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Taysom Hill

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

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Unlike weeks past, we still have 2 games to play today and 2 tomorrow.  Thanks COVID! 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

If you have ask most Ravens fans, Marquise Brown had 1 less target than he should have had in Week 15.  Many camera angles show him wide open in the end zone when they went for 2.  That said, he still had a great weekend in terms of targets. No one in the NFL had more targets than Brown did this weekend.  Brown was targeted 14 times this.  It’s not all rosy picture though for Brown. 

Even though he was able to catch 10 of his targets, he went for only 43 yards passing.  After getting 116 yards vs. the Vikings in week 9 Brown now has 6 consecutive weeks of less than 60 receiving yards and also hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7 vs. the Bengals.  If the Ravens have any hope of beating the Bengals next weekend they’ll need a bounce back game from Brown.

While Brown had a down week, Tyreek Hill showed the world why he is one of the most dynamic players in the game, albeit frustrating players as well.  Hill had gone 9 consecutive games without breaking the 100 yard mark.  This week he broke it with some room to spare.  Hill was able to catch 12 of his 13 week 15 targets for 148 receiving yards.  He was also able to find the end zone for the first time since week 10.  Hill and his teammates look to keep the good times rolling against the Steelers in Week 16.

Brandon Cooks, have yourself a day!  For the second consecutive week Cooks had double digit targets and over 100 yards receiving.  With opening week starter Tyrod Taylor down with an injury, Cooks and Davis Mills have really found a rhythm together and it’s been somewhat fun to watch.  The two of them also connected for 2 touchdowns this weekend.  Up next week is a much tougher assignment in the Chargers.  Can they keep connecting like they have been?  

Running Back Targets

Penn State alum Saquon Barkley led all backs this weekend with 8 targets.  The good news?  He was able to catch 4 of them.  The bad news?  He did absolutely nothing with the targets as he finished with just 24 receiving yards.  There’s no other way to describe his 2021 season than saying it’s an utter disappointment.  He’ll look to get back on track next weekend vs. an Eagles team that is fighting for their playoff lives.

I’m not going to spend too much time talking about running backs and targets this weekend as running backs and targets did not mix well.  Not a single back had more than 50 yards receiving this weekend and there were only 5 receiving touchdowns for backs.  Ameer Abdullah led all running backs in receiving yards.  If that doesn’t tell you about the weekend and running backs, I don’t know what will. 

Tight End Targets

Where I do want to spend some time is with Tight Ends.  I’ll start with Mark Andrews.  Week 15 was very kind to Andrews.  He led all tight ends with 13 targets.  Andrews was able to catch 10 of them for 136 yards and 2 scores.  My season long fantasy team thanks you very much.  This was Andrews second consecutive week with over 100 yards receiving and fourth overall.  Up next week for Andrews and his mates are the Cincinnati Bengals in a must win game for the Ravens.

While Andrews had a stellar week, Travis Kelce was really the one who stole the show.  Kelce finished 9 yards shy of the 200 yard mark.  He was able to convert his 13 targets into 10 catches and 2 touchdowns.  This was Kelce’s first 100 yard game since week 10 against the Raiders.  The combo of Hill and Kelce combined for well over 300 yards.  They’ll look to do it against this coming weekend against the Steelers.

We won’t go down the negative road and talk about the night that Rob Gronkowski had.  Ok, you talked me into it.  Gronk had arguably his worst game of the year, as did Brady. The only other game that comes close to his poor week 15 performance was all the way back in week 8 vs. the same New Orleans Saints.  Gronk was targeted 11 times yesterday and was only able to catch 2 of them for just 29 yards.  Gronk season long owners in the playoffs probably weren’t too happy with that yesterday.  

Quarterback Target Share

Ryan Tannehill threw the ball 32 times in week 15.  Of those 32 times, more than half went to either his running backs or tight ends.  Once Julio Jones left the game yesterday, it became a much different plan of attack for Tannehill.  Tannehill now has 3 consecutive weeks with less than 200 yards passing.  With both his top receivers injured he’s struggled to find anyone else. 

When you have a tight end like Mark Andrews, you use him heavily.  That’s exactly what Tyler Huntley did on Sunday.  Of the 39 pass attempts for Huntley, a third of them went to Andrews.  Another third went to Marquise Brown, although those were far less successful than Andrews’ targets. This has pretty much been the game plan all year.  Thrown to either Andrews or Brown and it has worked with much success.  

If you expected the Lions to completely dominate the Cardinals in week 15 raise your hand?  I doubt anyone is raising their hand right now.  Jared Goff had his way with the Cardinals secondary yesterday.  Goff only threw the ball 26 times yesterday, but 21 of them were caught which is an extremely solid completion %.  Of his 26 attempts, 20 went to his wide receivers.  Amon-Ra St. Brown was the biggest beneficiary as he caught 8 of his 11 targets for 90 yards and a score.   

Running Back Touches

At this point, Jonathan Taylor has to be considered one of the front runners for the MVP.  Week in and week out he has been a stud.  He’s reached the 100 yard mark in 8 of his last 11 games.  Taylor also has touchdowns in all but his first 3 games of the year.  The Colts are in the thick of the playoff race right now and it’s 100% due to the play of Taylor. 

With the Lions top 2 running backs on the shelf this weekend, Craig Reynolds stepped up and boy did he step up.  He was second to only Taylor in week 15 with 26 carries.  He made the most of his carries as he finished with 112 yards on the ground.  In his two weeks carrying the ball Reynolds now has 195 yards on 37 carries.  Not bad for someone cut earlier in the year. 

Just moments before kick off the Dolphins announced that Duke Johnson would be the starting running back.  That 100% looked like the right call in week 15 as Johnson finished with 107 yards on 22 carries and 2 touchdowns.  While Gaskin owners I’m sure weren’t overly enthusiastic about the move, it worked for the Dolphins as they beat up on the lowly Jets.  Up next week is a much tougher task in the Saints and you have to think that the Dolphins will turn to a healthy Gaskin more.  

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

The Indianapolis Colts ran the ball almost 80% of the time in week 15.  Why not when you have the league’s most prolific back.  Of the Colts 51 plays this week, 39 were for runs compared to just 12 pass plays.  It worked for them this week as they surprisingly beat the Patriots 27-17.

Tampa Bay continued to throw often last night, even thought it just wasn’t working.  Tom Brady threw the ball 48 times and had only 26 completions.  It was just the second time all year that Brady was held without a passing touchdown.  A lot of it was due to the fact that the Buccaneers were decimated by injuries last night as they lost Fournette, Evans, and Godwin to injuries mid game.  That led to Tom Brady being shutout for the first time in 15 years.   

Inside Look Wrap Up

Week 15 was as weird of a weekend as we’ve seen in quite some time, and hope to see in the near future.  Covid wreaked havoc on the schedule as we now have a 2 game slate on a Tuesday and a Monday afternoon game.  We did have some solid performances as 5 backs rushed for over 100 yards and another 5 guys had over 100 receiving yards.  We still have a healthy amount of games left with 4 still to play. 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Week 14 edition of The Wire Report for the 2021 NFL season.  In this article I’ll be highlighting some of the top players that should still be available in your season long leagues.

The waiver wires are becoming more bare by the week.  This week is no exception.

Below are my top waiver wire targets:

Dontrelle Hilliard – Running Back –Tennessee Titans (35.9%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

There is somewhat of a running back by committee in Tennessee currently.  Carries are currently being split between Hilliard and D’onta Foreman.  Both Hilliard and Foreman showed off some wheels as they both surpassed the century mark. 

Although Hilliard had 7 less carries, he outrushed Foreman by 22 yards thanks to an impressive 68 yard touchdown at the end of the half.  If I had to pick between the two I would pick Hilliard.  Up until this weekend Foreman hadn’t really shown off much upside.  Hilliard is still available in more than 64% of the leagues on ESPN.  

JaMycal Hasty – Running Back – San Francisco 49ers (.5% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

This is a pick we’ll want to monitor throughout the week.  There is a very real chance that Hasty enters week 14 as the main back after injuries to both Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson.  If both of those guys miss Sunday’s contest Hasty will get plenty of volume.  If only one is out, while he will still get some volume, I won’t be as in love with the pickup.

Taysom Hill – Quarterback – New Orleans Saints (35.9% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

All we needed was one week of Hill at QB to show the upside that he brings to the table.  Yes, he had 4 interceptions this weekend.  That will be a part of his game.  But he also threw for 264 yards and rushed for 101. 

He provides a ton of point potential through the air and on the ground.  He’s still available in 65% of ESPN leagues which seems like way too many.

Russell Gage – Wide Receiver – Atlanta Falcons (25.2%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

Gage is really seeing an upward trend in target share.  Over the last 2 weeks he’s been targeted 19 times and now has at least 7 targets in 4 out of his last 5 games.  This past week Gage had by far his best performance of the year with 11 catches and 130 receiving yards.  Up next week is a matchup with a struggling Panthers team.  With Gage building a solid rapport with Ryan over the last 4 weeks, look for him to continue building on the momentum.

Tevin Coleman – Running Back – New York Jets (42%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

For the first time this year Coleman has back to back games with double digit carries.  With Michael Carter expected to miss another game this weekend it will still be Coleman time.  He’s done well with limited carries as this weekend he had over 5 yards per carry and the weekend before he was over 4 yards per carry.  As long as he continues to get the volume he should be someone you should consider if you’re down a running back this weekend. 

Jameson Crowder – Wide Receiver – New York Jets (25.1% Rostered in ESPN Leagues) 

You know the wavier wire is scarce when I’m recommending 2 Jets.  Now that Corey Davis is done for the year Crowder will be back to being one of the main weapons in the Jets offense.  Crowder has at least 4 receptions in 7 out of the 9 games he’s played this year.  With more targets being available now we can expect that number to climb.  The Jets get to take on a Saints team that just got torched by the Cowboys.  I’m not saying the Jets will win, but they should up some points and Crowder will be a part of it.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 13 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 13 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
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Tonight’s Thursday night matchup brings us to New Orleans with a matchup between the Saints (5-6) and the Cowboys (7-4).  The Cowboys look to bounce back tonight after 2 losing straight.  For the Saints, they’re handing the offense over to Taysom Hill tonight who makes his first start at QB of the season.  The Saints come into this matchup riding a 4 game losing streak.  Things have not gone well for them since Jameis Winston went down. 

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Dak Prescott – 270.5 Passing Yards – More

Dak Prescott should have one of his top weapons back tonight.  After sitting out the last 2 games, Cooper was activated from the Covid-19 list yesterday.  Prescott now has his full arsenal of weapons healthy. Well as healthy as you can be for the tail end of the football season.  For the first time in several weeks he’ll have Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz to throw to. 

We’ve seen Prescott shine at times this year and tonight should be one of those times.  He’s hit the 271 yards mark in 4 out of his last 6 weeks.  In what I expect to be a close game tonight, Prescott should be able to focus enough on his passing game to hit his 271 yards.  I’m going with the More side for Prescott.

Taysom Hill – 180.5 Passing Yards – More

The Saints have finally made the switch at QB to Taysom Hill.  With Hill finally healthy enough to play again he’ll have a chance to start at QB for the first time since Week 14 of last season against the Eagles.  Hill started 4 games at QB last season and did fairly well.  In 3 of his 4 starts he easily surpassed tonight’s goal of 181 yards.  He had 233, 232, and 291 yards. 

In the one game that he didn’t get to the 181 yards last season, it was more due to game script as the Saints destroyed the Broncos 31-3 in Week 12.  Only once this season have the Cowboys given up less than the 181 yards goal for Hill tonight.  Look for Hill to easily surpass his goal tonight.  I’m going with the More here as well.  

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Dak Prescott vs. Taysom Hill (+90.5)

I’ve highlighted in the More or Less section that both QB’s should hit their number tonight.  That said, both QB’s have a very different number and skill set.  While Hill has shown some upside with his arm, he also tends to run the ball quite a bit for a QB which somewhat lowers his pass yardage ceiling.  He did pass for 291 yards in one game last season, but that was an outlier.  His ceiling is closer to his other two games where he finished in the low 230 yard range and that’s where I think he ends up tonight.

If we look at Prescott, his ceiling is much higher and he’s facing a Saints secondary that has given up close to 3k passing yards through their first 11 games this season.  This is the type of game that has ceiling written all over it for Prescott.  Even though MKF Is giving 90.5 passing yards to Hill in this one, I like Prescott tonight.  Prescott for the win in this one. 

Alvin Kamara vs. Ezekiel Elliot (+11.5)

As of writing this, Kamara is still listed as questionable.  I’m going to write this under the assumption that he’s playing.  In the few games before he was injured Kamara struggled producing on the ground.  In those 3 games he had 51, 61, and 50 rushing yards. 

If we look at the Cowboy’s defense, they’ve started to show some cracks against the run.  Over the last 6 weeks they’ve given up over 100 yards rushing 4 times.  Through the first 5 weeks of the year they hadn’t given up more than 74 in any game.  If Kamara proves to be healthy tonight, he’s looking at a solid chance for a rebound game. 

Switching gears to Ezekiel Elliot, he gets an extremely tough matchup tonight.  Only Washington and Tampa Bay have given up less rushing yards to running backs this season.  They’ve given up more than 80 rushing yards to running backs just twice this season. 

Even if we had a healthy Elliot, I wouldn’t love him here so a banged up Elliot has me ready to gag in this matchup.  Especially knowing that Prescott has all his receiving weapons available to him tonight.  Coming into this matchup, granted he’s been banged up, Elliot has been downright bad on the ground.  He hasn’t surpassed 52 rushing yards since he had 69 yards against the Patriots in week 6. 

As it stands right now, I like Kamara to have more pure rushing yards tonight.  Even though Elliot gets the bonus of 11.5 yards tonight, he doesn’t do enough on the ground to get close to Kamara. Kamara for the win!

Good luck tonight and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Week 13 edition of The Wire Report for the 2021 NFL season.  In this article I’ll be highlighting some of the top players that should still be available in your season long leagues.

We’re at the point in the year where the waiver wire in most leagues is going to be slim pickings.  This week is no exception.  There isn’t too much out there but I tried to find the best available players still unowned in many leagues.

Below are my top waiver wire targets:

Dontrelle Hilliard – Running Back –Tennessee Titans (27.9%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

There is somewhat of a running back by committee in Tennessee currently.  Carries are currently being split between Hilliard and D’onta Foreman.  Both Hilliard and Foreman showed off some wheels as they both surpassed the century mark.  Although Hilliard had 7 less carries, he outrushed Foreman by 22 yards thanks to an impressive 68 yard touchdown at the end of the first half.  If I had to pick between the two I would pick Hilliard.  Up until this weekend Foreman hadn’t really shown off much upside.  Hilliard is still available in more than 72% of the leagues on ESPN.  

Alexander Mattison – Running Back – Minnesota Vikings (33.8% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

With Dalvin Cook as their lead back, the Vikings haven’t had a real big need for Mattison to step into a useful role this season.  That said, when Cook’s been out Mattison has stepped up big when called upon.  In both weeks 3 and 5 when Cook was out, Mattison was the lead back and ran for over 100 yards in both games.  Now that there’s a good chance that Cook misses some time Mattison should get another chance to shine.  He’s only rostered in 34% of ESPN leagues currently so there’s a good chance he’s free in your league.  If he is, he’s without a doubt an important pickup this weekend.

Taysom Hill – Quarterback – New Orleans Saints (2.3% Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

There is a very real chance that the Saints finally make the switch and appoint Taysom Hill as their starting QB for week 13 against the Dallas Cowboys.  If Hill does indeed start at QB this weekend he makes for a fantastic option.  In his few starts at QB he’s shown that he is a duel threat as he had multiple games last year with at least 2 rushing touchdowns.  If he’s fully healthy you should consider grabbing him for this week.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling – Wide Receiver – Green Bay Packers (12.2%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

MVS now has been targeted 19 times over the past 2 games.  Due to his deep ball tendencies he’s a high risk high reward player and has a low catch % due to those tendencies.  If Cobb should miss any time with his groin injury MVS should start to play a more consistent role in this offense.  As long he’s getting targets, I’m going to target him on the waiver wire.  He’s still highly available in ESPN leagues. 

Kendrick Bourne – Wide Receiver – New England Patriots (15.3%  Rostered in ESPN Leagues)

Bourne had one of his best games of the season this past weekend.  For the first time this season he had multiple touchdowns.  If we look at his year as a whole, he’s been the model of consistency.  When he’s targeted he almost always catches the ball.  Over this last 4 games he’s been targeted 18 times and only has 2 missed catches.  He’s building a great rapport with a rookie QB in Mac Jones that is really coming into his own.  If you’re looking for a solid receiver, Bourne is your guy. 

Jack Doyle – Tight End – Indianapolis Colts (1% Rostered in ESPN Leagues) 

Throughout his career Carson Wentz has always had a solid Tight End at his disposal.  In Philly he had Zach Ertz.  In Indianapolis he has the veteran Jack Doyle.  While the 2 aren’t in the same class in regards to their talent level, Doyle is showing some nice chemistry with Wentz.  He now has 3 straight games with at least 5 targets.  This weekend’s 7 targets were the most he’s had since week 2 against the Rams when he had 8.  His 81 yards were also a season high.  If you’re in the market for a new tight end, grab Jack Doyle.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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The Thursday night showdown marks game three today, and we’ve got the picks to help you win in the Week 12 NFL DFS showdown contests on Thanksgiving night!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week 12 NFL DFS is already underway, but toni...

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Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.

Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.

GPPDavante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.

What a cool-looking card — and not too expensive!

Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.

If you look closely, you can see some minor edge issues that could prevent this card from grading a Gem Mint 10.

New Orleans Saints

CashDrew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.

GPPAlvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.

The 2017 Donruss set is filled with big rookies, including Kamara, Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.

Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CashTom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.

Is this Brady rookie card worth $250K in a PSA 10? There are only seven graded that high on the PSA registry.

GPPRonald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.

Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.

Los Angeles Rams

Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.

GPP Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.

PuntVan Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf

GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson

Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Christmas Day showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $12,900, FD $12,000)

FD/DK Value: Latavius Murray (DK $4,800 FLEX, FD $10,000), Irv Smith, Jr. (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $7,500)

DK Punts: Marquez Callaway (DK $200 FLEX), Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,600)

Welcome to a special Christmas Day Showdown edition of the preview!

The chalk in this game will be mostly a battle of RBs, with Dalvin Cook having the edge based on his logged 2020 ceiling of 50 points and his matchup-proof reputation. The red one in the matchup rank will scare a few folks off, so I’m still buying in all formats – looking at about 50% ownership as the CPT on FD and slightly less than that on DK. Alvin Kamara could be a sneaky pivot, although Cook is the safer option in cash games. On DK, it will take some finagling to squeeze both Cook and Kamara in, but I’m going to try. Latavius Murray still gets his fair share of touches, too – and he’s facing his old team for you Narrative Street whizbangs.

With Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, we can look to the Saints WRs and TEs for value, paying particular attention to Emmanuel Sanders, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for a reason to type out his name) and Juwan Johnson. Keep any eye on the status of Marquez Callaway, who was just activated from IR. He could be a great value if active, which would slightly ding both Humphrey and Johnson.

I don’t mind Josh Hill’s minimum price in like 2/10 GPPs, and the right kicker and QB – be it a somewhat rusty Drew Brees or the always compelling Kirk Cousins could round out a team with plenty of upside.

Justin Jefferson has gone a couple of weeks without a receiving TD, so I think he’ll notch another one, but his price point makes Adam Thielen the better value with a similar ceiling, as he’s about $600 cheaper on DK.

I’ll have some shares of the Saints DST in some builds that focus on Cook/Kamara/Saints value WR/TE and avoid Cousins and the two big Minnesota WRs, but the Vikings, especially since the Vikings have allowed DSTs to score about two thirds more fantasy points than the average opposing DST over the last three weeks.

Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Dalvin Cook and Kamara in GPPs, preferably together.

DON’T: Forget about the Saints DST in some builds. I’d shooting for about 35-40 percent GPP ownership.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Alvin Kamara
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Adam Thielen
  5. Justin Jefferson
  6. Kirk Cousins
  7. Latavius Murray
  8. Irv Smith, Jr.
  9. Emmanuel Sanders
  10. Jared Cook
  11. Saints DST (bump up three spots for GPPs)
  12. Lil’Jordan Humphrey
  13. Juwan Johnson
  14. Marquez Callaway (if active)
  15. Chad Beebe
  16. Will Lutz
  17. Dan Bailey
  18. Tyler Conklin
  19. Vikings DST
  20. Taysom Hill
  21. Josh Hill
  22. Adam Trautman
  23. Ameer Abdullah
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The NFL DFS season continues with Chargers-Saints on MNF, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Alvin Kamara (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Drew Brees (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Justin Herbert (DK $15,300, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #2: Latavius Murray (DK $7,200, FD $8,000)

Some notable injuries: The story of this game will likely be told by who is available on defense for the Saints, who are one of the best defenses in the league when healthy. The injury-riddled Saints have already ruled out CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and CB Justin Hardee (hamstring), and both DE Marcus Davenport (toe), and playmaking CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) turned in limited practices leading up to this game. DT Sheldon Rankins made an appearance on the injury report and didn’t practice on Saturday because of a thumb injury, and he’s also listed as questionable.

The Saints offensive line has some injuries too (G Andrus Peat and T Ryan Ramczyk), which could affect their RB usage in attacking the Chargers run defense. If Ramczyk plays they might pound the right side more since Joey Bosa (triceps) didn’t look great in Week 4.

On the Chargers side, we have rookie RB Joshua Kelley and the recently activated Justin Jackson handling backfield duties while Austin Ekeler (hamstring) recovers on IR. QB Justin Herbert seems ready for prime time, and he’ll be asked to shoulder a heavy load on Monday night. He makes for a solid contrarian captain pivot in this showdown.

The obvious chalk at captain will be Alvin Kamara, who has 45-point upside given the 1.5x multiplier and the fact that Michel Thomas (ankle, coach’s decision) is still out. Latavius Murray is a viable contrarian CPT choice as well, since the Saints could try to salt this thing away with traditional north-south running and goal line plunges if they jump out to a large lead.

There’s still a case to be made for Drew Brees at CPT in what may be his final game facing his old team, and that’s an interesting narrative if not a likely positive outcome. There’s some inefficiency to his game lately and the Saints would be silly not to capitalize on their strong rush offense.

Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith are both high-risk options but should be sprinkled throughout your lineups with the news coming this weekend that Thomas is being disciplined and kept out of action tonight. I kind of like Jared Cook (groin, probable) for his two-TD upside in GPPs at what should be relatively low ownership.

If you’re stacking Herbert with Chargers WRs, you’ll be looking at Keenan Allen and company (Hunter Henry should really eat this week, Mike Williams is questionable but trending upward, and Jalen Guyton could even be an option) in what could be smash spot against a battered Saints secondary.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on defenses, the sub-2K on DK players (not a lot there) or the Saints passing game tonight, though it’s a viable contrarian play to stack Brees with Cook and a WR if you’re entering large-field MMEs.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Ignore the effectiveness of Latavius Murray this season. The Saints are a different offensive team now and Murray’s bruising style has been one of their strengths,

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Justin Herbert
  3. Latavius Murray
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Hunter Henry
  7. Joshua Kelley
  8. Tre’Quan Smith
  9. Jared Cook (groin, probable)
  10.  Emmanuel Sanders
  11.  Justin Jackson
  12.  Will Lutz
  13.  Mike Williams (hamstring, questionable)
  14.  Jared Guyton
  15.  Michael Badgley
  16.  Saints DST
  17.  Chargers DST
  18.  Taysom Hill
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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Drew Brees (DK $15,900, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Josh Jacobs (DK $14,400, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #2: Emmanuel Sanders (DK $13,200, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (DK $11,100, FD $11,500)

Predicting showdown ownership in NFL and NBA is always tricky, because of the last-minute adjustments that folks tend to make reacting to late-breaking news (I did it just last night in the Lakers game by removing Rajon Rondo from all my showdown lineups in the minutes before lock). But I have a feeling folks will be starting a lot of lineups with Drew Brees up top and filling the rest in with affordable options. It’s certainly a viable strategy this week given the softer pricing and absence of Michael Thomas (ankle), who’s already been ruled out.

I will likely be using Josh Jacobs at MVP in my builds, however, since he has the most guaranteed touches and what I feel is the most upside in this game as a true workhorse back. It’s not a contrarian play, but it’s a way to differentiate your lineups (especially on FanDuel) and get some built-in variance in a format that requires it.

This is a game the Raiders can win, especially if they dominate time of possession, and we don’t often see the Saints without their top WR and the threat of his 5-15 catches per game. If we start with Jacobs (rather than Brees or Alvin Kamara), it’s a lot easier to fit the main offensive cogs from both teams.

Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and Darren Waller are also MVP options, but the odds are against them dominating the game enough to warrant more than some one-off builds.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Drew Brees as your MVP with no Saints position players and the Raiders DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though we can make the case for including more Saints positional punts given the injury to Thomas.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Jacobs
  2. Drew Brees
  3. Alvin Kamara
  4. Emmanuel Sanders
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Derek Carr
  7. Jared Cook
  8. Tre’Quan Smith
  9. Bryan Edwards
  10. Will Lutz
  11. Latavius Murray
  12. Henry Ruggs (questionable, knee)
  13. Saints DST
  14. Hunter Renfrow
  15. Daniel Carlson
  16. Taysom Hill
  17. Raiders DST
  18. Nelson Agholor
  19. Deonte Harris
  20. DeVontae Booker
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