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Valspar Championship Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Valspar Championship, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of the Copperhead course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a g...

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Valspar Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Scoring on The Snake Pit could be key in our Valspar Championship preview

Last year, we successfully tipped Taylor Moore at 70/1 for our preview of the 2023 Valspar Championship. Let’s find the winner at the Copperhead course again this week!

The Players Championship absolutely lived up to its billing last week, producing perhaps the most enthralling tournament of the PGA Tour season thus far. It was another great week for our selections as well. We tipped Brian Harman at 80/1 who finished just one shot off Scottie Scheffler. He locked in a full place at +1600 and a Top 20 at +275. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 wound up in 6th, cashing a full place at +700. As sexy as picking the outright winner of a golf tournament is, both of those plays had better returns than picking the World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler.

We then went 5/6 for our main selections in the Round 4 matchups. Although disappointing to just miss a huge multi at around +4000, it was again a fabulous return on our 2 Ball best bets.

Alongside all our Valspar Championship betting tips, we have a preview with some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.

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Copperhead Course Analysis

Certainly, this golf course is no pushover and a comprehensive preview is imperative if we are to find the winner of the Valspar Championship in back-to-back years.

The only holes that played under par in 2023 were the four par 5s. Sam Burns, who defended his title here in 2022 then finished 6th in 2023, ranked 11th and 7th in Par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour in both the years he won the Valspar Championship.

Ideally, golfers will be long and straight off the tee here. If you were to sacrifice one, it would be driving distance. The Copperhead golf course consistently ranks in the top 3 most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour. We also see one of the Top 5 reductions in driving distance on this golf course. This is a factor of golfers clubbing down off the tee in order to find the safety of the fairway.

A disproportionate number of shots on approach occur from over 200+ yards, and this was one of the key metrics that helped us find winner Taylor Moore in 2023. Notably, all the par 3s play at 195 yards or longer.

Greenskeeper’s Preview of the Valspar Championship

There are some interesting notes from the greenkeepers this week, which mirror what we saw here in 2023:

  • Cool, wet weather has been great for ryegrass growth, including thicker rough.
  • Last year the rough height was increased to 3.75” from 3” in previous years
  • Also last year the intermediate cut width around the greens was decreased from 72” to 21” to bring the rough closer to the greens.

Accuracy has a strong correlation to success whenever you preview the Valspar Championship. With heavy rain in Florida to start 2024 and the rough grown out, expect the rough to be even more juicy and thick than previously.

Finally, a note on SG: ATG. Previously, this has been key to success in any Copperhead golf course analysis. However, do note the move of the intermediate fringe in for the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. This sees a reduction in expected output from short-game. Essentially, a tighter lie allows more creativity of shot around the green. With the thick rough moving closer to the playing surface, this takes some of the selection out of play. It leaves hacking the ball at as the sole way to return the ball to play. Therefore, around the green may play less of a factor than the historical metrics suggest.

Valspar Championship Preview: Copperhead Course Comps

Importantly, do note that prior course form provides less weighting towards future success compared to other PGA Tour venues. The reasons for this are two-fold. Firstly, this has previously been a weaker field. This results in a higher rate of turnover year on year compared to other courses. Secondly, the volatile nature of the Copperhead golf course provides for a wider range of outcomes. Sam Burns may fly in the face of that statement, but he is the exception rather than the rule.

Correlated course form can be found at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Host of The Memorial tournament, the golf course is tree-lined with a similar average length of par 4/5. It ranks in the top 5 on the PGA Tour both for missed fairway penalty and rough penalty. We also experience a large reduction in driving distance on that golf course, which allows us to target the longer iron approach play which is imperative to success this week.

TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, provides another nice correlation. It is a course where driving accuracy again reigns supreme.

On the DP World Tour, tree-lined accuracy based golf courses like Valderrama and PGA Catalunya come to mind. The Belfry and Rinkven are also courses where the combination of driving accuracy and long iron approach prove predictive.

Weather

As regular readers of these pages will note, we do weight weather predictions heavily within our modelling. Weather could prove pivotal in any preview of the Valspar Championship this week. We tend to have a good track record of getting this correct.

We correctly forecast that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would end in a 54 hole tournament, and I will make a similar prediction this week. I do think that, should current forecasts stay true, this will either be a 54 hole event or (more likely) another Monday finish is on the cards.

Friday is the main issue in this respect. A lot of rain is forecast, with potential thunderstorm risks. The winds also look very heavy, gusting to over 40 mph during Friday.

On current forecasts, I suspect that we see delays Friday. This should result in an advantage to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times receiving an advantage. Those set to go out Friday afternoon could well see their rounds delayed into Saturday. Saturday morning does still look windy, but much less sever than on Friday.

I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.

Valspar Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valspar Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Valspar Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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The Players Round 4 2 Balls: DeepDiveGolf’s Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 4 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips and 2 Balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

It was a mixed bag for our golfers in the 3rd round, as the volatile TPC Sawgrass always tends to produce. Tom Hoge (80/1) was playing brilliantly and sitting in the Top 10, before the dreaded 18th swallowed two of his golf balls in the water. The subsequent quadruple bogey dropped him all the way to 35th and an outside chance on our Top 20 bet at +300.

Likewise, Nick Taylor (175/1) has been sitting 2nd for the first two days of play. He completely lost his swing over the first 10 holes, including a 135 yard shank driving on the 10th hole finding water. He was mildly better over the final 8 holes, sitting 22nd. Still, he is a chance for a Top 20 at +450 and a Top 40 at +200.

In better news, Brian Harman (80/1) is right in contention. He completed the lowest 2nd and 3rd round total at The Players Championship, following up his 65 with a 64 on Saturday. Harman sits in 3rd just two shots off the lead.

Our favourite of the week, Hideki Matsuyama (35/1), sits in 9th. He leads the field in ball-striking this week and remains towards the top of the leaderboard despite sitting 65th for SG: PUTT. Although he is likely too far back to chase a win at 7 shots off the lead, he is a chance for a place payout at +700.

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The Players Championship Round 4 Best Bets

Putnam over Molinari -130

Andrew Putnam ranks 23rd in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months, yet is 68/73 putting of those who made the cut. That included losing -2.01 SG: PUTT in the 3rd round, with missed birdie chances at the 1st, 9th, and 12th holes as well as a bogey on 6th after missing a 7 footer.

Meanwhile, Molinari is exceeding his typical putting baseline, sitting 25th for putting this week whilst only ranking 126th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 12 months. Molinari also ranks as one of the worst in the filed for SG: APP over the last 12 months under 150 yards. This represents the highest number of approach shots at TPC Sawgrass.

This is the one of the strengths of Putnam’s game. His approach numbers are a little hidden, given he found the water on 18 Saturday costing him -1.42 SG: APP on that hole alone. Combined with expected regression in putting metrics, it sees Putnam as value at this number.

Hubbard over English +130

Much as we stated in our Round 2 Best Bets article, Hubbard continues to display excellent ball-striking this week. He is 3rd for driving accuracy and 7th for SG: APP, sitting 4th for SG: BS.

The problem really has been the putter. There has actually been much improvement in this aspect of his game of late, ranking 24th in this field putting over the past 3 months. Additionally, he has tended to putt well at TPC Sawgrass. He has been at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship bar on debut.

Of some concern is that English lost -3.01 SG: Putt in the 3rd round, well below his baseline. However, the far better ball-striking numbers from Hubbard suggest he should be much closer to even money than an outsider in this matchup.

Lowry over McCarthy -110

Lowry has been in fabulous form of late, finishing 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 4th at the Cognizant Classic the week prior. He also holds a strong record at The Players Championship where has finished 8th, 13th, and 16th before. Correlated courses of Sedgefield and Wentworth also see Lowry hold good finishes.

Outside a 13th placed finish in 2023, McCarthy has finished no better than 41st at The Players Championship in his other three starts here. Currently, he is really struggling with driver and on approach. It has been more of the same this week, finding only 23 fairways over the first 3 rounds and 48th on approach despite not finding the water.

Lowry let birdie putts go on holes 1, 9, 12, 14, 16, and 17 on Saturday. Additionally, he missed a 3ft 4in par putt on the 5th hole. That is well below average even for Lowry’s standards, on a golf course he has been a net gainer when putting.

Rai over Knapp -115

Aaron Rai finally found his approach in the 3rd round, gaining +3.55 SG: APP on Saturday. Although holing out for eagle on the 14th certainly helped, he was still +1.51 on approach for the other 17 holes.

Rai also ranks 1st in the field for driving accuracy this week, the most predictive factor for success at TPC Sawgrass. He has missed only 7 fairways all week. On the other hand, Knapp typically struggles with driving accuracy. The same can be said this week. He is sitting just 50th for driving accuracy, including finding only 6 fairways on Saturday.

Sitting 63/73 for SG: BS and 71/73 for SG: OTT doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for Knapp. Certainly, a final round appearance for the rookie is an achievement in itself. However, it is a challenge he may find difficult on debut.

Matsuyama over Montgomery -143
The Players Round 4 Favourite Bet

As in the introduction, Matsuyama is really in an excellent vein of form with the ball-striking. He leads the field in that metric this week. The putter continues to be a struggle for Matsuyama this week. However, that is the most volatile club in the bag and one that we so often see regress towards a golfer’s baseline over a much shorter timespan.

Montgomery is one of the most inaccurate drivers in this field, ranking 139th in this field over the past 12 months. Although a superb putter in general, there is only so long around TPC Sawgrass that you can avoid the dangers of water at nearly every turn. The odds at Bet365 are also generous. Matsuyama is a -220 or shorter favourite at most other books.

Harman over McNealy -125

As fun as McNealy 3rd round was to watch, that fairytale can only last so long. Chip-ins on holes 3, 14 and 15 (after putting off the green) are unlikely to occur again.

McNealy ranks just 60th in the tournament for SG: APP. He has carried heavily by his fortunate wedge play and putter to find himself in contention. Really, it is quite an unsustainable way to build a scorecard.

Meanwhile, Harman has looked truly excellent thus far. He is 3rd for SG: APP, 5th for SG : BS, and 4th for SG: PUTT. When you account for the fact he actually lost on approach in his opening round, he has gained +6.35 SG: APP for Friday and Saturday. Those numbers should carry him over McNealy. It may even see him lift the trophy on Sunday.

Lashley over Scheffler +400 Singles Only

Rounding out our selections are a couple of speculative outsiders. Therefore, these are included as singles only.

Taking on Scheffler in most circumstances seems absurd. Undisputedly, he should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. The issue comes more with the number.

The fact is, the general public are going to jump on Scheffler no matter what the odds are in this matchup. Obviously, the books need to cover this. Hence, he is a -450 favourite when he should be closer to -200. Add in the additional wrinkle of the Scheffler neck injury, it seems worth taking a contrarian stance here.

For the record, my numbers produced a similar story for C.T. Pan at +250 over McIlroy over at Fanduel. I wasn’t quite brave enough to pull that trigger on that one. However, I’ll note that the model did like that play for Round 4 of The Players Championship.

Schenk over Burns +180 Singles Only

Again, I won’t deny the fact that Burns should be the favourite in this 2 Ball. However, the number has slipped a little too far in his favour when he should be more fairly priced at -100.

Schenk has been the much better ball-striker of these two over the first three rounds. He ranks 11th for SG: BS and 7th for SG: T2G. This includes ranking 7th for driving accuracy, 12th for SG: OTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 16th for SG: ATG. He has missed just 10 fairways thus far. Meanwhile, Burns is 61/73 for driving accuracy having found just 23 fairways so far this week.

The issue for Schenk has once again been the putter. However, entering Round 4 at The Players we can take some solace from the fact Schenk has typically putted well here. He has gained putting in 3/4 appearances at TPC Sawgrass. In the other tournament, he only lost -0.5 SG: Putt.

Expecting some positive regression in his putting numbers, I am willing to take the underdog in this matchup.

The Players Championship Round 4 2 Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Putnam over Molinari -130 (Bet365)
1u Hubbard over English +130 (William Hill/Unibet)
1u Lowry over McCarthy -110 (Bet365)
1.5u Rai over Knapp -115 (Bet365)
2u Matsuyama over Montgomery -143 (Bet365)
2u Harman over McNealy -125 (Unibet)
0.5u Lashley over Scheffler +400 (Unibet) Singles Only
0.5u Schenk over Burns +180 (William Hill) Singles Only

Parlays/Mutis
Putnam/Hubbard/Lowry/Rai/Matsuyama/Harman to win their 2 Ball

0.4u All 6 +4126 Bet365
0.6u Boxed 5 Folds (6 x 0.1u each)
1.5u Boxed 4 Folds (15 x 0.1u each)
5u Boxed Trebles (20 x 0.25u each)
7.5u Boxed Doubles (15 x 0.5u each)

25u Total Invested

Before Round 4, rewatch The Players PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 4 betting tips.

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The Players Championship: DeepDiveGolf’s Round 2 Preview & Best Bets

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
DeepDiveGolf gives his Round 2 Best Bets at The Players Championship

Before getting into The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets, I recommend going back to read my tournament preview article here. This provides context behind The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips and 3-balls below. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass and important course comps for the tournament.

What a first round it was for our selections! An unfortunate withdrawal by Tom Kim (citing illness) aside, we couldn’t have asked for a much better start.

5/7 of the “healthy” players are 22nd or better. Most impressively, Nick Taylor continues to impress and is right in contention once again this week. We secured him earlier this week over at WinDaily Sports at HUGE odds of 175/1.

Ryan Fox (200/1) was an obvious eye-catcher. He became the first golfer to eagle 16 and make a hole-in-one at the 17th at The Players Championship. Kiwi magic right there!

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The Players Championship Round 2 Best Bets

Mark Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Keith Mitchell +190

I included Oakdale Golf & Country Club as part of my analysis this week. I suspected that correlations of a driving accuracy wedge-fest would suit well to The Players Championship. It was part of the reason for including Nick Taylor as I spoke about in our article.

Look at the rest of the 2023 RBC Canadian Open leaderboard compared to Round 1 at The Players Championship though. Beyond the obvious names of Fleetwood, Hatton, and McIlroy there were a few other golfers, but they performed above their expectation. Namely CT Pan, Eric Cole, and Mark Hubbard. They sit 22nd, 37th, and 13th respectively after Round 1.

Hubbard gained +3.48 SG: APP in Round 1 to sit third in that metric, as well as 2nd for driving accuracy and 9th ATG to lead the field in SG: T2G. Basically, he still managed to win this 3-ball on Thursday despite ranking 138/144 for putting.

However, Hubbard has actually been putting very well of late. He ranks 24th in this field for SG: PUTT over the past 3 months. Mitchell ranks 88th and Dylan Wu ranks 107th in that same metric. Previously, he has putted well here as well being at or above field average in all appearances at The Players Championship except his first.

This seems a prime spot for some positive putting regression and like the number on the middle odds in this group.

Byeong-Hun An over Matti Schmid & Patrick Rodgers +115

I’m not sure I need to speak about the credentials of Benny An here too much, as he made our betting card and Premium subscribers will already be well aware. In short he has a 2022 Korn Ferry Tour win came on a comparable course at the LECOM Suncoast Classic, a record at the highly comparable Sedgefield Country Club reading 18-MC-3-35-2, and he is a winner at another comp course at Wentworth where he has never finished worse than 33rd.

Driving accuracy is the real key at The Players Championship and Benny An ranked 2nd in Round 1 as well as 27th for SG: APP. Of his two competitors, Matti Schmid actually holds the more concern for me. He was a promising talent on the DP World Tour before struggling with the jump in class in his rookie PGA Tour season. He was 22nd in his first look at Sedgefield and finished 10th last week in Puerto Rico. However, I do wonder if he gets the speed wobbles here. Two eagles is unlikely to happen again and neither is sitting 9th for SG: PUTT, all whilst waking up finding himself in 13th at The Players.

As for Rodgers, he has an abysmal record at this track with 5 MC, a MDF, and a 65th. The same can be said at Sedgefield, he has never finished better than 24th in 8 attempts with half of those not seeing four rounds. More looks on the cards for him this week where he lost strokes across the board in Round 1, including hitting only 8/14 fairways.

Corey Conners over J.J. Spaun & Davis Riley+100

A relatively simple play here. Corey Conners is clearly the class of this 3-ball, which he demonstrated in this group on Thursday beating Spaun by 4 shots and Riley by 6.

Riley has been out of form for quite some time, having a best finish of 28th in the last 11 months. It is a real shame to see when he was such a promising rookie in 2022.

For J.J. Spaun, he was 130/144 players for SG: APP in Round 1 and actually 41st for putting when gaining 0.82 SG: PUTT. We should give the putting anomaly some perspective. Outside gaining putting at Pebble Beach, his sole cut made in his last 6 tournaments when finishing 54th, he has lost a combined -8.75 SG: PUTT in the other 10 rounds. That recipe isn’t going to inspire anyone and gives no confidence it can continue. Negative regression can be expected.

Despite the well-known putting struggles of Conners, he has actually been a net gainer when putting at The Players Championship. That includes when finishing 7th here in 2021 and gaining in 3/5 appearances. He also was 10th for driving accuracy and 4th for SG: T2G in Round 1, suggesting a more sustainable method to continue to win in this group.

Nate Lashley over Ben Kohles and Robby Shelton +162

Again, I’m not sure too much needs to be said about this one. Lashley opened with a 68 (-4) on Thursday, whilst the other two in this group both finished +8 leading to a massive gap of 12 shots between the competitors.

Robby Shelton has never made a cut here, at Sedgefield, or at Oakdale. He was dead last for putting in Round 1 and 139th for SG: T2G. Kohles has never played The Players Championship before and has a record at Sedgefield of 70-MC-54. Additionally, the aforementioned correlated Korn Kerry Tour tournament the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also poor. He missed 3 cuts there with his sole made cut a 67th place finish. He was the 2nd worst putter in Round 1 and 141st for SG: T2G.

Certainly, Lashley was just clearly a lot better including being 8th for SG: APP in Round 1. I don’t actually expect Lashley to keep up his current pace. However, I’m not sure that will be required in order to achieve the desired result here.

The Players Championship Round 2 3-Balls
Suggested Staking

Singles
1.5u Hubbard over Dylan Wu & Mitchell +190 Bet365
1.5u Byeong-Hun An over Schmid & Rodgers +115 Various
2u Conners over Spaun & Riley +100 FanDuel
1.5u Lashley over Kohles & Shelton +162 Bet365

Parlays/Mutis
0.5u All 4 +2552 Bet365
2u Boxed Trebles (4 x 0.5u each) Bet365
6u Boxed Doubles (6 x 1u each) Bet365

15u Total Invested

Rewatch The Players Championship PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading The Players Championship Round 2 betting tips.

Make sure you subscribe to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel.

Join Sia Nejad (@sianejad), Spence Aguiar (@TeeOffSports), and Joel (@draftmasterflex) as we talk through the PGA Tour tournament each week whilst drafting a DFS team. There’s always great banter and plenty of sharp plays.
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The Players DFS Advice: DeepDiveGolf’s DFS Player Pool and Strategies

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our DFS pool for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. This helps explain reason and my process behind The Players Cham...

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The Players Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for The Players, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC Sawgrass, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into ...

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The Players Preview 2024: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The iconic TPC Sawgrass plays host as we preview The Players Championship 2024

The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Sawgrass, where this iconic course plays host once again to the “5th Major” as we preview The Players Championship 2024. Perhaps contentious is to argue whether this still represents the best field in golf. Yes, the field is undoubtedly weakened compared to previous iterations. The shame, for golf fans more than anything else, is that such a field with all the best players no longer exists due to the rather political current state of the game of professional men’s golf.

My stance is this is still the best we get. It is true both in terms of depth but also the size of the field. Surely, the best field in golf is the most difficult to beat. That remains true statistically, just. Arguments could be made for the US Open and The Open Championship. Until then, we wait for the powers that be to reunite the game (hopefully).

Another great week, especially on the DP World Tour. We had 2nd place Jordan Smith in our tips, as well as a great run from 190/1 selection Pavan in South Africa.

At the Puerto Rico Open, all 6 of our tips made the cut. 5/6 of our golf betting tips finishing 23rd or better. Victor Perez was our strongest as he finished 3rd, just one shot outside the playoff.

Alongside all The Players betting tips, we already have some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are delivering great closing line value.
We’ve already hit Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 to start 2024 with a bang!

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The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Analysis

Assisting our preview of The Players this week is a return to a regular venue. TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event since 1982, so he have a ton of data to deep-dive into.

Despite not being the longest course at 7,275 yards par 72, this track always proves a stern test. Winning scores in the low to mid teens have been common here. Much of that comes down to the abundant water hazards on the course, with water in-play on 17 of the 18 holes. Rough is a thick 3.5in ryegrass and is penal. Greens are small at just under 5,500 sq ft on average. And we see a return to poa annua surfaces, which we will experience on the majority of courses in Florida.

This eye-test is reflected in the data. The course ranks in the top 5 highest penalties for missed fairways and in the top 6 for number of penalties every year since 2015. Therefore, driving accuracy is a large predictor of success here. The course actually ranks inside the top 10 shortest for average driving distance as players seek to find the short stuff.

Approach is also tricky. TPC Sawgrass has ranked as the 2nd, 2nd, and 1st most difficult on the tour for approach under 150 yards over the last 3 years. We also see a disproportionate number of shots within those ranges compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.

Find the fairways, nail or wedges, avoid the water, and make your putts is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass.

The Players Preview: TPC Sawgrass Course Comps

Course history is not actually overly strong at TPC Sawgrass. The volatile nature of the golf course explains that fact. However, another benefit to our preview of The Players is it has one of the strongest correlations to another golf course that we will see all year.

Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, is extremely correlated to success at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim has not only won at both, but also has an additional 9th here to compliment a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th at Sedgefield. Webb Simpson loves the Wyndham Championship so much he named his daughter after the event. He is also a winner of The Players Championship. You can also add Henrik Stenson down as another to complete the winning double. It should be your key guide as you preview The Players field this week.

Other parallels can be found at the RBC Heritage host Harbour Town, another fiddly course designed by Pete Dye. It puts pressure on finding fairways and on short approach shots.

From the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth makes some nice links. Viktor Hovland has finished 5th there in 2022 and 2023 while finishing 9th and 3rd at The Players the same year. Aaron Rai has finished 14th and 2nd at Wentworth and finished an admirable 19th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Shane Lowry has a win, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th around Wentworth. He also has an 8th, 13th and 16th at TPC Sawgrass. Christiaan Bezuidenhout also links the two courses nicely. He holds a 3rd and 5th at Wentworth, plus finished 13th at The Players and also has the sneaky hidden -7 1st round in 2020 before the tournament was suspended at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Weather

TPC Sawgrass, with it’s premium on accuracy and exposed nature, has seen some significant weather edges develop in recent iterations.

Perhaps most notably was in 2022. The entire industry was on a singular weather wave due to significant winds in the forecast. We took a contrarian stance to the industry, spotting a high risk of thunderstorms meaning play was likely to be delayed. We got the weather spot on, and enjoyed huge leverage as a result with the biggest weather edge of the season.

Both Thursday and Friday represent a similar forecast in terms of wind. There are easier conditions in the morning leading to higher gusts in the afternoon. The only wrinkle in this is that heavy rain and thunderstorms are once again on the cards for the Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks very windy, but the morning should be calm until about midday.

At this stage, the forecast still remains a little uncertain. If you were to hedge your bets, it may again pay to be a little contrarian. Target those going Thursday AM and Friday PM in the hope thunderstorms delay play. This would push those groups to a calmer Saturday morning. As always, check-in to the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord for the latest in the forecast.

The Players Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for The Players Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here shortly or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of The Players Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Daily Fantasy SportsSports BettingPGA

LIVE PGA Draftcast The Players Championship

Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar
written by Sia, DeepDiveGolf - David BieleskiJoel Schreck & Spencer Aguiar

The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The best field in golf? Possibly.

The crew are back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily The Players First Round Leader picks!

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