn’t have too hard a time hitting this mark.

Core Play – Mike Gesicki Over Receiving Yards

You guys didn’t think I could write this article and not talk about my guy Gesicki did you?

About the only thing more disappointing than the Jaguars performance last Thursday against the Dolphins was Gesicki. He scored, but he had one reception for 15 yards. This game is going to be a shootout and Gesicki now faces off against the Seattle defense without safety Jamal Adams. Gesicki has the most targets on the team and over 30% of the air yards. Sign me up.

Core Play – Darrell Henderson Over Rushing Yards

The Rams are one of the biggest favorites of the weekend and rookie Cam Akers is out. Enter Henderson who has taken over this backfield.

LA leads the entire league in rushing attempts with 37 per game and Henderson has been the man since Akers has gotten hurt. He’s racked up 32 attempts over the past two weeks. This offense is projected for about 30 points scored and are such heavy favorites that he should get close to another 20. The Giants won’t have any ability to stop him and I believe he cruises past this mark.

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Core Plays for Thrive Week 3

We’re back for Week 3 and we went 2-2 last week. Losing the Jared Goff yards prop by under 10 yards was a heartbreaker and I truly thought Ronald Jones had one more week until Leonard Fournette took over. Alas, that was not to be. Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 3 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Play – Miles Sanders Over Rushing Yards

It possibly makes me look stupid, but I really believe this prop is far too low and it should smash without much of an issue.

Through two games, the Bengals lead the league in rushing yards allowed. They are also one of just three teams that have given up over 300 on the ground. Sanders only has one game under his belt, but the Eagles gave him 20 attempts coming back from a hamstring injury. He’s already accounted for 46.5% of the team’s rushing attempts and he’s in line for another big workload again.

Core Play – David Montgomery Over Rushing Yards

We’re heading after another rushing prop that would have hit both weeks so far without even so much of a sweat.

So far, Montgomery has 29 carries which is inside the top 12 across the league. He’s rushed for 64 and 82 yards and now gets the Falcons defense. On paper, they look like a solid rushing defense with just 138 rushing yards given up to running backs. However, last weeks game script led the Dallas to pass the ball. The Bears will give Montgomery enough carries here to hit this one. They likely try to keep it on the ground to keep Matt Ryan and company off the field.

Core Play – James Conner Over Rushing Yards

We’re three for three with rushing props so far but this is another exploitable number with a good offense.

The Houston Texans join the Bengals as one of the three teams to allow over 300 rushing yards. Even if you don’t agree, Conner is the man in this backfield. Both he and Benny Snell have 22 carries, but that’s because Conner was hurt in Week 1. Conner out-rushed Snell last week by a 16-3 margin. Provided Conner stays on the field (the largest concern), he should hit this one easily as the workhorse.

Core Play – DeAndre Hopkins Over Receiving Yards

We want in on one of the more fantasy friendly games of the weekend and I’m looking at the NFL target leader for the last play.

Hopkins has one game where he nearly doubled this mark and one that went under. The latter game wasn’t super competitive but I believe this one is with the Lions passing game on the other side. Hopkins has 25 total targets and even though the aDOT is just 5.6, he still owns 28% of the team’s air yards. The Detroit secondary is very vulnerable and Hopkins is going to get fed the ball all day.

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Core Plays for Thrive Week 2

Week 1 wasn’t the greatest week ever, but it’s a fresh week and we actually have some hard data to work with. Sure, you don’t want to get too carried away with just one week of stats but it’s better than last year’s stats. Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 2 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Play – Jared Goff Over Passing Yards

The Rams head onto the road this Sunday but Goff is going to get a Philly defense that I still strongly believe can be had through the air. He passed for 275 yards in his first game on just 31 attempts, just missing his current prop.

The Rams ran the ball 40 times for over 150 yards but that’s not like to happen this week. The Eagles have been a passing funnel defense for a couple years. They shut down the run but get tagged through the air. Goff didn’t take chances last game with only 140 intended air yards but that script changes this weekend. If he almost hit it last weekend on 31 attempts, it won’t take much to get over the hump this week.

Core Play – Ronald Jones Over Rushing Yards

The Buccaneers backfield could turn into a mess at some point. However, that wasn’t the case the first game of the season. Jones was on the field for more than 47% of the snaps and ground out 66 yards on the ground against the Saints.

The Saints are a much tougher matchup than the Panthers. Not only did they get walloped on the ground last year, they kicked off the season by getting smacked by the Raiders for 122 yards on the ground, fifth-worst. If Jones gets another 17 carries, he should coast past this number.

Core Play – Diontae Johnson Over Receiving Yards

Johnson had a rough start to the Monday Night game with a fumbled punt and a quiet first half. It took time to get into sync with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He finished with 57 receiving yards. That’s his prop again this week.

Johnson was targeted 10 times and got stronger as the game wore on. If he can get to 57 in what amounted to one half of football, he can hit the ground running and clear this number quickly. He only had an aDOT of 6.3 but he’s shifty and establishing a connection with Big Ben. It’s a matter fo time before some deep shots come.

Core Play – Kyler Murray Over Rushing Yards

This is really a great spot to get some action on Murray’s rushing yards. The number is actually four yards under his 2019 average.

He flashed the upside with 91 rushing yards last week and Washington is interesting. Their strength is the front, generating a top five pressure rate last week. They also sacked Eagles QB Carson Wentz eight times. Due respect to Wentz (he would dust me in a 40 yard dash going backwards at 20% speed), Murray is the superior athlete. He can escape and make these plays with his legs that Wentz can’t. I won’t be surprised to see him go over 50 rushing yards here.

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Following up on the format introduced on our NBA livestreams featuring Michael Rasile and myself, we’ll be giving you all our Thrive Five for each NBA slate. For those that are familiar with the inside joke on the livestream, life is too short to live for the unders, but all jokes aside, we’ll be providing both sides of our five favorite player props from our partner at Thrive Fantasy; the picks are listed in order of preference, with the last two the “friskiest” of the bunch. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of Thrive Fantasy, make sure to read our full partnership review here, and to join now to get a deposit match of up to $50 and 3 free months of WinDaily: Gold Package using promo code windaily.

NBA Pick #1: Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 Rebounds

The first pick of the day is a young NBA player blossoming into an absolute star in these NBA Playoffs: Orlando Bubble edition. As the Celtics look to get over the hump in the Eastern conference, you can argue that this is as good of a chance that they’ll ever have considering both Milwaukee and Toronto have been eliminated. In his past 9 games, Tatum has gone for 9 or more rebounds 8 times, including going for double digits in his last 5. With Theis being man handled by Adebayo down low, Tatum has been crashing the glass often and efficiently, and he should continue to do so.

NBA Pick #2: Marcus Smart OVER 22.5 PRA (Points, Rebounds, Assists combined)

The second pick of the day is one of the defensive specialists in the NBA, Marcus Smart. Coming out of OSU, Smart had a great March Madness tournament and really found his offensive game in his sophomore year. In the NBA, he’s a two-time NBA all-defensive team member, both coming in the past two seasons, but in these NBA playoffs, he’s contributing just as much on the offensive end of the floor. His volume in undeniable, and so are his minutes – Smart has played 35 or more minutes in every playoff game other than Game 1 against Toronto, which was a blowout. With the amount of minutes he plays combined with having 48 FG attempts in his past three games, including 34 from deep, this is a great spot for someone with a 22.5 over/under PRA.

NBA Pick #3: Goran Dragic OVER 18.5 Points

The third pick of the day is someone that we spoke about in the livestream, and while the majority of the field focused on Jimmy Butler, we nailed Dragic’s importance to Miami’s offense in this series. After dropping 15, 15, and 17 points in Games 3-5, respectively, versus Milwaukee, Dragic put up 29 in Game 1 versus Boston and had not gone under 20 points in every game throughout the NBA playoffs.

NBA Pick #4: Jaylen Brown OVER 28.5 PRA (Points, Rebounds, Assists combined)

The fourth pick of the day is one where end up getting a bit riskier with our selections as we look to maximize our payouts on parlays and points scored in GPP style tournaments. While Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are both the preferred “over” picks, JB’s 28.5 mark for all three primary offensive statistics is low considering he’s seeing more usage than Kemba Walker as of late, and has been playing more minutes. Being on the wing and not having to face Jimmy Butler, who is tasked with guarding Tatum, Brown should be able to take advantage of anyone else who guards him, including Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, or others.

NBA Pick #5: Daniel Theis UNDER 10.5 PA (Points + Assists combined)

The last pick of the day is one that we got in Game 1, with Daniel Theis hitting under 17.5 points and rebounds. Today, we have the opportunity to hit the under 10.5 points and assists combination; Theis has only gotten more than two assists in one of his last ten games, and, as predicted on the livestream, his struggles versus Bam Adebayo on the interior will make it tough for him to hit such a low total, nonetheless.

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets… It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 1 Plays

Player Prop DescriptionOddsUnit Risk
Marlon Mack O54.5 Rush Yds-1121.5
Rodgers O252.5 P Yds+1001.5
Anthony Miller O39.5 yds-1121.25
Anthony Miller O3.5 Rec+1151
Stefon Diggs O51.5 Rec Yds-1121
Ryan Fitzpatrick O234.5 P Yds-1120.5
Julio Jones U90.5 Rec Yds+1011
Todd Gurley O17.5 Rec Yds-1121
Julio Jones U6.5 REC+1150.5
Tyler Lockett O4.5 REC-1411
Bridgewater P Yds > Carr P Yds+1110.5
Darren Waller U4.5 REC+1100.5
Curtis Samuel O3.5 REC+1251
DJ Moore O5.5 REC+1100.5
Lamar Jackson O219.5 P Yds-1120.5
Lamar Jax P Yds > Baker P Yds+1300.5
Jarvis Landry O4.5 REC+1200.5
TY Hilton U63.5 Yds-1120.5
Jack Doyle O30.5 Yds-1120.5
Tyrod Taylor O219.5 P Yds-1122
Keenan Allen O55.5 Rec Yds-1121
Austin Ekeler O34.5 Rec Yds-1121
Drew Brees U292.5 P Yds-1120.5
Raheem Mostert O52.5 Rush Yds-1251

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Core Bets for Thrive Week 1

There’s not many things better than a full Sunday slate of NFL football and we are just a couple days away from the first one this year! Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Bets for Thrive Week 1 to get you started into the world of NFL prop betting this Sunday!

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Core Bet – Dalvin Cook

It doesn’t appear that Cook will get the new contract he wanted from the Vikings, but he’s still going to play this Sunday. Those are direct quotes from Cook to the Star Tribune, so there’s no reason to think anything else would happen. That leads me to be over this rushing yardage, especially at the plus points.

That line is right at what Cook averaged last season. He also torched the Pack in the one game he faced them last year for 154 yards. That shouldn’t be a surprise since the Packers gave up 128.7 rushing yards per game, seventh-worst in football. With Gary Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, Minnesota will maintain a strong rushing attack. Kubiak has been a rush game guru for going on two decades now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cook hit 100 yards or more here.

Core Bet – Keenan Allen

I’m trying to not be too overzealous with new situations. Keenan Allen has a new quarterback this year but the Chargers also just signed him to a massive extension. You don’t give the receiver who had the seventh-most targets in the NFL in 2019 big money to not target him again.

Just like Cook, the over is worth more points which I’m happy about. Allen averaged 6.5 receptions per game last year and the Chargers did not make any significant additions to the pass catchers. New QB Tyrod Taylor simply does not turn the football over, accumulating just a 1.5% interception rate in his career. For reference, Drew Brees is 2.3% for his career. Allen should see plenty of targets right off the hop, trying to establish chemistry with his new signal caller.

Core Bet – Drew Brees

One of the marquee games of the week is the Buccaneers visiting New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Battle of Brady vs Brees is center stage in Week 1. It’s always a bit more fun to get into big game for Core Bets for Thrive Week 1. We also have a good prop to attack in this game.

In his six regular season games in the dome, Brees averaged 31 completions. He had a massive 77.5% completion rate and this game is one of the highest projected scoring games of the week. Furthermore, the way to attack the Bucs defense last year was through the air. They averaged 25.5 completions to the opposition, so there’s too many factors lining up to not take Brees here.

Core Bet – Christitan McCaffrey

Rarely would I consider a number this high, but Christian McCaffrey is a rare player and an engine for his entire offense.

Not only did CMC average just under 150 total yards per game last year, he finished 11th in total targets in the NFL. McCaffrey also finished third in rushing yards and would have finished 25th among wide receivers in receiving yards. This man is a machine and will be asked to do everything for the rebuilding Panthers once again. It’s a super high number, but one well worth going over.

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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